首开股份：业绩持续高增长 战略优势初现

公司预增2010年业绩40％-45％,预期2010年归属于上市公司股东的净利润约在13亿元至13．5亿元之间,每股收益1．13—1．17元／股。预计一二级开发持续发力是公司业绩实现增长的主要原因,公司是少数的几个能够快速实现资源价值的资源型公司。在地产股的熊市,市场系统性不认可北京房价,系统性不认可北京土地资源的重估价值。然而恰是北京这样调控最严厉的城市,     

我国A股相对于H股溢价的实证分析——基于“壳价值”的解释

双重上市公司的股票价差之谜是学术界的重要课题。本文从内地和香港地区的上市退市制度差异导致的制度租金,即"壳价值"角度出发来解释A股相对于H股的溢价。运用固定效应模型,将2000年以来86家双重上市公司的面板数据进行实证检验。结果发现,壳价值对A-H溢价有较强的解释力,A股溢价部分来源于政府管制带来的上市资源稀缺,进而产生的制度租金。从绝对数值的历史表现来看,A股单个公司的壳价值平均约为30亿人民币。笔者测算结果显示,随着近年来A股发行制度市场化程度逐步提高,上市资格的稀缺性有所缓解,壳价值相应随之下降,但目前壳价值占A股总市值的比例仍高达14%。     

我国上市公司控制权私有收益计量方法研究

对公司资源的控制权所带来的控制权私有收益已成为现代公司治理研究的核心内容。因为我国上市公司所处的制度环境有其特殊性,这就使得对控制权私有收益进行度量时不能简单地套用国外的计量方法,而应根据我国的实际情况进行分析。本文在国内外学者的现有研究成果的基础上对各种计量方法进行比较分析,进而提出改进的控制权转让溢价法对我国上市公司控制权私有收益进行计量。     

聚类分析在固定资产价值重估中的应用

对于需依据国际会计准则对财务信息进行披露,且固定资产规模较大的我国海外上市公司,在对固定资产进行重估时有必要采取抽样的方法,抽取公司中部分企业全部固定资产进行价值重估借以推断公司整体固定资产的价值变化情况,以提高工作效率。与简单抽样相比,运用多目标抽样——聚类分析法,可提高抽样的准确度和样本的可靠性,增强整体推断结论的可信度。文中通过案例介绍聚类分析在固定资产价值重估中的应用,并指出该方法的应用前景。     

壳溢价:错误定价还是管制风险？

IPO审核制下,上市公司凭借稀缺的上市资源获得真实价值以外的壳价值。本文检验了上市公司壳价值含量(ESV/MV)与股票横截面收益的关系。在控制了规模、账面市值比、盈利、投资等特征后,我们发现壳价值含量与股票回报率显著正相关。根据ESV/MV构造的对冲组合在时间序列上存在无法被现有风险因子模型所解释的超额收益(壳溢价)。进一步检验表明,壳溢价来源于与管制政策相关的系统性风险而不是股票市场的错误定价。     

利用外资能提升公司价值吗?——基于上市公司的实证分析

本文以沪、深309家外资持股公司为样本,从公司治理的视角对利用外资与公司价值之间相关关系进行了实证研究,研究发现：(1)外资持股比例的分散化、外资金融机构持股对外资持股公司价值产生正向影响；(2)股权集中度与外资持股公司价值显著正相关；(3)财务杠杆对外资持股公司价值的负面影响在统计上的显著性并不稳定；(4)高管薪酬水平与外资持股公司价值显著正相关；(5)董事会的监督作用对绩效的正面效应在外资持股公司中并不显著。此外,我们还发现外资持股公司有三个倾向,一是外资持股公司信息披露水平普遍偏高,有“信息披露质量趋同倾向”；二是外资股东投资于规模越小的上市公司越有利于上市公司价值提升,越有利于分享中国经济增长带来的收益；三是外资股东愿意为非制造业上市公司付出一定溢价,对非制造业上市公司有投资偏好。因此,就上市公司层面而言,仅仅依靠吸引外资不足以成就中国“世界制造中心”的梦想。     

