Dollarization of bank deposits: Causes and consequences

This paper assesses the benefits and risks associated with dollarization of bank deposits. We provide novel empirical evidence on the determinants of deposit dollarization, its role in promoting financial development, and on whether dollarization is associated with financial instability. We find that: (a) the credibility of macroeconomic policy and the quality of institutions are both key determinants of cross-country variations in dollarization; (b) dollarization is likely to promote financial deepening only in a high inflation environment; and (c) financial instability is likely higher in dollarized economies. The implications of these findings for financial sector and monetary policies are briefly discussed.     

Financial dollarization: The role of foreign-owned banks and interest rates

Why in many economies households and firms borrow and make deposits in foreign currency? Expanding on the existing literature, our framework addresses this question allowing for interest rate differentials and access to foreign funds to play a role in explaining this process of asset substitution or financial dollarization. Using a newly compiled data set on transition economies and employing a standard panel as well as a panel-VAR methodology we find that increasing access to foreign funds leads to higher credit dollarization, while it decreases deposit dollarization. Interest rate differentials matter for the dollarization of both loans and deposits.     

Financial dollarization: Short-run determinants in transition economies

This paper examines the determinants of financial dollarization in transition economies from a short-run perspective. Using aggregate monthly data of deposit and loan dollarization we study the drivers of short-term fluctuations in dollarization and test their importance at different levels of dollarization. The results provide evidence that (a) the positive (negative) short-run effects of depreciation (monetary expansion) on deposit dollarization are exacerbated in high-dollarization countries; (b) short-run loan dollarization is mainly driven by banks matching of domestic loans and deposits, currency matching of assets and liabilities, international financial integration, and institutional quality; and (c) both types of short-run dollarization are affected by interest rate differentials and deviations from desired dollarization.     

What drives credit dollarization in transition economies?

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the use of foreign currencies in the lending activities of banks in transition economies. The impact of bank and firm variables on credit dollarization is studied in an optimal portfolio allocation model and estimated using new aggregate data for 21 transition economies for the period 1990–2003. Empirical results provide evidence that credit dollarization is the combined outcome of domestic deposit dollarization and banks’ desire for currency-matched portfolios beyond regulatory requirements. The effects of international financial factors and natural hedges are less robust across alternative specifications. The paper further discusses the role of regulations in affecting the impact of these factors on credit dollarization and calls for more developed domestic forward foreign exchange markets.     

Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences

We review some aspects of financial dollarization in Russia, applying the main relevant theories to analyse the dynamics of several dollarization indicators. An econometric model of the short-run dynamics of deposit and loan dollarization is estimated for the last decade. We find that ruble appreciation was the main driver of the de-dollarization that occurred then and of the later episode of renewed dollarization. We estimate the overall (and sectoral) currency mismatches of the Russian economy. Evidence is presented for the significant currency risk vulnerability of the non-banking private sector.     

Dollars, Debt, and International Financial Institutions: Dedollarizing Multilateral Lending

Financial dollarization is increasingly seen as a concern becauseof its tendency to contribute to financial crises and outputvolatility. As a result the debate on financial dollarizationhas shifted in favor of a more proactive stance on dedollarization.While often neglected, lending from international financialinstitutions is an important source of financial dollarizationin emerging economies and must be considered in any dedollarizationstrategy. This article revisits old and new arguments in favorof international financial institution lending in the localcurrency and argues that any such initiative should rely, atleast initially, on demand from residents seeking stable returnsin units of the local consumption basket but who are reluctantto take on sovereign risk. Superior enforcement capacity enablesinternational financial institutions to intermediate these savings,currently invested in dollarized foreign assets, back into thelocal economy. The international financial institutions canoffer investment-grade local currency bonds and use the proceedsto dedollarize their own lending to noninvestment-grade countries,thereby reducing financial dollarization and fostering the developmentof local currency markets.     

Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence

This paper explores the persistence of financial dollarization in a group of 79 economies with different levels of development. Our main hypothesis is that a high level of domestic debt combined with default risk explains this persistence, even after a decline in inflation rates. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) in a panel data analysis, our results show that inflation risks caused by increasing probability of default account for financial dollarization more than inflation rate itself. After the decrease in inflation rates, the foreign currency-denominated deposits remain large because of the high debt-to-GDP ratios, particularly in speculative-grade economies. High public indebtedness leads to expectations of default. Dollarization is a rational response to the future inflation associated with investors' expectations of default observed in highly indebted economies.     

