中国违约风险溢酬研究

违约风险的存在会对公司债券等固定收益证券的定价产生影响。在不存在违约风险的情况下，标的资产的价格直接按照无风险利率进行贴现；在存在违约风险时，必须考虑违约风险。     

我国国债利率期限结构实证研究

一、前言 利率是因为出让货币资金在一定时期内的使用权而给货币资金所有者的报酬,它实质上是资金的价格,反映了资金供求关系.利率是金融领域的一个核心概念,它被广泛地应用于固定收益证券的定价以及分析中.利率期限结构是指在相同的风险水平下,不同到期期限的利率与到期期限之间的关系.由于无风险债券没有违约风险,也就没有信用风险溢酬,其价格只与市场利率水平有关,因此从横截面的角度看,利率期限结构可以用一条无风险债券的收益率曲线来表示.     

基于套利理论与ICIR模型的债券市场发行定价偏离研究

基于套利定价理论与利率期限结构理论,运用Tobit多元线性回归模型,得出债券发行定价的主要影响因素为债券无风险利率、债券期限溢价、债项信用评级、债券主体信用评级和债券赎回风险溢价,在此基础上再通过改进的CIR定价模型(ICIR)对2006～2010年各债券定价偏离现象进行研究的结果表明,在1%的显著性水平上,ICIR模型测算的债券理论价格通过了二级市场的定价检验,ICIR模型对债券发行定价偏离进行检验具有较强的合理性;同时,从发行年份来看,近五年来,债券定价偏离总体呈逐年下降趋势,债券发行定价与ICIR定价与二级市场定价逐步接轨,市场化程度越来越高。     

SHIBOR在我国基准利率体系中的地位及其完善渠道研究

本文从基准利率体系的市场代表性、定价基础性、波动合理性、政策可控性和经济相关性五个基本属性出发,对我国基准利率体系的现状,特别是SHIBOR在其中的地位,进行了较为全面的评估。评估结果表明,现阶段SHIBOR、同业拆借利率和债券回购利率都无法单独承担货币市场基准利率的重任。货币市场实际的基准利率是由管制利率和市场利率混合组成的:SHIBOR、债券回购利率,构成了基准利率短端的核心;而同业拆借利率和存贷款管制利率则构成了基准利率的长端。在不同期限的基准利率中,1周的SHIBOR和2周的债券回购利率最有可能成为央行调控的目标基准利率。其中,1周的SHIBOR虽然政策可控性和经济相关性较强,但报价的非理性程度较高;而2周的债券回购利率虽然报价理性较强,但可控性和相关性都很差。     

银行间市场基准利率体系选择及Shibor运行分析——兼析基准利率变动对商业银行的影响

本文剖析目前债券市场各种具有部分基准利率属性的利率并对其特征进行比较,探讨可以作为基准利率的可能标准,并研判Shibor作为基准利率仍需改进的方向.本文认为,由于受行政干预,传统的商业银行1年期存贷款利率现阶段不适宜充当基准利率;下一步基准利率体系的建设将以Shibor利率和国债二级市场收益率为核心,构建接近无风险的基准利率体系.本文主要结论:一是商业银行应利用基准利率体系改变资卉负债业务定价策略,增强商业银行资金定价能力;二是应利用基准利率曲线增强商业银行对固定收益衍生产品的估值水平;三是商业银行应利用基准利率体系加强债券利率风险管理和债券投资组合管理.     

基于双因素Wang转换方法的长寿风险债券定价研究

在比较国外经典债券设计的基础上,基于离散型死亡率模型假设,设计一种可调整上触碰点的触发型长寿债券,运用带永久跳跃的APC模型和双因素Wang转换定价方法对长寿债券进行定价,实证结果表明:在不同的参数组合下的风险溢价均处在一个合理的范围,由于模型参数多、可用死亡率数据年限短,风险溢价的结果对无风险利率等参数敏感性较高.     

优先级债券与次级债券风险溢价差的理论分析——基于期权定价理论的应用

国内运用期权定价理论分析债券的定价主要集中于对可转换债券、单一零息票债券和违约风险债券的定价分析,但对于同时发行优先级债券和次级债券二者的收益率差研究较少。在国外已有的次级债券期权定价方法和结论基础上,文章具体论证出次级债券相对于无风险国债的风险溢价与发行主体资产价值之间呈非单调关系的结论,并得到次级债券与优先级债券收益率差的定价公式。     

企业债券风险估值与简化式方法

信用风险、利率风险和流动性风险是债券投资者面临的最严峻的风险,对这几种风险的精确估计是债券定价的合理依据和债券投资者有效风险管理的前提.本文介绍一种风险估值的模型--简化式方法,并探讨它在债券定价、信用风险、流动性风险以及违约损失率估计中的应用.     

