Economic Welfare Impacts of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease in the Canadian Beef Cattle Sector

A foot‐and‐mouth disease outbreak, although having a low probability of occurrence, results in losses of export markets and introduces considerable potential disease management and eradication costs. We develop a dynamic model that integrates beef cattle production, disease dissemination, domestic consumption, and international trade and captures the intertemporal economic welfare impacts of mitigation measures. The model is applied to the case of a hypothetical outbreak in Canada to capture changes in producer profits, consumer price, and government costs due to the outbreak and sums these to measure changes in total economic welfare of the beef industry. Mitigation scenarios are reported for stamping‐out, movement controls, vaccination, and preemptive slaughter.     

Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime‐dependent modelling and connected scatterplots

The economic impacts of animal disease outbreaks have been widely discussed in the literature. Most authors have centred their attention on estimating the direct costs. Recent studies have shown that the indirect economic effects might lead to equal or even higher welfare losses. This study aims to contribute to this field of research by assessing the effect of an animal disease outbreak on food market price dynamics in Mexico, accounting for the potential effect of an antitrust intervention. We employ a regime‐dependent vector error correction model and a connected scatterplot analysis. The results show that both the outbreak and the antitrust intervention caused structural breaks in food market price dynamics between producers and consumers, reflected in an increase in the absolute component of the marketing margin, with serious food security implications.     

Hog producer income losses under contagious animal disease restrictions

Eradication measures of a contagious animal disease may force farmers to keep ready-to-slaughter animals on the farm. As feeding heavy animals may reduce carcass quality and farmer income, farmers can adjust their feeding policy in order to decrease losses from delayed slaughter. The problem is interesting also from society's point of view because eradication measures can affect a large number of farms when a single farm is infected. A dynamic programming model is developed to study optimal hog feeding strategies when the timing of slaughter is restricted. The model takes into account carcass quality, its effects on timing of slaughter under given prices, and animal density on the farm. The results show that farmers suffer substantial losses due to delayed slaughter, and can minimize the losses by reducing energy feeding. The results give information on designing compensation schemes so that all farmers have economic incentives to implement preferred eradication policy.     

非洲猪瘟疫情对我国肉类价格影响的区域异质性研究

目的 非洲猪瘟疫情暴发导致猪肉等畜产品市场供需结构性、区域性失衡，进而导致肉类价格大幅波动，不利于畜牧业高质量可持续发展。方法 文章通过构建覆盖全国30个省（市、区，不含港澳台、西藏），包括猪牛羊和白条鸡四大肉类价格和非洲猪瘟疫情指数的动态面板数据，运用面板向量自回归模型（PVAR），研究非洲猪瘟疫情对猪肉等主要肉类价格的冲击和影响在重点、约束、适度发展区和潜力增长区2的区域异质性。结果 （1）非洲猪瘟疫情对不同区域不同肉类价格的影响存在着正负向不趋同的方向性差异，在冲击程度大小和时滞期上均存区域异质性；（2）区域间和区域内不同省份间猪肉等肉类生产流通和供需形势、及非洲猪瘟发生发展程度的差异是非洲猪瘟疫情对这些肉类价格冲击影响异质性产生的主要原因。结论 非洲猪瘟疫情对肉类价格影响存在较为明显的区域异质性，亟需进一步优化生猪等畜牧产业布局，加快形成区域协同发展格局；健全动物疫病防控体系，建立多方协同联动机制；完善市场风险预警调控机制，加快实现产需顺畅匹配，确保畜产品市场总体平稳运行和畜牧业健康可持续发展。     

AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: ESTIMATES OF INCOME AND PRICE ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY

This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand and supply of agricultural exports from developing countries, on the basis of (a) a consistent and fully specified supply and demand model, and (b) statistical estimation procedures not frequently used in the estimation of agricultural export functions. Estimates of price and income elasticities of demand for aggregate agricultural exports for all developing countries taken together — as distinct from individual exporting countries — are found to be low; moreover, export price as distinguished from non-price factors plays a relatively insignificant role in increasing export supply. Hence, an attempt by all developing countries to expand traditional agricultural exports with low price elasticity of demand may not yield rising earnings for all; but in fact may result in falling export revenues. Insofar as individual exports of all developing countries (not individual countries) are concerned, income and price elasticities of demand for such tropical commodities as tea, coffee, cocoa and bananas are also found to be low, except for new, non-traditional exports like pineapples. This indicates the importance of diversification of agricultural exports as a vehicle for their future growth.     

