快速发展与隐忧——上市银行2004年年度财务报告分析（续上期）

截至2005年4月30日,招商银行、浦发银行、民生银行、华夏银行和深发展都公布了2004年度报告。通过对五家上市银行年报的分析,我们发现上市银行快速发展与隐忧并存。2004年上市银行的业绩平稳增长,中间业务发展势头迅猛,但是盈利结构依然较为单一,中间业务比重不高。2004年上市银行的规模扩张势头有所放缓,但是几年来的高速扩张带来的不良贷款绝对额增加、资本充足率下降、流动性负缺口等问题已逐渐显现。随着存贷利差缩小,存贷差和资本充足率逼近警戒线,以及竞争的加剧,上市银行将经历更大的挑战。     

上市银行2005年上半年经营情况分析

六家境内外上市银行上半年度财务报告均已公布完毕,纵观这些银行的经营成果,既有资产规模较快增长,盈利能力持续增强的一面,也存在着一些问题。资本充足率偏低,资本储备不足限制了上市银行资产规模的进一步扩张。收入结构不尽合理,存贷利差收入占比居高不下,业务收入增长后劲不足。在不良贷款占比持续下降的同时,逾期贷款和非应计贷款均有较大幅度的增长,上市银行的资产质量仍然存在一定隐患。     

关于商业银行公司信贷风险管理的策略研究

近年来,商业银行面临的宏观经济已经发生了深刻变化：企业融资渠道日益拓宽。金融脱媒（企业直接融资）趋势逐渐显性化：利率市场化步伐逐渐加快：资本充足率监管和资本约束日益强化。迫于压力。商业银行都在进行战略转型,业务结构上由对公向对私调整,收入结构上由利差收入向中间业务收入转移,但是目前我国绝大多数银行公司业务的比重太高,银行公司业务收入又过分依赖于存贷息差。     

对我国上市银行资本充足率的思考

2004年2月银监会颁布《商业银行资本充足率管理办法》,对我国商业银行资本充足率计算方法进行了规范,同时规定了商业银行资本充足率达标的最后期限。而我国五家上市银行近年来资本充足率水平总体呈下降趋势,与国际银行业存在着较大的差距。本文通过对我国上市银行资本充足率现状及其成因的分析,提出了提高资本充足率的对策建议。     

对我国上市银行资市充足率的思考

2004年2月银监会颁布《商业银行资本充足率管理办法》，对我国商业银行资本充足率计算方法进行了规范，同时规定了商业银行资本充足率达标的最后期限。而我国五家上市银行近年来资本充足率水平总体呈下降趋势，与国际银行业存在着较大的差距。本文通过对我国上市银行资本充足率现状及其成因的分析。提出了提高资本充足率的对策建议。     

巩固资本基础 增强风险控制能力——上市商业银行2005年度财务报告分析

目前，我国有七家商业银行在内地和香港上市。2005年，除了新上市的交通银行和建设银行外，其他上市银行的资本充足率均处于《巴塞尔协议》规定的底线边缘，同时，上市银行加速扩张资产规模，存款增速较快。虽然不良贷款率普遍下降，但是，部分上市银行的逾期贷款增加幅度确实令人担忧。巴塞尔银行监督管理委员会的一份报告应该让我们清醒地评估房地产贷款风险对银行系统的影响力。     

资本管制下商业银行战略选择对绩效的影响

以我国14家上市商业银行2004～2009年的平衡面板数据为样本,通过银行关键战略资源配置来体现银行战略选择,将银行战略问题从定性向定量转化,并通过理论建模和实证分析来研究资本管制、战略选择和绩效三者的关系。结果认为,资本管制对银行的资本充足率与绩效都存在显著直接影响;资本管制通过调整商业银行资本充足率,对绩效产生间接影响;管制压力与不同的战略资源配置的交互作用分别对资本充足率、绩效有不同的影响。     

更新理念 转变发展模式

资本约束机制，就是以资本充足率制约银行风险资产扩张的机制。2004年3月，中国银监会颁布实施《商业银行资本充足率管理办法》规定商业银行最迟要在2007年1月1日前达到8％的最低资本充足率要求。目前，商业银行正在逐步建立健全以资本金管理为核心的约束机制，确保资本充足率满足监管要求。     

资本充足率与中国商业银行风险的实证分析——来自中国33家商业银行的证据

本文使用中国银行业33家商业银行2004年-2011年的数据对资本充足率和银行风险的关系进行实证检验,实证结果表明资本充足率要求能够有效控制银行风险。此外,本文也证实了银行规模和市场竞争与银行风险存在反向关系,但是非利息收入的增加会增加银行风险。     

对我国银行上市的思考

银行上市有利于提高我国银行业的竞争业,有利于提高银行的资本充足率、加快银行的改革步伐、促进银行业规模扩张、改善上市公司的结构。银行在上市过程中必须首先解决银行股份制改造问题,同时要适当个性上市规则,解决好市场容量的限制和选择上市模式等问题。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…