A Simulation-Based Investigation of Errors in Accounting-Based Surrogates for Internal Rate of Return

Accounting-based measures of a firm's ex post performance represent accessible, albeit imperfect, surrogates for its internal rate of return (IRR). Using a cross-sectional data set obtained via computer simulation, this study calculated the error with which the accounting rate of return (ARR) and conditional estimate of internal rate of return (CIRR) estimate IRR. The study compared the error with which both surrogates measure IRR, as well as the ability of growth in unit demand (gD), inventory cost flow assumption (INV) and depreciation method (DEP) to explain the measurement error in both surrogates.     

Accounting Rate of Return vs. Economic Rate of Return

The accounting rate of return (ARR) has traditionally been used as a surrogate for the economic rate of return (IRR) in evaluating the effectiveness of managements' capital investment decisions. Over the years, some question has been raised as to the validity of using the ARR as an approximation of the IRR. Several papers have recently come to grips with this question with varying degrees of success. This paper is intended to expose the conceptual differences between these rates of return, with the goal of clearly pointing out just how useful the ARR can be to management.     

Accounting and economic rates of return: Additional Australian evidence

The key issue addressed in my paper is whether accounting rate of return (ARR) performs as an effective monitoring surrogate for internal rate of return (IRR). Financial information derived from a sample of 44 Australian corporations between 1968 and 1990 was utilized to accomplish this objective. The Kelly-Tippett (1991) technique was employed to analyze the data set. Results confirm earlier work in the area in that the ARR was found to be an unreliable substitute for the IRR.     

On the validity of accounting rates of return in cross-sectional analysis: Theory, evidence, and implications

This paper reports the results of an empirical examination of the relationship between firm accounting rate of return (ARR) and firm internal rate of return (IRR). The evidence presented shows that some of the analytically derived properties of the ARR-IRR relationship hold in a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms. This evidence can be interpreted as documenting the existence of a potentially important degree of measurement error in the ARR for a sample of actual firms and increases the credibility of those who have questioned the use of accounting rates of return as the dependent variable in cross-sectional studies of firm profitability.     

The evolution of the application of capital budgeting techniques in enterprises

This study examines the evolution of the application of capital budgeting techniques. Previous studies mostly used cross-sectional inquiries to understand the capital budgeting practices of firms. Only a few researchers have undertaken longitudinal studies to generalise the findings of the individual cross-sectional studies to the wider population and to identify the emerging trends in the use of capital budgeting techniques (CBTs). This longitudinal study surveys 83 studies of capital budgeting practices across firms in India, South Africa, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States of America (USA) for the period from 1966 to 2016. The findings show that six capital budgeting techniques, namely, the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR), the payback period (PBP), the accounting rate of return (ARR), the return on investment (ROI) and the real option valuation (ROV), are the most popular methods for evaluating capital investments. Of these techniques, the ROV is the least used, and a general lack of familiarity with this technique and its complexity are the most commonly cited reasons for not using it. Another method that is used less than the first four techniques is the ROI. However, this technique is of growing significance and is mainly used in the UK, followed by the USA, South Africa, and India. Firms in the USA and UK have increased their use of the IRR as a primary method for evaluating capital projects and have retained the PBP as an ancillary technique to strengthen the available information when evaluating capital projects. Firms in India and South Africa are increasingly excluding both the PBP and ARR methods and are increasingly using the NPV when evaluating capital investments. Although this development is in line with the theory, it limits the scope of the available information when evaluating capital projects.     

Economic and Accounting Rates of Return A Statistical Model

This paper develops a number of statistical procedures than can be used to determine whether a firm's ex post accounting rate of return (ARR) is likely to provide guidance as to the economic return the firm will earn over its remaining life. The paper argues that if a corporation's future process cash flows are generated by some form of stochastic process, then the probability density function induced by this can be used to assess whether the ARR provides a reasonable reflection of the economic return the corporation is likely to earn over its remaining life. Five large listed companies are used as case studies to illustrate the model's application.     

The accounting treatment of intangibles – A critical review of the literature

Intangible investments have become the main value creators for many companies and economic sectors. However, these investments are rarely recognized as assets by current accounting standards. We provide a critical review of the literature on the consequences of this lack of accounting recognition of intangibles for the value-relevance of financial information, resource allocation in the capital market, growth of intangible investments, and the firm's market value. We then review recent empirical research on voluntary disclosure of information on intangibles. Our survey concludes that disclosure can considered as a solution to the negative consequences of non-recognition of intangibles in financial statements.     

Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns

As a consequence of optimal investment choices, a firm's assets and growth options change in predictable ways. Using a dynamic model, we show that this imparts predictability to changes in a firm's systematic risk, and its expected return. Simulations show that the model simultaneously reproduces: (i) the time-series relation between the book-to-market ratio and asset returns; (ii) the cross-sectional relation between book-to-market, market value, and return; (iii) contrarian effects at short horizons; (iv) momentum effects at longer horizons; and (v) the inverse relation between interest rates and the market risk premium.     

