后危机视野下福建省经济格局演变及其影响机制

［目的］后危机时代是目前我国各地区经济发展面对的一个巨大变量，也是近年来区域经济发展关注的焦点话题。［方法］选取福建省县域经济的5项指标作为解释变量，利用探索性空间分析方法和地理加权回归模型，对2010—2015年福建省县域经济格局及其驱动机制进行探讨。［结果］（1）总体上看，福建省经济空间格局变化较小，呈现东南高西北低的态势，重心向福州、莆田地区转移，省内发展均质化与极化现象并存；（2）产业结构调整与城镇化水平提升主导省内经济重心在东西方向上的移动，两者的空间格局具有相似性；（3）创新投入与金融零售业的变化主导了经济重心南北向的移动，其与各市县的经济基础和产业调整政策密切相关。［结论］在后危机时代福建省需根据市场特征推进区域协同发展、实现产业结构调整、促进区域共同富裕； 地方经济政策应与自身经济发展特征相适应，实现区域经济可持续发展。     

浅析城市轨道交通桥梁抗震设计

城市轨道交通当前已经成为国内各大城市的主要交通工具之一,其抗震性能对于当地居民的人身安全、交通秩序以及经济发展效益都有着极为关键的战略含义.在地震灾害下,怎么确保城市轨道交通系统的结构稳定、行驶安全是城市轨道交通系统建设工作的关键性难题,为此,本文对其抗震设计中的一些关键问题开展相关论述,希望能够为相关人员提供参考.     

National response strategies and marketing innovations during the COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, different nations have adopted a variety of response strategies to fight and contain the new coronavirus. Such national response strategies can be classified into three categories based on their underlying philosophy: strict control with unlimited resources, relentless contribution with limited resources, and rough rationality with limited resources. We discuss the philosophies, characteristics, and performances of the three response strategies and when they should be adopted. We also examine what marketing innovation strategies enterprises should adopt to survive and grow their businesses in both the short and long term. This study provides important strategic implications for national policymakers and enterprises on the use of response strategies as well as marketing innovation tactics and strategies to be used both during and after the pandemic.     

Strategic Flexibility in New High‐Technology Ventures

Strategic flexibility is a vital capability for new ventures to update their strategies in a timely manner. However, the role of external knowledge sources in new ventures’ endeavours to develop strategic flexibility are unclear. Drawing on the knowledge‐based and relational views, we explore the effect of two sources of external knowledge: new product development (NPD) alliances, representing tightly coupled sources, and loosely coupled sources such as industry associations. Our field study of 148 high‐tech ventures found that the extent to which firms utilize knowledge from NPD alliances has a curvilinear relationship with strategic flexibility, whereas the extent to which firms utilize loosely coupled sources has a positive linear relationship with strategic flexibility. We also found that in new ventures, decentralization of decision‐making and institutional support enhance knowledge integration, positively moderating these relationships.     

绍兴市土地利用时空变化研究

[目的]探讨经济发达地区土地利用变化时空规律,为城市发展提供合理土地利用政策,同时优化土地利用结构以支持经济可持续发展。[方法]通过遥感影像获取长时间序列的土地利用数据,探讨近30多年来绍兴市的土地利用变化,进一步利用土地利用动态变化模型,对绍兴市土地利用变化过程、趋势、变化轨迹进行了深入分析。[结果](1)绍兴市土地利用在1980~2000年相对稳定,在2000年后变化强度逐年增强,2005~2015年土地利用转化量增多和类型多样。绍兴市东北部平原和县区核心区域是经济发达地区土地利用变化的活跃区域,主要是其他类型土地向建设用地转移;(2)1980~2015年绍兴市土地利用变化轨迹主要受到人口增长和GDP增长的影响。[结论]城市化的发展和人口的迅速增长,使城市人口和土地面积迅速增加,造成城市边缘的农业用地转化成了建设用地。经济的发展、科技的进步及政府政策的制定,改变了人们的生活和工作方式,进而影响土地利用类型。     

