Capital income taxation and economic growth in open economies

Can reductions in domestic capital income taxes attract foreign capital and, at the same time, foster economic growth? Using a two-country overlapping generations model with endogenous growth and internationally mobile capital, this paper shows that the effect of domestic capital taxes on the international allocation of capital and on the rate of economic growth do not necessarily go in the same direction. A country can attract capital by reducing its taxes, but this may lower the rate of economic growth depending on the elasticity of saving to the net-of-tax interest rate and on the effect of taxes on domestic factor productivity.     

Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy

Is there a link between capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a country with a floating currency? Shocks to capital flows into a small open economy lead to volatility in asset prices and credit supply. To lessen the impact of capital flows on financial instability, a central bank finds it optimal to use the domestic interest rate to “manage” the capital account. Capital account restrictions affect the behavior of optimal monetary policy following shocks to the foreign interest rate. Capital controls allow optimal monetary policy to focus less on the foreign interest rate and more on domestic variables.     

Can Capital Income Taxes Survive in Open Economies?

Optimal-tax theory forecasts that small open economies should not tax capital income. Yet, countries do tax capital income. Why the inconsistency? This paper shows that use of the double-taxation convention, whereby governments credit taxes paid abroad against domestic taxes, helps explain this inconsistency. In particular, capital income will be taxed if a dominant capital exporter acts as a Stackelberg leader when setting its tax policy. Due to the convention, other countries will then tax capital imports, making it attractive for the dominant capital exporter to tax capital income. Without a dominant capital exporter, however, the model still forecasts no capital-income taxes.     

消费信贷与家庭人力资本投资

已有丰富的文献考察了消费信贷对家庭消费和投资行为的影响，但少有研究关注其对家庭人力资本投资的影响。家庭人力资本投资对于人力资本积累、经济高质量发展至关重要。基于此，本文考察了信用卡使用对家庭人力资本投资的影响及其影响机制，主要发现如下：信用卡使用显著增加了家庭人力资本投资，且这一效应具有长期动态影响并对城市、高收入、高教育程度家庭影响更为显著，这意味着信用卡消费信贷可能会增加人力资本不平等。进一步研究发现，家庭会增加劳动力供给来应对人力资本支出的增加。机制分析表明，信用卡使用主要通过增加家庭消费投资、促进消费升级、缓解家庭预算约束三种途径促进家庭人力资本投资。在风险可控的前提下，引导消费信贷流向有利于实体经济发展的领域，可助力于消费升级与人力资本积累，从而为经济发展提供新动能。     

The Taxation of Capital Gains When the Cash Component of Income Is Taxed

Does an‘income’ as opposed to a‘consumption-type’ or cash flow tax require a separate capital gains tax in addition to a tax on the cash component of income? Contrary to those who have adopted a Fisherian approach to this subject, the answer is shown to be ‘yes’. The misunderstanding arose from the mistaken use of NPVs of tax payments to calculate effective tax rates without controlling for the taxpayer's consumption stream. The absence of a capital gains tax of an‘ideal’ type initially reduces tax liabilities as systematic capital gains are artificially generated. Eventually, the horizontal inequity is converted into a tax-induced investment distortion.     

Intangible investment and Ramsey capital taxation

The standard analysis of optimal fiscal policy aggregates different types of assets into a unique capital good and all types of capital taxes into a unique capital tax. This paper considers a disaggregated framework: an economy with corporate and dividend taxes, where firms invest in both tangible and intangible assets (which can be expensed or sweat). In our setup, firms can always respond to changes in the timing of taxation. We find that the optimal long-run policy features zero corporate taxes and positive dividend taxes, with labor and dividend taxes being identical. Moreover, the initial capital levy is relatively small.     

美国货币政策溢出效应、中国资产价格波动与资本账户管理

本文以2016年美国加息事件为背景,研究美国货币政策对中国资本流动、资产价格和宏观经济的影响。基于小国开放动态随机一般均衡模型,本文梳理了美国货币政策溢出效应的具体传导渠道,发现国外利率升高后,资本流动具有外部性,导致国内资产价格下跌,其通过金融加速器进一步使国内投资下降、资产价格进一步下跌,从而使得国内资产预期回报进一步下降,加剧资本外流。基于政策和福利分析,本文发现资本账户管理可以有效缓解国外利率冲击对经济波动的影响,同时会提高货币政策的独立性,但也会影响国民财富的最优配置。因此,最优的资本账户管理应同时兼顾宏观审慎和效率两个方面。     

