新华富时中国A25指数ETF期权多空比值与上证综指关系研究

本文选取新华富时中国A25指数ETF认沽期权、认购期权交易量比值和上证综指日收益率为研究对象,考察这两个时间序列的联动关系及两个市场的波动溢出关系,力图证明该ETF期权认购期权交易量与认沽期权交易量的比值能够在一定程度上预测中国上证综指的走势。向量自回归模型表明,多空比值与指数收益率之间存在长期均衡关系,且多空比值是收益率的格兰杰因。之后提取VECM中的误差修正项,带入双变量EC-EGARCH-M模型,结果表明,两市场存在时间序列波动聚集性、非对称性和波动溢出效应。最后,本文利用前述结果总结并建立指数投资策略。在样本时间范围内,该类投资策略能够获得比大盘更高的收益。     

金融数学技巧在期权定价中的应用

金融数学是随着金融学的发展而逐渐兴起来的学科,有效结合了随机分析、概率统计学以及泛函分析等数学知识对金融投资领域中的风险与收益的评估提供了科学的数学分析结论,从而得出最佳的投资策略。期权在金融市场中具有重要的地位,在期权定价中运用金融数学的知识能够加强对期权收益与风险的评估从而促进金融学的的发展。     

新华富时中国A25指数ETF期权多空比值与上证综指关系研究

本文选取新华富时中国A25指数BTF认活期权、认购期权交易量比值和上证综指日收益率为研究对象,考察这两个时间序列的联动关系及两个市场的波动溢出关系,力图证明该ETF期权认购期权交易量与认沽期权交易量的比值能够在一定程度上预测中国上证综指的走势.向量自回归模型表明,多空比值与指数收益率之间存在长期均衡关系,且多空比值是收益率的格兰杰因.之后提取VECM中的误差修正项,带入双变量EC-EGARCH-M模型,结果表明,两市场存在时间序列波动聚集性、非对称性和波动溢出效应.最后,本文利用前述结果总结并建立指数投资策略.在样本时间范围内,该类投资策略能够获得比大盘更高的收益.     

实物期权下的私募股权分阶段投资模型

近些年来,实物期权的思想被广泛应用到私募股权的阶段投资策略当中,但学术界普遍假设阶段投资和一次性投资的后续现金流入是一定的,即同样一笔钱现在投资和未来投资获得的股权是一样的,这个假设过强且与实际相违背。在实际私募股权投资过程中,后续投资所能获得的股权往往会小于一次性投资。本文引入了股权比例这一变量,构建一个更贴合实际的模型,将实物期权理论引入私募股权投资阶段投资策略中,得出分阶段投资赋予了私募股权投资者一个看涨期权,但当被投资企业成长过快时,分阶段投资策略未必有效。     

基于期权博弈的投资时机选择

在不确定性和竞争性的策略互动环境中,根据投资时机相对性和绝对性的不同要求可以将期权博弈模型划分为绝对时机选择和相对时机选择两个类型。我们首先综述投资时机选择的期权博弈理论文献;然后以"随机最优停止问题"为研究基点,分别探讨投资时机选择的完全信息与不完全信息期权博弈模型;最后论述基于"追随-抢先模型"的投资时机选择期权博弈评价。     

灵活多变的期权基本交易策略

相比于股票和期货,期权是一种更为复杂也更为灵活的投资工具。利用传统的投资工具,投资者只能通过判断市场的涨跌获取收益,而利用期权,则无论是趋势市还是震荡市,几乎在所有的市场预期下,投资者都有相应的策略来捕获盈利并控制风险。本报告将结合不同的市场预期,介绍相应的期权基本交易策略。     

读者观点

企业并购中的实物期权企业并购属于战略投资行为,大多数情况下,企业实施并购的目的在于并购后能够产生良好的经营协同效应、市场协同效应或财务协同效应等,而不是期望当前就获得收益。因此,企业并购的这些性质说明并购投资具有类似于一般期权的性质,实物期权对企业并购战略的制定具有重要意义。企业实施并购可能是执行期权的行为也可能是创造期权     

