住房公积金、购房信贷与家庭消费——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的实证研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

住房公积金制度在为缴存家庭提供优惠贷款和免税储蓄的同时,也使缴存家庭消费受到利息损失、流动性约束、贷款额度限制等因素的影响。本文通过考察住房公积金对不同类型缴存家庭消费的处理效应,评估制度对缴存家庭福利的影响。基于面板数据的IV-2SLS回归研究发现:住房公积金对无房无贷和有房有贷缴存家庭的消费并无显著影响,仅能提高有房无贷缴存家庭的消费水平。有必要提高制度对缴存家庭住房融资的支持效率,降低制度对缴存家庭的流动性约束,以增进缴存家庭的消费与福利。     

住房公积金对家庭金融脆弱性影响研究——基于中国家庭金融调查数据

住房公积金制度作为我国重要的住房保障制度之一，其作用效果对家庭金融脆弱性有着重要影响。本文基于2011—2019年共五期中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据，利用Probit模型实证检验住房公积金制度对我国家庭金融脆弱性的影响。结果显示，缴存住房公积金显著降低了家庭金融脆弱性，对于有房有贷、无房无贷、“体制内”以及近期有购房意愿家庭的金融脆弱性的抑制效果更为显著。机制检验结果表明，缓解家庭流动性约束和提高家庭风险承担能力是住房公积金制度缓解家庭金融脆弱性的关键机制。     

三部委再推支持自住房政策业内称将提振购房者预期

日前,住建部、财政部、央行三部委联合下发了《关于发展住房公积金个人住房贷款业务的通知》（以下简称《通知》）,内容包括放松公积金贷款条件、推进异地贷款、降低中间费用三项内容,以提高住房公积金缴存职工住房消费能力,支持缴存职工购买首套和改善型自住住房.     

公积金贷款门槛降低好处多多

<正>为提高住房公积金缴存职工住房消费能力,支持缴存职工购买首套和改善型自住住房,根据《住房公积金管理条例》的有关规定,10月9号,住房城乡建设部、财政部、人民银行联合印发《关于发展住房公积金个人住房贷款业务的通知》,要求各地实现住房公积金缴存异地互认和转移接续,并推进异地贷款业务;明确职工连续足额缴存住房公积金6个月(含)以上即可申请住房公积金个人住房贷款;同时,此次《通知》还取消了住房公积金个人住房贷款保     

公积金贷款门槛降低好处多多

为提高住房公积金缴存职工住房消费能力,支持缴存职工购买首套和改善型自住住房,根据《住房公积金管理条例》的有关规定,10月9号,住房城乡建设部、财政部、人民银行联合印发《关于发展住房公积金个人住房贷款业务的通知》,要求各地实现住房公积金缴存异地互认和转移接续,并推进异地贷款业务;明确职工连续足额缴存住房公积金6个月（含）以上即可申请住房公积金个人住房贷款;同时,此次《通知》还取消了住房公积金个人住房贷款保险、公证、新房评估和强制性机构担保等收费项目。     

住房公积金财务管理创新研究

住房公积金制度是我国城镇住房制度改革的一项创举.1991年上海市借鉴新加坡公积金制度的成功经验,结合我国国情率先建立了住房公积金制度.1994年《国务院关于深化城镇住房制度改革的决定》发布后,住房公积金制度在全国逐步建立起来.1999年国务院《住房公积金管理条例》(于2002年修订,以下简称《条例》)颁发后,住房公积金制度在全国迅速推开.近年来,住房公积金制度进入加速发展的快车道.根据建设部的统计数据,截至2010年12月末,全国住房公积金的实际缴存人数已达到8618.3万人,累计缴存总额32468.53亿元,共向1338.40万户缴存住房公积金的职工家庭发放个人住房贷款18570.91亿元,职工累计购房等提取使用住房公积金14756.22亿元.住房公积金制度的建立和发展,对推进我国住房制度改革、开辟住宅建设融资的新渠道、加快城镇住房建设、增强职工住房商品意识、调整个人消费结构、拉动个人住房消费、改善城镇居民居住条件、促进社会稳定等方面发挥了积极的作用.如何管理好、使用好住房公积金这笔越聚越大的住房资金,已成为社会关注的焦点问题.本文拟就进一步发挥住房公积金在住房保障构建和谐社会的作用,创新住房公积金财务管理运作模式进行探讨     

关系型借贷视角下购房融资方式与家庭创业行为——基于2017年中国家庭金融调查的实证研究

本文利用2017年中国家庭金融调查数据深入考察购房融资方式对家庭创业行为的影响。研究结果显示,相较于民间借贷购房的家庭,按揭贷款购房的家庭参与创业活动的可能性更高,且更倾向于主动创业。进一步机制分析发现,相较于民间借贷购房,按揭贷款购房能够降低家庭的流动性约束,缓解家庭的资金压力,从而促进创业。同时,按揭贷款购房能使家庭获得充足的贷款额度与较长的贷款期限,进而有助于家庭创业。而且在偿还按揭贷款的过程中,家庭能与银行建立长期良好的信贷关系,从而有助于提高家庭获得正规信贷的可能性,促进家庭创业。为了积极推进创业创新的战略部署,应进一步健全银行信贷体系,发展和完善住房金融制度,从而有利于缓解小微企业融资难、融资贵的问题,释放和激发家庭创业活力。     

