各国金融开放效应差异的金融发展视角——基于经济增长效应和金融风险效应的分析

发达国家和发展中国家在金融深度、金融体系完善程度、金融效率等方面都存在着巨大差异,因此从金融发展视角思考两者金融开放效应的差异具有重要意义.东道国发达的金融市场和金融部门能更好利用外来资本、充分吸收流入资本溢出效应、降低开放后经济增长波动及吸引更多国际资本流入,而其金融体系不发达又将降低开放后金融系统抗风险的能力,本国金融业落后与资本外流、流入资本结构不合理等隐患也有重要关联,另外金融监管不力会导致金融开放后银行和货币危机的高发.     

金融全球化与发展中国家的金融风险

金融全球化在推动经济增长的同时,也增加了金融体系的风险性,发展中国家由于其金融体系的脆弱性,其遭受打击程度要比发达国家严重得多。当今世界金融失衡的传递效应很显著,金融危机可以通过货币、资本、央行政策以及心理预期等因素进行传递。发展中国家由于金融体系的脆弱性,更成为金融危机的最大受害者。所以,加强监管,应该成为我们面对金融全球化的首要任务。     

金融开放视角下宏观经济波动问题研究——以东亚国家(地区)为例

20世纪80年代以来,东亚地区金融市场的开放推动了资本在国际间的大规模流动,大量的国际资本在促进东亚经济增长的同时,也埋下了经济波动的隐患。结合东亚经济体的实际特点,本文采用Aghion等(2004)提出的动态开放经济模型来分析金融开放对东亚不同类型国家(地区)经济波动的影响,并利用东亚国家(地区)的面板数据对模型的结论进行实证检验。研究发现,由于国内金融体系发展程度的差异,金融开放对于东亚不同类型经济体产生的影响不同,金融开放缓解了东亚发达经济体的经济波动,但加剧了发展中国家的经济波动。随着金融开放程度的不断提高,东亚的发展中国家要加快推进国内的金融体系建设,以降低国际资本流动对宏观经济稳定的冲击。     

金融开放视角下宏观经济波动问题研究——以东亚国家(地区)为例北大核心CSSCISSCI

20世纪80年代以来,东亚地区金融市场的开放推动了资本在国际间的大规模流动,大量的国际资本在促进东亚经济增长的同时,也埋下了经济波动的隐患。结合东亚经济体的实际特点,本文采用Aghion等(2004)提出的动态开放经济模型来分析金融开放对东亚不同类型国家(地区)经济波动的影响,并利用东亚国家(地区)的面板数据对模型的结论进行实证检验。研究发现,由于国内金融体系发展程度的差异,金融开放对于东亚不同类型经济体产生的影响不同,金融开放缓解了东亚发达经济体的经济波动,但加剧了发展中国家的经济波动。随着金融开放程度的不断提高,东亚的发展中国家要加快推进国内的金融体系建设,以降低国际资本流动对宏观经济稳定的冲击。     

发展中国家银行业开放模式比较

在《服务贸易总协定》框架下，如何确定国内银行业的开放战略，保持金融体系的效率与稳定，是发展中国家面临的现实问题。各发展中国家在开放过程中，对于涉及到资本账户开放的贸易模式开放相对谨慎，而对于以商业存在的贸易模式开放则最为积极。     

我国金融监管体系改革趋向探析

观新世纪以来国际金融领域内的发展趋向,混业经营在西方诸国金融业内逐渐占据主流地位。在此类变化趋势的影响作用下,大多发达国家选择混业监管模式以防控潜在的金融风险,部分发展中国家在金融全球化之压力亦步亦趋,存有类似的改革倾向。国内学者就我国金融业在对外开放与国际接轨的过程中,适应国际金融业混业经营趋势已成理之必然这一观点,已达成共识。我国当据国内具体发展情形,同时借鉴相关发达国家金融监管变革之经验,逐步对金融监管模式做出相应调整,并构建和完善与之相配套的具体操作制度,以维系国内金融体系之安全稳定,促进金融业之开放繁荣。     

