Book Review

This paper investigates the role of intellectual capital information (ICI) in sell-side analysts’ fundamental analysis and valuation of companies. Using in-depth semi-structured interviews, it penetrates the black box of analysts’ valuation decision-making by identifying and conceptualising the mechanisms and rationales by which ICI is integrated within their valuation decision processes. We find that capital market participants are not ambivalent to ICI, and ICI is used: (1) to form analysts’ perceptions of the overall quality, strengths and future prospects of companies; (2) in deriving valuation model inputs; (3) in setting price targets and making investment recommendations; and (4) as an important and integral element in analyst–client communications. We show that: there is a ‘pecking order’ of mechanisms for incorporating ICI in valuations, based on quantifiability; IC valuation is grounded in valuation theory; there are designated entry points in the valuation process for ICI; and a number of factors affect analysts’ ICI use in valuation. We also identify a need to redefine ‘value-relevant’ ICI to include non-price-sensitive information; acknowledge the boundedness and contextuality of analysts’ rationality and motives of their ICI use; and the important role of analyst–client meetings for ICI communication.     

Importance of Intellectual Capital Information: A Study of Australian Analyst Reports

This study explores the types of intellectual capital (IC) information considered important by analysts. It uses content analysis to examine IC information in 64 initiating coverage reports written on Australian listed companies. Results reveal that analysts consider several types of IC information to be important from a firm valuation perspective, many of which had not previously been examined in capital markets research. It was also found that the relative importance placed on types of IC varies by sector. Information on relational capital and company management was most commonly used within analyst reports, whilst information on employees, working environment and structural capital was used least frequently.     

The use of intellectual capital information in investment decisions: An empirical study using analyst reports

Do financial analysts convey intellectual capital information in their recommendations? This study of a sample of analyst reports on large, listed Spanish companies provides some evidence on the question. Analysts usually report information regarding a company's strategy, customers, and processes; they less often provide information about research, development, and innovation. When controlling for endogeneity, we find that certain firm characteristics appear to influence the use of intellectual capital information. Analysts use this information in the case of highly profitable companies. The results also show a significant effect of growth opportunities on intellectual capital disclosure by financial analysts.     

Audit quality and properties of analysts’ information environment

We consider how audit quality impacts sell‐side analysts’ information environment. Using the method outlined by Barron et al., we examine whether higher audit quality is associated with differences in the weight analysts place on common information relative to private information, as well as the extent to which audit quality separately impacts the precision of analysts’ private and common information. Our results show that, in instances where analysts revise their earnings forecasts for year t+1 shortly after the release of year t earnings, higher audit quality results in analysts placing more weight on public information. The precision of private (as well as public) information is improved. These results extend our understanding of how audit quality impacts on attributes of analysts’ forecasts and provides support for the argument that audit quality has important capital market implications.     

Inside the “Black Box” of Sell‐Side Financial Analysts

Our objective is to penetrate the “black box” of sell‐side financial analysts by providing new insights into the inputs analysts use and the incentives they face. We survey 365 analysts and conduct 18 follow‐up interviews covering a wide range of topics, including the inputs to analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, the value of their industry knowledge, the determinants of their compensation, the career benefits of Institutional Investor All‐Star status, and the factors they consider indicative of high‐quality earnings. One important finding is that private communication with management is a more useful input to analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock recommendations than their own primary research, recent earnings performance, and recent 10‐K and 10‐Q reports. Another notable finding is that issuing earnings forecasts and stock recommendations that are well below the consensus often leads to an increase in analysts’ credibility with their investing clients. We conduct cross‐sectional analyses that highlight the impact of analyst and brokerage characteristics on analysts’ inputs and incentives. Our findings are relevant to investors, managers, analysts, and academic researchers.     

Information about bank intangibles,analyst information intermediation,and the role of knowledge and social forces in the ‘market for information’

Although developments in the sell-side analyst literature have revealed the role of intellectual capital (IC) in analysts’ work, the whole information intermediation progress of IC remains a “black box”. This paper develops an analyst information intermediation model, illustrating how ‘soft’ information changes through analyst acquisition, processing and disclosure of information. Bourdieu’s ideas of habitus, field and capital are used to develop our explanation of the analyst information intermediation model. We argue that the combination of empirical evidence and theoretical explanation provides a new and more comprehensive way to improve understanding of the role of analysts within knowledge and social contexts.     

Do banks care about analysts' forecasts when designing loan contracts?

