Should farmers invest in financial assets as a risk management strategy? Some evidence from New Zealand*

This study explores the potential for risk reduction by New Zealand farmers through the diversification of their farm asset portfolios to include financial investments such as ordinary industrial shares, government bonds and bank bills. Low correlations between rates of return on farm and these financial assets suggest that significant reduction of income variability might follow their inclusion in farmers’ portfolios. Stochastic efficiency analysis is used to analyse alternative portfolios of ordinary shares, government bonds and bank bills and New Zealand farmland, using coefficients of absolute risk aversion derived from a negative exponential utility function. The results suggest that those farmers showing high degrees of risk aversion would gain utility by including financial assets in their portfolios. Deregulation of the New Zealand economy in the 1980s appeared to reduce the potential gains from diversification. Bonds rather than ordinary shares are the main contributors to portfolios which maximise utility for individuals classified as ‘somewhat’ risk averse.     

关于发展我国农村土地银行的思考

土地问题是我国农村发展的关键问题。发展农村土地银行,通过资本化来实现土地流转,推动农地适度规模经营,促进农业产业化。文章阐述了土地银行的内涵,构建博弈模型分析了发展土地银行时农户、贷地企业与土地银行之间的关系,最后提出了发展我国土地银行的建议。     

水银行理论研究及实践应用进展

水银行作为一种更灵活的水资源调配与管理模式,能够有效弥补水权交易市场的运行局限。如何将水银行从理论层面的认知转换为实践层面的有效应用,已成为学术界关注的研究热点与难点。通过系统梳理水银行理论与实践应用进展,分析了水银行的理论内涵与运行机制,总结了国内外实践模式与应用经验,并在此基础上,进一步分析了我国水银行实施的现实基础,据此提出应从水银行的运行模式、支撑机制和风险管理3个维度开展其创新性研究和适应性实践。     

美国加州“水银行”模式对我国南水北调水资源配置的启示

简介美国加州“水银行”的水权交易模式。提出:借鉴现代银行业的运行机制,并结合受水区经济社会发展现状,在南水北调工程的水资源配置中,建立规范化、组织化和现代化的南水北调“水银行”水权交易模式,并采取相应的政府宏观调控措施,以切实体现南水北调工程的“国家宏观调控、准市场运作、企业化经营、用水户参与”的基本思路,符合国情,易于管理,可操作性强。科学决策提供参考。     

信贷政策调整和房地产价格的动态关系--基于VEC模型的分析

文章从理论角度分析了银行信贷同房产价格间的关系和作用机制,并在此基础上利用2010年1月-2019年6月全国房产价格月度数据建立VEC模型进行实证研究。结果表明,银行信贷和房产价格具有双向因果关系:房价波动对信贷波动具有显著影响,而信贷波动对房价波动影响相对有限。文章认为房价波动通过短期信贷、抵押物价值和银行资本金三种渠道来影响信贷供给。因此,政府在调整信贷政策时需要考虑房价波动的影响。     

创业者特质、资源拼凑与新创林业企业绩效

利用结构方程模型,根据121个新创林业企业调查所得数据,分析模糊忍受度、内部控制源、成就需要以及风险倾向这4个创业者特质对新创林业企业绩效的直接影响和间接影响。结果显示:受调查的新创林业企业在绩效方面还存在较大进步空间,新创林业企业的资源拼凑能力与实践较为有限;创业者的模糊忍受度特质和内部控制源特质对新创林业企业绩效具有显著的正向影响,并且模糊忍受度特质和内部控制源特质能通过资源拼凑对新创林业企业绩效产生间接的正向影响;创业者的成就需要特质仅能以资源拼凑为中介对新创林业企业绩效产生间接的正向影响;创业者的风险倾向特质对新创林业企业绩效未呈现出显著的影响。因此,创业者应重视创业者特质对新创林业企业绩效的影响,并强化使用资源拼凑策略能力;政府应帮助创业者提升资源拼凑能力,并引导具有创业者特质的创业者投入到林业创新创业中,提高新创林业企业的存活率和绩效。     

