我国不同收入层次股票市场财富效应研究

股票市场财富效应是指股票价格的变动对消费的影响,不同收入层次的消费水平对股价变动的反应程度不同。本文基于不同收入层次,对2006-2015年我国股票市场进行财富效应研究,通过拓展的LC-PIH模型验证了我国股票市场存在微弱的财富效应,高收入阶层具有更高的直接财富效应,低收入阶层存在微弱的负间接财富效应,心理因素对消费的影响不可忽视。     

城市住宅市场供求关系及其需求总量预测模型的分析

一、住宅需求函数及其形式住宅需求是一种消费者行为,在任一市场中,消费者行为的目标是追求最大满足,即效用最大化。微观经济学中,通常以无差异曲线来表示消费者消费一定量的商品能给他带来的最大满足;同时,由于消费者实际能消费的数量要受到收入和价格的限制,故用预算线来表示。据此,消费者行为的均衡点是在无差异曲线和预算线的切点上。如图1,假设消费者购买的商品分为两种,住宅及住宅以外的其他商品,图中I。为无差     

山竹的需求分析及其影响因素

主要针对五一期间山竹价格的变化,对山竹的需求量进行分析,价格上升,需求将会减少,价格下降,需求增加。并从消费者的可支配收入,消费者偏好,相关商品价格和消费者对商品价格的预期来分析影响山竹需求的因素。对影响需求价格弹性的因素从商品的性质、可替代性、商品支出占消费者预算比重三方面进行分析。最后对山竹厂商的价格和规模策略提供意见。     

我国寿险消费者的税负探究

寿险消费者税负通过价格效应和收入效应的共同作用,对一国的寿险需求产生重要影响.     

基于CRB指数的大宗商品价格对我国金融市场的影响

随着中国经济快速发展,中国经济的对外贸易依存度也越来越大,中国必须从国际市场进口大量的大宗商品原材料.由于国际大宗商品价格波动剧烈,必然会对中国的经济带来一定程度的影响.本文首先选取CRB(Commodity Research Bureau)指标代替大宗商品价格变动和上证综合指来反映我国证券市场变动,对大宗商品价格变动对我国金融市场的传导机制进行定性分析,然后分析大宗商品和证券市场的Granger因果检验,并建立相应的VAR模型,解释大宗商品价格变动对我国金融市场的溢出效应.     

垄断对市场价格及社会公平的影响研究

通过分析垄断收入差距的形成及其对不同消费者福利和社会公平分配的影响,以及初次分配中垄断差距导致的异质需求及其经济后果表明:垄断工资及垄断利润分享导致了垄断的收入分配效应;当收入差距扩大形成了异质需求过后,资产的市场价格上升,诱致价格泡沫和投机行为,并进一步损害中低收入消费者的福利,恶化社会公平分配。     

收入导向型商品、价格导向型商品和文化消费——由"大、小蛋糕现象"切入的分析

经济学中的收入导向型商品和价格导向型商品的关系是:收入导向型商品未必是价格导向型商品,但价格导向型商品一定是收入导向型商品.当收入导向型商品中的正常商品被成功地赋予了可广泛接受的文化价值内涵时,它便具有了价格导向型商品的必需品性质,此时,商品的需求对价格水平不敏感,商品的需求量在高价格水平上会呈现出显著增大的趋势.这一规律的经济含义是,企业要维持高价格条件下商品的旺盛需求,必须要善于挖掘和创新那些与商品自身特点相关联的文化价值内涵.     

人口半城镇化对房地产价格的影响研究——作用机制与实证分析

在对人口半城镇化影响房地产价格的作用机制进行理论分析的基础上,对二者的动态关系进行了实证研究.结果表明:人口半城镇化会造成半城镇化人口在常住地和户籍地之间往返生活,引发过度的住房需求,并通过半城镇化人口在两地的居住消费行为对房地产价格变动产生需求拉动效应和成本推动效应;人口半城镇化构成了房地产价格变动的单向格兰杰原因,人口半城镇化率的提高对房地产价格上涨具有程度较大和时间较为持久的正向作用.     