贸易摩擦、宏观经济波动与经济开放程度的选择

本文构建一个包含关税冲击以及外汇风险溢价的两国开放经济DSGE模型,创新地揭示了关税冲击造成实际汇率波动的“直接效应”与“间接效应”,刻画了关税变动、贸易条件与实际汇率之间的动态关系与作用机制。我们深入分析了不同经济开放程度下贸易摩擦造成的宏观经济波动以及经济福利损失。模拟结果表明,在一定贸易开放程度下,外国加收关税一方面会导致本国贸易条件恶化,引发出口及产出下降;另一方面会导致本国汇率贬值,引发出口及产出增长。关税冲击发生后短期中汇率贬值效应占优,本国产出会出现小幅上升,随后贸易条件恶化效应逐步显现,产出持续下降。福利分析结果表明,本国适度提升贸易开放度,虽然经济福利损失会小幅上升,但福利损失增加幅度小于外国,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对优势;如果本国过度提高贸易开放度,则会导致本国福利损失大幅增加,并且大于外国福利损失增幅,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对劣势。因此,应适度逐步有序地提升贸易开放度。此外,本国适度推进资本账户开放的政策能够改善贸易条件,促进本国经济增长。     

Capital gains tax and the capital asset pricing model

This paper develops a version of the Capital Asset Pricing Model that views dividend imputation as affecting company tax and assumes differential taxation of capital gains and ordinary income. These taxation issues aside, the model otherwise rests on the standard assumptions including full segmentation of national capital markets. It also treats dividend policy as exogenously determined. Estimates of the cost of equity based on this model are then compared with estimates based on the version of the CAPM typically applied in Australia, which differs only in assuming equality of the tax rates on capital gains and ordinary income. The differences between the estimates can be material. In particular, with a high dividend yield, allowance for differential taxation can result in an increase of two to three percentage points in the estimated cost of equity. The overall result obtained here carries over to a dividend equilibrium, in which firms choose a dividend policy that is optimal relative to the assumed tax structure.     

On the time-consistency of optimal capital taxes

This paper studies the time-inconsistency problem of optimal capital taxes. In the absence of full-commitment, it is well known that debt restructuring cannot solve the time-inconsistency problem for economies with a private stock of capital. We re-examine this result by exploring the role of institutional delays in government policies. We show that, when the implementation of government policy requires time, debt restructuring can enforce commitment to the optimal capital taxes. We conclude that, since institutional delays characterize democratic decision making, the time-inconsistency problem of capital taxes is not so severe.     

Capital controls and optimal Chinese monetary policy

China׳s external policies, including capital controls, managed exchange rates, and sterilized interventions, constrain its monetary policy options for maintaining macroeconomic stability following external shocks. We study optimal monetary policy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that incorporates these “Chinese characteristics”. The model highlights a monetary policy tradeoff between domestic price stability and costly sterilization. The same DSGE framework allows us to evaluate the welfare implications of alternative liberalization policies. Capital account and exchange rate liberalization would have allowed the Chinese central bank to better stabilize the external shocks experienced during the global financial crisis.     

Taxing Internationally Mobile Individuals—A Case of Countervailing Incentives

With internationally mobile labour and the abolition of national border controls, the individual may not only have private information about his skill level (adverse selection), but also about the length of time he resides and works in the home country (moral hazard) and about his foreign income. To reduce domestic income taxes, the individual has an incentive to understate his domestic utility and to exaggerate the utility he could obtain by spending additional time abroad. Under the reasonable assumption that these are positively correlated, incentives are countervailing. The optimal government policy may be implemented by a tax schedule containing negative, zero, and positive marginal income tax rates.     

贸易摩擦、宏观经济波动与经济开放程度的选择

本文构建一个包含关税冲击以及外汇风险溢价的两国开放经济DSGE模型,创新地揭示了关税冲击造成实际汇率波动的“直接效应”与“间接效应”,刻画了关税变动、贸易条件与实际汇率之间的动态关系与作用机制。我们深入分析了不同经济开放程度下贸易摩擦造成的宏观经济波动以及经济福利损失。模拟结果表明,在一定贸易开放程度下,外国加收关税一方面会导致本国贸易条件恶化,引发出口及产出下降;另一方面会导致本国汇率贬值,引发出口及产出增长。关税冲击发生后短期中汇率贬值效应占优,本国产出会出现小幅上升,随后贸易条件恶化效应逐步显现,产出持续下降。福利分析结果表明,本国适度提升贸易开放度,虽然经济福利损失会小幅上升,但福利损失增加幅度小于外国,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对优势;如果本国过度提高贸易开放度,则会导致本国福利损失大幅增加,并且大于外国福利损失增幅,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对劣势。因此,应适度逐步有序地提升贸易开放度。此外,本国适度推进资本账户开放的政策能够改善贸易条件,促进本国经济增长。     