缴存者行为对住房公积金缴存额的影响研究——基于广州市的实证分析

住房公积金的归集为住房公积金制度提供资金源泉,对住房公积金的提取、使用和管理发挥着至关重要的作用.本文以广州市2011年单位和职工抽样调查的数据为基础,建立Tobit模型分别分析该市住房公积金缴存单位和个人的缴存行为与住房公积金缴存额之间的关系.结果表明:单位类型和单位职工人数影响单位住房公积金缴存额.个人年龄、婚否、所在单位类型、月平均收入影响个人住房公积金缴存额,而个人户口、性别以及受教育程度与住房公积金缴存额之间并无显著关系.这一结论为扩大住房公积金覆盖面的政策提供了有益的启示.     

北京市住房公积金缴存上限上调的效应分析

本文在对住房公积金制度进行概述的基础上．对比北京市2006—2008年住房公积金的使用状况．总结了住房公积金制度实施过程中存在的问题及形成原因。通过对住房公积金缴存上限上调对制度目标达成的效应分析，得出了住房公积金缴存上限上调改革对于完善住房公积金制度难以发挥根本性作用的结论．进而提出了进一步健全住房公积金制度的对策建议。     

浅谈我国住房公积金制度存在的缺陷及建议

住房公积金的属性是个人所有,但归集以后实行社会化管理,作用是互济助困,解决住房问题。然而,随着社会经济的发展,住房公积金制度已经不能适应新形势下的要求,本文探讨了现阶段住房公积金制度存在的一些缺陷,如管理机构的设计存在缺陷,覆盖范围窄,资金使用渠道单一,缴存比例不规范,分配不公,使用不公平,保障功能单一,受益面发生偏差,资金使用效率较低,沉淀大等。文章也对应地提出了几点合理的建议:改革现有的管理模式,实行弹性公积金缴存率制度,扩大制度覆盖范围,拓宽提取范围,提高使用效率。以求解决我国住房公积金制度存在的问题。     

Current Wealth,Housing Purchase,and Private Housing Loan Demand in Japan

Japanese households accumulate wealth for down payments at a high rate. Therefore, current wealth plays an important role in home acquisition as well as public loans whose direct mortgage lending is a strong support for home purchasers. We estimate the wealth effect on private mortgage debt as well as housing consumption by applying a model where mortgage-debt demand is derived from house-purchase decisions and is determined jointly with housing consumption. We use a simultaneous equation Tobit estimation method. Wealth effects on private mortgage debt, likelihood of borrowing, and housing consumption are not elastic. On the other hand, a change in housing consumption affects the likelihood of borrowing elastically much more than the private mortgage amount of borrowers. Housing and private mortgage markets fluctuate very closely with the number of participants in the mortgage market. Therefore, the number of housing starts is linked strongly to the private mortgage market.     

我国居民杠杆率现状及影响因素研究

近年来,我国居民部门杠杆率的快速上升引起社会各界关注。本文使用货币信贷和城镇储户调查数据,对我国居民部门杠杆率和偿债能力现状进行了分析,并运用各省住户贷款数据计算各省的居民杠杆率,使用面板数据模型对居民杠杆率上升的原因进行了实证分析。结果表明,房价的快速上涨和住房销售的增长都对居民部门杠杆率的上升有显著正向影响,其中房价上涨的影响程度更大。此外,金融发展水平和老年人抚养比对居民杠杆率有正向影响,少年人抚养比对居民杠杆率有负向影响。     

Risk-based pricing of interest rates for consumer loans

By focusing on observable default risk's role in loan terms and the subsequent consequences for household behavior, this paper shows that lenders increasingly used risk-based pricing of interest rates in consumer loan markets during the mid-1990s. It tests three resulting predictions: First, the premium paid per unit of risk should have increased over this period. Second, debt levels should have reacted accordingly. Third, fewer high-risk households should have been denied credit, further contributing to the interest rate spread between the highest- and lowest-risk borrowers.For people obtaining loans, the premium paid per unit of risk did indeed become significantly larger after the mid-1990s. For example, for a 0.01 increase in the probability of bankruptcy, the corresponding interest-rate increase tripled for first mortgages, doubled for automobile loans and rose nearly six-fold for second mortgages. Additionally, changes in borrowing levels and debt access reflected these new pricing practices, particularly for secured debt. Borrowing increased most for the low-risk households who saw their relative borrowing costs fall. Furthermore, while very high-risk households gained expanded access to credit, the increases in their risk premiums implied that their borrowing as a whole either rose less or, sometimes, fell.     

