理解现代财政:公共风险的视角

理解财政,需要转换思维.表面看,财政行为是利益的分配和转移,而从实质看,财政行为是风险的分配和转移.财政通过分配和平衡风险,避免风险在某处聚集并在风险链上放大,避免了危机的产生,这实质是化解公共风险,所以财政的本质功能是通过平衡风险化解公共风险,以维护社会共同体的生存和发展.财政的基础性作用在于,只有财政有这种平衡风险的内在功能.与社会共同体面临的公共风险治理要求相匹配,是现代财政的判断标准.如果财政能够很好地平衡风险、化解公共风险,那就是现代财政;通过改革与公共风险治理要求相匹配,就是现代财政改革.新时代的现代财政改革,要立足于以下几个方面:构建大国财政体系,应对面临的全球风险挑战;织密预算的制度笼子,完善权力的财政治理体系;建立公平与效率融合的财政制度;为形成经济双循环格局"架桥铺路".     

地方财政土地出让金偏好的风险及规避

在现行财政体制和土地制度等多重因素的共同作用下,地方财政土地出让金偏好得以形成,但这种财政收入方式带来了巨大的财政风险和社会风险,破坏了土地资源的可持续利用,建议从完善财政体制和土地出让制度两个方向来逐步降低地方财政土地出让金偏好,规避风险。     

Uncertainty and the neutrality of government financing policy

Some ideas from the theory of finance are applied to consider whether debt-financed tax cuts affect desired consumption. It is shown that government financing policy is a matter of indifference to infinitely-lived households, if a perfect substitute for public debt exists. The analysis allows for uncertainty about future taxes, and for missing markets in some kinds of assets. Income redistribution risk, and the public insurance aspects of an income tax scheme, qualify this neutrality result, but in general the net effect is ambiguous. The real resource costs of financial transacting, as well as government superiority in the intermediation process, may be one rationale for activist debt-management policy. A better understanding of functioning capital markets is essential to evaluate these arguments.     

Sovereign default risk,overconfident investors and diverse beliefs: Theory and evidence from a new dataset on outstanding credit default swaps

In standard public finance theory a government's cost of borrowing depends on the common beliefs held by rational investors regarding default risk. We advance understanding of the effects of diverse beliefs and overconfidence among investors in their ability to assess the sovereign's creditworthiness. Theoretically, we find that demand for insurance against default is positively related to the absolute difference between the market price of sovereign risk and the risk forecasted by the economy's fundamentals. We find preliminary support for this prediction in a newly available dataset on sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs): after controlling for the size of the public debt, the absolute size of the gap between the actual and forecasted spreads is positively related to the value of outstanding CDSs.     

以公共风险的结构和强度重塑财政政策体系

随着我国社会、经济发展形态和发展目标的变化,财政政策体系目标和运行逻辑也需要超越建立在确定性思维基础上的凯恩斯主义分析框架,财政政策供给要根据风险权衡原理,视公共风险的结构和强度进行相机调整.在当前复杂的国内外发展环境下,财政须充分发挥作为国家治理的基础与重要支柱的作用,以应对各种不确定性作为财政政策体系运行的目标,与金融环境协调配合,在保证财政自身风险可控前提下,通过灵活多样的政策工具为经济社会注入确定性,降低风险、引导预期,使经济社会系统整体的公共风险最小化.     

Contracts,governance, and country risk in project finance: Theory and evidence

Project finance links financial structure to the operational characteristics of the project to optimize the allocations of various project risks. We develop a model in which concession grants and offtake agreements benefit both public and private sponsors in the presence of political risk. The public can use these contracts to incentivize the private sponsor to undertake an otherwise unacceptable project while benefiting from delegating the process of financing, building, and operating the project to the private sponsor. For the private sponsor, the government concession grant, while improving financial returns, entails political influence. We develop hypotheses connecting these contract choices to the public–private partnership governance structure of project finance and provide supporting evidence. Our findings suggest that a country's political and financial risks have significant impacts on the contract choice as well as the public–private governance structure in project finance. Projects in greater political risk countries tend to be structured with less government involvement in order to avoid political influence of the local government. Projects with the private finance initiative end up with more government involvement and control in order to protect the public interest.     

