金融素养、家庭财富与家庭创业决策

本文利用2015年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,分析了金融素养、家庭财富与家庭创业决策三者之间的关系。整体上,金融素养的提高显著增加了家庭参与创业的可能性,但家庭参与创业面临着"财富约束效应";而金融素养对家庭财富具有替代作用,提高金融素养有效缓解了家庭的"财富约束效应",促进家庭参与创业。同时,研究发现家庭财富对家庭创业决策的影响并不存在明显的城乡差异,但金融素养更能缓解农村家庭创业所面临的"财富约束效应"。另外,提高金融素养能有效缓解家庭的信贷约束,增加其风险偏好,间接地促进创业。     

购房借贷约束与缴存家庭消费——基于公积金运营流动性视角的分析

研究制约住房公积金制度效率的因素及作用机制,对保障国民安居、推动经济高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。鉴于此,本文首先通过构建理论模型,阐述了流动性压力下,公积金对缴存家庭贷款决策与消费的影响及作用机制,并使用中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)对理论假说进行实证检验。研究结果表明:借贷约束会显著降低缴存家庭使用公积金贷款的概率;流动性压力是公积金管理机构提高贷款门槛,从而降低借贷受约束家庭使用公积金贷款概率的重要原因;未获得公积金贷款支持的缴存家庭因购房成本的增加,家庭的非耐用品消费受到显著抑制。本文进一步通过倾向得分匹配方法和两阶段最小二乘法处理内生性问题,识别结果显示上述结论稳健可靠。本文研究表明:改善运营资金流动性不仅有助于提高公积金制度的运行效率,完善我国的住房保障体系,还有助于促进居民消费,提振内需,并为企业减费降负提供有效支持。     

信贷约束与农村家庭创业绩效:影响效应及损失估算

基于中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS),从创业行业异质性角度,分别构建农业创业绩效与非农创业绩效的客观衡量指标,理论分析信贷约束对农村家庭创业绩效的影响,采用内生转换回归模型进行实证检验,并进一步使用处理效应模型估算信贷约束所导致的创业绩效损失。研究发现,信贷约束会显著制约农村家庭创业绩效。对农业创业家庭而言,受信贷约束的制约,从事农地规模化经营对其亩均农产品产量和单位农产品生产成本均未起到显著的改善作用。相比不受信贷约束家庭,受信贷约束家庭的亩均农产品产量减少119.4242千克,单位农产品生产成本提高0.2097元。对非农创业家庭而言,相较于不受信贷约束家庭,增加受信贷约束家庭的借贷金额可以显著提高其生产经营净利润,若受信贷约束家庭的信贷需求得到完全满足,其净利润将提高1.9533万元。此外,受需求型信贷约束家庭的信贷需求得到完全满足时,其创业绩效的改善效用优于受供给型信贷约束家庭。研究结论证实了信贷约束对农村家庭创业绩效产生的负向影响及其损失。基于此,在优化农民创业支持政策体系、实现乡村振兴过程中应进一步深化农村金融市场改革,切实解决农民创业融资约束问题,提升农民创业绩效、改善农民创业质量。     

财富分层、社会资本与农户民间借贷的可得性北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文使用"中国家庭金融调查"2011和2013年两轮的微观数据,首次实证检验了财富分层对农户进入民间借贷市场的影响及其机制。研究发现,与穷人相比,相对比较富有的家庭更容易获得民间借款。产生该现象的原因在于穷人没有额外的资本用以扩展社会网络,进而降低了进入民间借贷市场的可能。由此推论,非正规信贷市场亦存在信贷约束问题,民间融资并不能缓解贫困农户融资难的困境。该结论在使用工具变量解决了内生性问题、采用多层阀值标准定义贫富后仍然稳健。     