“中国经济需警惕外需变化”的实证分析——与高小勇先生商榷《外需变化攸关中国经济》

高小勇先生曾作文《外需变化攸关中国经济》指出:中国商品是美国消费者的吉芬商品。笔者大胆揣测高小勇先生所指是:中国商品是美国消费者心目中的劣等品。因为吉芬商品指商品的消费量与其价格呈同方向变化,而不是表现商品消费量与消费者收入之间的变化关系。本文就中国商品是不是美国消费者心目中的劣等品利用美国1990-2003年的数据进行了实证分析,同时将目光扩大至欧盟,同样对欧盟的数据进行实证分析,结论是:中国商品并非欧美消费者心目中的劣等品,欧美消费者对中国商品的需求会伴随其收入的增加而增加。     

通胀预期视角下资产价格财富效应的非对称性研究——基于状态空间模型的分析

通过建立包含居民消费、收入以及资产价格的均衡模型,并纳入通胀预期变量,运用状态空间模型以及广义脉冲响应函数等方法进行实证研究,对不同资产的边际消费倾向时变特征进行了刻画。结果发现(:1)房地产在短期具有较强的正向财富效应,但在长期具有减弱的趋势。股票资产在短期具有财富效应,但长期财富效应消失。(2)不同资产的财富效应具有非对称性,房地产的财富效应要远远大于股票资产。最后对增加城镇居民资产性收入,带动全社会消费提出了合理的建议。     

西部地区城镇化发展水平对居民消费需求关系实证研究

运用Panel Data模型和方法,依据西部地区11个省区2000～2014年数据,考量西部地区城镇化发展水平、城乡收入差距与居民消费需求差异的相互关系.结果发现,西部地区城镇化发展水平对居民消费需求有正向促进作用,城乡收入差距是导致居民消费需求的关键性原因所在.鉴此,应通过优化城镇布局和加大城镇基础设施投入,吸引人口进入城镇,提升城镇化率,同时,缩小西部地区城乡收入差距,提高居民消费需求,提升西部地区城镇化质量.     

Extreme risk spillovers from commodity indexes to sovereign CDS spreads of commodity dependent countries: A VAR quantile analysis

Given the financialization of commodities and the increase in the CDS markets' size and structure, we examine the co-movement and dependence structure between four commodity indexes and sovereign credit risk via an extreme volatility risk spillover methodology. We use the daily change in sovereign CDS data between October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2020 for ten commodity-dependent countries and four commodity indexes (agricultural, precious and industrial metals, and energy). The results of White et al.'s (2015) VAR for Value at Risk (VaR) and the pseudo quantile impulse response function (QIRF) show that the volatility of the primary commodity export category (e.g., agriculture, mineral, and energy) substantially influences the volatility of sovereign spreads (except for two agriculture-dependent exporters). Still, it does not always have the strongest risk spillover effect when other commodity indixes are included in the analysis. When drilling down on the data and examining the single commodity index (i.e., gold, corn, etc.), our results indicate that the primary commodity exports significantly influence the volatility of its sovereign CDS spreads. Based on the results of the QIRF, most shocks are absorbed within 30 days. Most risk spillover from the volatility of sovereign CDS spreads to the volatility of commodity indexes is found to be insignificant.     

Childcare Assistance: Are Subsidies or Tax Credits Better?

We evaluate price subsidies and tax credits for childcare. We focus on partnered women's labour supply, household income and welfare, demand for childcare and government expenditure. Using Australian data, we estimate a joint, discrete structural model of labour supply and childcare demand. We introduce two methodological innovations – a more flexible quantity constraint that total formal and informal childcare hours are at least as large as the mother's labour supply and the explicit inclusion of maternal childcare in the utility function as a proxy for child development. We find that tax credits are more effective than subsidies in terms of increasing average hours worked and household income. However, tax credits disproportionately benefit wealthier and more educated women. Price subsidies, while less efficient, have positive redistributional effects.     

不同收入者对食品安全度的不同需求研究

基于食品特征价格需求模型,考量城镇居民和农村居民对蛋白质、脂肪和碳水化合物三种常量营养元素的效用评价,结果显示,相对高收入人群对食品的营养程度和安全度更加重视,相对低收入人群对价格更为敏感.食品安全问题相关的新闻报道统计数据表明,监管力度强并不能完全杜绝食品违规生产行为,消费者尤其是低收入消费者对食品中必需品的需求,会为企业过度压低生产成本提供空间.鉴此,应从需求角度考虑食品安全治理问题,提高低收入消费者的收入水平,是对加强监管力度的重要补充.     