关于构筑我国公共财政支出框架的思考

适应市场经济改革，构筑公共财政支出框架是我国下一步财政支出改革的目标和方向。借鉴西方公共财政理论政策的同时，应结合我国的现实国情通盘考虑。构筑新财政支出框架时，既要满足公共财政的一般性要求，又要结合我国财政的特殊性要求，两者并重，不可偏废。在合理界定财政支出职能范围的基础上，通过提高支出总量、优化支出结构、加强支出管理、构筑适合我国国情的公共支出框架。     

河北省财政运行风险及防范对策研究

近年来,面对经济社会各领域公共风险,河北财政通过减收、增支、加债等方式,有效防控了公共风险的暴发,全省财政经济运行整体平稳,但也导致财政自身风险的累积,体现在财政收入持续增长后劲不足、财政支出保障难度逐步增加、地方政府债务风险存有隐患、其他领域风险趋向财政转移等.防控地方财政经济运行风险,需要充分发挥财政职能,加强财源建设,推动财政收入持续增长;调整支出方向,确保地方财政平稳运行;完善管理机制,防范地方政府债务风险;深化体制改革,消除财政风险转移隐患.     

Entrepreneurial finance: Banks versus venture capital

We analyze how entrepreneurial firms choose between two funding institution: banks, which monitor less intensively and face liquidity demands from their own investors, and venture capitalists, who can monitor more intensively but face a higher cost of capital because of the liquidity constraints that they impose on their own investors. Because the firm's manager prefers continuing the firm over liquidating it and aggressive (risky) continuation strategies over conservative (safe) continuation strategies, the institution must monitor the firm and exercise some control over its decisions. Bank finance takes the form of debt, whereas venture capital finance often resembles convertible debt. Venture capital finance is optimal only when the aggressive continuation strategy is not too profitable, ex ante; the uncertainty associated with the risky continuation strategy (strategic uncertainty) is high; and the firm's cash flow distribution is highly risky and positively skewed, with low probability of success, low liquidation value, and high returns if successful. A decrease in venture capitalists’ cost of capital encourages firms to switch from safe strategies and bank finance to riskier strategies and venture capital finance, increasing the average risk of firms in the economy.     

税负归宿问题研究趋势与展望

从西方财政学的视角来看,要确定某项税收的归宿到底有多少,是一个非常复杂和困难的问题,也正因为如此,在西方财政学及公共经济学领域,税负归宿理论的研究一直吸引着众多学者为之付出不懈的努力,本文对西方各大学派的税负归宿（Incidence Tax）思想进行了梳理和总结。在此基础上,对我国近年来的税负归宿理论思想进行分析,通过国内外对比研究,揭示国内研究的局限性,并在此基础上提出研究展望。     

公共财政框架下的财政风险防范机制研究

本以构建公共财政框架的必要性为背景，论述了公共财政框架下的财政风险，并提出了这种风险的研究对策。     

How do investors react under uncertainty?

It has long been accepted that risk plays an important role in determining valuation where risk reflects that investors are unsure of future returns but are able to express their prior expectations by a probability distribution of these returns. Knight (1921) introduced the concept of uncertainty where investors possess incomplete knowledge about this distribution and so are unable to formulate priors over all possible outcomes. One common approach for making uncertainty tractable is to assume that investors faced with uncertainty will base their decisions on the worst case scenario (i.e. follow maxmin expected utility). As a consequence it is postulated that investors will become more pessimistic as uncertainty increases, upgrading bad news and downgrading good news. Using Australian data, we find evidence that investors react to bad news at times of high market uncertainty but largely ignore good news which is consistent with them taking on a pessimistic bias. However, we also find evidence of the reverse when market uncertainty is low with investors taking on an optimistic stance by ignoring bad news but reacting to good news. We also find that the impact that market uncertainty has on the reaction of investors to new information is modified by the prevailing market sentiment at the time of the announcement. Besides throwing light on the question of how uncertainty impacts on investor behaviour, our findings seriously challenge the common assumption made that investors consistently deal with uncertainty by applying maxmin expected utility.     