金融开放与经济增长:基于发达国家与发展中国家的实证分析

本文利用金融开放度指标,从影响路径的角度解释了金融开放对经济增长的效应。对于发达国家而言,通货膨胀的水平与经济发展水平适宜,从而刺激经济增长;对于发展中国家而言,通货膨胀对经济增长的正向效应不显著,外资流入可能更倾向于进行投资和投机活动,而不投向实体产业。金融开放是否有利于一个经济体的增长,要取决于经济体的初始条件以及综合环境,发达国家比发展中国家更容易享受金融开放带来的正向效应。     

金融资产结构的国际比较及其启示

该文以美英德日四国公布的资金流量表为基础，全面分析了主要发达国家金融资产的总量、金融工具结构和部门结构变化。整体而言，发达国家金融资产规模的增长速度快于经济增长速度，传统的市场主导型金融体系和银行主导型金融体系在竞争中正相互融合。从发展趋势看，金融资产总量增长促进了经济增长，金融工具的创新与多元化提高了金融效率并促进了经济增长，但是，金融工具的发展不能脱离实体经济的正常轨道，经济部门的金融资产和金融负债之间的风险应合理搭配。     

农业政策性金融发展的借鉴与思考

本文主要研究政府设立政策性金融机构以支持农业发展的问题。研究对象涉及发达国家与发展中国家农业政策性金融机构、我国农业政策性金融体系、农业发展银行等。通过对其他国家农业政策性金融机构实践经验的总结,来指导我国农业政策性金融的改革发展。     

发展中国家的金融体系问题研究:基于法律制度的视角

与发达国家相比,发展中国家的金融体系存在巨大的缺陷,但是发展中国家的金融体系发展程度也是不同的。为了提高发展中国家的金融体系效率,我们需要找出影响发展中国家金融体系效率背后的其他因素,比如在殖民统治期间形成现在仍有国家在遵守的法律制度。本文通过分组的t检验分析发现,法律制度是一个影响金融体系效率的关键因素。     

金融支持服务贸易的理论分析与对策研究

服务贸易作为经济发展的动力和引擎,对于转变我国经济发展和对外贸易增长方式具有重大战略意义,但由于缺乏足够的金融支持,我国服务贸易整体水平还处于比较落后的状态。本文将从产业结构调整理论和国家竞争优势理论的视角分析对服务贸易进行金融支持的必要性,并提出构建我国服务贸易多元化金融支持体系的对策建议。     

Openness and Financial Development in China: The Political Economy of Financial Resources Distribution

This paper examines the impact of openness on financial development in China. We use two sets of indicators of financial development to distinguish size and efficiency for both bank and capital market sectors as aspects of financial development in 30 provinces of China over the period from 2000 to 2009. The empirical results suggest that trade and financial openness exert positive impact on financial efficiency but negative impact on the size of financial development for both the indirect and direct financial sectors. The results confirm a mismatch problem between the distribution in the types of trading companies and the allocation of financial resources in China.     

Understanding bilateral exchange rate risks

We apply the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model to weekly bilateral exchange rate returns of 31 countries and examine the determinants of bilateral exchange rate risks over the period 2001–2013. Consistent with the balance sheet effects in the open economy literature, we find that bilateral exchange rate risks are significantly reduced by external financial liabilities, above and beyond the standard optimal currency area (OCA) factors, and the development of domestic financial sectors will attenuate this effect. Subsample analysis reveals that developed countries also face credit constraints in the global capital market and the negative effects of external liabilities on bilateral exchange rate risks are increasingly pronounced in countries facing more credit constraints.     

Institutional structures of financial sector supervision,their drivers and historical benchmarks

This paper studies institutional structures of prudential and business conduct supervision of financial services in 98 high and middle income countries over the past decade. It identifies possible drivers of changes in these supervisory structures using the panel ordered probit analysis. The results show that (i) more developed, small open economies with better public governance tend to integrate their supervision, especially the prudential one; (ii) more financially developed countries integrate more their supervision; however, greater development of the non-bank financial system leads to less integrated prudential supervision but not business conduct supervision; (iii) the lobbying power of concentrated and highly profitable banking sectors significant hinders business conduct integration; (vi) countries that experienced financial crises integrate their supervisory structure relatively more and (v) greater central bank independence could cause less integration of prudential supervision, but not necessarily of business conduct supervision.     