Borrowing in foreign currency: Austrian households as carry traders

Household borrowing in a foreign currency is a widespread phenomenon in Austria. Thirteen percent of Austrian households report their housing loan to be denominated in foreign currency, mostly Swiss franc. Yet, despite its importance, peculiar character, and acute policy concerns, we know little about the attitudes and characteristics of the households involved in this type of carry trade. We analyze a uniquely detailed financial wealth survey of 2556 Austrian households to sketch a comprehensive profile of the attitudes and characteristics of the households involved. We employ both univariate tests and multivariate multinomial logit models. The survey data suggest that risk seeking, affluent, and married households are more likely to take a housing loan in a foreign currency. Financially literate or high-income households are more likely to take a housing loan in general. These findings partially assuage policy concerns about household default risk on foreign-currency housing loans or household retirement security.     

住房公积金与家庭风险金融资产投资——基于2013年CHFS的实证研究

作为我国重要的住房保障制度,住房公积金对家庭风险金融资产投资的影响鲜有研究。本文基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,采用probit和tobit模型,检验住房公积金对家庭风险金融资产投资的影响。实证结果表明,住房公积金能显著提高有房家庭风险金融资产投资的可能性和投资比重,但是对无房家庭的风险金融资产投资则无显著影响。研究其影响机制发现,住房公积金会提高家庭可支配收入、增加户主风险偏好,从而促进家庭风险金融资产投资。本文研究结论对完善住房公积金制度、引导居民家庭合理投资风险金融资产和实现多渠道增加居民财产性收入有借鉴意义。     

The Effect of Down Payment Assistance on Mortgage Choice

Lack of wealth for a down payment is one of the most recognized barriers to home ownership. In response to this barrier, state and federal government have implemented many programs that provide down payment assistance to potential home buyers. Numerous studies have shown that this assistance can increase homeownership rates, but few have measured how receiving assistance may alter borrowing behavior. Using data from a down payment assistance grant in the Midwest, this study compares the loan type and size of grant recipients to other borrowers that report similar income and buy homes in the same census tract. Results indicate grant recipients are more likely to use conventional loans, which are less expensive than other loan types that require a smaller down payment. Estimates also suggest that the grant may reduce loan size for borrowers who are on the margin of using a conventional loan.     

2014年二季度吉林省经济金融形势分析及预测

从二季度区域经济运行情况来看：我省工业生产总体增速放缓,全省多数市/州工业出现下滑,民营经济显著回落,工业用电和铁路货运持续低位运行;三大需求全面回落,消费需求回落至中低速增长区间,固定资产投资增速下降明显,净出口增速持续收窄,外贸形势较为严峻;劳动力市场低位运行,就业和用工整体形势不容乐观,但企业一线用工情况有所改善;财政收支压力持续加大,收入减速和支出加速并存;房地产市场下行压力加大,商品房销量下滑显著,库存压力不断加大,商品房价格环比持续下降;消费者价格指数小幅回升,工业生产者价格低位企稳。从金融运行情况来看：各项贷款增速略有回落,受临储粮贷款投放减少影响,短期贷款增势放缓,中长期贷款增幅回升,单位中长期贷款呈增长势头,单位固定资产贷款强势增长;二产贷款增速、增量占比均有所提升,但信贷集中投向三产的格局并未改变;分企业规模类型看,小型企业贷款同比显著增长;单位存款增速持续放缓,存款定期化趋势增强预示宏观经济偏冷;居民投资结构有所调整,理财产品发放导致储蓄存款分流明显。     

信用卡、风险应对与城镇家庭股市参与

信用卡市场的发展有利于家庭平滑消费,但是否会影响家庭的投资决策尚缺少事实检验。基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2011和2013年的调查数据,本文首次检验了信用卡对城镇家庭股市投资的影响。研究发现:(1)控制家庭财富、融资渠道、社会资本等特征,持有信用卡在边际上促进了家庭的股市参与率,股市投资额取决于信用额度。(2)中国信用卡市场的发展,并未像流动性约束理论预测的可以平滑消费,反而刺激了家庭风险性资产的配置,最终提高了储蓄率。原因在于,中国家庭更多地将信用卡作为应对未来短期突发性风险的金融工具,从而在当期将更多资产配置在风险资产上,以实现资本积累。使用信用卡数目、信用额度等多种衡量方式,并采用工具变量法(IV)和面板数据固定效应模型等解决内生性问题后,该结论稳健。该研究有助于理解信用卡在中国家庭投资决策的作用,并为流动性约束或有限股市参与假说提供中国经验。     

Pricing of Loan Commitments for Facilitating Stochastic Liquidity Needs

A bank loan commitment is often priced as a European-style put option that is used by a company with a known borrowing need on a known future date to lock in an interest rate. The literature has abstracted some of the important institutional features of a loan commitment contract. First, the timing, number, and size of the loan takedowns under such a contract are often random, rather than fixed. Second, companies often use loan commitment contracts to reduce the transaction costs of frequent borrowing and to serve as a guarantee for large and immediate random liquidity needs. Third, commercial banks maintain liquidity reserves for making random spot loans or random committed loans. Partial loan takedowns raise, rather than lower, the opportunity cost of a committed bank??s holding of excess capacity. This paper introduces a ??stochastic needs-based?? pricing model that incorporates these features. Simulations are conducted to illustrate the effects of various parameters on the fair price of a loan commitment.