论纳税人概念的完善

目前的纳税人概念是我国财政学领域多年来按照国家分配论界定税收的产物,是税收法律领域长期按照权力关系说定性税收法律关系的结果。在深化财政税收体制改革、构建公共财政的基本框架,建设法治国家、推进强制型税务行政到服务型税务行政的转变、日益重视纳税人权利保护的今天,这一概念已经不合时宜,应予修改和完善。     

互联网金融对商业银行风险承担的影响研究——基于中国30家商业银行的实证分析

为了研究互联网金融对商业银行风险承担的影响,本文以2009—2018年互联网金融对中国30家典型商业银行风险承担影响的数据为基础,运用动态面板广义矩估计方法对互联网金融对我国商业银行风险承担的影响进行了研究与分析。结果表明:(1)互联网金融对我国商业银行风险承担的影响呈现倒U形分布,即互联网金融发展初期通过抢占市场份额,加剧了行业竞争,抢占了商业银行利润,进而加大了商业银行风险承担的成本;但随着商业银行对互联网前沿技术的不断融合、金融产品服务的创新以及风险管控水平的提升,商业银行风险承担的成本下降。(2)面对互联网金融的冲击,不同类型商业银行对风险承担反应具有异质性:在宏观层面,大型国有银行拥有庞大的资产规模和政策保障,对其冲击反应较为滞后;股份制银行和城市商业银行缺乏上述优势,对其冲击反映较为敏感,但股份制银行后期风险承担显著下降;农村商业银行因主要服务于乡村建设,受其影响较为有限。在微观层面,面对互联网金融的冲击,与资本充足率和流动性水平较低的大型商业银行相比,资本充足率和流动性水平较高的小规模商业银行风险承担显著增加。     

THE HISTORY OF FINANCE: AN EYEWITNESS ACCOUNT

In this account of the evolution of finance theory, the “father of modern finance” uses the series of Nobel Prizes awarded finance scholars in the 1990s as the organizing principle for a discus‐sion of the major developments of the past 50 years. Starting with Harry Markowitz's 1952 Journal of Finance paper on “Portfolio Selection,” which provided the mean‐variance frame‐work that underlies modern portfolio theory (and for which Markowitz re‐ceived the Nobel Prize in 1990), the paper moves on to consider the Capi‐tal Asset Pricing Model, efficient mar‐ket theory, and the M & M irrelevance propositions. In describing these ad‐vances, Miller's major emphasis falls on the “tension” between the two main streams in finance scholarship: (1) the Business School (or “micro normative”) approach, which focuses on investors ‘attempts to maximize returns and cor‐porate managers’ efforts to maximize shareholder value, while taking the prices of securities in the market as given; and (2) the Economics Depart‐ment (or “macro normative”) approach, which assumes a “world of micro optimizers” and deduces from that assumption how the market prices actually evolve. The tension between the two ap‐proaches is resolved, and the two streams converge, in the final episode of Miller's history–the breakthrough in option pricing accomplished by Fischer Black, Myron Scholes, and Rob‐ert Merton in the early 1970s (for which Merton and Scholes were awarded the Nobel Prize in 1998, “with the late Fischer Black everywhere ac‐knowledged as the third pivotal fig‐ure”). As Miller says, the Black‐Scholes option pricing model and its many successors “mean that, for the first time in its close to 50‐year history, the field of finance can be built, or…rebuilt, on the basis of ‘observable’ magnitudes.” That option values can be calculated (almost entirely) with observable vari‐ables has made possible the spectacu‐lar growth in financial engineering, a highly lucrative activity where the prac‐tice of finance has come closest to attaining the precision of a hard sci‐ence. Option pricing has also helped give rise to a relatively new field called “real options” that promises to revolu‐tionize corporate strategy and capital budgeting. But if the practical applications of option pricing are impressive, the op‐portunities for further extensions of the theory by the “macro normative” wing of the profession are “vast,” in‐cluding the prospect of viewing all securities as options. Thus, it comes as no surprise that when Miller asks in closing, “What would I specialize in if I were starting over and entering the field today?,” the answer is: “At the risk of sounding like the character in ‘The Graduate,’ I reduce my advice to a single word: options.”     

