Is the willingness to take risks contagious? A comparison of immigrants and native-born in the United States

A number of studies have shown that immigrants are more willing to take risks than native-born populations. In this paper, we measure if the willingness to take risks is contagious and if this effect is different for immigrants and native-born individuals in the United States. We suggest that the willingness to take risks may be contagious, like emotions and generosity, i.e. an individual may be more willing to take risks if others make risky decisions. We measure if contagion has a stronger effect on willingness to take risks among immigrants than native populations using a variety of vignettes, specifically in the domains of career, financial investment, and health. Respondents were randomly assigned either to a control or experimental condition. In the experimental condition, we attempted to induce risk-taking by suggesting that other individuals made risky decisions in the lottery-choice tasks (a ‘risk shift condition’). Contrary to expectations, the risk shift condition had a positive effect on willingness to take risks among native-born, while a negative effect or no effect was found among immigrants (conservative shift). Native-born found the situations more beneficial in the risk shift condition than in the control condition, while immigrants found them less beneficial in the risk shift condition. The conservative shift was found among immigrants, as well as males and self-employed. Risk shift condition reduced the sense of power among power-motivated individuals (males and immigrants), which produced a less optimistic evaluation of risky situations. While taking into consideration that others make risky decisions, immigrants and males perceived situations as less beneficial for them. The results of the experiment have some implications for our understanding of the link between a sense of power and the willingness to take risks.     

PROFILING: A STRATEGY FOR SUCCESSFUL VOLUNTEER RECRUITMENT IN CREDIT UNIONS

Credit unions are non‐profit financial organisations that provide financial services to their members. They are located in 97 countries across the world. All credit unions are governed by a volunteer board and many are reliant on volunteers for all their labour requirements. However, recruiting volunteers is a problem. The literature on recruitment issues in volunteering in general, suggests that the not‐for‐profit sector looks to the private sector for guidance on recruitment policies and approaches. One such approach which is considered in this paper is ‘market segmentation’ wherein the potential volunteer body is profiled to determine if an individual is likely to volunteer and if they are, to identify the type of role they are most likely to be attracted to. Prior literature on volunteering in non‐profit organisations suggests that certain types of individual (dominant individuals) are more likely to volunteer. This paper investigates whether this dominant status profile is evident amongst volunteers in credit unions in Northern Ireland (NI). The study finds that people with dominant characteristics are more likely to be attracted to volunteering to the board of directors and individuals who have less dominant traits overall should be offered more social/participative type roles. This information can be used by credit union governing boards for volunteer recruitment, retention and management purposes.     

Do negative interest rates affect bank risk-taking?

We offer early evidence on the impact of negative interest rate policy (NIRP) on banks’ risk-taking. Our primary result shows banks in NIRP-adopter countries reduce holdings of risky assets by around 10 percentage points following implementation of NIRP in comparison to banks in non-adopter countries. We augment this result by identifying NIRP’s impact on other aspects of banks’ risk-taking behaviour; NIRP is associated with reductions in banks’ loan growth and average loan price (by 3.7 percentage points and 59 basis points) and a rebalancing of asset portfolios towards safer assets. Secondly, we find the NIRP-effect is heterogeneous; post-NIRP risk-taking increases at strongly capitalised banks and at banks operating in less competitive markets that exploit market power to insulate net interest margins and profitability. Our robust empirical evidence supports the “de-leverage” hypothesis which suggests that banks acquire safer, liquid assets to bolster their capital positions rather than searching for value by acquiring riskier assets. We base our evidence on a sample of 2,584 banks from 33 OECD countries across 2012 to 2016, and from models that employ a difference-in-differences framework.     

Modeling the relationships among emotional intelligence,sensation-seeking and risk-taking attitudes of university students in Hong Kong

This study investigated the risk-taking attitudes of 305 Chinese university students in Hong Kong by the prediction of sensation-seeking. To further understand the prediction of sensation-seeking, emotional intelligence (EI) was applied. First, the 30-item DOPSERT scale was used to examine the risk-taking attitude of students in different domains (ethical, financial, health/safety, social, and recreational). Then, a 12-item sensation-seeking subscale taken from the UPPS Impulsive Behavior Scale was applied to examine the participants’ levels of sensation-seeking. In this study, sensation-seeking was divided into the categories of exciting activities seeking and novel activities seeking (NAS). Finally, the 16-item Wong and Law’s Emotional Intelligence Scale was applied to examine participants’ use of self-emotion appraisal, others’ emotion appraisal, use of emotion, and regulation of emotion. The results of this study showed that for this group of Chinese university students, the use of emotion and regulation of emotion could significantly predict exciting activities seeking. NAS, however, could predict recreational risk-taking attitude and health and safety risk-taking attitude. Bronfenbrenner’s ecological model was applied to understand the relationships among EI, sensation-seeking and risk-taking attitudes. The variables of EI and sensation-seeking were considered as factors within an ontogenic system of the ecological model. Few studies to date have focused on the relationship between EI and risk-taking. The results of this study provided support for a clear relation between EI and risk-taking. To be more specific, the use of emotion and the regulation of emotion had an effect on exciting activities seeking. This study also indicated how educators and counselors can make use of the findings to better control the risk-taking attitudes of young people, so they will be less likely to engage in risky behaviors.     

