中资银行海外并购的市场价值分析

本文选取2007~2011年期间中资银行的四起海外并购案例,运用事件研究法对中资银行开展海外并购的市场价值进行分析。在事件窗口为[-20,20]、估计窗口为[-210,-21]的区间下,发现在并购公告发布的前后41天内并购方的累计超额收益率仅有4天为负值,并且呈明显的上涨趋势,这说明并购公告后,并购方的股价呈显著上涨态势,由此,可以得出并购对市场价值有显著的正面影响的结论,这与中资银行积极开展海外并购的行为相符。这说明,中国证券市场的投资者对中资银行的跨国并购行为及中资银行的发展前景持乐观态度,中资银行应积极开展海外并购。     

基于期权博弈的投资时机选择

在不确定性和竞争性的策略互动环境中,根据投资时机相对性和绝对性的不同要求可以将期权博弈模型划分为绝对时机选择和相对时机选择两个类型。我们首先综述投资时机选择的期权博弈理论文献;然后以"随机最优停止问题"为研究基点,分别探讨投资时机选择的完全信息与不完全信息期权博弈模型;最后论述基于"追随-抢先模型"的投资时机选择期权博弈评价。     

企业并购决策信号传递博弈分析——有效并购博弈均衡的实现

并购作为企业之间的一种产权交易行为,实质上是企业并购双方在不完全信息情况下追求各自利益最大化的信号传递博弈过程。信号传递博弈是研究逆向选择的一个重要模型,在不完全信息条件下的非合作博弈中,它是一种具有广泛现实与应     

中资商业银行跨国并购现状、动因与效率影响——基于DEA测算及TOBIT模型的实证研究

本文在分析了中资银行跨国并购现状、动因之后,选择2007-2010年间发生跨国并购的5家中资商业银行作为研究对象,同时选择6家未发生跨国并购的中资商业银行作对比;利用投入导向型DEA模型分别测算出11家样本银行的综合技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率;分别从横向和纵向对比银行的DEA效率值,观察跨国并购同效率的关系;建立中资银行效率影响因素模型,给出跨国并购对中资银行效率影响的实证结果。结果认为,中资银行跨国并购效率不仅没有得到改善,反而出现恶化。本文最后尝试从并购行为上解释结果,认为中资银行正处于并购后资源整合阶段,较高的整合成本以及并购特点带来的一些不利条件形成了对银行效率的负面影响因素。     

全流通对上市公司并购行为的影响分析——一个基于博弈论的分析框架

通过一个阶段完全信息动态博弈模型,证明了上市公司并购中普遍存在的逆向选择问题;通过比较静态分析,讨论了并购方实施价值支持策略的成本,市场经营的风险以及收购方对于短期利益的重视程度等因素对收购方在兼并后策略选择的影响;通过对比股权分置状态和全流通条件下收购方后期的股权转让价格以及股权流通的比例,分析了全流通对我国上市公司并购行为的影响。     

我国银行业并购:绩效与趋势

近十年来,中国银行业并购浪潮日趋显现。从绩效看,中小股份制银行和城商行并购推动银行业从寡头垄断向垄断竞争型市场结构转变;外资银行并购对促进中资银行公司治理和竞争的改善产生积极作用;海外并购在经营业绩层面看尚未取得显著成果,但一些大型银行的战略并购对我国银行多元化和国际化发展具有较高战略价值。从趋势看,在短期与中期,国内市场化并购动力不足是一个突出问题,但中小商业银行业并购、混业并购和产业资本投资银行业是不可逆转的潮流;中资银行海外扩张趋于谨慎并更加注重战略价值。在规制方面,我国银行境内外并购的法律和监管制度面临相互协调与完善。     

实验经济学的新视野:行为博弈论述评

标准博弈论的形成是一个不断发展的过程,从静态博弈到动态博弈,从完全信息博弈到不完全信息博弈,从单次博弈到重复博弈,目前已经形成一套相当完备的体系:完全信息静态博弈、完全信息动态博弈、不完全信息静态博弈和不完全信息动态博弈.尽管标准博弈论的发展就是不断放松一系列严格假定的过程,但它仍然存在一个重大的缺陷--严格的理性人假定.随着行为经济学日益发展,实验经济学也日渐成熟,因此,过分强调经济理性和推崇严密数理推导的标准博弈论不可避免地受到挑战.     

