The securitization of gold and its potential impact on gold stocks

We study the market impact of a very successful financial innovation – the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund (GLD). GLD holds physical gold, and provides traders with a convenient and cost-effective way to gain exposure to gold. We find that after the introduction of GLD, the liquidity of gold company stocks declined, and their adverse-selection risk increased. Over the two-month period after GLD’s introduction, the stocks’ relative effective bid-ask spreads increased by over 15%, while their adverse-selection cost, as measured by the price impact of trades, went up by more than 30%. Gold stocks also experienced significant negative abnormal returns (−12% on average) in the month after GLD started trading. Our findings suggest that GLD attracted traders, especially uninformed traders, away from gold company stocks, and that the resulting negative demand shocks and decrease in the stocks’ liquidity caused their prices to decline. Our results show that existing securities can be seriously adversely affected when a new security enters the market.     

Option market making under inventory risk

We propose a mean-variance framework to analyze the optimal quoting policy of an option market maker. The market maker’s profits come from the bid-ask spreads received over the course of a trading day, while the risk comes from uncertainty in the value of his portfolio, or inventory. Within this framework, we study the impact of liquidity and market incompleteness on the optimal bid and ask prices of the option. First, we consider a market maker in a complete market, where continuous trading in a perfectly liquid underlying stock is allowed. In this setting, the market maker may remove all risk by Delta hedging, and the optimal quotes will depend on the option’s liquidity, but not on the inventory. Second, we model a market maker who may not trade continuously in the underlying stock, but rather sets bid and ask quotes in the option and this illiquid stock. We find that the optimal stock and option quotes depend on the relative liquidity of both instruments as well as on the net Delta of the inventory. Third, we consider an incomplete market with residual risks due to stochastic volatility and large overnight moves in the stock price. In this setting, the optimal quotes depend on the liquidity of the option and on the net Vega and Gamma of the inventory.      

Dealer Markets Under Stress: The Performance of NASDAQ Market Makers During the November 15, 1991, Market Break

The liquidity of the NASDAQ market was seriously undermined during the crash on October 19, 1987, when bid-ask spreads widened dramatically and dealers reputedly withdrew from market making. This paper studies the liquidity of 36 NASDAQ issues on November 15, 1991, when average prices fell over 4%, representing the first major correction in the post-crash era. We find that bid-ask spreads, the percentage of dealers posting inside quotes, and trading volume remained virtually unaffected. Effective spreads were also largely unaffected, except for trades in excess of 1,000 shares among issues whose market makers avoided odd-eighth quotes. Our evidence implies that, unlike October 1987, the liquidity of the NASDAQ market did not deteriorate appreciably during this episode of unusual market stress.     

Price dispersion in OTC markets: A new measure of liquidity

In this paper, we model price dispersion effects in over-the-counter (OTC) markets to show that, in the presence of inventory risk for dealers and search costs for investors, traded prices may deviate from the expected market valuation of an asset. We interpret this deviation as a liquidity effect and develop a new liquidity measure quantifying the price dispersion in the context of the US corporate bond market. This market offers a unique opportunity to study liquidity effects since, from October 2004 onwards, all OTC transactions in this market have to be reported to a common database known as the Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE). Furthermore, market-wide average price quotes are available from Markit Group Limited, a financial information provider. Thus, it is possible, for the first time, to directly observe deviations between transaction prices and the expected market valuation of securities. We quantify and analyze our new liquidity measure for this market and find significant price dispersion effects that cannot be simply captured by bid-ask spreads. We show that our new measure is indeed related to liquidity by regressing it on commonly-used liquidity proxies and find a strong relation between our proposed liquidity measure and bond characteristics, as well as trading activity variables. Furthermore, we evaluate the reliability of end-of-day marks that traders use to value their positions. Our evidence suggests that the price deviations from expected market valuations are significantly larger and more volatile than previously assumed. Overall, the results presented here improve our understanding of the drivers of liquidity and are important for many applications in OTC markets, in general.     

Trading and Liquidity on the Tokyo Stock Exchange: A Bird's Eye View

The trading mechanism for equities on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) stands in sharp contrast to the primary mechanisms used to trade stocks in the United States. In the United States, exchange-designated specialists have affirmative obligations to provide continuous liquidity to the market. Specialists offer simultaneous and tight quotes to both buy and sell and supply sufficient liquidity to limit the magnitude of price changes between consecutive transactions. In contradistinction, the TSE has no exchange-designated liquidity suppliers. Instead, liquidity is provided through a public limit order book, and liquidity is organized through restrictions on maximum price changes between trades that serve to slow down trading. In this article, we examine the efficacy of the TSE's trading mechanisms at providing liquidity. Our analysis is based on a complete record of transactions and best-bid and best-offer quotes for most stocks in the First Section of the TSE over a period of 26 months. We study the size of the bid-ask spread and its cross-sectional and intertemporal stability; intertemporal patterns in returns, volatility, volume, trade size, and the frequency of trades; and market depth based on the response of quotes to trades and the frequency of trading halts and warning quotes.     