Misclassifications in financial risk tolerance

This paper analyses the empirical risk tolerance of individuals and the role of physiological measures of risk perception. By using a test that mimics the financial decision process in a laboratory setting (N?=?445), we obtained an ex-post empirical measure of individual risk tolerance. Predictive classification models allow us to evaluate the accuracy of two alternative risk-tolerance forecasting methods: a self-report questionnaire and a psycho-physiological experiment. We find that accuracy of self-assessments is low and that misclassifications resulting from questionnaires vary from 36 to 65%: individuals asked to self-evaluate their risk tolerance reveal a high probability of failing their judgement, i.e. they behave as risk takers, even if, before the task, they define themselves as risk averse (and vice versa). Conversely, when the risk-tolerance forecast is obtained from individuals’ physiological arousal, observed via their somatic activation before risky choices, the rate of misclassification is considerably lower (~17%). Emotions are confirmed to influence the financial risk-taking process, enhancing the accuracy of the individual risk-tolerance forecasting activity. Self-report questionnaires, conversely, could lead to inadequate risk-tolerance assessments, with consequent unsuitable investment decisions. Bridging these results from the individual to the institutional level, our findings should enhance cautiousness, among regulators and financial institutions, on the (ab)use of risk tolerance questionnaires as tools for classifying individuals’ behaviour under risk.     

Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy

This paper analyzes a general equilibrium model of a competitive security market in which traders possess independent pieces of information about the return of a risky asset. Each trader conditions his estimate of the return both on his own private source of information and price, which in equilibrium serves as a ‘noisy’ aggregator of the total information observed by all traders. A closed-form characterization of the rational expectations equilibrium is presented. A counter-example to the existence of ‘fully revealing’ equilibrium is developed.     

Taking notice of risk culture – the regulator’s approach

Following the financial crisis and a series of mis-selling and ‘rigging’ scandals in the financial services, organisational culture, and particularly the risk culture of organisations, has come to be regarded as a key issue for both financial firms and their regulators This paper considers the extent to which regulatory published notices, ‘Final Notices’ (FNs), relating to breaches of the regulatory Handbook, are able to provide lessons, or pointers, in the development of ‘appropriate’ cultures. By undertaking a qualitative content analysis of all the FNs in 2012, we examine the extent to which FNs draw attention to issues of culture, and to the regulator’s analysis of the drivers of culture published as part of its treating customers fairly (TCF) initiative. The analysis finds that, although not easy to extract, there are important learning points in FNs relating to organisational culture, and in particular to the factors driving behaviours and outcomes that are signs of poor culture. This paper suggests that, whilst it may not be for a regulator to dictate firms’ culture, it could do much more to make use of the content of FNs as a learning tool for firms; particularly in the context of its cultural framework for TCF. This would support the ‘outcomes-based’ approach being espoused by the UK’s regulators.     

Managerial foreign experience and corporate risk-taking: Evidence from China

This study investigates the relationship between managerial foreign experience and corporate risk-taking. We find that foreign experienced managers in Chinese firms are positively associated with corporate risk-taking and that this mainly exists in private firms rather than in state owned enterprises (SOEs). In privately owned firms, the degree of corporate internationalization and operating leverage are potential channels through which foreign experienced managers affect corporate risk-taking. Moreover, the positive association is more pronounced for managers' practical, rather than educational foreign experience and for managers who gain their foreign experience from countries or regions with advanced management practices and better corporate governance. Short-term visits overseas has no impact on corporate risk-taking. Additionally, the relationship is more persistent among private firms with better corporate governance and those operating in weak local economy. Finally, we find evidence that the risk-taking behaviour from foreign experienced managers is an important mechanism for companies to enhance their value.     