Dollarization persistence and individual heterogeneity

A salient feature of financial dollarization, arguably the one that causes most concern to policymakers, is its persistence: even after successful macroeconomic stabilizations, dollarization ratios often remain high. In this paper we argue that this persistence is connected to the fact that the participants in the dollar deposit market are fairly heterogenous, and so is the way they form their optimal currency portfolio. We develop a simple model when agents differ in their ability to process information, which turns out to be enough to generate persistence upon aggregation. We provide empirical evidence that is consistent with this claim.     

Does Inflation Targeting Help Reduce Financial Dollarization?

We examine whether adopting an inflation‐targeting regime helps reduce financial dollarization as predicted by Ize and Levy Yeyati's ( 2003 ) portfolio model. To address the self‐selection problem of policy adoption, we apply a variety of propensity score matching methods to a large sample of 106 developing countries for the years 1985–2004. We find strong evidence that inflation targeting has large and significant treatment effects on lowering both actual financial dollarization and the model implied minimum variance portfolio dollarization. Our results are robust to alternative samples and model specifications and also to control for additional factors in postmatching regressions.     

What's Special About Banks?

I delineate six aspects of how banks have been “special” (although not unique) and then consider whether and to what extent these attributes are still relevant. These include efficiently produced products, importance for the development and growth of economies, international scope, role in economic instability and the conduct of monetary policy, early regulation by governments, and source of data for academic researchers and institutions. Despite changes in the environment and in the ways in which financial services are provided, banks still are special. However, their specialness for public policy concerns is now limited to frauds and deposit insurance. I suggest ways in which these concerns can be dealt with efficiently.     

中国欠发达区域经济发展与金融生态环境的关联性——以江西省经济与金融的发展模型为例

江西省地处中国的中东部地区，具有欠发达区域经济的典型特征。文章以江西省近20年来的经济金融发展实况为体例，对金融生态环境评价模型的分析和演绎证明：一方面，金融机构内部环境因素，对区域性经济发展有着及其重要的作用；另一方面，金融机构外部环境因素与区域性经济发展具有极强的关联性。区域性金融生态环境的建设，直接影响到区域性资源配置和资源使用效率。金融生态环境建设，不仅要关注金融机构内部环境因素的影响，同时也要着力研究金融机构外部环境因素的改善。对于欠发达区域的金融生态环境建设而言，应从推进城镇化建设、提高人均受教育年限、改革社会保障制度、完善制度生成环境等方面予以支持。     

构建实现中部经济跨越式发展的金融支撑平台

中部指湖北、湖南、河南、安徽和江西五省,在我国总体经济发展格局中具有重要地位.本文通过对中部五省的金融资源状况进行省际与市际比较后认为,构建中部金融支撑平台是从金融途径取得跨越式发展的途径之一;同时指出,由于武汉在中部五省经济金融中具有特殊重要的地位,建立以武汉为中心的中部发展金融支撑平台具有现实意义.作者在对金融支撑平台建立的总体构思进行定性描述之后,从建立武汉为中心的区域金融控股体系,建立以郑州商品期货交易市场为依托的武汉股指期货交易平台,注重体外循环资金平台的利用,建立中部五省统一的网络化金融服务平台四个方面详细阐述了具体策略的实施.     

Systemic Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets: A Panel-Based Approach

This study investigates the impact of systemic risks and financialdollarization on real interest rates in emerging economies.Higher systemic risks induce both higher real interest ratesand increased dollarization. Using appropriate instruments forthe dollarization ratio, the study overcomes the simultaneousequation problem and correctly estimates a negative coefficientfor the dollarization ratio in the interest rate equation. Itconfirms the theoretical prediction that a strategy of "dedollarizing"the economy will raise the equilibrium domestic real interestrate if the strategy fails to address fundamental macroeconomicrisks. Even so, it also finds that this effect is small, aftercontrolling for the risks of dilution and default. The resultsbring to light the systemic-risk reasons for high interest ratesin emerging economies—and contribute to evaluating thedifficulties of dedollarization policies.     

The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest‐Rate–Growth Differentials: Financial Repression or Income Catch‐Up?