调整市中不差"债"

中国经济正处于转型阶段,转型是否成功将决定中国经济未来的发展速度.资本市场向来就具有风险厌恶情结,投资者在这一情况下,一种策略就是观望,等待情况的明朗,但是投资时机是很难把握的,等待可能会错过难得的机会.现阶段最佳的投资策略是握有一个价格合适的看涨期权,可转债正好提供了这样一种看涨期权.     

论期权对股票市场的影响及其投资策略

期权的推出渐行渐进,其推出不仅不会直接导致市场的波动率增加,反而有望提升蓝筹股的估值,提高市场定价效率。作为全球交易量占比最大的权益类衍生品,期权是更为灵活和精细的风险管理工具,同时也可以极大地丰富投资策略,带来新的投资模式和机会,而根据期权价格衍生出的波动率指数更将促进我国衍生品市场走向成熟。     

基于HAR模型的上证50ETF波动率指数特征及应用研究

本文基于HAR模型对上证50ETF波动率指数(中国波指)进行研究。根据2015年2月9日至2017年2月16日中国波指运行的真实数据,构建一般HAR模型和扩展的HAR模型研究中国波指的特征。实证结果表明:中国波指具有显著的正周一效应;中国波指与上证50指数的收益负相关,且这种负相关具有非对称性。根据中国波指的预测结果,结合我国上证50ETF期权进行期权交易模拟发现,基于中国波指构建的期权投资策略能够取得较好的收益。     

Macroprudential policies and bank competition: International bank-level evidence

The paper analyzes the effect of changes in eight types of bank-oriented macroprudential policies on bank competition and stability. Using a bank-level database of a maximum of 2511 listed banks from 52 countries, I find that a tightening in bank-oriented macroprudential policies on average increases both bank competition and stability. However, there are differences across policies and countries. Loan supply and liquidity-based policies increase bank competition whereas capital and tax-based policies reduce bank competition. Tighter legal restrictions on entry and activity in a country reduce the positive (increase the negative) effect of macroprudential policies on bank competition. In terms of policy implications, I identify a sub-set of especially useful macroprudential policies that increase not only financial stability but also bank competition.     

半强制股利政策与股权融资成本

在一些国家,强制股利支付是改善公司治理和弥补法律保护不足的重要手段,我国自2001年起陆续出台了类似的半强制股利系列政策。然而现有部分研究却发现,半强制股利政策可能会产生监管“悖论”。那么,事实是否如此？以往这些研究主要从监管成本角度来分析,可能忽视了监管带来的收益,我们认为虽然半强制股利政策提高了融资门槛,但也可能实现股东之间的利益共享,并有利于投资者形成稳定的股利预期,从而实现治理的“溢价”。本文利用2008年监管政策提供的良好自然实验机会,主要从半强制股利政策的治理效应角度来评估政策产生的经济后果。研究发现,从总体平均意义上看,半强制股利政策有助于降低受影响公司的股权融资成本。进一步研究发现,在代理成本高的公司,半强制股利政策的治理作用更为明显,存在一定的治理“溢价”。当然,半强制股利政策也存在一定的局限性,在公司的信息披露质量差和外部融资约束较大的公司,半强制股利政策的治理效应被削弱。     

What provides the micro-foundation of monetary policies in the absence of mature economic institutions?

In the absence of mature economic institutions, what provides the micro-foundation of monetary policies? Taking corporate financing of China's firms as a representative example, first, our data suggest that financial access of firms becomes indeed squeezed as the monetary policies require. Then we confirm that government intervention leads firms' financial access to become difficult since the financial contraction policies. We also provide evidence that government intervention indeed promotes severity of access to finance. These evidences confirm that government intervention squeezes financial access after central government's financial contraction policies and that government intervention functions to support the implementation of monetary policies. Therefore, this paper shows that government intervention provides micro-foundation of the monetary policies in the absence of mature economic institutions.     