The effect of prior outcomes on gender risk-taking differences

This study proposed that men are more likely to take greater risk after a win (‘house money’ effect), while women are more likely to take greater risk after a loss (‘escalation of commitment’ effect). These effects are, however, moderated by prior experiences in risk-taking and role characteristics. Three distinct groups of 30 subjects (total?=?90) each were solicited to play an experimental betting game. The subjects were categorized into risk providers (RP), risk customers (RC), and non-risk customers (NRC). RP are represented by casino executives, RC by leisure life-time casino gamblers, and NRC by non-casino gamblers. On average, RC group was found to take most betting risk. Male RCs were more likely to bet more after a win, while female RCs were more likely to bet more after a loss. NRCs, irrespective of gender, were more likely to bet more after a loss. There were no gender risk-taking differences in prior outcomes in the RP group.     

Ownership structure and risk-taking: Comparative evidence from private and state-controlled banks in China

This study examines the impact of ownership structure on Chinese banks' risk-taking behaviours. We classify the Chinese commercial banks into three categories based on the types of controlling shareholder, and find that banks controlled by the government (GCBs) tend to take more risks than those controlled by state-owned enterprises (SOECBs) or private investors (PCBs). This is attributed to the severe political intervention and weak incentives to follow prudent bank management practices for GCBs. We also find that the results are more pronounced among banks with concentrated ownership presumably because the large controlling power helps to enhance the monitoring of the management and promotes prudent operating procedures. Our findings have important implications for the ongoing reform in the Chinese banking sector.     

Fund ownership,wealth, and risk-taking: Evidence on private equity managers

Private equity (PE) managers are required to invest their own money in the funds they manage. We examine the incentive effects of this ownership on the delegated acquisition decision. A simple model shows that PE managers select less risky firms and use more debt, the higher their ownership. We test these predictions for a sample of Norwegian PE funds, using managers’ wealth to capture their relative risk aversion. As predicted, the target company’s cash-flow risk decreases and leverage increases with the manager’s ownership scaled by wealth. Moreover, the overall portfolio risk decreases with ownership, mitigating widespread concerns about excessive risk-taking.     

How fast to run in the Red Queen race?

This paper creates a market ecosystem, via an agent‐based model, that combines the dynamic features of the Red Queen effect with well‐accepted business world performance indicators. Essentially, firms are tasked with remaining ‘alive’ by adapting to their environment through implementing a competitive response of innovating or imitating. An analysis of the firms’ behaviours delivers a deep understanding of the drivers of innovative behaviour within the economy. The key findings of the paper are (1) that concentrated markets are not entirely detrimental to innovative behaviour, with the blend of firm type being a more important consideration, and (2) that the rate at which an innovation impairs existing markets affects the activity levels of the firms within the population. The model's results are validated against a matching study based on real‐world data.     

Annuity Markets and Retirement Security

The growing importance of defined contribution pension arrangements has drawn increased attention to the means by which retired people draw down their assets. Current UK law requires annuitisation of at least a fraction of defined contribution plan accumulations. Annuity markets have recently attracted some criticism with respect to pricing and the available range of product options. This paper describes a key feature of voluntary annuity markets: the presence of ‘adverse selection’. This is the tendency of annuitants to live longer than non‐annuitants, since individuals who know that they are likely to die soon do not purchase annuities. The paper presents information that quantifies the importance of adverse selection in the setting of private annuity prices and discusses the role of compulsory annuitisation requirements in reducing it. Requiring individuals to participate in the annuity market can reduce selection effects, at the cost of reducing individuals' range of retirement income options.     

Winning the worksite customer

As the UK financial services industry advances channel strategies in response to developments in regulation, technology and government policy, a number of systems are evolving. One such system is worksite distribution. The environment is set to facilitate the development of this channel and a good deal of activity is under way. Key environmental drivers include the legal obligation on UK employers regarding stakeholder pensions provision; the continuing erosion in state benefits and the recognition that individuals will almost certainly have to provide for themselves in retirement; and the culmination of IT infrastructure development. Along with a tight labour market and reduced access to financial advice for the ‘mass market’ as advisers turn their focus to high-net-worth individuals, the role of the employer and the workplace as a source of information and purchase power begins to make sense — in essence, the role of a ‘portal’. This paper takes a close look at the customer potential of worksite marketing — both employers and employees — and the technology challenge faced by providers in winning their business.Worksite distribution (also known as worksite marketing) is the latest distribution channel emerging in UK financial services. There has been much discussion over the last two years on the viability of this channel in the UK. These discussions initially focused on comparing the drivers in the UK to the different drivers behind the development of the channel in the USA. More recently, discussions have focused on UK activity and the scramble to secure (pre-register) stakeholder pension (SHP) clients. This flourish of provider activity may well account for the channel becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, with many employers already being presented with a SHP or worksite proposition. ‘Best practice’ in this channel will be dependent on providing the best process for target customers — some lessons are learned from experience in other established markets and, importantly, from realising the inherent differences between the UK and these markets. This paper takes a deeper look at the subject and explores the worksite customer — who they are, how to win their business, and the enabling technology that will determine the outcome for financial service providers embarking on this channel.     