The interest‐rate–growth differential (IRGD) plays a critical role in determining the sustainability of government debt. Yet it is striking that IRGDs are correlated with income levels, and are generally negative in emerging and developing economies, which contradicts standard economic theory. Negative IRGDs constitute a powerful debt‐stabilising force, driving down debt ratios or keeping them stable even in the presence of persistent primary deficits. Motivated by the puzzling facts, this paper examines the IRGDs for a large panel of advanced and non‐advanced economies by utilising a newly assembled data set. The evidence shows that large negative IRGDs in emerging and developing economies are largely due to real interest rates well below market equilibrium – stemming from financial repression and captive and distorted markets – whereas the income catch‐up process plays a relatively modest role. Therefore, the IRGD in non‐advanced economies is likely to rise with financial market development and financial global integration, perhaps even before their GDP per capita converges to advanced‐economy levels.     

Has Finance Made the World Riskier?

Developments in the financial sector have led to an expansion in its ability to spread risks. The increase in the risk bearing capacity of economies, as well as in actual risk taking, has led to a range of financial transactions that hitherto were not possible, and has created much greater access to finance for firms and households. On net, this has made the world much better off. Concurrently, however, we have also seen the emergence of a whole range of intermediaries, whose size and appetite for risk may expand over the cycle. Not only can these intermediaries accentuate real fluctuations, they can also leave themselves exposed to certain small probability risks that their own collective behaviour makes more likely. As a result, under some conditions, economies may be more exposed to financial‐sector‐induced turmoil than in the past. The paper discusses the implications for monetary policy and prudential supervision. In particular, it suggests market‐friendly policies that would reduce the incentive of intermediary managers to take excessive risk.     

A Survey of Emerging Derivatives Markets

This paper summarizes theoretical and empirical research on the roles and functions of emerging derivatives markets and the resulting implications on policy and regulations. Previous studies revealed that commodity derivatives markets offered an effective and welfare-improving method to deal with price volatility. Financial derivatives markets have helped to support capital inflows into emerging market economies. On the other hand, the use of financial derivatives has led to exacerbated volatility and accelerated capital outflow. There is a consensus that derivatives are seldom the cause of a financial crisis but they could amplify the negative effects of the crisis and accelerate contagion. Previous studies of derivatives markets have supported the hedging role of emerging derivatives markets. Empirical results from a few emerging countries suggest a price discovery function of emerging futures markets. The findings on the price stabilization function of emerging derivatives markets are mixed. Finally, recent research has documented that constructive development of derivatives markets in emerging market economies needs to be supported by sound macroeconomic fundamentals as well as updated financial policies and regulations.     

Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises

To understand the determinants of financial crises, previous research focused on developments closely related to financial markets. In contrast, this paper considers changes originating in the real economy as drivers of financial instability. To this end, I assemble a novel data set of long-run measures of income inequality, productivity, and other macrofinancial indicators for advanced economies. I find that rising top income inequality and low productivity growth are robust predictors of crises, and their slow-moving trend components largely explain these relations. Moreover, recessions that are preceded by such developments are deeper than recessions without such ex ante trends.     

中国金融部门货币错配测算研究

本文从两个方面修正了货币错配测算模型。一方面,引入了表外的外币资产和负债及金融部门的外币衍生工具;另一方面,运用GDP剔除经济规模的影响。在此基础上,本文利用修正的ACMAQ模型,以中国金融部门24家上市企业的数据为基础,估算了中国金融部门的货币错配情况。本文发现,2001～2004年间,中国金融部门存在轻微的债权型货币错配,但2005年以后中国金融部门债权型货币错配现象十分严重。     

金融创新、金融风险与中国金融监管模式

金融创新对宏观政策的制定、金融市场运行、商业银行透明度均有影响,它能够管理和控制金融风险,也能增大金融风险,还将对金融稳定性产生很大的负面影响。中国的金融监管应建立健全银行、证券、保险监管机构间以及与宏观调控部门的协调机制,通过中国金融监督管理委员会与国际性金融监管组织的合作,积极参与国际金融监管准则的制定,借鉴国外金融监管经验,不断提高金融监管的专业化水平。     

Who benefits from financial liberalization? Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies

In recent decades most countries have implemented significant reforms to foster financial liberalization. This article examines to what extent these reforms have benefited advanced economies and emerging market economies. We focus on four groups of countries: the G-7, other European countries, Latin America and East Asia over the period 1973–2006. We find evidence supporting the hypothesis that the different forms of financial liberalization affected growth differently in the four groups of countries. The main finding is that the benefits of financial liberalization are more important for advanced economies. In contrast, financial liberalization in emerging market economies has a weak positive impact on growth when its scope is limited, whereas full liberalization has been associated with slower economic growth.