亚洲新兴经济体国际资本流动驱动因素研究——基于GMM模型的实证分析

理解资本流入的驱动因素,对于设计一个有效的资本流动管理政策框架至关重要。本文研究了1998年至2018年间45个新兴经济体面临的各类资本流动的驱动因素,重点分析了资本流向亚洲地区的驱动因素与其他地区的共性和异质性。使用广义矩估计方法(GMM)对面板数据集的实证结果表明,对新兴经济体而言,制度质量和国内因素对吸引资本流入具有重要影响;对亚洲地区来说,人均收入增长和贸易开放是吸引资本流入的重要驱动因素,国内外利差水平和实际有效汇率变动对吸引组合投资和其他投资具有显著影响,VIX指数和影子利率对亚洲新兴经济体资本流动规模的影响也具有重要影响。这表明,在设计管理资本流入的政策框架时,全球经济金融合作和政策协调应被考虑在内。     

Capital Controls as Taxation Policy

This paper studies the public finance implications ofcontrols on international financial capital flows, proposinga model of controls as distortionary taxation. The model formalizesa capital controls rule that conforms real-world stylized factsand is sustainable in the long-run. Capital controls are shownto distort agents' optimal intratemporal portfolio decisionsand intertemporal consumption decisions, affecting the dynamicsof financial and real variables. We use the model to analyzethe feasible set of tax instruments—in terms of level andmix—available to the government and the complex relationshipsbetween expenditures and taxes mediated by the foreign sector.     

The optimal mix of taxes on money,consumption and income

We determine the optimal combination of taxes on money, consumption and income in transactions technology models where exogenous government expenditures must be financed with distortionary taxes. We show that the optimal policy does not tax money, regardless of whether the government can use as alternative fiscal instruments an income tax, a consumption tax, or the two taxes jointly. These results are at odds with recent literature. We argue that the reason for this divergence is an inappropriate specification of the transactions technology adopted in the literature.     

内资企业组织形式的纳税筹划

在现行税制下,内资企业由于组织形式的不同,会适用不同的所得税,即个人所得税或企业所得税。由于这两种所得在税率上和费用扣除方面存在差异,纳税人可以利用这些差异进行纳税筹划。     

Strategic Capital Taxation in Large Open Economies with Mobile Capital

The purpose of this paper is to provide a methodologyfor computing time-consistent, strategic capital taxes in a largeopen economy and to analyze the nature of these taxes. Our resultssuggest that even if a full set of nondistortionary taxes isunavailable and even if the government has redistributive goals,the country which imports capital should tax corporate capitaland the capital exporter should subsidize it. We perform comparativestatics experiments to show how strategically chosen taxes varywith the parameters of the model. JEL classifications: H21,E62     

The cost of capital and optimal financing policy in a dynamic setting

This paper revisits the Modigliani–Miller propositions on the optimal financing policy and cost of capital in a dynamic setting. In an environment without taxes and bankruptcy costs, the results are generally consistent with the Modigliani–Miller Propositions 1 and 2. However, the first proposition should be presented and interpreted more carefully, as given firm characteristics, there is only one optimal capital structure. Thus, a firm’s capital structure is relevant. A relaxation of assumptions about either taxes or bankruptcy costs leads to conclusions that are generally different from those in Modigliani and Miller (1958). The model predicts that leverage and sales-to-capital ratios decrease but firm size and capital stock increase with the subjective discount factor of the firm’s manager if there are taxes and bankruptcy costs. The empirical analysis supports these predictions.     

支持技术创新发展的政府主导型风险投资机制设计

从目前国际的发展形势来看,政府正在逐渐淡出或退出绝大多数风险投资机构的具体运作。但结合我国实际状况,政府有责任引导风险投资作为支持技术创新的重要融资手段。本文重点研究设计以"风险投资管理局"为核心的政府主导型风险投资机制,包括投资对象的综合评估与筛选、政府主导型风险投资融资方式、政府对投资公司的配套服务与扶持措施、政府对技术创新企业的承包采购政策及法律政策支持等。