Price Regulation in Secondary Insurance Markets

Secondary life insurance markets are growing rapidly. From nearly no transactions in 1980, a wide variety of similar products in this market has developed, including viatical settlements, accelerated death benefits, and life settlements and as the population ages, these markets will become increasingly popular. Eight state governments, in a bid to guarantee sellers a “fair” price, have passed regulations setting a price floor on secondary life insurance market transactions, and more are considering doing the same. Using data from a unique random sample of HIV+ patients, we estimate welfare losses from transactions prevented by binding price floors in the viatical settlements market (an important segment of the secondary life insurance market). We find that price floors bind on HIV patients with greater than 4 years of life expectancy. Furthermore, HIV patients from states with price floors are significantly less likely to viaticate than similarly healthy HIV patients from other states. If price floors were adopted nationwide, they would rule out transactions worth $119 million per year. We find that the magnitude of welfare loss from these blocked transactions would be highest for consumers who are relatively poor, have weak bequest motives, and have a high rate of time preference.     

Beta-2 microglobulin as a marker for HIV infection

Beta-2 microglobulin is a sensitive surrogate test for HIV infection for use in jurisdictions where HIV antibody tests are not allowed to be performed on life insurance applicants by law/regulation. The advantage of beta-2 microglobulin over T cell testing, which is a surrogate test also used by the life insurance industry for detecting HIV infection, is the stability of B 2M in serum over long periods of time.     

Reference mortality K2004 of personal life insurance policies in Finland

This article presents the reference mortality model K2004 approved by the Actuarial Society of Finland and the technique that was implemented in developing it. Initially, I will present the historical development of individual mortality rates in Finland. Then, the requirements posed for a modern mortality modelling will be presented. Reference mortality model K2004 is based on total population mortality rates, which were adjusted to correspond with that portion of the population that has a life insurance policy. First, the model presents a margin of the observed life insurance mortality rate in the total population with a Lee-Carter method together with a forecast, where the downward trend in mortality rates is expected to continue at the rate illustrated since the 1960s. Then, the mortality rate has been adjusted into life insurance mortality per age so that it corresponds to the differences observed between total population and the portion of population that has a life insurance during 1991–2001. Finally, a cohort and gender-specific functional margin will be presented to obtained data.     

Anorexia nervosa: a 63-year population-based survival study

As eating disorders attract increasing publicity, more affected individuals will seek medical attention. Many will have needs for life insurance. Due to selection bias, most of the literature on anorexia nervosa (AN) presents an unfavorable prognosis. Therefore, the impairment is considered an adverse life insurance risk. This review is from an unselected, community population. The demographics of the study population and its expected mortality are similar to a population purchasing life insurance products. Comparative experience over 63 years of follow-up reveals mortality ratios and excess death rates similar to those expected for the population. High-risk comorbid diagnoses of depression and alcoholism are discussed.     

Development in medical underwriting in Germany

Life insurance companies generate profits primarily with life insurance and disability protection. Individual risk assessment serves to avoid adverse selection. The assessment of medical risks is based generally on the classification requirements of the reinsurance companies. For this reason the reinsurers provide the primary insurance companies with classification manuals. The manuals from the reinsurers differ only slightly. By means of three examples (heart diseases, cancer and HIV) the development for the last 30 years of underwriting in medical risks is explained in this article.     

完善我国新型农村社会养老保险制度研究

新型农村社会养老保险制度的建设关系到农民目前和将来的生活安全和生活质量的提高。完善新型农村社会养老保险制度,会使我国人民的生活质量登上一个新的台阶,不仅对农村人口,而且与农村有千丝万缕联系的城镇人口,都将受到这一新型养老保险制度的恩惠。新农保制度的完善在当前扩内需、保增长,应对经济与金融危机的背景下具有特殊的意义。只有很好的社会保障或民生保障才能给全体国民带来普遍的安全感。     

Product innovation and population dynamics in the German insurance market

Empirical research in organizational ecology has mainly focused on analyzing founding and mortality rates using life history data of the organizations. We try to extend this approach in our study in a number of ways. In contrast to most empirical studies in organizational ecology, we chose a population of service organizations, in particular the German insurance companies, the development dynamics of which are rather obvious in the innovative activities of existing organizations than in founding activities. We further discuss the points of contact between the organizational ecology approach and the theory of industry life cycles and extend the analysis to the relationship between innovative activities and population dynamics. The study examines the effects of population density, former events, and organizational size and age structure in the population of property &; casualty insurance companies on the number of product innovations generated. We will further develop a concept for an insurance specific industry life cycle with a non-typical maturation and degeneration phase.     