Demand for animal‐derived food in selected Asian countries: A system‐wide analysis

Food consumption patterns in Asia show a trend away from staples toward high protein food derived from animal and dairy products, fruit and vegetables, fats and oils. Such changes in food consumption patterns are due to rising incomes, urbanization, globalization, and modernization of marketing infrastructure. In this article, we analyze the demand for the animal‐derived food group comprising meat (chicken, beef, pork, and mutton), eggs and fish, and derive income and price elasticities in seven Asian countries using the system‐wide approach. Demand homogeneity and Slutsky symmetry properties were tested and found to be compatible with the data. Our findings reveal that animal‐derived food as a group is a necessity (except in Taiwan) and its demand is price inelastic (except in Taiwan and Sri Lanka). The implied unconditional demand elasticities reveal that, in all countries (except beef in Japan and Taiwan), chicken, beef, pork, mutton, eggs and fish (except in Taiwan) are all necessities and the demand for all types of animal‐derived food in all seven countries are mostly price inelastic. The cross‐price elasticity estimates are mostly found to be positive, meaning that there is a higher degree of substitutability between chicken, beef, pork, mutton, eggs, and fish.     

Testing for pre‐committed quantities of Australian meat demand

Pre‐committed consumption represents the portion of demand that is determined by non‐price and non‐income factors. This study uses quarterly data to estimate a Generalised Almost Ideal Demand System (GAIDS) to test for the existence of pre‐committed meat consumption in Australia. Two specifications are estimated to evaluate the impact of seasonal and time trend factors on pre‐committed demand. Evidence is found for the existence of pre‐committed chicken consumption when jointly estimated with seasonal and time trend factors. Results support improved demand modelling of Australian meat consumption using the GAIDS and provide insights into how Australian meat demand is affected by price, expenditures, pre‐committed consumption, seasonality, and trends.     

Sector- and economy-wide effects of terminating the use of anti-microbial growth promoters in Denmark

In Denmark the poultry industry and the National Committee for Pig Production, together with the feedstuff industry, decided to voluntarily abolish the use of all Anti-microbial Growth Promoters (AGP). The poultry industry abolished the use of AGP from 15 February 1998 and the pig industry followed on 1 March 1998 (for pigs over 35 kg) and 1 January 2000 (for pigs under 35 kg). To evaluate the effects of the removal of AGP, data from both the poultry and pig industries were collected prior to and after the removal of AGP from animal feed. Utilizing these production data, this paper calculates economy-wide effects of the removal of AGP using the Agricultural Applied General Equilibrium (AAGE) model of the Danish economy. The results show that the long-term effects are a moderate decline in the production and export of pig meat, and a positive indirect effect on other industries including poultry due to lower rental rates for primary factor inputs. The overall implication is a small decline in real GDP of 0.03%, reducing public and private consumption by 68 DKK per capita per year in Denmark.     

The impacts of animal disease crises on the Korean meat market

Employing the error correction method and historical decomposition with direct acyclic graphs, we quantify the impacts of domestic and overseas animal disease crises on the Korean meat market. We have the following findings: (a) the market partially recovered 16 months after the domestic foot‐and‐mouth outbreak (FMD) in 2000, and 13 months after the domestic avian influenza (AI) incidents and the U.S. bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) discovery in 2003; (b) animal disease outbreaks had differentiated impacts by disease type and at different levels of meat supply chain. Retail price margin increased relative to the farm and wholesale levels; and (c) disease outbreaks caused changes of dynamic interdependence between prices by meat type at different levels of meat supply chain.     

A cross-section analysis of household demand for food and nutrients in Tanzania

Undernutrition and malnutrition are still problems of unacceptable proportions in many developing countries. However, the debate on the roles of income and other socio-economic variables such as women’s education and household size on food and nutrient demand continues. This study examines the demand for food and nutrients amongst households in Tanzania, using recent survey data. A quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) is employed to estimate price and expenditure elasticities, as well as the impact of socio-economic variables on food demand patterns. A moment-based instrumental variable approach is then used to analyse the determinants of nutrient demand. The results show that income and other socio-economic variables exert significant effects on the demand for food and nutrients. The estimated expenditure elasticities for the nutrients range from 0.307 for iron to 1.26 for Vitamin B₁₂. The elasticities are higher for those micronutrients that are consumed through animal products and lower for those micronutrients that are mainly obtained through staple foods. These results reflect the higher expenditure elasticities for meat, fish, eggs, milk, and milk products, as well as fruits and vegetables, relative to cereals and pulses, reinforcing the assertion that the demand for Vitamins A and B₁₂, as well as calcium and zinc will increase with rising income.     