国有森工企业资本结构优化实证研究

以国有森工企业为研究对象,分析森工企业资本结构的现状及问题,运用主成分分析和回归分析的方法,构建国有森工企业资本结构优化模型。通过实证分析表明,充分利用国有森工企业的天然优势,大力整合林业产业链,以林地、林业资产等为抵押物,拓展拓宽林业资本融资渠道,提升企业成长性,增强盈利性是优化森工企业资本结构的有效途径。     

Endogenous institutional innovation and agroindustrialization on the Peruvian coast

This paper presents an analysis of endogenous institutional innovations that have recently emerged in the agroindustrial zone of Chincha, on the coast of Peru. These innovations include: (1) contracts between agroindustrial firms and large farmers, introduced by the firms themselves to assure timely delivery and compliance with strict requirements implied by the emerging demanding quality and safety standards for agro‐export of processed asparagus; (2) management services exchanged for labor supervision and land collateral in share tenancy contracts between a management company and “farmer companies” of small cotton farmers. These contracts introduced by the management company illustrate those described theoretically by Eswaran and Kotwal [Am. Econ. Rev. 75 (3), 352–367]. The nature and importance of these institutional changes are twofold: (1) They were induced institutional innovations driven by the requirements of agroindustrialization itself. (2) Together they had ambiguous employment and income impacts (tending to the negative). On the one hand, the emergence of asparagus and firm‐farm contracts reduced employment through exclusion of small farms and shifts to capital‐intensive crops. On the other hand, the reinforcement of smallholder cotton and the emergence of farmer companies increased employment and income of smallholders. The institutional innovation allowed them to reduce risk and increase profits and thus access some of the benefits of agroindustrialization and globalization. While processing firm‐farm contracts are common in Peru, as is the presence of NGOs bringing subsidized credit, the private management firm innovation is rare and new in Peru and apparently also in the region, and of great interest. In fact, policymakers and NGOs have recently discovered that this innovation is taking place and are asking hard questions about whether this innovation can and will be diffused. The interest in the private for‐profit institutional change is sharpened by growing doubts about how economically sustainable and widespread a response NGO help can be to small farmers in maintaining their participation in income‐enhancing agroindustrialization. Moreover, with changes in land laws and markets the fluidity of the situation is apparent, with agroindustrial firms even starting to ask themselves whether contracts with large farms are necessary and best.     

Risk aversion in agricultural water management investments in Northern Ghana: experimental evidence

Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) is one of the regions in the world most affected by food price volatility and production variability. Poor small‐scale farmers in this region are particularly vulnerable to this variability. As a result, households may be reluctant to adopt new agricultural water management (AWM) technologies when they involve more risk than what they mitigate. Despite risk's role in AWM investments, there have been few attempts to estimate the magnitude and nature of risk aversion in relation to this type of farm decisions. To partially close this gap, this article uses an experimental approach applied to 137 households in Northern Ghana. We find that more than 70% of households are moderately or slightly risk averse. This contrasts with other studies in SSA, where most household decision‐makers exhibit severe to extreme risk aversion. We also find that households that stand to lose as well as gain something from participation in games are less risk averse than households playing gains‐only games. This result suggests that most farmers’ current wealth put them at risk of falling into a poverty trap. Thus, the losses from the riskiest investments on AWM technologies may fall more heavily on the poor, suggesting that additional efforts be given to the creation of viable insurance mechanisms.     

论不动产抵押制度的完善

用不动产进行抵押可以将债权人的风险降到最低程度,因此债权人非常愿意接受抵押权作为担保,以给迫切需要资金的企业家提供资金。而企业家同时可以用其不动产进行抵押融资与进行使用收益。比较各国抵押权制度,我国不动产抵押制度尚有不尽合理之处,需进行三方面的完善:①设定抵押权的客体的限制不应当超过对标的物流通的限制;②允许抵押物重复抵押;③允许房地分离抵押。     

Assessing the Financial Performance of Forestry-Related Investment Vehicles: Capital Asset Pricing Model vs. Arbitrage Pricing Theory

Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and arbitrage pricing theory (APT) are used to assess the financial performance of eight forestry-related investment vehicles. Although results from APT support previous findings from CAPM about timberland investments, three bodies of evidence show that APT findings are more robust. The major conclusions are (a) institutional timberland investments and timberland limited partnerships have a low risk level and excess returns; (b) forestry industry companies have not earned risk-adjusted returns, and the performance of medium forest industry firms is worse than that of large firms; (c) stumpage price does not resemble the return generation process of timberland investments; and (d) lumber futures have little excess return.     