We investigate whether banks rely on the information content in equity analysts’ annual earnings forecasts when assessing the risk of potential borrowers. While a long literature finds that analysts provide useful information to market participants, it is not clear that banks, which have access to privileged information, would benefit from publicly available analysts’ forecasts. If, however, banks do rely on this information, then more precise private information in earnings forecasts may inform banks. We focus our analysis on the requirement of collateral because it is a direct measure of default risk, whereas other loan terms such as interest spread and debt covenants can also protect against other risks, such as asset misappropriation. The direct link between collateral and default risk allows us to examine whether information from analysts is relevant to banks when designing loan contracts. Consistent with our predictions, we find that higher precision of the private information in analysts’ earnings forecasts is associated with a lower likelihood of requiring collateral, and this effect is larger when a borrower does not have a prior relationship with the lender or their accounting or credit quality is low. We also find that this association disappears after the implementation of Regulation FD, consistent with this regulation reducing analysts’ access to private information.     

The Economic Significance of Long‐Term Plans

The authors summarize the findings of their event study of the capital market reactions to an inaugural set of 17 CEO presentations of their ‘long‐term plans’ to institutional investors. The findings show that, although sell‐side analysts appear unresponsive to such plans, both trading volumes and stock prices exhibit significant abnormal reactions to the presentations, providing suggestive evidence that the communication of such plans conveys ‘value‐relevant’ information to investors with longer time horizons. Although based on an admittedly small sample, these findings shed light on the promise of long‐term plans and have been corroborated by analysis of the market response to the presentations of 10 more companies since the study was conducted. The authors also provide the outlines of a ‘content framework’ designed to help companies put together effective corporate plans and other long‐term disclosures. The framework is organized around nine main ‘themes,’ including policies governing capital allocation, corporate governance, and human capital development, as well as the statement of corporate purpose. After applying this framework to the 17 CEO presentations, the authors find that the more specific and forward‐looking the information disclosed in these long‐term plans, the more positive the capital market reaction.     

Tagging the triggers: an empirical analysis of information events prompting sell-side analyst reports

In order to fulfill their function as information intermediaries in capital markets, sell-side equity analysts regularly issue updated forecasts on the stocks they cover. Quite often, the publication of (revised) analysts’ reports is subject to certain trigger events such as the publication of annual figures or the announcement of an upcoming merger. In this exploratory study, we develop a two-step procedure to identify the core events that trigger the release of analysts’ reports on companies that constitute the Dow Jones EuroSTOXX50 index during the three-year period from 2004 to 2006. These can be grouped into Financial Disclosures, Corporate Management, Corporate Strategy, Business Activity, Operating Environment and Share. The results suggest that sell-side analysts attach great importance to non-financial information events when transforming their earnings estimates into valuation forecasts and stock recommendations. Additionally, we link the information events identified as reasons of issuance to the summary measures disclosed in the reports in order to investigate the relationship between the report trigger and associated analyst reaction. Our findings indicate that the forecasting activity of sell-side analysts is greatly influenced by forward-looking statements made by management, strategy-related news flow, and non-company-specific information relating to the covered firm’s operating environment.     

The Beta Dilemma in Emerging Markets

In principle, emerging markets analysts employ the same analytical framework when estimating the value of businesses as their counterparts in developed economies: they forecast future cash flows and discount those to the present with appropriate costs of capital that are estimated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) framework. But in practice, emerging market analysts have a more complicated job because the task of estimating costs of equity in emerging markets is more difficult. Whereas developed economies have an abundance of historical data on overall stock market movements, industry share price behavior, and many individual share price histories, emerging market economies often do not. There may be no comparable local firms that are publicly traded—or if there are, their CAPM betas may be unreliable. And if analysts instead use the beta of a U.S. competitor as a surrogate for the emerging market beta, they face the question of whether domestic betas are equivalent across borders. As a consequence, appraisers of emerging market companies confront a “beta dilemma.” Part of this is a data problem stemming from shorter share price histories in emerging markets and the absence of publicly traded companies in some industries. In such cases, analysts may be inclined to use industry betas calculated with U.S. share prices as a substitute. But this creates an equivalence problem—the possibility, as confirmed by the author's research, that domestic U.S. and emerging market betas are not statistically equivalent for most industries. The author proposes a solution to this problem that involves grouping emerging markets into a single, distinctive asset class that allows for reliable calculations of industry betas. He also suggests ways of testing emerging market industry betas to determine whether they are statistically comparable.     