大股东收益对公司价值影响的研究——基于上市公司2005—2008年的经验数据

本文以我国2005—2008年存在控制性股权转让的69个上市公司为研究对象,从大股东对上市公司超控制权收益攫取的视角,研究了控制权成本补偿与超控制权收益的划分以及大股东收益对公司价值的影响。研究发现,在我国特殊的制度背景下,大股东在控制权转移过程中获取的控制权收益都是超控制权收益,其与公司价值之间存在明显的线性关系;我国存在控制性股权转移的上市公司的公司价值与现金流权比例正相关,与控制权比例不相关,与控制权和现金流权的分离度以及超控制权收益显著负相关,与公司规模、资产负债率等不相关。     

大股东收益对公司价值影响的研究——基于上市公司2005—2008年的经验数据

本文以我国2005—2008年存在控制性股权转让的69个上市公司为研究对象,从大股东对上市公司超控制权收益攫取的视角,研究了控制权成本补偿与超控制权收益的划分以及大股东收益对公司价值的影响。研究发现,在我国特殊的制度背景下,大股东在控制权转移过程中获取的控制权收益都是超控制权收益,其与公司价值之间存在明显的线性关系;我国存在控制性股权转移的上市公司的公司价值与现金流权比例正相关,与控制权比例不相关,与控制权和现金流权的分离度以及超控制权收益显著负相关,与公司规模、资产负债率等不相关。     

人力资本对股票收益的预测研究

迄今国内研究尚未系统剖析人力资本在资本市场中的价值，本文基于中国A股市场考察人力资本对股票市场的影响。通过回归和投资组合分析证实存在人力资本溢价，即人力资本水平越高的企业股票收益率越高，人力资本是影响股票收益的风险因子。从“风险传播”“价值增长”和“信息传递”三条渠道剖析人力资本溢价内在驱动机制，丰富了人力资本溢价理论解释机制。异质性分析发现：相比于非国有企业，国有企业中人力资本溢价更显著；融资约束和披露职工信息在人力资本溢价中发挥“促进作用”;经济政策不确定性在人力资本溢价中发挥“抑制作用”;劳动力市场规模越大越容易削弱人力资本对股票收益的影响。本文为投资者投资决策提供了新视角，为企业、国家重视人力资本贡献了股票市场诠释。     

政治背景对资源类上市公司企业价值的影响

本文以2011年资源类上市公司为研究样本,通过手工收集资源类上市公司控制人和高管的背景资料,描述了资源类上市公司的政治背景.研究发现,在短期内,资源类企业的政治背景对企业价值有显著的负面影响,有政治背景的资源类上市公司价值更低.本文意义在于为政府在短期内发挥“掠夺之手”的作用提供了证据.     

Uncovering the impacts of structural similarity of financial indicators on stock returns at different quantile levels

The mining industry is the upstream industry of national economic development. In recent years, the mining financial market has rapidly developed. Stock returns have always been a hot topic for investors and researchers. There are many factors affecting stock prices, such as market supply and demand, national policies and the price fluctuations of other financial products. The most essential factor affecting stock price fluctuation is the operating condition of the listed companies that issue shares. A series of financial indicators comprehensively and systematically reflect listed companies' current earnings and future development potential. However, there are few studies on the structure of financial indicators of listed mining companies. Therefore, we take listed mining companies as the research object to explore whether the structural similarity of their financial indicators can uncover their stock returns. The research findings are as follows: (1) The strength of the structural similarity of financial indicators has a significant negative impact on annual returns, so enterprise managers should adjust their business model and attach importance to personalized development. (2) Similar media capabilities have a negative impact on companies with high annual stock returns and a positive impact on companies with low annual stock returns. (3) The impact of similar cohesion on annual returns varies across different networks and it has a positive effect on the earnings of low-returning companies in operation network. A specific analysis should be carried out according to different financial indicator networks to diversify investment.     