税收政策如何支持资源型城市可持续发展

资源型城市可持续发展需要税收政策的引导和支持。从可持续发展的角度出发,应加强可持续税制建设,综合运用各种税收政策,突出国家产业政策导向,并辅之高效的税收优惠机制,全面发挥税收职能,为资源型城市可持续发展提供保障。     

Marktversagen auf dem geförderten Pflegezusatzversicherungsmarkt?

This study analyzes the supply side of the private German long term care insurance market. It compares loads and comprehensiveness of subsidized and unsubsidized insurance policies for three age groups. The results show that subsidized insurance policies are less comprehensive than unsubsidized insurance policies. In addition the premiums of subsidized policies are marked up substantially above expected benefits compared to unsubsidized policies. All in all these results indicate market failure due to adverse selection within the subsidized private long term care insurance market. Furthermore, the results show that due to unisex pricing, private long term care policies are in general more attractive to women than to men. As this is not reflected in demand, other factors than supply side failure seem to contribute to an overall low demand for private long term care insurance policies.     

Monetary policy,government control and capital investment: Evidence from China

This study examines how the relationships between local governments and local enterprises moderate the effect of targeted monetary policies through different action-propagating mechanisms. First, we investigate the impact of monetary policies on enterprise investment in areas with different institutional environments. Second, we investigate the impact of monetary policies on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with different property rights structures. Third, we examine how political connections can influence the action-propagating mechanism of monetary policies. We conclude that in China monetary policies have different effects on SOEs and on private enterprises with or without political connections. Specifically, local government interventions can significantly weaken and distort the effects of monetary policies, such that the intended reduction in investment is noticeably alleviated for SOEs and private enterprises with close links to local governments.     

对云南省执行企业所得税优惠政策的调查与思考

从云南省执行企业所得税优惠政策的实践可以看出,在经济欠发达区域,税收优惠政策的作用尚未有效发挥,存在着一些影响政策运行的现实问题。据此,本文提出了完善企业所得税优惠政策的思路及建议。     

地方人才引进政策与公司人力资本北大核心

本文以地方人才引进政策的颁布为准自然实验,考察人才引进政策对当地公司人力资本的影响,以检验人才引进政策在微观层面的经济后果。结果发现,地方人才引进政策显著改善了当地公司的人力资本水平;在小城市、竞争性行业、大规模和声誉好的公司中,地方人才引进政策对提高公司人力资本水平的作用更强。效率检验表明,地方人才引进政策显著提高了公司的全要素生产率。但同时也发现,地方人才引进政策降低了公司的薪酬激励和高管流动率,揭示了公司为顺利执行人才引进政策,可能通过弱化激励机制来安抚老员工,导致公司在薪酬治理方面存在局部的效率损失。本文验证了地方人才引进政策的实施效果,揭示了该政策影响公司行为的作用机制,为政策后续执行提供了一定参考。     

美国服务业财税政策及借鉴

美国现行服务业财税政策促进了其服务业的发展。本文在研究美国服务业财税政策的基础上,分析了当前我国服务业财税政策方面存在的问题,并提出了促进我国服务业发展的财税政策和措施。     

Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies—Evidence from Four Inflation Targeting Economies

We examine the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies in the Asia‐Pacific region, where many inflation targeting economies have adopted macroprudential policies in order to safeguard financial stability. Using structural panel vector autoregressions that identify both monetary and macroprudential policy actions, we show that tighter macroprudential policies used to contain credit growth also have a significant negative impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as real GDP and the price level. The similar effects of monetary and macroprudential policies may suggest a complementary use of the two policies at normal times. However, they could also create challenges for policymakers, especially during times when low inflation coincides with buoyant credit growth.