农村信用体系建设对农户融资行为影响的博弈分析

农村信用体系建设的理论基础在于减少信息不对称和降低交易成本.通过建立不完全信息动态博弈模型和完全信息动态博弈模型,分别对尚未建立农村信用体系和已经建立农村信用体系两种情况下农村金融机构和农户的借款行为进行分析.不完全信息动态博弈分析表明,农村金融机构与农户双方的借贷行为无法实现最有效率的博弈均衡；而完全信息动态博弈分析...     

浅谈跨国并购与中资银行的海外扩张战略

国际银行业的发展经验表明,跨国并购是拓展海外业务的重要途径。近年来,以往更多采用海外新建形式从事跨国经营的中资银行,开始开展并购业务,以拓展国际市场、延伸发展空间。但是,中资银行的并购实践并不都是成功的案例,仅仅基于银行拥有过剩的资金或西方银行的汇率贬值而进行的并购,无疑具有太多的投机成分。     

企业并购交易定价博弈分析

在资本市场发展过程中,必然客观产生企业之间并购事件。反过来企业之间并购事件又在客观上给资本市场健康发展带来活力。企业之间并购价格的确定和实施又是决定企业并购成功的关键。在企业并购价格确定过程中,实际上存在三个方面的内容:一是目标企业自身的价值评估;二是并购企业对目标企业的价值评估;三是双方的博弈过程。这里单方面价值评估是私有信息,并购价格的最终确定是在双方信息不完全条件下讨价还价博弈的结果。基于此,本文以契约论分析并购价格的实质,以谈判理论分析并购价格的形成,并分析了并购的静态博弈模型、动态博弈模型、重要信号以及讨价还价策略等问题。     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

Cost accounting standard and cost accounting systems in Japan. Lessons from the past - recovering lost traditions

This paper aims to show two things. The first is how Japanese culture has contributed to the development of Japanese cost accounting history. The second is to reveal the research possibilities of cost accounting history. This paper also reviews the salient features of several important examples of these aspects of cost accounting practice in Japan. It therefore explores, through some practical illustrations, how and why Japanese cost accounting differs from that found in the West.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

【正】The China Journal of Accounting Research‘‘CJAR’’(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditin...     

Shared Standard Setting in the Public Interest:A Strong Model

正The last two decades have been a definitive era in the evolution of the accountancy profession.In the wake of major corporate scandals at the turn of the century,an international public debate arose on the need for more effective and well-considered regulation;this debate then reignited during the global financial and sovereign debt crises.     

HOW TO PUT TOGETHER A COMPLETE PACKAGE

正Many Institute members know they cannot rely purely on technical knowledge and business acumen to remain competitive.As soft skills are increasingly important,Jemelyn Yadao finds out how CPAs can maintain     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:     

The China puzzle: Opportunities for accounting research

How can China achieve phenomenal economic growth despite what is considered as 'weak' institutions in market-based economies? Xu(2011) provides a framework to u...     

Aims and Scope

<正>The focus of the China Journal of Accounting Research is to publish theoretical and empirical research papers that use contemporary research methodologies to...     

Income smoothing and the cost of debt

The literature on income smoothing focuses on the effect of earnings smoothing on the equity market.This paper investigates the effect of income smoothing on th...     

The case for management history

This article defines the case for treating management history as a discrete subject area, although one closely related to business, accounting, labour, and industrial history. It seeks to concentrate on the nature, process, and practice of management as an activity within the organization, and to argue that it is important that modern British managers understand the intellectual and cultural roots of their profession, since without these they will tend to be swayed by short-term management 'fads'. Within the broad topic there are several identifiable sub-areas for potential exploration, including the comparative historical development of management between different countries, management institutions, managerial careers and labour markets, management structures, management skills, and management thought and theory.