股票增值权激励有效吗

股票增值权是上市公司对管理层实施激励的重要做法，在我国大型国有控股境外上市公司中普遍采用。本文以中国石化为研究对象，对实施股票增值权计划后的公司财务绩效、治理机制与管理层代理成本、股票市场反应等作了实证检验。本文认为，股票增值权计划对公司财务绩效提升、治理机制改善具有一定的积极正面效应；股票增值权在等待期结束后的开始行权年度激励效果最大；股票市场对股票增值权的行权存在着过度反应。最后本文提出了改进股票增值权激励的政策建议。     

地方政府财政行为在提升上市公司业绩中的作用探析

本文详细分析了地方政府材政行为在提升上市公司业绩中的动机、手段和作用,发现为了在资本市场中 资源,地方政府积极参与了上市公司的盈余管理,对上市企业进行了大面积的税收优惠和财政补贴,不仅导致了税务竞争现象,还极大地扭曲了会计信息,如果没有地方政府的财政支持,近一半的已配股公司会得不到配股资格。     

Estimating the Cost of Capital Using Stock Prices and Near‐term Earnings Forecasts

Earnings‐based valuation models, although long used by finance practitioners, have become increasingly popular among finance academics as well. Among the most important reasons for academics' increased acceptance of earnings‐based valuation is the well‐documented claim that earnings over a short (three‐ to four‐year) forecast horizon tend to capture a large fraction—as much as 80%—of today's value, much more than is captured by near‐term forecasts of free cash flow, the measure long advocated by finance theorists as the basis for DCF valuation. But most important for the purposes of this article, the recognition that such a large percentage of the current values of many public companies is captured within a short forecast horizon has led to a large academic literature that uses earnings‐based valuation models together with current stock prices to “back out” estimates of the companies' implied expected rates of return and costs of equity capital. The effectiveness and precision of such reverse engineering depend on the reliability of the forecasts both within a finite forecast horizon and beyond. And although the models tested in academic work, which are based on large samples of forecasts and hard‐to‐verify assumptions about earnings beyond the forecast horizon, often do not appear to provide useful estimates, the author argues that such reverse engineering of the valuation models should become straightforward and workable once reliable forecasts of earnings are obtained—say, from the corporate (or investment) analysts who are familiar with the operations of the companies they work for (or cover).     

Three Common Misconceptions About Markets (or Why Earnings Smoothing,Guidance, and Concern About Meeting Consensus Estimates are Likely to be Counterproductive)

Although many executives strive for stable earnings growth, finance theory and research have long suggested that the most sophisticated investors aren't especially concerned about “normal” levels of variability in reported earnings. More recent research by the authors and their McKinsey colleagues also suggests that extraordinary efforts to achieve steady growth in earnings per share quarter after quarter aren't worthwhile and may actually hurt the companies that undertake them. While such efforts to smooth earnings involve real costs, the research finds no meaningful relationship between earnings variability and valuation multiples or shareholder returns. Based on these findings, as well as considerable experience in advising companies, the authors offer the following advice to senior executives:

• Managers shouldn't shape their earnings targets or budgets just to meet consensus estimates. Companies that reduce spending on product development, sales and marketing, or other contributors to long‐term growth are sacrificing long‐term performance for the appearance of short‐term strength.
• As the year progresses, managers should likewise avoid costly, shortsighted actions to meet the consensus. Resist the temptation to offer customers end‐of‐year discounts to boost current‐year sales, or to resort to creative accounting with accruals. Investors recognize these for what they are: borrowing from next year's earnings.

Finally, companies should reconsider the practice of quarterly earnings guidance. Instead of providing frequent earnings guidance, companies should design their investor communication policies to help the market to understand their strategy, the underlying value drivers of their business, and the most important risks associated with the business—in short, to understand the long‐term health and value of the enterprise.     