南橘北枳:A股市场的经济关联与股票回报

本文系统检验并比较了中国A股市场中行业动量、区域动量、供应链动量以及科技关联动量等经济关联动量的显著性及预测周期。本文发现,中国股票市场中经济关联因子呈现出与美国股票市场不同的规律,在月度层面行业动量显著,而科技关联因子只在周度上具有显著的预测能力。进一步分析科技关联动量发现,中国股票市场中科技关联因子能预测目标公司未来1-3周的股票收益和未来基本面的变化,据此构建的多空策略能够产生周度0.16%的超额收益(年化8.67%);机制检验发现,科技关联因子预测期短的原因是由于中国股票市场中存在较多具有博彩倾向的散户投资者;有限注意和市场摩擦两个机制检验证明科技关联动量源自错误定价。进一步检验发现,科技关联动量在国有企业和创新政策颁布后更加显著。本文补充了现有A股市场的动量研究,有助于理解中国股票市场规律、提升资本市场有效性。     

SOME FORMAL CONNECTIONS BETWEEN ECONOMIC VALUES AND YIELDS AND ACCOUNTING NUMBERS

This paper reports a number of results concerning the relationship between accounting numbers and economic values and yields. Some of the results have appeared previously in the literature and some are new. They have been collected together in a common analytical framework in order to demonstrate their formal, mathematical character. It is shown that present value can be obtained by discounting almost any profit numbers; that accounting rates of return define a discount function directly analagous to the term structure and the internal rate of return; and that the internal rate of return can be expressed as a linear weighted sum of accounting rates of return.     

Earnings, Cash Flows and Security Returns Over Long Return Intervals: Analysis and UK Evidence

The aim of this paper is to provide a fuller understanding of the process linking security returns and accounting data by focusing on the effect of long return intervals on the association between security returns and earnings and cash flow variables. First, we develop a theoretical basis for empirical analysis of the relationship between security returns and cash flow data over long return intervals. Second, we carry out empirical analysis of both the information content of cash flow variables and the incremental information content of accounting earnings and cash flows using UK data over the period 1985–92 for annual, two year and four year return intervals. Our results provide strong evidence of the valuation relevance of cash flow information for the dataset examined.     

上市公司综合盈利水平与股票收益

本文基于2000-2017年上市公司的财务及股票交易数据,研究了上市公司综合盈利水平与股票收益之间的关系。我们使用目前资产定价文献中较新的偏最小二乘法和组合预测法,从12个衡量公司盈利能力的指标中提取了一个测度上市公司综合盈利水平的指标。研究结果显示,上市公司综合盈利水平能够显著预测未来股票收益。使用单因子偏最小二乘法、取12个月斜率的平均值构造的综合盈利水平最有效,以其构建的多空对冲投资组合能产生15%的年平均收益,夏普比率达到0.75。与此对应,组合预测法提取的上市公司综合盈利水平的预测能力稍低,但依然显著。在控制了其他公司特征变量后,综合盈利水平对于股票收益的解释能力依然稳健。本文还从经济机制的角度出发,探讨了综合盈利水平对收益的预测来源。我们发现,上市公司综合盈利水平与股票预期回报的正向关系在投资摩擦更低的组中更高,而在错误定价程度更高的组通常更低。这些结果支持了基于投资摩擦的Q理论,而与行为金融的错误定价理论相悖。     

The effect of uncertain inflation on firm value in a multiperiod economy

We model firm value in a multiperiod setting with uncertain inflation and show that real rates of return on the firm's securities are intertemporally dependent. The model also predicts an inverse intertemporal relationship between the real rate of return and the lagged value of Tobin'sq. We report empirical evidence in support of the hypothesized relationship. The model could explain the mean-reverting property of long-horizon stock returns reported in recent studies.     

The meaning of a defined accounting concept: regulatory changes and the effect on auditor decision making

Accounting standards exist in an attempt to “standardize” accounting practice. These standards contain definitions of accounting concepts whose function is to guide judgments made in practice. However, such judgments can have a major impact on a firm's externally reported accounting numbers, as their inherent subjectivity and discretion may be lent to the manipulation of earnings. This study provides empirical evidence of the effect of measured meaning on an accounting judgment, in the context of regulated changes to the definition of one key accounting concept used in measuring operating income. The extraordinary items classification decisions made by auditors were found to be systematically associated with differences in measured meaning of the extraordinary items definition. The study has important policy implications for accounting standard-setting.     