Trade Disclosure,Information Learning and Securities Market Performance

In this paper we examine the effect of information disclosure on securities market performance when liquidity traders are able to acquire information about inside trading. We show that the bid-ask spread increases with the liquidity trader's learning efficiency, which is greater when trade information is disclosed. The bid-ask spread is always higher when trade information is not disclosed. However, the discrepancy between the bid-ask spreads with and without information disclosure narrows when the learning efficiency increases. We also show that the gains of the informed traders in a market without trade information disclosure are reduced in the presence of the liquidity trader's learning. Nevertheless, liquidity traders do not necessarily benefit from increased transparency. In particular, liquidity traders may face higher trading costs.     

Market transparency: who wins and who loses?

This study uses laboratory experiments to determine the effectsof trade and quote disclosure on market efficiency, bid-askspreads, and trader welfare. We show that trade disclosure increasesthe informational efficiency of transaction prices, but alsoincreases opening bid-ask spreads, apparently by reducing market-makers'incentives to compete for order flow. As a result, trade disclosurebenefits market makers at the expense of liquidity traders andinformed traders. We find that quote disclosure has no discernibleeffects on market performance. Overall our results demonstratethat the degree of market transparency has important effectsof market equilibria and on trader and market-maker welfare.     

Endogenous informed trading in the presence of trading costs: Theory and evidence

The basic premise of the model we propose is that market frictions (trading costs) force traders with market-wide information to strategically choose which securities to trade in. We study the effect of recognizing trading costs on the choices of informed traders and the resulting statistical properties of security prices. Specifically, we show that (1) stocks with intermediate β's have the least informative prices, even though they are traded by the greatest number of informed traders; (2) for high β securities, the contemporaneous correlation of prices is close to the correlation in fundamental values; (3) a security with a higher β, higher volume of liquidity trading and lower idiosyncratic variance is more likely to lead another security. With market capitalization as a proxy for the level of liquidity trading, these specific predictions of the model on the lead–lag relationship are also shown to be strongly supported by the data.     

Funding liquidity shocks in a quasi-experiment: Evidence from the CDS Big Bang

We use the advent of new credit default swap (CDS) trading conventions in April 2009—the CDS Big Bang—to study how a shock to funding liquidity impacts market liquidity. After the Big Bang, traders are required to pay upfront fees to execute CDS transactions, with the size of the fees depending on the level of CDS spreads. While CDS bid-ask spreads decline in aggregate after the Big Bang, they do so less for contracts that require larger fees. Furthermore, the funding effect is stronger for smaller and riskier firms and for noncentrally cleared contracts. The effect also becomes stronger after Deutsche Bank's exit.     

Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others

We analyze a multi-period model of trading with differentially informed traders, liquidity traders, and a market maker. Each informed trader's initial information is a noisy estimate of the long-term value of the asset, and the different signals received by informed traders can have a variety of correlation structures. With this setup, informed traders not only compete with each other for trading profits, they also learn about other traders' signals from the observed order flow. Our work suggests that the initial correlation among the informed traders' signals has a significant effect on the informed traders' profits and the informativeness of prices.     

Order Flow and Liquidity around NYSE Trading Halts

We study order flow and liquidity around NYSE trading halts. We find that market and limit order submissions and cancellations increase significantly during trading halts, that a large proportion of the limit order book at the reopen is composed of orders submitted during the halt, and that the market-clearing price at the reopen is a good predictor of future prices. Depth near the quotes is unusually low around trading halts, though specialists and/or floor traders appear to provide additional liquidity at these times. Finally, specialists appear to 'spread the quote' prior to imbalance halts to convey information to market participants.     

The economic benefits of FASB's recommended disclosures: Evidence from the pharmaceutical industry

Prior research has documented an association between disclosure quality and various economic benefits, most notably between the cost of equity capital and market liquidity. We extend this literature by investigating whether pharmaceutical firms that comply with recommended voluntary disclosures of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) exhibit lower bid-ask spreads, greater market depth, and lower cost of equity capital. Cross-sectional analysis using pharmaceutical firms reveals a negative association between disclosure quality and bid-ask spreads (both the total spread and its adverse-selection component), but no association between disclosure quality and either market depth or the ex ante cost of equity capital. Overall, our findings provide some evidence of benefits accruing to pharmaceutical firms that comply with the FASB's recommended voluntary disclosures under the assumption that lower bid-ask spreads reduce the cost of capital and strong evidence that complying with FASB's recommended disclosures provide a direct benefit to small investors, those who bear the entire weight of bid-ask spreads.     

PERFORMANCE OF STOLL's SPREAD COMPONENT ESTIMATOR: EVIDENCE FROM SIMULATIONS,TIME-SERIES,AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA

Stoll (1989) introduces an intuitive procedure to estimate the basic components of the bid-ask spread (order-processing cost, inventory cost, and adverse-selection cost). He also provides reasonable estimates of the magnitudes of the order-processing, inventory, and adverse-selection costs of making markets for a large cross-section of NASDAQ/NMS stocks. Empirical applications of Stoll's model produce widely different estimates of the bid-ask spread components. We derive the sampling properties of Stoll's estimator of the realized bid-ask spread, i.e., the sum of the order-processing and inventory components. We test Stoll's model in simulations, using the ideal conditions implied by the model. We conclude that noise in serial covariance estimates causes estimates of the realized spread to be severely biased and highly unreliable in short time-series and small cross-sectional samples.     