Household Life Insurance Demand

Abstract

What types of households own life insurance? Who owns term life and who owns whole life insurance? These are questions of great interest to insurers that operate in a highly competitive market. To answer these questions, we jointly examine household demand of two types of insurance, term and whole life, using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, a probability sample of the U.S. population. We model both the frequency and the severity of demand for insurance, building on the work of Lin and Grace by using explanatory variables that they developed. For the frequency portion, the household decisions about whether to own term and whole life insurance are modeled simultaneously with a bivariate probit regression model. Given ownership of life insurance by a household, the amounts of insurance are analyzed using generalized linear models with a normal copula. The copula permits the bivariate modeling of insurance amounts for households who own both term and whole life insurance, about 20% of our sample. These models allow analysts to predict who owns life insurance and how much they own, an important input to the marketing process.

Moreover, our findings suggest that household demand for term and whole life insurance is jointly determined. After controlling for explanatory variables, there exists a negative relationship for a household’s decision to own both whole and term life insurance (the frequency part) and a positive relationship for the amount of insurance purchased (the severity part). This indicates that the greater the probability of holding one type, the smaller the probability of holding the other type of life insurance. However, higher demand for both types of insurance exists when a household decides to own both. This mixed effect extends prior work that established a negative relationship, suggesting that term life insurance and whole life insurance are substitutes for one another. In contrast, our findings reveal that the ownership decision involves substitution, but, for households owning both types of insurance, amounts are positively related. Therefore, term and whole life insurance are substitutes in the frequency yet complements in the severity.     

个税递延型养老保险的可行性研究——以北京市为例

随着我国人口老龄化步伐的加快,社会基本养老保险和企业年金已经不能充分满足全社会老年人的生活消费。本文以北京市为特例,通过对北京市的老龄化现状进行分析,说明个税递延型养老保险在北京市实施的必要性。再通过对市政府财力及北京市的独特优势进行分析,说明北京市具备实行个税递延型养老保险的条件,并对这类保险方案提出了制度构想。     

Update on HIV infection

In the third decade of the global epidemic, it is evident that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease is quite different from the disease first recognized among a small number of homosexual men in 1981. The spread of HIV has been particularly alarming in developing countries, especially sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, and it continues to threaten other populations in Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean. HIV therapeutic advances have resulted in a marked decrease in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence and death in the United States and Western Europe. With the introduction of "triple therapy," antiretroviral treatment has resulted in an extraordinary increase in the quality of life and life expectancy among HIV-infected persons. However, the rate of decline in AIDS incidence and deaths from the latter part of 1998 through 2000 has slowed for a number of reasons. Even with the stabilization of HIV in Western countries, it remains as important as ever to follow sound insurance principles to address HIV risk. The clinical success stories have yet to be translated into the insurance realm. A very strict analysis of the medical literature will be needed.     

Die Auswirkung von Globalisierung von Versicherungsmärkten aus medizinisch-demographischer Sicht

The opening of national life insurance markets is prevented by the fear, that the mortality experience might be too different to adopt one country’s principles to other markets. In this article the postwar German mortality is related to main cause of death groups, showing a simular development in relation to what was observed in the US and other countries. Comparing actual population life tables of Western European countries unvails that today’s differences in the death probabilities are only minor. From this point of view selling German life insurance contracts in neighborning countries like Austria or Switzerland would not create an unacceptable risk.     

Guaranteed renewable life insurance under demand uncertainty

Guaranteed renewability (GR) is a prominent feature in many health and life insurance markets. We develop a model that includes unpredictable (and unobservable) fluctuations in demand for life insurance as well as changes in risk type (observable) over individuals' lifetimes. The presence of demand type heterogeneity leads to the possibility that optimal GR contracts may have a renewal price that is either above or below the actuarially fair price of the lowest risk type in the population. Individuals whose type turns out to be high risk but low demand renew more of their GR insurance than is efficient due to the attractive renewal price. This results in imperfect insurance against reclassification risk. Although a first‐best efficient contract is not possible in the presence of demand type heterogeneity, the presence of GR contracts nonetheless improves welfare relative to an environment with only spot markets.     

Insurance and economic policy uncertainty

Just as the world has witnessed the increased importance of the insurance sector over the past few decades, it has also witnessed a sharp rise in risks and uncertainties. Surprisingly, studies analyzing the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the insurance sector are almost non-existent. Another major limitation of insurance literature is the choice of methodology. Most studies on the insurance sector do not take into consideration issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, and are therefore subject to errors. To address the identified gaps, this research investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on insurance premiums in a panel of 15 countries over the period 1998–2016 by employing heterogeneous panel estimation techniques with cross-sectional dependence. The Durbin-Hausman cointegration tests of Westerlund (2008) confirm that a long-run relationship exists between the variables. Findings from the error correction based panel estimations show that the insurance sector is not immune to the effects of economic policy uncertainty. Economic policy uncertainty raises insurance premiums both in the short and long run, although the long-run impact is greater than the short-run impact. In addition, economic policy uncertainty exerts a bigger influence on non-life insurance premium than on life insurance premium, indicating that the economic risks covered by non-life insurance are more sensitive to uncertainty than the mortality and longevity risks covered by life insurance. Our findings further show that national income, education, population, financial development and institutional quality all raise insurance premiums, while inflation lowers insurance premiums.     