我国金融市场基准利率考察——基于构建完整的基准收益率曲线

基于构建完整的基准收益率曲线,基准利率（载体）应至少符合无风险性、规模充足性、流动性、数据可得性和期限结构完整性等特征标准。根据这些标准对我国金融市场基准利率进行考察,结果表明,当前国债利率、政策性金融债利率、央行票据利率、银行间回购定盘利率和SHIBOR可以用作不同期限的基准利率。一条完整的基准收益率曲线可以用这五种利率进行有效组合。但从长远来看,国债收益率曲线取得惟一基准收益率曲线的地位是大势所趋。     

基于现金流的信用违约互换定价及论证分析

为了研究信用违约互换(CDS)的价格,本文在现金流分析法的基础上提出了信用违约互换(CDS)定价的。首先,分析了保护购买方定期支付的预期保费、保护买需要支付给保护购买方的赔偿额;然后,在对两个部分进行分析,建立所需模型;最后,对该定价模型进行论证分析,分别研究无风险下的利率、合同的有效期以及信用评级这三方面对信用违约互换(CDS)定价的影响。     

Exploring the components of credit risk in credit default swaps

In this paper, we test the influence of various fundamental variables on the pricing of credit default swaps. The theoretical determinants that are important for pricing credit default swaps include the risk-free rate, industry sector, credit rating, and liquidity factors. We suggest a linear regression model containing these different variables, especially focusing on liquidity factors. Unlike bond spreads which have been shown to be inversely related to liquidity (i.e., the greater the liquidity, the lower the spread), there is no a priori reason that the credit default swap spread should exhibit the same relationship. This is due to the economic characteristics of a credit default swap compared to a bond. Our empirical result shows that all the fundamental variables investigated have a significant effect on the credit default swap spread. Moreover, our findings suggest that credit default swaps that trade with greater liquidity have a wider credit default swap spread.     

Credit ratings and convertible bond prices: a simulation-based valuation

This study presents a simulation-based model of convertible bond prices under the assumption of stochastic interest rates. The model is developed such that the convertible bond price explicitly depends on the credit rating at the time of issuance. Key ideas explored in this study include terminating the simulated sample path immediately when the issuer defaults on the bond at time t, which is the same as the investor and the issuer optimally exercising their options and discounting the resulting cash flows at a risk-free rate. In turn, the defaulted group of sample paths belongs to the bottom xth percentile of the realized stock prices at each time, which is exogenously given by the cumulative or marginal default probability of a firm that has the same rating as the issuer. Upon calibrating the model, we can see that the moneyness of convertible bonds is strongly responsible for influencing the convertible bond price when the rating changes. Furthermore, the effects of stochastic interest rates are shown to be possibly significant when the interest rate risk’s market price is not zero.     

Financial statement comparability and credit risk

Prior research shows that firms’ financial statement comparability improves the accuracy of market participants’ valuation judgments and thus may reduce firms’ costs of capital. Distinct from prior research focusing on the equity market, we develop measures of comparability relevant to debt market participants based on the within-industry variability of Moody’s adjustments to reported accounting numbers for the purposes of credit rating. We examine two sets of adjustments: (1) to the interest coverage ratio and (2) to non-recurring income items. We validate these comparability measures by providing evidence that greater comparability is associated with lower frequency and magnitude of split ratings by credit rating agencies. We predict and find that greater comparability is associated with (1) lower estimated bid-ask spreads for traded bonds, (2) lower credit spreads for both bonds and five-year credit default swaps, and (3) a steeper one- to five-year credit default swap term structure. Our results are consistent with financial statement comparability reducing debt market participants’ uncertainty about and pricing of firms’ credit risk.     

Measuring Credit Risk of Individual Corporate Bonds in US Energy Sector

In this paper, using the measures of the credit risk price spread (CRiPS) and the standardized credit risk price spread (S-CRiPS) proposed in Kariya’s (A CB (corporate bond) pricing model for deriving default probabilities and recovery rates. Eaton, IMS Collection Series: Festschrift for Professor Morris L., 2013) corporate bond model, we make a comprehensive empirical credit risk analysis on individual corporate bonds (CBs) in the US energy sector, where cross-sectional CB and government bond price data is used with bond attributes. Applying the principal component analysis method to the S-CRiPSs, we also categorize individual CBs into three different groups and study on their characteristics of S-CRiPS fluctuations of each group in association with bond attributes. Secondly, using the market credit rating scheme proposed by Kariya et al. (2014), we make credit-homogeneous groups of CBs and show that our rating scheme is empirically very timely and useful. Thirdly, we derive term structures of default probabilities for each homogeneous group, which reflect the investors’ views and perspectives on the future default probabilities or likelihoods implicitly implied by the CB prices for each credit-homogeneous group. Throughout this paper it is observed that our credit risk models and the associated measures for individual CBs work effectively and can timely provide the market credit information evaluated by investors.     