新冠肺炎疫情对2020年农业农村发展的影响评估与应对建议

由于种养业季节性强、农民工流动性大、农村防护条件差,疫情对农业农村发展的影响具有全面性和持久性。研究显示,疫情防控导致的物流中断,家禽养殖企业遭遇生存危机,导致短期肉价下跌和2020年肉类供需紧张局面加剧;果蔬滞销、粮食销售延迟以及部分农产品消费抑制,将使相当部分种植户2020年收益面临下滑;疫情期间的延期复工和疫情后的长期停工会导致农民工就业人数下降205万人至351.1万人,2020年农民工人均工资收入名义增长速度可能将下降1.45至2.46个百分点。综合考虑疫情对各项收入来源的影响,2020年农村居民人均可支配收入名义增长速度可能将下降2.59至3.59个百分点。因此,应加紧建立应急储备和加大供需调节力度,以补贴和政策性信贷支持引导龙头企业帮助小农户度过难关,加大对农民工再就业培训和返乡创业的支持,多渠道稳定农民收入。     

EXPORT SUPPLY RESPONSE OF THE AUSTRALIAN CITRUS INDUSTRY*

A model of export supply response of the Australian citrus industry is developed and estimated using cointegration and error correction techniques and quarterly data for the period 1983 to 1993. The estimates suggest that, even in the long run, the supply of citrus exports is inelastic with respect to relative price. The results also show that the adjustment of export supply to changes in relative price is not instantaneous, the domestic production capacity has a significant positive impact on export supply, and export supply in the June quarter in each year is significantly lower than in other quarters.     

Assessing the U.S. Market Economics for a Cultured Flounder,Paralichthys sp., Industry

There is considerable interest in the culture of flounder because of its high retail market value, the established worldwide market for flatfish, and the ability of flounder to grow in fresh or brackish water. The author assesses the U.S. market potential for a cultured flounder, Paralichthys sp., industry. Regression analyses were used to estimate both the price and income elasticity of demand for flounder. Demand forecasting was used to predict effective annual future demand for flounder. Although the U.S. flounder market is large and expanding, there are indications of excess supply suppressing prices below profitable levels for aquaculture producers. Demand is price inelastic, so an increase in supply from aquaculture production will produce a disproportionately large decrease in price, reducing total producer revenue. Unless niche markets are targeted or an export market is developed, the outlook for large-scale flounder aquaculture in the United States is not economically promising.     

城市居民用水需求影响因素研究

介绍城市居民用水需求影响因素研究的背景，定性分析城市居民用水需求的影响因素，分析城市居民用水量的影响因素计量模型。确定影响城市居民水资源需求的主要因素：水价的提高会对减少城市居民用水数量；水资源的短缺状况会显著降低城市居民用水量；城市居民家庭用水存在规模效应；城市用水人口素质越高，人均年用水量越多。得出结论：通过运用价格机制，改革用水制度，可以调动人们节约用水的积极性；采用更为节水的生产技术，会大大消除水资源供求缺口，其成本也可能大大低于调水方案。除此之外，城市居民的社会经济特征也会影响到城市居民用水量，例如家庭平均人口数以及受教育人口比例等。     

DEMAND FOR FOOD IN GREECE: AN ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM ANALYSIS

This paper provides an analysis of food demand in Greece using the Almost Ideal Demand System and annual food expenditure data for the period 1950–1986. The focus is on the estimation of a complete matrix of price and income elasticities for the various food commodity groups for Greece. The empirical analysis points to the dominant position that meat and other livestock products have acquired in the diet of Greek consumers during a period of high income growth and rising living standards. Further increase in meat and milk demand is expected to take place as long as incomes keep rising.     

Optimum Replacement Policies for the Control of Subclinical Mastitis due to S.aureus in Dairy Cows

A dynamic program was used to establish the optimum replacement policy for dairy herds, taking into account subclinical mastitis caused by the bacteria Staphylococcus aureus. This particular pathogen is resistant to normal drug therapies and therefore culling is the major method of control. Methods are described to account for output losses due to yield loss and a reduction in milk price caused by extra somatic cells secreted into the milk by infected cows. Extra culling was justified in both infected and control herds in order to reduce the level of infection in the herd. The method described allows replacement policy to be treated as control expenditure rather than an output loss in the economic analysis of farm animal disease. This approach will become even more important as consumers demand an alternative to the prophylactic use of antibiotics in agriculture without compromising food quality and safety.     

LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION POLICIES AND MEAT PROCESSING MARGINS: THE CASE OF NEW ZEALAND, 1967-1988*

The New Zealand export meat industry has been through a considerable number of changes in the 1980s. The deregulation of export slaughter facilities, Supplementary Minimum Prices, Producer Board intervention, declining livestock numbers and domestic cost pressures have all affected the performance of the domestically based processing sector. Major changes in market access and demand have influenced off-shore marketing operations, particularly for sheepmeats. Additionally, there has been a change in the type of meat exported with a greater proportion of further processed product shipped in recent years. As an example of the impact of these developments on livestock producers, the producer share of the United Kingdom wholesale market return for a representative prime lamb carcase has fallen from 40 per cent in 1978 to 25 per cent in 1988. In this article the pattern of intervention in the New Zealand pastoral meat industries from the mid-1960s is detailed, emphasising the different environments of the beef and sheepmeat enterprises. Then the principal factors influencing domestic processing margins for these products are empirically examined. Alternative model specifications and alternative estimation techniques are compared and contrasted. The results of these analyses are discussed in terms of the historical patterns of assistance and structural change, and in terms of current rationalisation pressures on the meat processing sector.     

新冠肺炎对生猪产业影响及应对策略

我国生猪产业受到2018年开始暴发的非洲猪瘟冲击后,目前基础产能正在持续恢复。由于地方政府在落实新冠肺炎疫情防控和保障畜牧业生产等方面有效措施不多,饲料和屠宰企业开工不足,省市际间和乡村道路不畅,各类生产资料运输遇到困难。生猪养殖模式、规模和组织水平均影响养殖主体应对突发事件的能力。生猪生产和流通在短期受到严重冲击,致使产能恢复速度放缓,猪价波动风险加大。下一步各地方政府应尽快出台扎实有效的措施,疏通交通物流,同时要加强疫病防控,提高复产支持力度,提升组织化水平,建立应急防御机制,确保生猪保供稳价目标的实现。     

The wealth of nature: economics as if survival mattered

Livestock play a key role in the lives of poor, rural people in developing countries, providing a major proportion of their cash income, capital assets, draught power, fuel and fertilizer. Rapid growth in demand for meat and dairy products in Asia presents both opportunities and challenges for livestock development and poverty alleviation. This paper explores the potential of livestock intensification to benefit the livelihoods of upland households and meet market demand in the Lao Peoples' Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), a South East Asian country undergoing significant economic change.

A review of the livestock sector in Asia shows increasing demand for live animals and meat in neighbouring Vietnam, Thailand and China. Lao PDR is well positioned to capitalize on the growing Asian livestock sector, however the extent livestock production in Lao PDR can reduce poverty, meet growing domestic meat demand and lift livestock exports is problematic. Findings from research in two upland northern provinces demonstrate how the introduction of forages for livestock has revolutionized the lives of some farmers and villages, but concludes that strategies are still needed to engage poorer households. The impacts of changing domestic and export markets are less certain, and are discussed within the context of environmental and public health, cultural traditions, economic development and sustainable livelihoods.     

U.S. Canned Tuna Supply and Demand

Abstract

A 3SLS econometric model is used to estimate price elasticities of supply and demand for domestically produced and imported canned tuna in the U.S. market. In addition, a VAR model is developed to examine the relations between imports and domestically produced canned tuna. For domestically produced canned tuna, a 3SLS estimation of a structural econometric model yielded a coefficient for price elasticity of supply of 0.2 and of own-price demand of ?0.3. Such price inelasticities are expected of a fishery exploited at or near its maximum yields (inelastic supply), and a consumer product widely viewed as almost a necessity in a well-stocked pantry (inelastic demand). In addition, the model yielded a cross-price elasticity of demand with respect to the price of imported canned tuna of 0.45. Additional results include an income elasticity U.S. demand for domestically packed tuna of 0.83; a cross-price elasticity with the price of bread (a complement) of ?0.33, a cross-price elasticity for the price of ground meat (a substitute) of 0.30. With respect to imported canned tuna in the U.S. market, the corresponding elasticities estimated in the model are ?1.3 (own-price demand), 3.5 (income elasticity), ?1.2 (cross-price with the price of bread) and 2.5 (cross-price with the price of ground meat).

For canned tuna company managers, the results provide useful information about the likely effects on sales that would come from their own price changes, from changes in the price of imported canned tuna, and from price changes in the markets for complementary and substitute products. They can also use our results in discussions with U.S. trade negotiators, who are frequently faced with disputes over tariffs, market access, and other trade issues.