The Appraisal of Ordinary Shares by Investment Analysts in the UK and Germany

This paper reports the findings of a two-country survey of the approaches to and information used by investment analysts. It examines the changes in the ordinary share appraisal approaches adopted by UK analysts over the past decade, and investigates the differences between British and German analysts in share appraisal methods, goals and information sources. The principal findings are that (i) deregulation and the introduction of new technology to the UK market has had little impact on the equity appraisal approach employed by analysts other than the greater reliance placed on personal contact with companies, and (ii) UK analysts are no more ‘short-termist’ than their German counterparts in assessing ordinary shares.     

Does the classification of intangibles matter? An equivalence testing

Many studies confirm that intangibles have future economic benefits included in them. This study examined whether analysts consider intangibles to be similar in economic value, regardless of the accounting treatment assigned to them. It conducted four experiments by providing 26 analysts with future earnings potentials, and asking them to forecast stock prices for three companies over three firms’ continuous years. One firm had an internally produced brand, the second company had a bought brand, and the third firm had an internally produced brand and bought brands. These three firms were used in four forecasting environments designed for this study. Each forecasting environment constituted an experiment. Each forecasting environment differed, with capital market information specific to each firm. Provided with this information, the analysts forecast stock prices for the three firms in each of the four experiments. Comparing the forecast stock prices, the study found that the two brand classes had similar influence on analysts’ stock pricing forecasts, to infer them as equivalent in economic value, in each of the four forecasting environments.     

衍生工具应用能改善资本市场信息环境吗？——基于分析师预测行为的视角

本文通过文本搜索获得企业衍生工具运用情况,在此基础上研究了企业衍生工具应用对分析师跟踪和预测信息结构的影响,并且进一步区分了明星分析师和非明星分析师预测行为的差异。研究结果表明,企业运用衍生工具会导致分析师跟踪数量显著减少,公共信息精度下降,从而对资本市场信息环境产生负面影响。但是,进一步我们发现分析师跟踪数量的减少和公共信息精度的下降是由非明星分析师所致,明星分析师跟踪数量和公共信息精度没有显著变化,私有信息精度反而增加;而非明星分析师跟踪数量显著减少,公共信息精度明显下降。本文的结论有助于我们进一步理解衍生工具应用对资本市场信息环境的影响,以及分析师在信息传递中的作用机制。     

年报可读性对分析师盈余预测的影响

利用2010—2017年上市公司A股相关数据,本文研究了企业年报文本信息可读性对分析师盈余预测的影响。研究发现,企业年报文本信息可读性越低,分析师关注水平、预测质量也越低。进一步研究发现,较高的机构投资者持股水平能够显著缓解年报可读性对分析师关注的影响,但是没有发现机构投资者持股改善分析师预测质量的证据。高质量的审计以及高水平的信息披露质量评级可以改善企业的信息环境,从而有效缓解年报文本信息可读性对分析师盈余预测的影响。研究结论为企业年报文本信息可读性影响资本市场信息解读和传播效率提供了证据,有助于监管部门重视企业年报文本信息披露监管法律法规的制定和完善。     

高铁能提升分析师盈余预测的准确度吗?——来自上市公司的证据

本文搜集了2006-2016年中国201个地级市高铁开通的情况,并匹配了A股1,244家上市公司的面板数据,利用双重差分(DID)模型,研究了高铁开通对证券分析师盈余预测的影响。研究结果显示:高铁通车之后,分析师盈余预测的精准度显著提升,分歧度和乐观度显著下降。进一步考察高铁发挥作用的内在机制,发现高铁开通显著增加了对沿线公司进行实地调研的分析师数量及人均调研次数。高铁开通对分析师盈余预测的影响存在异质性,影响主要体现在信息处理成本较低的企业、公司治理水平较好的企业以及分析师面临买方压力较小的企业中。动态地来看,高铁开通对分析师盈余预测的影响主要体现在通车两年以后。此外,在利用工具变量法、控制飞机出行以减少内生性问题之后,上述结论仍稳健。这说明高铁的开通改善了资本市场的信息环境,使得分析师能够更好地扮演信息中介的角色。文章较早研究了高铁开通对分析师盈余预测的影响,揭示了高铁在金融市场的信息传导效应。     

The Impact of Regulation FD on Institutional Investor Informativeness

Although there is conflicting evidence and resulting skepticism regarding the value provided by professional investment management, Gibson, Safieddine, and Sonti (2004) document institutional investor informativeness relative to seasoned equity offering (SEO) purchases. We find that Regulation Fair Disclosure's significantly reduces institutional investors’ ability to identify mispriced SEO firms. Informativeness is diminished not by investors following analysts who have experienced a reduction in forecasting accuracy, but limiting investors’ direct access to private information. This information loss is replaced by reliance on a greater number of public information variables resulting in less consideration for prudence proxies and a liquidity motive and more for higher price momentum.     