Mastering risks: An illusion: Truth and tropes on jeopardy

Drawing on examples from maritime insurance, this article seeks to show that historically rules and regulations have often taken into consideration the performativity of risk insurance so as to limit the range of insured risks and thus avoid the realization of the claims through embezzlement or kindred corruption.Today the question of performativity and corruption remains outside the pale of financial research. Having rejected the distinction between uncertainty and risk, financiers take risk quantification as an incontrovertible given. Quantifying risk has become a key feature in modern finance ever since the difference between risk and uncertainty was rejected by financiers. Two reasons underlie this state of affairs: first the prevalent rationalist paradigm as expounded by highly reputed university professors has elevated “quantifiable risk” to a dogma. Additionally, this idea of risk, and its quantifiable limits, gain acceptance by society to the extent that systemic risk is constrained by a further concept: efficient markets. Herein we develop an idea of ethical responsibility which leads to a novel definition of risk, sharply diverging from current practice and instruction, so as to meeting the contemporary needs of both finance and broader society.     

消费金融发展的理论解释与国际经验借鉴

通过对消费经济理论与消费金融理论的分析,消费金融的发展有其历史的必然性和存在的合理性。作为消费金融主要运营主体的消费金融公司在发达市场已经成长为一个规模较大的特殊金融市场,越来越多的消费金融公司有商业银行加盟。我国目前消费金融刚刚起步,金融市场发展不成熟,在风险管理和盈利模式上需要创新和探索,发展前景广阔。     

Public entrants,public equity finance and creative destruction

We explore the importance of new public firms and public equity finance for R&D and creative destruction in the US high-tech sector. Over 1900 new public firms enter high-tech manufacturing between 1970 and 2004; they are increasingly R&D intensive and rely extensively on public equity finance in the 1980s and 1990s. We estimate dynamic R&D models and find a strong link between public equity finance and R&D for new entrants, but not established entrants or incumbents. Further, recent cohorts of public entrants have a substantial economic impact: by 2000, recent public entrants account for almost half of high-tech sales and more than half of R&D. Variation in the availability of public equity finance has a marked impact on entrant R&D and the rate at which entrants take market share from incumbents. Our findings identify a key channel through which public equity markets facilitate the process of creative destruction.     

MIT Roundtable on Corporate Risk Management

Against the backdrop of financial crisis, a distinguished group of academics and practitioners discusses the contribution of financial management and innovation to corporate growth and value, along with the pitfalls and unintended consequences of such innovation. The main focus of most panelists is the importance of a capital structure and risk management approach that complement the strategy and operations of the business. Instructive examples are provided by Judy Lewent, former CFO and head of strategic planning at Merck, and Lakshmi Shyam‐Sunder, director of finance and risk management at the International Finance Corporation. But if these represent successful applications of finance theory, what about the large number of cases where the use of derivatives and other innovations has led to high leverage and apparent risk management failures? Part of the current trouble, as pointed out by Andrew Lo, can be attributed to the failure of risk managers and their models to account for highly improbable events—the so‐called fat tails of the distribution. But, as Robert Merton suggests in closing, there is a more comprehensive explanation for today's problems: the tendency of market participants to respond to potentially risk‐reducing financial innovation by increasing their risk‐taking in other areas. “What we have here,” says Merton,

相似文献   

中国财政改革与经济增长实践

基于内生增长理论分析改革开放后历次财政变革与经济增长关系,并利用协整与回归分析检验该关系.结果表明:中国财政与经济增长具有长期稳定关系;前期财政变革强调财政激励效应,为中国市场经济奠定了制度基础;后期财政变革强调稳态增长效应,这使中央财政需有稳定财源,以保证其外部性生产要素充分供给;相比于地方财政的收敛增长效应,中央财政体现出稳态增长效应.