新三板、沪深股市间的波动溢出效应及动态相关性分析——基于BEKK/DCC-MVGARCH模型的实证研究

本文利用BEKK/DCC-MVGARCH模型分析了三板做市指数与沪深股市指数之间的波动溢出效应及动态相关性,发现三板做市指数标准差低于沪深股市,但其波动聚集效应较沪深股市更为显著;新三板与沪深股市之间波动溢出效应主要表现为单向的沪深股市传导至新三板市场;新三板对沪深股市上行及下跌的冲击反应是不对称的,新三板对沪深股市下跌冲击的反应更明显,而对沪深股市上行则表现出反应不足.因此,新三板定位为我国多层次资本市场的组成部分,但其对整个市场的影响力还非常弱,发展还很不成熟.建议加强对新三板市场投资者的风险教育,同时考虑适当降低合格投资者的准入门槛,活跃市场;更加注重从制度层面完善新三板市场,真正发挥其发现价值的功能,提高新三板在资本市场中的地位.     

沪深股市的波动性研究

本文以最新的上证综合指数和深圳成分指数为研究对象,运用GARCH模型对比分析沪深股市周收益率波动的动态特征,并对两个股市的波动特征进行了比较     

沪深股市的引导性关系研究

采用向量自回归修正模型、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解的方法,对上证指数、深证综合指数之间的互动性进行实证分析,结论是:沪深股市之间具有长期均衡关系;沪深股市溢出效应具有非对称性,深圳股市对外部冲击的反应要先于沪市,深指之走向和波动主要由自身趋势决定,而上证指数更倾向于受到深指的影响.     

中证兴证海峡沪深股票指数走势简评

正(2014年3月)2014年3月份沪深股市大盘震荡下跌,盘中个股走势还算活跃,目前大盘皆处于均线之下,特别是创业板、中小板领跌大盘,市场整体观望气氛较为浓厚。本月兴证海峡指数(000817)走势也呈现震荡盘整形态。兴证海峡指数指数最高点为915.83,最低点     

中证兴证海峡沪深股票指数走势简评(2012年7月)

<正>2011年7月,兴证海峡指数(000817)总体与沪深股市和中小板下行走势同步,最高点为849.31,最低点为763.41。7月份,兴证海峡指数表现低迷,最高日跌幅达2.92%。指数内个股下跌明显,少数个     

市场有望形成“双顶”

看好股市的基本运行方向,乐观估计,沪深300指数仍具有25%的上涨空间,对应3750点。不过,沪深股市能否在四季度形成向上的突破,仍然取决于我国经济景气的复苏程度。     

石化“双雄”:悬挂“孤岛”——AH溢价收窄 折价或成常态

近日沪深股市连续下跌,而香港市场则略有反弹,"一涨一跌"也使得AH股溢价指数创出新低。至9月9日收盘,共有11家AH股两地上市股票出现A股对H股折价现象。同时,恒生AH股溢价指数最终收报109.41点,盘中则再创2007年以来的新低,     

上攻受挫 大盘弱势调整

上周一,A股市场放量走强,上证综指逼近前期反弹高点;周二,沪深股市早盘振荡收高,午后市场曾有一波快速的小幅调整,但随后反弹迅速将两市指数推向盘中新高;周三,A股连续     

“非典”过后，如何择股

瘟疫为不可抗力因素的天灾,其对国民经济的运行产生影响是不可避免的,做为“国民经济晴雨表”的证券市场当然也会有所反映,近期沪深股市的弱势运行很大程度上可说归功于“SARS”了。那么“SARS”是否会对中国股市的运行产生根本性、质的影响呢?笔者认为不会,估计在经历短期冲击     

中证兴证海峡沪深股票指数走势筒评

2014年3月份沪深股市大盘震荡下跌．盘中个股走势还算活跃，目前大盘皆处于均线之下．特别是创业板、中小板领跌大盘，市场整体观望气氛较为浓厚。本月兴证海峡指数（000817）走势也呈现震荡盘整形态。兴证海峡指数指数最高点为915．83，最低点865．80，成份股中阳光城（000671）、福建水泥（6008020）、福耀玻璃（600660）等股票走势稍强，上升势头较为明显。     