电子科技企业也可能会有智能负债

学术界及实业界普遍承认知识型科技企业拥有无形的资产,却鲜少提出或验证知识型科技企业也可能存在着无形的负债。本研究引进“智能资产”与“智能负债”的概念,以一完整的含智能资本的资产负债表,探讨智能资产、智能负债与智能资本之互动关系,解释为何某些拥有知识创新资产的企业却存在市价低于净值的现象;并以台湾电子信息业上市公司作为研究样本,使用市价净值差额法及超额报酬折现法来测度其智能资本,用以验证科技企业也可能存在智能负债而产生负的智能资本,进而阐明“智能资产”与“智能负债”在本质上是企业动态营运过程的产物,其所能创造的价值或产生的负价值会随景气环境的变化而增减。因此,每个知识型企业都应妥善厘订智能资本的管理策略,才能不断创造与蓄积更多的智能资本,扩增企业的真实价值。     

HOW DO CFOs MAKE CAPITAL BUDGETING AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS?

This paper summarizes the findings of the authors' recent survey of 392 CFOs about the current practice of corporate finance, with main focus on the areas of capital budgeting and capital structure. The findings of the survey are predictable in some respects but surprising in others. For example, although the discounted cash flow method taught in our business schools is much more widely used as a project evaluation method than it was ten or 20 years ago, the popularity of the payback method continues despite shortcomings that have been pointed out for years. In setting capital structure policy, CFOs appear to place less emphasis on formal leverage targets that reflect the trade‐off between the costs and benefits of debt than on “informal” criteria such as credit ratings and financial flexibility. And despite the efforts of academics to demonstrate that EPS dilution per se should be irrelevant to stock valuation, avoiding dilution of EPS was the most cited reason for companies reluctance to issue equity. But despite such apparent contradictions between theory and practice, finance theory does seem to be gaining ground. For example, large companies were much more likely than their smaller counterparts to use DCF and NPV techniques, while small firms still tended to rely heavily on the payback criterion. And a majority of the CFOs of the large companies said they had “strict” or “somewhat strict” target debt ratios, whereas only a third of small firms claimed to have such targets. What does the future hold? On the one hand, the authors suggest that we are likely to see greater corporate acceptance of certain aspects of financial theory, including the use of real options techniques for evaluating corporate investments. But we are also likely to see further modifications and refinements of the theory, particularly with respect to smaller companies that have limited access to capital markets.     

The Accessibility and Perceived Usefulness of Information on the Capital Expenditure Intentions of UK Quoted Companies

This paper presents the results of two questionnaire surveys concerned with the accessibility and perceived usefulness of information relating to the capital expenditure plans of UK companies. The evidence presented indicates that such information is perceived as potentially useful for external investment purposes by analysts and by corporate financial managers. Moreover, it would appear that analysts do take steps to obtain such information. With regard to accessibility there would appear to be considerable cross-firm variation in the extent to which such information is made available to external investors. The findings also suggest that companies are more likely to disclose news about their capital expenditure intentions (a) when their finance directors perceive the information to be useful to external shareholders, (b) where there is an associated requirement to raise additional external finance, and (c) where the news relates to an increase, as opposed to a decrease, in capital expenditure. These findings are related to the literature on the economics of financial disclosure.     

分析师为什么选择性的发布现金流预测?——基于信息需求理论的实证研究

分析师在对公司发布盈余预测的同时,还对一些公司发布了现金流预测。分析师为什么仅针对某些公司发布现金流预测?其动因何在?本文基于信息需求理论对上述问题进行了研究,研究发现,分析师针对现金流信息需求高的公司发布现金流预测的可能性更大。进一步发现,分析师更可能对非国有控股的公司发布现金流预测。本文首次基于我国独特的制度背景,研究分析师选择性发布现金流预测的动因问题。本文的结论有助于加深对分析师行为的理解,并对投资者决策具有一定的参考价值。