基于动态内生性的董事会结构与公司绩效间的跨时期相互作用

在董事会结构与公司绩效间关系的研究中,动态内生性问题通常被忽略。本文以2002-2011年410家上市公司为样本,在动态内生性的框架下,运用动态面板的System GMM估计方法,研究了董事会结构与公司综合绩效间的关系。结果表明：董事会结构与公司绩效间存在动态内生性问题,当期董事会结构与公司绩效没有显著的相关性,前期的董事会结构与公司绩效间存在显著的正相关关系,且前期公司绩效对当期董事会规模产生了显著的正向的反馈效应,但前期公司绩效并未对当期董事会的独立性产生显著影响。     

Credit default swaps and the UK 2008–09 short sales ban

Most studies of the short sales ban of UK financial stocks from September 2008 to January 2009 fail to control for the UK’s worst ever banking crisis and the underlying increase in risk. This paper studies the ban’s impact on the 13 large financials with credit default swaps (CDS) and 20 smaller stocks without CDS. The results reveal that returns of banned stocks Granger cause CDS returns in the pre- and post-ban periods, but causality runs from CDS to stock returns during the ban period. Underlying risk proxied by the CDS probability of default increased during the ban and the immediate pre- and post-ban periods which highlights an endogeneity problem ignored in some studies. This increased risk provides a plausible rationale for why CDS and related equity bid-ask spreads - which increased during the ban period – failed to fall significantly in the post-ban period. Panel regression results indicate that probability of default was an important economic determinant of stock bid-ask spreads during the ban period. Finally, our results suggest that the ban offered direct price support for the smaller non-CDS stocks during the ban period and indirect support for CDS stocks from their pre-ban to their post-ban levels.     

中小企业集合债券总体信用风险度量研究

中小企业集合债券总体信用风险既包括系统风险产生的周期性违约风险,又包括相互关联关系导致的传染性违约风险。首先通过对因素模型的改进构建模型Ⅰ,研究集合债券的周期性违约风险;在此基础上引入违约传染建立模型Ⅱ,分析违约传染对违约概率及违约相关性的影响,研究集合债券的总体信用风险。最后基于模型Ⅱ进行算例研究,得出结论：企业间的相互关联关系降低了其1次违约概率,增加了其多次违约概率即违约相关性。     

股权结构、动态内生性与公司代理成本

本文以716家上市公司为样本,在动态内生性的框架下,运用动态面板的系统GMM估计方法,同时考虑了三种内生性,以动态性的视角,不仅研究了当期股权结构对当期代理成本的影响,还研究了股权结构与代理成本间的跨时期相互作用。通过研究,我们发现：（1）不仅当期股权结构对当期代理成本有影响,而且前期股权结构也对当期代理成本有影响,股权结构对代理成本的影响有持续期;（2）前期代理成本对当期股权结构有反馈效应;（3）股权结构与代理成本间存在动态内生性。     

A first-passage-time model under regime-switching market environment

In this paper, we suggest a first-passage-time model which can explain default probability and default correlation dynamics under stochastic market environment. We add a Markov regime-switching market condition to the first-passage-time model of Zhou [Zhou, C., 2001. An analysis of default correlations and multiple defaults. Review of Financial Studies 14, 555–576]. Using this model, we try to explain various relationship between default probability, default correlation, and market condition. We also suggest a valuation method for credit default swap (CDS) with (or without) counterparty default risk (CDR) and basket default swap under this model.Our numerical results provide us with several meaningful implications. First, default swap spread is higher in economic recession than in economic expansion across default swap maturity. Second, as the difference of asset return volatility between under bear market and under bull market increases, CDS spread increases regardless of maturity. Third, the bigger the intensity shifting from bull market to bear market, the higher the spread for both CDS without CDR and basket default swap.     

Default risk and equity returns: Australian evidence

We test whether default risk is related to equity returns using the Fama and MacBeth [Fama, E.F., MacBeth, J., 1973. Risk, return, and equilibrium: empirical tests. Journal of Political Economy 81, 607–636.] regression framework. The proxy we use for default risk is the default probability obtained from option-based models. Our findings show that default probability is negatively related to returns. While we find that size and book-to-market are related to default risk, the ability of these variables to explain cross-sectional variation in returns is not because they are proxying default risk. Further, our evidence suggests that the negative relationship between default probability and returns is not due to a leverage, volatility or momentum effect.     