基于VECM模型的信贷约束、家庭债务与中国宏观经济波动分析

采用1997~2013年家庭债务、贷款价值比与 GDP 增长率等变量数据,在借鉴 Kim 的模型基础上,构建 VECM 模型,检验了信贷约束、家庭债务与中国宏观经济波动之间的关系。结果表明：短期内宽松的借贷约束促进了家庭债务的增加,从而推动经济增长,但从长期来看,宽松的借贷约束会导致家庭债务过高,阻碍长期经济增长;与居民消费率、家庭债务等变量相比,贷款价值比、利率对宏观经济波动的影响较大。因此,政府决策部门应制定合理的消费金融政策,居民应通过优化家庭资产组合,以实现家庭债务的可持续性增长,从而促进经济增长。     

城镇居民家庭对房价随能力的初步测算

城镇居民家庭购房抵押贷款制度是当前我国住房金融发展的核心内容。建立符合我国城镇居民家庭实际情况的抵押贷款制度，是引导城镇居民家庭住房消费、实现住房信贷由开发性贷款向消费性贷款转移、促进房地产业健康发展、推进住房制度改革的中心环节。当前我国城镇居民购房抵押贷款业务发展缓慢、既有金融机构本身的原因，也有居民家庭消费贷款意识的原因，但抵押贷款政策设计的影响更为重要。对不同贷款条件下居民家庭承受能力的测算是抵押贷款政策制订的一项基础工作。     

家庭农场信贷需求及信贷约束影响因素的实证分析——基于宿迁市宿城区306家家庭农场的调查

论文实地调查了宿迁市宿城区家庭农场,采用Probit模型对306家家庭农场的信贷需求及信贷约束的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明:家庭农场主的年龄及受教育程度、有农机补贴、参加农业保险对家庭农场的信贷需求有正影响,专门从事农业的劳动力人数对家庭农场的信贷需求有负影响;家庭农场主的年龄对家庭农场获得传统正规金融机构贷款有负影响,家庭农场主的受教育程度、有农机补贴、参加农业保险对家庭农场获得传统正规金融机构贷款有正影响。家庭农场在其发展过程中存在着一定的正规信贷约束。最后提出适当增加农机补贴、加大农业保险支持力度、优化正规金融机构金融服务、引导规范民间借贷发展等对策建议,以便更好地促进家庭农场的发展。     

知识能力与资产实力:农户信贷难题再检验

农户贷款难问题制约"三农"发展,化解农户贷款难问题是推动乡村振兴战略顺利实施的关键.通过分析金融知识能力和家庭资产规模影响农户信贷可得性的内在机理,构建"金融知识能力—家庭资产—农户信贷可得性"的研究路径.基于河南邓州、陕西杨凌、宁夏同心三地农户调查数据,采用Probit回归和中介效应模型,检验知识能力、资产实力对农户信贷可得性的影响.结果显示,金融知识能力有助于缓解农户需求型信贷约束,家庭资产有利于改善供给型信贷约束,且金融知识能力可以通过增加家庭资产来提高农户信贷可得性.据此,从开展农户金融知识教育、促进农户家庭财富增加等角度提出改善农民融资困境的对策建议.     

民间借贷规范发展的路径选择分析

民间借贷属于一种融资手段,具有资金丰富,操作便捷的特点,能够缓解银行紧张的信贷资源和信贷供求矛盾。在促进我国社会经济发展方面有着重要作用。但是由于民间信贷的随意性和风险性,给社会也造成了诸多负面影响,对民间借贷规范发展的路径选择尤为重要。     

软信息、金融借贷与农户创业北大核心

提高农户个体的主观能动性对破解农户融资困境以及助推农户创业具有重要的现实意义。本文利用中国家庭追踪调查数据,通过构建“软信息-金融借贷-农户创业”的理论框架,结合Logistic模型和逐步回归法等,从金融借贷的中介视角实证检验了软信息对农户创业的影响。实证结果表明:社会网络、人格特征和风险态度均显著正向影响农户创业,正规借贷显著促进农户创业,而民间借贷对农户创业无显著影响;社会网络、人格特征和风险态度通过影响农户正规借贷进而促进农户创业,正规借贷起到部分中介效应,而民间借贷在该路径中不存在中介效应。鉴于此,本文认为要从源头上推动农户经济发展理念更新;优化农户创业的外部金融环境;金融机构要依托金融科技将农户软信息“硬化”,完善农户信用评级,甄选潜在创业者。     