省域尺度下不同时序景观指数集与粒度效应分析

[目的]景观格局变化是景观生态学中的热点问题。研究省域尺度下不同时序景观指数的粒度效应、选取计算景观指数所需的适宜粒度范围并筛选出代表性景观指数集对分析景观格局变化具有重要意义。[方法]以安徽省土地覆被为研究对象,以2000年、2005年、2010年的Landsat TM遥感影像为主要数据源,采用土地利用转移矩阵对安徽省土地覆被的转移数量与方向进行研究;通过设置不同的栅格大小研究景观指数的粒度效应并选取合适的粒度范围;基于相关性分析、因子分析与敏感性分析,筛选出代表性景观指数集。[结果](1) 2000—2010年安徽省的土地覆被始终以耕地为主,其次是林地与人工表面;人工表面的增加是建立在耕地面积减少基础之上的,在10年间共有超过3 200km2的耕地转化为人工表面;(2)景观指数存在粒度效应,粒度变化会对景观指数的计算结果产生影响;省域尺度下计算景观指数所需的合适粒度范围为100～125m;(3)研究安徽省景观格局变化的代表性景观指数有4个,分别为最大斑块指数、景观形状指数、平均斑块面积、香农多样性指数。[结论]计算安徽省景观指数的适宜粒度范围为100～125m,安徽省的代表性景观指数集为最大斑块指数、景观形状指数、平均斑块面积、香农多样性指数,为进一步研究景观格局变化及驱动机制提供了依据。     

The Effect of Foreign Entry Regulation on Downstream Productivity: Microeconomic Evidence from China*

We examine the cross‐industry influence of foreign entry regulation (based on a novel measure) on the productivity outcomes of downstream firms through input–output linkages in China. In contrast to the significant liberalization of the manufacturing sector, restrictions on the service sector remained stringent over the period 1997–2007. We find a powerful depressant effect of foreign entry barriers imposed on the upstream manufacturing and service industries on the productivity of downstream manufacturers, and this effect depends on a number of industry‐ and firm‐specific features. Our research calls for further investment liberalization (particularly in the service sector) in China.     

Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State

A growing literature finds evidence that flood risk salience varies over time, spiking directly following a flood and then falling off individuals' cognitive radar in the following years. In this article, we provide new evidence of salience exploiting a hurricane cluster impacting Florida that was preceded and followed by periods of unusual calm. Utilizing residential property sales across the state from 2002 through 2012, our main estimate finds a salience impact of ?8%, on average. The salience effect persists when we base estimation only on spatial variation in prices to limit confounding from other simultaneous changes due to shifting hedonic equilibria over time. These effects range from housing prices decreases of 5.4–12.3% depending on the year of sale. Understanding flood risk salience has important implications for flood insurance and disaster policy, the benefits transfer literature, and, more broadly, our understanding of natural disaster resilience. JEL Classification: Q51, Q54, R21     

禽流感危机下肉鸡产业市场状态分析*——基于互联网大数据和MS-VAR模型

[目的]为了有效应对禽流感冲击、维持肉鸡产业稳定健康发展。[方法]基于互联网大数据构建了禽流感舆情指数,选取2012年1月至2017年3月周度数据,通过MS-VAR模型分析了禽流感危机下肉鸡市场状态的转换特征以及不同市场状态下产业链价格传导关系。[结果]2012年以来可将肉鸡产业市场状态划分为危机状态和正常状态,肉鸡产业市场在两个市场状态下转换频繁;肉鸡产业危机市场状态和正常市场状态平均持续期分别为4.65周和9.05周;肉鸡市场在区制转移概率上存在明显的非对称特征;肉雏鸡、活鸡和白条鸡价格之间在危机状态下相关性小于正常市场状态下相关性;不同市场状态下肉鸡产业链价格传导存在差异;肉鸡产业市场在危机状态下不稳定程度明显增加。[结论]提出了加大对禽流感疫情的监测以及疫情处理能力,密切关注公众禽流感舆情动态变动情况,做好舆情引导,加强禽流感疫情科学知识的宣传,增强公众对禽流感的认知等对策建议。     

How the Internet Promotes China's Exports: A Firm‐level Perspective

The development of information and communications technology (ICT), particularly the Internet, has reduced trade costs. However, it remains unclear whether these reduced costs are reflected in the “extensive margins” of firms’ exports (which refer to the probability of firms exporting) or the “intensive margins” (which refer to the value of firms’ export). To test this, we used the concepts of information cost and binary margins, an augmented trade model of firm heterogeneity, a two‐stage Heckman estimation, and data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey of Chinese firms in 2012. The results revealed that reduced trade costs from the use of ICT were positively related to extensive margins but that the connection with intensive margins was not significant. The results lead to the conclusion that reduced information costs related to a firm's exporting behavior were primarily reflected in variable trade costs. This study offers theoretical and empirical evidence for China's policies towards the Internet, which are relevant for the export of manufactured goods. The government should encourage the use of ICT to enhance firms’ export opportunities while facing current trade policy uncertainty.