Conservatism, growth, and return on investment

Return on Investment (ROI) is widely regarded as a key measure of firm profitability. The accounting literature has long recognized that ROI will generally not reflect economic profitability, as determined by the internal rate of return (IRR) of a firm’s investment projects. In particular, it has been noted that accounting conservatism may result in an upward bias of ROI, relative to the underlying IRR. We examine both theoretically and empirically the behavior of ROI as a function of two variables: past growth in new investments and accounting conservatism. Higher growth is shown to result in lower levels of ROI provided the accounting is conservative, while the opposite is generally true for liberal accounting policies. Conversely, more conservative accounting will increase ROI provided growth in new investments has been “moderate” over the relevant horizon, while the opposite is true if new investments grew at sufficiently high rates. Taken together, we find that conservatism and growth are “substitutes” in their joint impact on ROI.     

Predicting Stock Returns Using Financial Statement Information

We examine the profitability of the Ou and Penman (1989a) Pr trading strategy and the Holthausen and Larcker (1992) Prob trading strategy over the period 1980–1992 in the UK. This is a test of whether an investor can earn abnormal returns by exploiting fundamental accounting data. We employ alternative abnormal return metrics and research designs to control for risk. Using a UK dataset offers an independent test because the UK differs from the US in its formal and informal financial reporting environment, its structure of share ownership, and the behaviour of its economy over the study period. We find consistent evidence that an investor could have used a summary measure of financial statement information to predict future abnormal returns by indirectly predicting one-year-ahead earnings changes, but only weak and inconsistent evidence that an investor could have used a summary measure of financial statement information to predict one-year-ahead stock returns directly. We offer some thoughts on the reasons for these different results.     

The Implications of Dispersion in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Future ROE and Future Returns

Dispersion in analysts' forecasts is empirically evaluated by associating dispersion with a firm's future accounting rate of return-on-equity (ROE) and future returns. Forecast dispersion is significantly and negatively associated with future ROE, consistent with the notion that firm disclosures and analysts' information acquisition efforts increase as firm prospects improve. Forecast dispersion is negatively associated with future returns. This appears due to the implications of dispersion for future ROE, and suggests that the market does not immediately assimilate the information contained in forecast dispersion. Dispersion also conveys information about firm-specific risk not captured by beta and firm size.     

Accounting Ratios and the Cross‐section of Expected Stock Returns

Under clean‐surplus accounting, the log return on a stock can be decomposed into a linear function of the contemporaneous log return on equity, the contemporaneous log dividend–price ratio (if the stock pays a dividend), and both the contemporaneous and lagged values of the log book‐to‐market equity ratio. This paper studies the implications of this decomposition for the cross‐section of conditional expected stock returns. The empirical analysis reveals that the log accounting ratios capture cross‐sectional variation in both the conditional mean and conditional variance of log stock returns, which is consistent with the decomposition. It also brings fresh insights to the relation between firm size (market equity) and conditional expected stock returns. The evidence indicates that the conditional median return increases with firm size, while the conditional return skewness decreases with firm size. Empirically, the skewness effect outweighs the median effect, leading to the well‐documented inverse relation between size and average returns. The results of out‐of‐sample tests suggest that investors could use the information provided by the observed values of the log accounting ratios to formulate more effective portfolio strategies.     

Do institutional shareholder services (ISS) corporate governance ratings reflect a company's operating performance?

Little is known about the relation between the actual governance rating received by a firm and the firm's performance. In this study, we examine the relation between the actual corporate governance rating received by a firm and the firm's performance during the years 2002–2004. We use the institutional shareholder services (ISS) corporate governance quotient (CGQ) rating of a firm's corporate governance structure and analyze this rating in relation to the firm's operating performance. We compare the institutional shareholder services’ CGQ rating to two measures of the firm's operating performance, return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). Based upon our results, we do not find statistical evidence suggesting that the firms’ operating performance is related to the firms’ ISS corporate governance rating.     

Economic and Accounting (Book) Rates of Return: Application of a Statistical Model

Harcourt's (1965) classic paper has spawned a considerable literature dealing with the relationship between economic and accounting rates of return. Kay (1976), Ijiri (1979), Salamon (1982) and Kelly and Tippett (1991), for example, can be interpreted as extensions of Harcourt's seminal analysis, while Kay (1976), Salamon (1982, 1985) and Gordon and Hamer (1988) provide empirical evidence on the sustainability of basic propositions. The present paper's focus is on the latter area; we apply the statistical procedures laid down in Kelly and Tippett (1991) to about 200 British companies to assess the correspondence between the ex post accounting rate of return and the prospective economic return. The economic return is estimated using three cash flow definitions. For all three, the accounting rate of return is significantly lower than the economic return. Further tests show the economic return to be inversely related to the accounting rate of return, although the relationship is weak. In addition, ‘large’ firms tend to report lower accounting rates of return than ‘small’ firms, but again the relationship is weak.