林权抵押贷款风险管理探讨——以江西省崇义县为例

对江西省崇义县林权抵押贷款风险管理进行探讨,分析了林权抵押中权属不清、价值评估、资产变现、抵押物管理等风险因素;通过博弈方法分析了林权抵押贷款风险管理的必要性;分析了林权抵押贷款流程的风险控制,以降低林权抵押贷款风险。     

林农贷款为什么难?——基于动态博弈模型的分析

为解释林农贷款难的原因,构建不完全信息动态博弈模型,对林农借款时与银行的博弈关系进行剖析;构建完全信息动态博弈模型,对林农还款时与银行的博弈关系进行剖析。结果表明:在林业信贷市场中,由于林农贷款期望净收益为正,无论是低风险林农还是高风险林农均愿意向银行申请贷款;但由于林业投资的长周期与高风险性,林农与银行之间存在信息不对称,高风险林农伪装成本低,林农缺乏合适抵押物,林农贷款抵押物处置市场发育滞后,以及政府干预等因素影响,银行给林农贷款的意愿并不强。因此,建议完善政府担保机制、加强林业信用体系、推进森林保险体系建设和培育农村林权流转市场。     

Formal mining investments and artisanal mining in southern Madagascar: Effects of spontaneous reactions and adjustment policies on poverty alleviation

The main political concern in the southern areas of Madagascar is poverty alleviation. To alleviate poverty in the area, the government has chosen to enforce adjustment policies of the World Bank Group. According to the World Bank Group's argument, while artisanal mining is supposed to create significant economic, social and environmental problems, large-scale mining investment results in economic and social prosperity. This paper focuses principally on a re-analysis of the debates regarding the relationship between artisanal and large-scale mining and poverty alleviation in developing countries. Further, the paper offers an alternative viewpoint on these issues based on the example of Madagascar. In the last decade, Madagascar has experienced a significant increase in mining activity. Towards the end of the 90s, informal and artisanal mining emerged as one of the most important economic activities of the area with the development of the Ilakaka frontier. At the same time, foreign investments began to benefit from adjustment policies implemented by the government, and large-scale mining operations also commenced. As the local socio-economic system was deeply affected by these developments, it is wise to monitor the effects of each type of mining operation on poverty alleviation. On the one hand, it appears that governance insufficiency has hampered possibilities for broader economic prosperity through large-scale mining investments. On the other hand, while artisanal mining is frequently condemned by scholars, the negative comments seem to be overly pessimistic, as this activity can be demonstrated to provide considerable economic opportunities for both the native and migrant populations.     

非利息收入对农村商业银行经营绩效研究——基于面板数据模型

利用中国5家农村商业银行2008-2018年的面板数据,来分析非利息收入占比对经营绩效的影响。结果表明,我国农村商业银行的非利息收入对总资产收益率的影响较为显著,非利息收入占比提升对经营绩效有较大负向影响。农村商业银行应该在稳健提升非利息收入占比的同时合理控制成本,注重非利息收益和成本的协调,优化业务结构,从而促使非利息收入对商业银行产生更大的良性影响。     

Population growth,agricultural intensification,induced innovation and natural resource sustainability: An application of neoclassical growth theory