教育与资本怎样的前景怎样的现实

来自政府的声音: "动员各种社会资源,发展教育" 此次论坛上财政部长助理张少春的发言是最受关注的发言之一.他的演讲传达出的信息有这样几方面:第一,谈到现实,他认为全社会对教育的巨大需求与我国公共投入不足已成为我国教育事业发展的突出矛盾.近年来,以公共部门投入为主,多渠道筹措教育经费的教育投入机制成为解决这一问题的重要途径,也使得公共部门与私营部门在教育领域的合作日益密切.第二,谈到前景,他认为,1.中国经济持续、快速的增长对高技能人才产生巨大的需求,这为私营部门的参与提供了广阔空间.2.随着公共财政职能的不断完善,财政资金将在各项教育事业中重新进行分配,进一步优化财政支出结构,提高资金的使用效率.在"十一五"期间,我国将把公共支出的重点转移到农村.我们将逐步把全体农村适龄儿童的义务教育全部纳入公共财政体制.     

Debt and Taxes and Uncertainty

With a graduated personal tax schedule, Miller showed that there could be an equilibrium debt supply for the corporate sector as a whole. In the presence of uncertainty there is also a unique debt/equity ratio for each individual firm, and this ratio is related to the firm's operational risk characteristics. However, if firms merge and spin off in response to tax incentives, the identity of firms is ambiguous and only the corporate sector is a meaningful construct. These arguments are developed in both discrete and continuous models that employ extensions of the arbitrage-free pricing theory.     

East and west and north and south : A preliminary model

The Brandt report and other proposals for a new North-South world order continue to be the focus of lively debate, yet it is often argued that little concrete has emerged from their recommendations. A major reason for this, the author argues, is that the East-West conflict component is not sufficiently taken into consideration-East-West tensions are a severe constraint on and a determining factor of North-South relations. Using influence diagrams, the author develops a flexible framework for discussion and assessment of N/S-E/W relations.     

Tournament-based incentives and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between tournament-based incentives, which are proxied by the difference between a firm's CEO pay and the median pay of the senior managers, and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that tournament-based incentives are positively related to firm acquisitiveness and acquiring firms' stock and operating performance. Further analysis indicates that positive acquisition performance increases the likelihood of the CEO being promoted from inside the acquiring firm. Our evidence is consistent with the view that tournament-based incentives motivate acquiring firms' managers to make greater efforts and take more risk that result in superior acquisition performance.     

Corporate Innovations and Mergers and Acquisitions

Using a large and unique patent‐merger data set over the period 1984 to 2006, we show that companies with large patent portfolios and low R&D expenses are acquirers, while companies with high R&D expenses and slow growth in patent output are targets. Further, technological overlap between firm pairs has a positive effect on transaction incidence, and this effect is reduced for firm pairs that overlap in product markets. We also show that acquirers with prior technological linkage to their target firms produce more patents afterwards. We conclude that synergies obtained from combining innovation capabilities are important drivers of acquisitions.     

Trust and cross-border mergers and acquisitions

A number of studies suggest that social trust matters for investment. Using different measures of trust from World Values Survey, we show that countries where people display higher levels of trust engage in more cross-border M&A activities. When they do, these acquirers pay lower premiums. To the extent that these acquirers also tend to engage in larger acquisitions as well, our findings suggest that a larger selection pool of potential targets and higher value targets enable these acquirers to negotiate for lower premiums. We do not find evidence of the significant effect for target country trust levels. Hence, trust may benefit those acquiring firms in cross-border transactions.     

Director gender and mergers and acquisitions

Does director gender influence CEO empire building? Does it affect the bid premium paid for target firms? Less overconfident female directors less overestimate merger gains. As a result, firms with female directors are less likely to make acquisitions and if they do, pay lower bid premia. Using acquisition bids by S&P 1500 companies during 1997–2009 we find that each additional female director is associated with 7.6% fewer bids, and each additional female director on a bidder board reduces the bid premium paid by 15.4%. Our findings support the notion that female directors help create shareholder value through their influence on acquisition decisions. We also discuss other possible interpretations of our findings.