企业风险异质性、贷款利率与信贷违约风险——基于银行信贷微观数据

通过某股份制商业银行2010-2015年贷款数据,讨论不同风险贷款企业、贷款利率与信贷违约之间的关系.结果表明:贷款利率与贷款违约之间呈现U型关系;高风险等级企业与贷款违约之间正相关且显著;无论是高风险等级企业还是低风险等级企业与银行贷款利率之间均呈现负相关且显著,说明贷款利率的抑制现象依然存在.从参数估计值来看,低风险等级企业贷款利率要低于高风险等级企业;高风险企业与贷款利率交叉项与违约之间呈现负相关且显著,说明高风险企业通过贷款利率渠道确实可以降低信贷违约概率.     

Default and Recovery Risk Dependencies in a Simple Credit Risk Model

This paper provides evidence for the relationship between credit quality, recovery rate, and correlation. The paper finds that rating grade, rating shift, and macroeconomic factors provide a highly significant explanation for default risk and recovery risk of US bond issues. The empirical data suggest that default and recovery processes are highly correlated. Therefore, a joint approach is required for estimating time‐varying default probabilities and recovery rates that are conditional on default. This paper develops and applies such a model.     

National culture and corporate risk-taking around the world

This paper examines the effect of national culture on corporate risk-taking worldwide. Specifically, we focus on one particular cultural trait – Individualism – a culture dimension linked to risk-taking and overconfidence. Using a sample of 48 countries from 1998 to 2019 (a total of 111,697 firm-year observations), we document a positive relationship between Individualism and corporate risk-taking. This result is robust to potential endogeneity concerns, alternative default horizons, an alternative measure for corporate risk-taking, and alternative measures of Individualism.     

The impact of diverse measures of default risk on UK stock returns

A number of recent papers examine the relationship between default risk and equity returns, and the results are mixed. These studies employ different measures of default risk and we find that correlations between eight diverse measures of default risk tend to be less than 50%. Nonetheless, we find that the relationship between stock returns and diverse measures of default risk tends to be consistent; default risk is a significant determinant of stock returns and this relationship is “hump backed”, as predicted by Garlappi and Yan (2011).     

An Estimation Model for the Term Structure of Yield Spread

An estimation model for term structure of yield spread has become an extremely important subject to evaluate securities with default risk. By Duffie and Singleton model, yield spread was explained by two factors, namely collection rate and default probability. An estimation of the collection rate is given from historical earnings data, but estimation of default probability is known to be a remaining problem.There are some approaches to express default probability. One of them is to describe it through hazard process, and the other is to represent it by risk neutral transition probability matrix of credit-rating class. Some models that use Gaussian type hazard process or Vasicek type hazard process have already constructed.An advantage of evaluation using a rating transition probability matrix is that it is easy to obtain an image of movement of the credit-rating class. We do not need to show the calculation basis of the threshold or an assumption for distribution of prospective yield spread. But the model that uses the risk neutral transition probability matrix has not established yet, because of the computational difficulty required to estimate large number of the parameters.At first, for the purposes of this article, we will estimate the term structure of credit spreads results from the possibility of future defaults. It is assumed that credit risk is specified as a discrete-state Markov chain. And we construct a model which can be used to estimate the baseline transition matrix of the credit-rating class, risk-adjusting factors, industrial drift factors, corporate drift factors and recovery ratio, from yield spreads for individual bond. This enables us to compute the implied term structure from market data. We are capable of computing the implied term structure from market date by this process. Next, we will provide a valuation model for the term structure of yield spread.     

The joint determinants of cash holdings and debt maturity: the case for financial constraints

We examine the joint choices of cash holdings and debt maturity for a large sample of firms for the 1985–2013 period. We find that there is a positive relation between debt maturity and cash holdings. Our results hold after taking into account endogeneity among leverage, debt maturity, and cash holding. We posit that this positive relationship will be found among firms facing financial constraints and we find support for this hypothesis. Our results are robust after we control for agency problems, international taxation, bank loan liquidity covenants and default risk.     