Credit default swaps and the market for sovereign debt

In this paper, we analyze the determinants and effects of credit default swap (CDS) trading initiation in the sovereign bond market. CDS trading initiation is associated with a 30–150 basis point reduction in sovereign bond yields, with greater yield reductions accruing to higher default risk economies. For countries with high default risk, rated B or lower by Standard and Poor’s, CDS initiation is also associated with significant price efficiency benefits in the underlying market. CDS trading initiation is more likely following increases in local equity index volatility, index spreads for regional and global CDS markets, or depreciation of the local currency relative to the US dollar, and decreases in a country’s ability to service foreign debt. Our results are robust to selection bias controls based on these factors.     

The delivery option in credit default swaps

Under standard assumptions the reduced-form credit risk model is not capable of accurately pricing the two fundamental credit risk instruments – bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) – simultaneously. Using a data set of euro-denominated corporate bonds and CDS our paper quantifies this mispricing by calibrating such a model to bond data, and subsequently using it to price CDS, resulting in model CDS spreads up to 50% lower on average than observed in the market. An extended model is presented which includes the delivery option implicit in CDS contracts emerging since a basket of bonds is deliverable in default. By using a constant recovery rate standard models assume equal recoveries for all bonds and hence zero value for the delivery option. Contradicting this common assumption, case studies of Chapter 11 filings presented in the paper show that corporate bonds do not necessarily trade at equal levels following default. Our extension models the implied expected recovery rate of the cheapest-to-deliver bond and, applied to data, largely eliminates the mispricing. Calibrated recovery values lie between 8% and 47% for different obligors, exhibiting strong variation among rating classes and industries. A cross-sectional analysis reveals that the implied recovery parameter depends on proxies for the delivery option, primarily the number of available bonds and bond pricing errors. No evidence is found for a direct influence of the bid-ask spread, notional amount, coupon, or rating used as proxies for bond market liquidity.     

Pricing of swaps with default risk

In this paper, I study the valuation of interest rate and currency swaps with default risk under the contingent claim analysis framework. I demonstrate that the traditional approach of pricing swap contracts as exchanges of loans underestimates the value of such contracts to the counterparty with higher credit rating and exaggerates the credit spread required to guard against default risk. Numerical simulations show that the swap rate is not sensitive to counterparty credit rating: for a ten year interest rate swap, a one hundred basis point increase in counterparty bond yield spread results in only about one basis point increase in the swap rate. (JEL G10, G12, G13)This paper is based on Chapter 2 of my Ph.D. dissertation at Yale University. I would like to thank my dissertation committee, Kenneth French, Roger Ibbotson, and Jonathan Ingersoll, Jr. (chairman), for helpful advice and guidance. I would also like to thank Keny Back, Richard Lindsey, N. R. Prabhala, Ming Huang, Marti Subrahmanyam, three anonymous referees and especially Bob Jarrow, the editor, for helpful comments and suggestions. Any errors that remain are solely mine. This paper won the 1996 Trefftzs Award for best student paper from the Western Finance Association.     

The Risk Microstructure of Corporate Bonds: A Case Study from the German Corporate Bond Market

This article presents joint econometric analysis of interest rate risk, issuer‐specific risk (credit risk) and bond‐specific risk (liquidity risk) in a reduced‐form framework. We estimate issuer‐specific and bond‐specific risk from corporate bond data in the German market. We find that bond‐specific risk plays a crucial role in the pricing of corporate bonds. We observe substantial differences between different bonds with respect to the relative influence of issuer‐specific vs. bond‐specific spread on the level and the volatility of the total spread. Issuer‐specific risk exhibits strong autocorrelation and a strong impact of weekday effects, the level of the risk‐free term structure and the debt to value ratio. Moreover, we can observe some impact of the stock market volatility, the respective stock's return and the distance to default. For the bond‐specific risk we find strong autocorrelation, some impact of the stock market index, the stock market volatility, weekday effects and monthly effects as well as a very weak impact of the risk‐free term structure and the specific stock's return. Altogether, the determinants of the spread components vary strongly between different bonds/issuers.     

欧洲高收益债券市场违约风险监管研究

多年以来,欧洲一直是仅次于美国的世界第二大高收益债券市场。除了债券自身信用评级水平之外,欧洲高收益债券违约率的高低与市场监管力度以及宏观金融经济运行状况密切相关。欧洲监管当局把对高收益债券市场的监管重点放在:规范市场信息披露及信用评级标准和行为、保护投资者权益、保持交易行为的规范性和跨国界市场交易衔接处理等方面,这些监管策略的实施对控制市场违约风险起到了积极的作用。欧洲的监管经验对于今后我国高收益债券市场的尝试性推出也极具借鉴意义。     

Insider employee stock option trading and stock prices

The question of which factors determine corporate bonds pricing is investigated by analysing the spreads of eurobonds issued by major G-10 companies during the 1991–2001 period. Three main results emerge from the analysis. First, bond ratings appear as the most important determinant of yield spreads, with investors’ reliance on rating agencies judgments increasing over time. Second, the primary market efficiency and the expected secondary market liquidity are not relevant explanatory factors of spreads cross-sectional variability. Finally, rating agencies adopt a different, ‘through the cycle’, evaluation criteria of default risk with respect to the forward looking one adopted by bond investors.