Effects of speculation and interest rates in a “carry trade” model of commodity prices

The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants' expectations of future price changes on the other hand. It goes beyond past research by bringing to bear new data sources: survey data to measure expectations of future changes in commodity prices and options data to measure perceptions of risk. Some evidence is found of a negative effect of interest rates on the demand for inventories and thereby on commodity prices and positive effects of expected future price gains on inventory demand and thereby on today's commodity prices.     

房地产价格对城镇居民收入差距的影响研究——基于区际差异化市场比较

运用聚类分析方法和五等法计算六大类别不同代表省市的基尼系数,依据2002~2011年省市面板数据考量6个不同类别省市房地产价格对收入差距的影响。结果表明:我国不同类别省市的房价波动对基尼系数的变动呈现出一定的差异性与区域性;第一、三类地区房价波动对城镇居民收入差距产生显著影响;第二类地区房地产市场投资投机活动不如第一、三类城市活跃,房价波动幅度比较稳定;第四、五类地区房价波动对收入差距的影响程度次于第二类地区;第六类地区房价波动幅度小,对收入差距不足以产生显著影响。     

原油价格与经济政策不确定性对大宗商品市场非对称冲击效应研究

利用面板分位回归模型,考量不同市场环境下原油价格与经济政策不确定性对大宗商品市场非对称性冲击效应。结果表明：油价冲击对中国大宗商品收益的影响具有非对称性,正负油价冲击对其均有促进作用,但随着市场环境好转,正油价冲击的作用逐渐增强,负油价冲击则逐渐减弱;政策不确定性对大宗商品收益有促进作用,但在牛市环境下有抑制作用;且危机前后,油价冲击对大宗商品收益的影响存在非对称性效应。     

An evasive topic: theorizing about the hidden economy

This paper reviews some central issues that arise in theorizing about tax evasion decisions and the hidden economy. It starts from the Allingham and Sandmo (J. Public Econ. 1:323–338, 1972) modeling of the tax evasion decision as a choice under uncertainty based on expected utility maximization and risk aversion. It goes on to discuss alternative specifications of the taxpayer’s preferences with particular regard to the explanation of the extensive margin, i.e. the decision on whether or not to engage in tax evasion. It extends the model to the case of variable labor supply with work in both official and black labor markets. It then considers the application of the theory to taxes on wealth and income from capital, indirect tax evasion, and smuggling. It also includes a consideration of general equilibrium effects and of the problems that evasion causes for the theory of optimal income and commodity taxes. It concludes with a brief discussion of the implications of tax evasion for economic policy in the welfare state.     

空间关联视角下连片特困地区农民收入增长的影响因素分析——基于武陵山区66个县域数据和空间杜宾模型的实证

基于2000-2014年武陵山区66个县域的面板数据和空间杜宾模型分析了连片特困地区农民收入增长的影响因素.研究结果表明:连片特困地区农民收入存在显著的空间关联效应.金融发展有效促进了县域内农民收入增长,但未在县域间产生明显的空间溢出效应.经济基础和投资水平不仅显著促进了县域内农民收入增长,而且在县域间产生了明显的正向空间溢出效应;经济基础促进农民收入增长的间接作用要大于直接效应,而投资水平正好与之相反;政府干预有效促进了县域农民收入增长并且对邻近县域农民收入增长产生了显著的负向空间溢出效应;产业结构对县域间农民收入增长的空间溢出效应负向显著;人力资本对农民收入增长的影响不显著.     

The individual's transactions demand for money: A utility maximization approach

This model of the transactions demand shows how an individual may simultaneously choose patterns of consumption, money holdings, and bond holdings over time that maximize utility when faced with a wide variety of possible cyclical patterns in his flow of income. Interesting conclusions about the transactions demand and the real balance effect are derived. For example, there is no theoretical reason to believe that a single individual's demand for money is proportional to his income, and a small excess stock of money is likely to cause a large increase in his level of consumption.