Firm-level political risk and distance-to-default

This study provides the first empirical evidence of the relationship between firm-level political risk and distance-to-default. Based on our examination of a quarterly dataset of 2727 U.S. firms covering a period from January 2002 to April 2019, we conclude that firm-level political risk is negatively associated with distance-to-default. We document three economic mechanisms through which political risk increases default risk: information asymmetry, organizational capital, and investment growth. The evidence indicates that the association is more pronounced for firms with low analysts’ forecast accuracy, organizational capital, and investment growth. Employing hand-collected data, we also reveal that firms are able to exploit their corporate lobbying to immunize themselves against default risk. Our findings are robust to different endogeneity identifications, including a natural experiment, alternative distance-to-default proxies, and different sub-samples. Overall, we present novel evidence of an adverse impact of firm-level political risk on distance-to-default and how such a negative effect can be mitigated.     

How Does the Use of Credit Default Swaps Affect Firm Risk and Value? Evidence from US Life and Property/Casualty Insurance Companies

This study uses a unique credit default swap (CDS) transaction data set of insurers to examine the effects of CDS usage on the risk profile and firm value of US insurance companies for the period 2001‐2009. Applying a Heckman two‐stage model to adjust for the potential endogeneity of CDS usage with respect to firm risk and firm value, we find consistent evidence that the utilization of CDS for income generation purposes is associated with greater market risk, deterioration of financial performance, and lower firm value, for both Life and Property/Casualty insurers.     

Is there any dependence between consumer credit line utilization and default probability on a term loan? Evidence from bank-customer data

We study the relationship between two financial instruments through the simultaneous analysis of personal credit line utilization and default probability on a personal term loan. We model both dependent variables in a system of simultaneous equations and find strong evidence of dependence between the two financial instruments. Individuals in the default state draw their credit line by 9 percentage points more and, depending on the specification, a 10 percentage point increase in credit line utilization decreases the default probability by 0.09 to 0.41 percentage points, on a base default rate of 1.08%. This provides evidence that borrowers may use the liquidity of the credit line to pay down the term loan in periods of financial distress and suggests that banks should manage both financial instruments simultaneously.     

The Maturity Rat Race

Why do some firms, especially financial institutions, finance themselves so short‐term? We show that extreme reliance on short‐term financing may be the outcome of a maturity rat race: a borrower may have an incentive to shorten the maturity of an individual creditor's debt contract because this dilutes other creditors. In response, other creditors opt for shorter maturity contracts as well. This dynamic toward short maturities is present whenever interim information is mostly about the probability of default rather than the recovery in default. For borrowers that cannot commit to a maturity structure, equilibrium financing is inefficiently short‐term.     

Valuation of insurers’ contingent capital with counterparty risk and price endogeneity

This study develops a structural framework to value insurers’ contingent capital with counterparty risk (CR) and overcomes the problem of price endogeneity (PE) in the valuation model. Our results on the focal contingent capital instrument – catastrophe equity put option (CatEPut) – indicate that prices can be significantly overestimated without considering CR and be significantly underestimated without considering PE. This study also examines how CatEPuts affect the buyer’s probability of default (PD). Our results show that buying a CatEPut lowers the PD for high-risk insurers, but not necessarily so for low-risk insurers; however, without taking CR and PE into account, one may significantly overestimate the credit enhancement provided by the CatEPuts.     

An Experimental Study of Bond Market Pricing

An important feature of bond markets is the relationship between the initial public offering (IPO) price and the probability that the issuer defaults. On the one hand, the default probability affects the IPO price; on the other hand, the IPO price affects the default probability. It is a priori unclear whether agents can competitively price such assets. Our paper is the first to explore this question. To do so, we use laboratory experiments. We develop two flexible bond market models that are easily implemented in the laboratory. We find that subjects learn to price the bonds well after only a few repetitions.     

Does the threat of takeover affect default risk?

We examine the impact of the threat of takeovers on default risk. Using a sample of 50,189 firm-year observations for US firms over the period 1990–2015, we find that the threat of takeovers has a negative relation with default risk. We use difference-in-difference analysis to address potential endogeneity concerns and propensity score matching to control for self-selection bias. The results are robust to alternative measures of default risk and exclusion of the dot com and financial crisis periods. Our results also hold after controlling for Governance Index and Entrenchment Index. We identify improvement in performance and earnings quality in response to the threat of takeovers as channels underlying our main result. The effect of the threat of takeovers on default risk is more pronounced for firms with opaque information environment and low institutional ownership. Our findings provide important insights for the market for corporate control as a disciplining mechanism in reducing default risk.