Information Aggregation via Contracting

When a group of investors with dispersed private information jointly invest in a risky project, how should they divide the project's profit? We show that a simple contract dividing profits in proportion to investors' risk tolerances may facilitate information aggregation by altering investors' risk-taking incentives when they decide on how investment strategies respond to private information. Our results provide a contracting-based approach for information aggregation, which is an alternative to learning from endogenous market variables (e.g., prices) via contingent schedules as seen in well-known rational expectations equilibrium models.     

Good cop,bad cop: Complementarities between debt and equity in disciplining management

We demonstrate an inherent conflict between ex ante efficient monitoring and liquidation decisions by outside claimholders. We show it can be useful to commit to inefficient liquidation when monitors fail to produce information: this provides stronger incentives to monitor. The implication for firm capital structure is that more information is generated about firm prospects – and hence firm value increases – when a firm’s cash flow is split into a ‘safe’ claim (debt) and a ‘risky’ claim (equity) compared to when a single claim is sold. We also derive the optimal allocation of control rights between safe and risky claims. This partially resolves the Tirole (2001) puzzle as to why firms issue multiple securities that generate ex post conflicts of interest.     

我国货币政策风险承担渠道存在吗？--基于GMM方法的实证研究

本文收集了2004—2013年我国45家商业银行的微观数据和相关宏观数据,并运用差分GMM回归方法对我国货币政策风险承担渠道的存在性做了实证检验。研究结果表明：我国的货币政策风险承担渠道确实存在,且宽松的货币政策会刺激银行承担更多的风险;价格型货币政策工具对银行风险承担的影响大于数量型货币政策工具;银行的规模大小、盈利水平和资本充足性与银行风险承担呈反比;人均GDP增长率、银行业竞争性与银行风险承担呈正比。     

Reporting accountant appointments and accounting restatements: Evidence from UK private companies

In recent years, regulators have exempted an increasing number of companies from the requirement to appoint auditors, yet little is known about the role of the accounting profession in preparing and validating the financial statements of unaudited companies. In this paper, we examine empirically the factors associated with the appointment of reporting accountants. We then provide novel evidence on whether unaudited UK small private companies are less likely to restate their annual accounts when they have been prepared by an external accountancy firm (i.e., a reporting accountant). Based on a cross sectional analysis of a large sample of small private unaudited UK companies, we find that, in accordance with the ‘confirmation hypothesis’, larger companies that voluntarily disclose more financial information are more likely to appoint a reporting accountant. We also find that the accounts of companies with a reporting accountant are significantly less likely to be restated than those without. This result is more pronounced for companies disclosing more financial information and for those employing a larger accounting firm. Given the dwindling number of private companies opting for audits, our findings contribute to debates on the role of the accounting profession in enhancing private company financial reporting quality.     

New development: Administrative accountability and early responses during public health crises—lessons from Covid-19 in China

ABSTRACT

The administrative accountability system in China has evolved during public health crises. By holding public officials accountable, the system hopes to improve their performance during emergencies. However, Covid-19 exposed an unexpected effect of the system. Instead of incentivizing public officials to take responsibility, it may have discouraged them from making timely, but potentially risky, decisions. Based on a holistic case analysis of the early response in Wuhan city, the authors demonstrate the lessons learnt and a way to improve the system. The case adds to an increasing academic literature on responsible risk-taking behaviours and decisions under uncertainties, extending the academic discussion by providing the critical contextual information for such behaviours and decisions in China.     

A critique of the influence of globalization and convergence of accounting standards in Fiji

The globalization of the world's economies has inevitably brought with it moves to establish a single set of financial reporting standards. Prima facie, the formulation and promulgation of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs) is concealed behind reified icons of ‘relevance’. This paper adds a new dimension to the international accounting debate by discussing themes of regulation, public and private interests, from a critical perspective. Specifically, this paper examines the reasons for the willingness to accept IFRSs in Fiji. A critical conception of ‘relevance’ and ‘accountability’ is developed to demonstrate how the needs of private interests’ are met in adopting the IFRSs. This paper demonstrates that in this process of convergence, the influence of these private interests – multinational enterprises and large international accounting firms – can lead to a transfer of economic resources in their favour, wherein the public interests are usually ignored. The paper offers suggestions on how public interest might be best served within the current financial reporting system and how, in principle, the needs to report both globally and locally can be reconciled.