Characteristics of Mortgage Terminations: an Analysis of a Loan-Level Dataset

Understanding mortgage termination behavior is crucial for valuating mortgage-backed securities. Analyzing a unique loan-level dataset, this study examines the characteristics of mortgage prepayment and default behaviors in the Korean housing and housing finance markets. We also analyze mortgage termination behaviors across regions, loan purposes, and periods. The results suggest that the prepayment rate of fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) and the ratio of adjustable-rate mortgages to FRMs can provide meaningful signals for the Korean household economy. Although the macro-prudential policies pertaining to the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) and debt-to-income ratio (DTI) are very effective, their effects can vary depending on the region or loan purpose. Furthermore, the DTI and credit score cannot always identify the default risks of mortgages not intended for housing purchases even though such mortgages are more vulnerable to macroeconomic changes. The observed changes in default behavior indicate that the government’s policies to promote fixed-rate loans have achieved a certain degree of success.     

Securitization and the Declining Impact of Bank Finance on Loan Supply: Evidence from Mortgage Originations

Low-cost deposits and increased balance sheet liquidity raise banks' supply of illiquid loans more than loans easily sold or securitized. We exploit the inability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase jumbo mortgages to identify an exogenous change in liquidity. The volume of jumbo mortgage originations relative to nonjumbo originations increases with bank holdings of liquid assets and decreases with bank deposit costs. This result suggests that the increasing depth of the mortgage secondary market fostered by securitization has reduced the effect of lender's financial condition on credit supply.     

Exporting Liquidity: Branch Banking and Financial Integration

Using exogenous liquidity windfalls from oil and natural gas shale discoveries, we demonstrate that bank branch networks help integrate U.S. lending markets. Banks exposed to shale booms enjoy liquidity inflows, which increase their capacity to originate and hold new loans. Exposed banks increase mortgage lending in nonboom counties, but only where they have branches and only for hard‐to‐securitize mortgages. Our findings suggest that contracting frictions limit the ability of arm's length finance to integrate credit markets fully. Branch networks continue to play an important role in financial integration, despite the development of securitization markets.     

以地融资、地方债务与杠杆——地方融资平台的土地抵押分析

中国的高经济杠杆率和地方债务风险受到广泛关注,目前较少研究地方债务中的银行贷款,而地方融资平台的土地抵押贷款是其中重要的融资来源。本文首次利用爬虫工具获取了中国土地市场网上的土地抵押数据,并且搜集了地方融资平台名单,通过对比融资平台和非平台公司的土地抵押信息,发现地方融资平台在抵押金额和抵押率上,都显著高于非融资平台的土地抵押。我们进行了各种稳健性检验,通过采用PSM方法,降低样本选择偏误,发现结果是稳健的。此外,本文还探究了背后的政治经济学因素,发现中西部的抵押金额和抵押率显著高于东部;未到期的城投债存量越大,土地抵押越大;地方政府的经济增长压力越大,土地抵押也越大。这一定程度上意味着,融资平台获得的土地抵押较高,是出于地方政府强烈的举债动机和对信贷市场的干预,导致信贷资源的无效率配置。即使是土地抵押这种相对来说风险较小的融资渠道,依然可能蕴含着地方债务风险,这也为地方债务融资的抵押率高提供了证据。     

Determinants of Mortgage Default and Consumer Credit Use: The Effects of Foreclosure Laws and Foreclosure Delays

The mortgage default decision is part of a complex household credit management problem. We examine how factors affecting mortgage default spill over to other credit markets. As home equity turns negative, homeowners default on mortgages and home equity lines of credit at higher rates, whereas they prioritize repaying credit cards and auto loans. Larger unused credit card limits intensify the preservation of credit cards over housing debt. Although mortgage nonrecourse statutes increase default on all types of housing debt, they reduce credit card defaults. Foreclosure delays increase default rates for housing and nonhousing debts. Our analysis highlights the interconnectedness of debt repayment decisions.     