Corporate Governance and Investor Reaction to Reported Earnings: An Exploratory Study of Listed Chinese Companies

This study explores the determinants of listed Chinese companies’ governance practices. It also examines how these companies’ governance practices affect domestic investors’ reaction to their earnings reports. Using publicly disclosed financial information and data directly collected from 148 domestically listed Chinese companies, the findings are consistent with investors in these companies basing their valuation decisions, at least in part, on these companies’ earnings reports. This is indicated by the significant relationship between “unexpected” earnings and cumulative abnormal returns. However, the hypothesized effects of governance practice/choice are, on the whole, not supported. There also is no systematic relation between governance choice and ownership structure. We interpret these findings to imply that in the Chinese securities market, the institutional factors and infrastructure (e.g., legal liability, information intermediation, market for managers, and takeovers) are not yet sufficiently developed to permit individual domestic investors to exert significant influence via their actions in the capital markets.     

The Purpose of the Firm,Valuation, and the Management of Intangibles

This article provides a different way of thinking about, and responding to, four important issues that confront most public companies. First, in articulating the overarching corporate purpose, the author suggests a middle ground between shareholder value maximization and stakeholder theory that aims to achieve the end result of value maximization while taking a “holistic” view that meets most of the demands of stakeholder advocates. As described by the author, there are four critical steps for management and boards in creating such companies: (1) communicating a vision of the company and its purpose to employees as well as investors (and other key outsiders); (2) organizing to survive and prosper through efficiency and innovation; (3) working continuously to develop win‐win relationships with stakeholders and other companies; and (4) taking care of the environment and future generations. Second, in thinking about the corporate purpose and how to evaluate success in achieving it, managements and boards need a valuation model that provides a clear and insightful connection between long‐term corporate performance and market valuation, and how both might be expected to change as the firm matures. A strong case is presented for the life‐cycle valuation model, widely used by money management organizations, in which a company's projected cash flows reflect an expected “fade” in both economic returns on capital and reinvestment rates. The potential uses of this model are illustrated using lifecycle corporate performance data for 3M during the past 50 years. Third, in an effort to capture the value of innovation and investment in intangible assets, the author presents an alternative to the accounting approach of capitalizing and amortizing such assets that attempts to capture their expected future benefits by using more favorable forecasts of long‐term fade rates. Fourth, the author shows how incorporating Life‐cycle Reviews for each of a company's business units as part of its Integrated Reporting could improve management's resource allocation decisions, help build a shareholder base of long‐term investors, and provide management with the support and confidence to resist Wall Street's excessive emphasis on quarterly earnings.     

股权质押对审计定价的影响及影响机制研究

本文以2010-2018年我国沪深上市公司为样本,探讨了股权质押对审计定价的影响,研究结果表明:是否有股权质押与公司审计费用显著正相关;股权质押比例与审计费用显著正相关。而股权质押影响审计定价的机制分析结果显示:有股权质押、股权质押比例越多时,公司的盈余管理风险和违规风险越大,表明股权质押主要通过提高公司盈余管理风险和违规风险,进而提高了公司的审计费用。结论丰富了审计费用的影响因素、股权质押经济后果的相关文献,为上市公司、会计师事务所、监管部门决策提供了科学借鉴。     

Deferred taxes,earnings management,and corporate governance: Malaysian evidence

This study examines whether Malaysian public listed companies (PLCs) use deferred taxes to avoid an earnings decline. In addition, this study also examines whether corporate governance mechanisms attenuate the extent to which deferred taxes are used to manage earnings. Using a sample of 221 PLCs listed on the main and second boards of Bursa Malaysia in 2008 with a complete set of data available from 2005 to 2008, this study finds that Malaysian PLCs use both the accrual and valuation allowance components of net deferred tax liabilities to avoid a decline in earnings. The study also finds that ownership structure and board structure affect the extent to which earnings management is associated with a deferred tax component.     

基于结构化模型的企业短期融资券信用溢价研究

本文在使用外生给定的违约回收率代替隐合违约回收率对结构化模型中的信用溢价公式进行修正后，对我国上市企业短期融资券的信用溢价进行了实证研究。结果表明，目前上市企业短期融资券的信用溢价水平整体较低．但一些短期融资券信用溢价的差异较为明显；模型计算得到的信用溢价与调整后的短期融资券发行利率存在一定正相关性，这种相关性在信用溢价较高时表现较为明显。