A microstructure examination of trading activity following stock splits

In a study of 1,131 stock splits spanning the period 1983–1989 we observe an increase in the number of trades as well as a reduction in the mean trade size following the split. Combined with earlier reported findings of an increase in the number of shareholders postsplit, we conclude that the number of liquidity traders increases after a split. We confirm the previously observed increase in the bid-ask spread following a split, and upon decomposition of the spread find an increase in its adverse selection component in the postsplit period. This is consistent with the finding by Brennan and Hughes (1991) of an increase in the number of analysts following a stock after a split. Further, observing a decrease in market depth following a split we determine that Kyle-type models incorporating diverse private information for informed traders most correctly describe the nature of security trading. Since this decrease in postsplit market depth is not related to the trading volume or the split factor, we reject price correction explanations for stock splits.     

Dealer Bid-Ask Quotes and Transaction Prices: An Empirical Study of Some AMEX Options

This paper, utilizing dealer's “trading book” information, presents some empirical evidence supporting the validity of a dealer pricing model. It shows that much of the transaction prices variation may be explained by the specialist's optimal determination of his bid and ask quotes. Furthermore, it demonstrates that the dealer's bid-ask spread is an important explanatory variable in the observed transaction return. Finally, it indicates that the dealer's inventory level may affect his quotes and thus the transaction prices and order arrivals. The paper provides insights into the relationship between transaction prices and equilibrium prices, which will permit more extensive use of transaction data in empirical investigations. It also provides a better understanding of optimal dealer pricing strategies, suggesting that the proposed empirical model may be used to evaluate a dealer's trading performance.     

VOLATILITY AND LIQUIDITY AT NYSE OPENING CALLS: A CLOSER LOOK

The literature suggests that the bid-ask spread is responsible, at least in part, for greater price volatility and more negative autocorrelation at the open than at the close. In this study, we find that these phenomena are not related to the bid-ask spread, but are related instead to pricing errors by specialists or limit-order traders around the open. We use George, Kaul, and Nimalendran's (1991) model, which is less biased than Roll's (1984) model, to estimate the implied spread. The results show that, on average, the implied spread earned by liquidity suppliers is lower at the open than at the close. These results refute the contention that specialists exploit their monopoly position and earn a higher profit at the opening call. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that specialists set a lower cost of immediacy to encourage trading and the release of more information at the opening call. This could reduce information asymmetry and make subsequent trades in the continuous market more profitable.     

Liquidity Provision and Noise Trading: Evidence from the "Investment Dartboard" Column

How does increased noise trading affect market liquidity and trading costs? We use The Wall Street Journal's “Investment Dartboard” column, which stimulates noise trading, as a natural experiment to evaluate models of the bid-ask spread. We find that substantial increases in trading volume and significant but temporary abnormal returns occur when analysts recommend stocks in this column, especially when recommendations come from analysts with successful contest track records. We also find an increase in liquidity and a decrease in the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread.     

Market microstructure of the Pink Sheets

We study the microstructure of the Pink Sheets and assess the ability of existing theory to capture salient features of this relatively unstructured and unregulated market. Clustering patterns in quotes, quoted spreads, and trade prices indicate that market participants have selected price-dependent tick sizes for different stocks. Clustering intensity varies across stocks as a function of proxies for information availability. Similarly, the bid-ask spread varies as a function of volatility and liquidity. These results suggest (1) microstructure research has established robust predictions of market attributes and (2) unstructured markets are able to develop at least some effective behavioral norms endogenously.     

Liquidity of the CBOE Equity Options

We examine the CBOE option market depth and bid-ask spreads. Absence of price effects surrounding large option trades suggests excellent market depth. However, bid-ask spreads for the CBOE options and the NYSE stocks are nearly equal, even though an average option is equivalent to less than half a stock plus borrowing. We explain this tradeoff between market depth and bid-ask spreads on the CBOE and the NYSE by differences in market mechanisms. We also show that the adverse-selection component of the option spread, which measures the extent of information-related trading on the CBOE, is very small.     

The optimal bid-ask price strategies of high-frequency trading and the effect on market liquidity

We propose a model for determining the optimal bid-ask spread strategy by a high-frequency trader (HFT) who has an informational advantage and receives information about the true value of a security. We employ an information cost function that includes volatility and the volume of the asset. Subsequently, we characterize the optimal bid-ask price strategies and obtain a stable bid-ask spread. We assume that orders submitted by low-frequency traders (LFTs) and news events arrive at the market with Poisson processes. Additionally, our model supports the trading of the two-sided quote in one period. We find that more LFTs and a higher exchange latency both hurt market liquidity. The HFT prefers to choose a two-sided quote to gain more profits while cautiously chooses a one-sided quote during times of high volatility. The model generates some testable implications with supporting empirical evidence from the NASDAQ-OMX Nordic Market.