Using a simple neoclassical type growth model including both man-made and natural capital as inputs to production, the theoretical basis for a U-shaped relationship between agricultural intensification and farm household investment in renewable resource capital is established. As development of technology, infrastructure, or markets increase the relative return to investment in man-made capital over natural capital, resource depletion occurs as man-made capital is substituted for lower return natural capital. Once returns are equalized, both man-made and natural capital are accumulated. If labor and these forms of capital are complementary, the output effects outweigh the substitution effects in the long run, leading to net accumulation of natural as well as man-made capital as a result of such technological or market development. Population growth also induces investment in both man-made and natural resource capital in the long run by increasing their marginal products. However, population growth causes declining per capita levels of both natural and man-made capital and production per capita in the long run, if technology is fixed and decreasing returns to scale. The model thus supports the Boserupian argument of induced intensification and resource improvement, as well as the Malthusian argument of the impoverishing effects of population growth. However, population growth may also induce development of infrastructure, markets, and technological or institutional innovation by reducing the fixed costs per capita of these changes, though these developments may not occur automatically. Government policies can play a large role in affecting whether these potential benefits of population growth are realized. In addition, credit policies may reduce resource degradation caused by substitution of man-made for natural capital, by allowing farmers to accumulate man-made capital (such as fertilizers) without depleting their natural capital. Policies to internalize the external environmental costs of using man-made capital will reduce both types of capital and production, indicating a clear trade-off between addressing environmental concerns on the one hand and reducing poverty and promoting resource conservation investments on the other. By contrast, internalizing the external benefits of investments in resources increases wealth and production per capita in the long run. The ‘intertemporal externality’ due to a higher private than social rate of time preference does not justify interventions to promote investments in resource capital; rather it argues for the promotion of savings and investment in general.     

土地使用权抵押贷款风险分析

研究目的:提出防范土地使用权抵押贷款风险的策略。研究方法:综合分析法与比较分析法。研究结果:(1)从贷款抵押类型、抵押期限、土地使用权价值变化、抵押物瑕疵等方面综合分析了土地使用权抵押贷款的潜在风险;(2)土地使用权抵押贷款风险种类多样,日益凸现。研究结论:通过加强银行部门对国家政策、经济形势分析预报,合理确定抵押地块贷款类型和期限,政府部门应完善土地登记制度,防范土地使用权抵押贷款风险。     

林权抵押贷款的金融风险与防范策略——基于银行信贷风险视角

基于金融机构信贷风险的视角,从林权抵押贷款的法规制度风险、资产保全风险、资产处置风险、资产评估风险、信誉风险的角度分析林权抵押贷款存在的金融风险,从金融生态环境的优劣直接影响到银行贷款的积极性、林业信息不对称引发借款人的故意违约、价值补偿机制缺失导致借款人的理性违约方面分析银行惜贷现象的成因,提出健全林权抵押贷款的法律法规、提高林权贷款尽职调查水平、积极开展森林保险业务、完善森林资源资产评估制度、建立林权抵押登记管理制度、加快林权管理服务平台建设等林权抵押贷款的金融风险防范策略。     

Smallholder production structure and rural roads in Africa: the case of Nakuru District, Kenya

Data from a 1998 survey of farming households in Kenya is used to estimate the effects of poor rural road infrastructure (and high market access costs) on the structure of smallholder farm production. Simultaneous estimation of cost and input share equations reveals rational responses by farmers to high access costs. In the expected continued absence of major investments in rural infrastructure in countries such as Kenya, the policy challenge is to identify and catalyse institutional innovations that reduce a range of transaction costs, increase financial liquidity, increase social capital, and reduce risk.     

Collective agri-environment schemes: How can regional environmental cooperatives enhance farmers’ intentions for agri-environment schemes?

The effectiveness of agri-environment schemes (AES) in enhancing biodiversity on farmland and creating a long-lasting change in farmers’ motivation towards a more environmental-friendly practice is still strongly debated. Applying a regional approach has been advocated widely to make AES more ecologically and socially sustainable. In the Netherlands, some AES are performed collectively by large regional groups of farmers called Environmental Cooperatives (EC). We hypothesise that these cooperatives enhance farmers’ intention to participate by facilitating the application of AES, but also by generating group pressure. In the study at hand, we used an extended version of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to investigate which factors are associated with farmers’ intention to participate in two kinds of collective AES (ditch bank management and the protection of meadow birds). Our results demonstrate that attitude and perceived personal ability to participate in these AES are associated with the intention of farmers to participate in ditch bank management. However, for the protection of meadow birds, social pressure, self-identity and facilitation by the EC also relate to the intention of farmers. We conclude that the facilitation undertaken by ECs positively relates to farmers’ intention to participate in collective AES.