Openness, profit opportunities and foreign banking

Using new data from the World Bank and OCC surveys, we show correlations across a wide range of countries between foreign banking and domestic economic, financial and bank regulatory conditions. Foreign banking tended to be more prevalent in countries that were more open to foreign ownership of their banks, more open to banks’ engaging in a wider range of financial activities and more open to international trade. Restrictions on foreign ownership of domestic banks that were in place in the late 1970s reduced the current extent of foreign banking. Foreign banking was negatively correlated with current restrictions on banks’ securities, insurance and real estate activities. Countries that had more international trade tended to have more foreign banking. Foreign banking was more pervasive in countries where banking was more profitable and where the domestically-owned banking sector was smaller relative to GDP.     

人民币国际化与对外投资的内源机制研究

人民币国际化是市场选择的结果,它一般要经历贸易结算功能的国际化、金融交易职能的国际化和价值储备职能的国际化三个阶段。影响人民币国际化进程的主要经济因素归结为四个方面：中国出口贸易规模占全球比重、对外投资额所占全球的比重、金融市场的发达与开放度才及人民币币值的稳定性。人民币的国际化有利于中国对外投资的深入推进,同时中国对外投资的发展能够促进人民币国际化的进程,二者相互影响,相互促进。从对外投资的视角看,为了加快人民币国际化的进程,我国应该在对外投资区域、投资产业及投资方式作出重大的战略调整。     

金融发展、汇率变动与中国省区制造业出口

本文使用中国省区细分行业的数据和一系列反映金融发展的指标,检验了金融发展对于中国省区制造业出口的影响,同时观测了汇率变动对于各省区行业出口绩效的影响。在控制了各省区要素禀赋以及基础设施条件后发现,在金融发展水平高的省份,高融资依赖性的行业具有较高的出口份额。此外,金融发展有利于融资依赖性行业抵御外部汇率冲击带来的负面影响,扩大市场份额。在选取工具变量以及采取IVTobit模型克服模型的内生性后,结果依然稳健。     

Foreign banks and trade

Exploiting unique, time-varying, bilateral data on bank ownership for many countries, we show that exports tend to be larger when a foreign bank from the importing country is present. Entry of a foreign bank also boosts export growth to the home country of the foreign bank relative to other countries, especially when foreign bank presence in the country is large and bilateral cross-border lending low. We find supportive evidence that foreign banks facilitate trade by reducing financial frictions for firms. Entry spurs exports to the foreign bank's home country especially in sectors more dependent on external finance, and particularly so in countries less economically and financially developed and with a higher share of foreign banks. Imports of external finance dependent sectors also grow more after entry, but less so than exports do. Exit of a foreign bank does not fully eliminate the beneficial effects of prior foreign bank presence on exports.     

构建可持续发展的金融基建——专访香港金融管理局助理总裁李建英

一直以来,香港特别行政区以其国际金融中心的地位而备受全球瞩目。近年来,随着香港与内地经贸投资往来的日益密切,香港金融基础设施建设(金融基建)进程快速推进,两岸金融行业产能呈现快速增长态势。金融基建工作已经成为支持香港金融业务发展的"基础助推器"。近日,记者就香港金融基建的发展情况及未来愿景等问题独家专访了香港金融管理局助理总裁李建英。     

Financial Architecture and Economic Performance: International Evidence

The paper examines the relation between the architecture of an economy's financial system—its degree of market orientation—and economic performance in the real sector. I find that while market-based systems outperform bank-based systems among countries with developed financial sectors, bank-based systems fare better among countries with underdeveloped financial sectors. Countries dominated by small firms grow faster in bank-based systems and those dominated by larger firms in market-based systems. The findings suggest that recent trends in financial development policies that indiscriminately prescribe market-oriented financial-system architecture to emerging and transition economies might be misguided because suitable financial architecture, in and of itself, could be a source of value. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G1, G21, O1, 04.