经济周期视野下的中国寿险业发展态势探析

运用宏观经济学的研究方法,从经济周期视野对我国寿险业的发展态势进行了探讨。首先,对寿险业发展的宏观脉络进行了分析,认为寿险业的产品特征具有较强的亲周期性,通过HP滤波进行趋势周期分解后证实寿险业的周期性波动幅度比产险业显著。其次,对寿险业发展的当前态势进行了分析,维持了寿险业长期趋势向好的总体判断,但认为经济周期对寿险业的负面冲击效应较大,短期内寿险业难以恢复高增长态势。最后,对寿险业的发展提出了若干政策建议,认为准确定位、改善监管和优化环境是促进寿险业可持续发展的当务之急。     

人寿保险行业市场开放度效率研究

以东、中、西部各省(市)人寿保险公司设立、寿险保费收入和中外资寿险人员安排的劳动力投入等指标数据衡量人寿保险业的市场布局,结果显示:东、中、西部2002-2011年人寿保险公司一级(省级)分公司数量和分布密度逐年增加,各省寿险保费收入和中外资寿险人员劳动力投入的布局比重基本呈现逐年递增的趋势.运用DEA中投入导向CCR模型对我国人寿保险行业市场开放度效率进行分析,结果显示:中资寿险开放度效率相对较高,全国水平次之,外资寿险较低但呈现递增波动趋势.人寿保险业市场开放布局与开放度效率呈阶段式波动递增相关关系.     

Life insurance demand and borrowing constraints

The literature devoted limited attention to exploring the relationship between financial development and life insurance demand. Financial development supports life insurance supply by providing confidence in the financial system, more efficient payment systems, and higher availability of financial instruments. However, financial development reduces households' needs to save by relaxing borrowing constraints, indirectly affecting life insurance demand. We contribute by providing a demand‐driven explanation of the negative consequences of financial development on life insurance development. We find that more credit‐constrained countries have higher life insurance penetration on average. Indirectly, the role of borrowing constraints signifies the importance of life insurance policies as a financing tool in case of the realization of various background risks. This study integrates the knowledge from life insurance theory, life insurance lapse, policy loans demand, and saving under liquidity constraints literature and produces implications for researchers, policymakers, and life insurers.     

人寿保险行业市场结构及影响因素研究

准入退出壁垒、市场集中度、规模经济和范围经济以及产品差异化等是影响人寿保险业市场结构的主要因素。中国保险市场准入、退出的行政性政策壁垒较高,市场集中度较高,属于寡占 III 型市场结构;寿险业保费规模、保险密度、保险深度、保险资产总额占 GDP 的比重、保险资产总额占整个金融资产的比重较低;寿险产品同质化现象较严重。鉴此,应降低市场进入壁垒,建立市场退出机制,达到优化市场结构,提高资源配置效率目的。     

Versicherung von Risiken HIV-infizierter Menschen und Gleichbehandlungsrecht

The article deals with the impact of the German Equal Treatment Law on the insurance of risks related to a HIV positive person. The infection has to be qualified as a disability but differentiations in insurance contracts are usually justifiable. In addition normally there is no unlawful treatment with regard to sexual identity. Even so the insurer has several options to avoid any conflict with HIV positive persons.     

Genetik und Versicherung aus ökonomischer Sicht

For some years direct gene tests have been available for many diseases and nearly every week new gene mutations are found and linked with diseases. By improving the diagnostic possibilities consequences for certain insurance branches will arise. Health and life insurance in particular will perhaps face radical chances, especially concerning the acceptance of contracts. If there is a contract between a policy holder and an insurance company, it is more important whether the cost-effectiveness of genetic screening is given. Exemplary this is calculated for a population-based screening for hemochromatosis. Furthermore it is relevant, whether the population will use available gene tests. The results of a pilot study will be presented. They show that there is a market for such products and that consequences for insurance companies are likely.     

A Bayesian non-parametric model for small population mortality

This paper proposes a Bayesian non-parametric mortality model for a small population, when a benchmark mortality table is also available and serves as part of the prior information. In particular, we extend the Poisson-gamma model of Hardy and Panjer to incorporate correlated and age-specific mortality coefficients. These coefficients, which measure the difference in mortality levels between the small and the benchmark population, follow an age-indexed autoregressive gamma process, and can be stochastically extrapolated to ages where the small population has no historical exposure. Our model substantially improves the computation efficiency of existing two-population Bayesian mortality models by allowing for closed form posterior mean and variance of the future number of deaths, and an efficient sampling algorithm for the entire posterior distribution. We illustrate the proposed model with a life insurance portfolio from a French insurance company.