Entrepreneurship and household portfolio choice: Evidence from the China Household Finance Survey

The efficient allocation of household assets is important for household wealth and entrepreneurial activities. However, there is scarce evidence on how entrepreneurial activities influence household financial decisions. We use a simple model to characterize the impact of entrepreneurship on household portfolio choice and the two underlying channels—the diversification effect and the risk substitution effect. We also empirically examine the impact of entrepreneurship using data from the 2013, 2015, and 2017 waves of the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS). The empirical results show that entrepreneurship significantly decreases both household risky market participation and risky asset holding. These findings are robust to alternative measurements of key variables, different model specifications, and Lewbel’s two-stage estimators. This study also verifies the co-existence of both the diversification and risk substitution effects. In particular, the net effect of entrepreneurship on household portfolio choice varies between urban and rural areas due to the different offsetting results between the two effects.     

Housing and the mortgage securities markets: Review,outlook, and policy recommendations

During the 1980s, strong demographic demand for housing created a bulging need for mortgage credit. The mortgage market has creatively accommodated this need through extensive securitization of residential mortgages. This process greatly facilitated the financing of housing demand. During this decade, however, the scheme of funding long-term mortgages with short-term deposits bankrupted savings institutions. A gigantic federal bailout for thrifts was finally required. In the 1990s, the weakening demographics and the resulting reduction in the demand for mortgage credit afford the federal government opportunities to reformulate its housing policies in terms of limiting federal insurance on consumer deposits, phasing out income tax deductibility of mortgage interest, and ensuring capital adequacy at federally sponsored credit agencies.     

Credit History and the Performance of Prime and Nonprime Mortgages

Although nonprime lending has experienced steady or even explosive growth over the last decade very little is known about the performance characteristics of these mortgages. Using data from national secondary market institutions, this paper estimates a competing risks proportional hazard model, which includes unobserved heterogeneity. The analysis examines the performance of 30-year fixed rate owner occupied home purchase mortgages from February 1995 to the end of 1999 and compares nonprime and prime loan default and prepayment behavior. Nonprime loans are identified by mortgage interest rates that are substantially higher than the prevailing prime rate. Results indicate that nonprime mortgages differ significantly from prime mortgages: they have different risk characteristics at origination; they default at elevated levels; and they respond differently to the incentives to prepay and default. For instance, nonprime mortgages are less responsive to how much the option to call the mortgage or refinance is in the money and this effect is magnified for mortgages with low credit scores. Tests also reveal that default rates are less responsive to homeowner equity when credit scores are included in the specification.     

The Economics of Low-Income Mortgage Lending

The presumption that mortgage markets for low-income borrowers and neighborhoods are underserved by lenders has led to a variety of increased government interventions on the supply side of the housing market. Although many studies of low-income lending at the neighborhood level have been published, none is from the firm's perspective. We adopt such a framework to test the twin propositions that the low-income mortgage market is no different from the non-low-income mortgage market and that the low-income mortgage market is underserved.We examine empirically whether the operating costs including credit losses, revenues, and profits of savings and loan institutions engaged in more low-income lending differ systematically from those that do less low-income lending. We find that firms engaged in more low-income mortgage lending have higher costs than those engaged in less low-income lending, which is consistent with higher credit risk for low-income loans. Nevertheless, these firms are no more profitable than those that do less low-income lending, which is inconsistent with a market for low-income mortgage lending that is currently underserved.