A critical review of the application of environmental scenario exercises

Scenario exercises have become instrumental across multiple fields, from their original usage in business and military planning, to being ubiquitous in environmental planning and policy formation. This article critically reviews whether there are explicit and imminent divisions between how scenario exercises are used and discussed, with particular focus on the literature of qualitative scenarios concerning environmental challenges. The authors interrogate what scenario exercises are in actual practice, in the context of what they are used for and how they are designed, before then considering the criteria for determining ‘success’ for a scenario exercise. The particular focus of the literature analysed is in the emergence of the discipline of ‘environmental scenarios’, being scenarios concerned with 21st Century environmental challenges such as the influence of climate change on the notion of natural hazards.     

Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning's role as a catalyst for urban policy integration

Policy integration has become a high-priority objective for urban planning and management. At the same time, the transportation and urban planning fields have increasingly employed scenario planning approaches, not only to develop long-term strategy, but also—potentially—to strengthen organizational networks and encourage collaborative action. Yet these latter supposed outcomes of scenario planning remain under-theorized and largely untested. In this study, we propose a methodology, based on established theories of collaboration, to test the ability of a particular type of scenario planning to encourage collaboration between participants. We demonstrate the approach using a scenario planning process undertaken within the transportation and urban planning community in Portugal. The pre-/post-test experimental design uses a survey designed to assess participants’ propensity for future collaboration by measuring change in individuals’ perceptions and understandings. The results suggest that the process likely modestly increased participants’ propensity to collaborate, primarily by strengthening inter-agency networks. The effects on participants’ views and understanding remain inconclusive. We suggest that specific challenges in applying this specific scenario planning approach to public sector contexts may limit the method's potential in achieving inter-organizational collaboration. Nonetheless, only more widespread efforts to formally test the scenario planning rhetoric will reveal the true impacts on organization change.     

Future Search as ‘real-time’ action research

This paper explores essential links between the brief planning meeting that we call ‘future search’ and the action research tradition of pioneer social psychologist Kurt Lewin. The two practices, based on common values, employ different procedures. Unlike action research, future search involves stakeholders in collecting and organizing their own data, and deciding what to do, all in a single meeting. Unlike scenario planning, future search leads people to create the future they most desire without assessing the probability of attaining it, We work on the assumption that people who put their energy into what they want are more likely to have it. We think of future search as an intersection of three levels of social change practice: (1) a meeting design based on four key principles to be described; (2) a theory and philosophy of facilitating that might be characterized as ‘doing less so that participants can do more;’ (3) a whole system change strategy requiring no special training, systems theory or vocabulary. This article highlights the first level, showing how principles grounded in the Lewinian tradition are translated into a meeting design that stimulates ongoing cooperative action.     

Perceptions of the relationship between scenario planning and firm performance: A qualitative study

This paper presents research findings from the application of scenario planning in multinational firms that operate in competitive industries. We use exclusive and not publicly available data to investigate the link between scenario planning and firm performance from a qualitative perspective. The focus was primarily on firms that had real-life experiences with this strategic tool. Our research suggests that scenario planning is interwoven in how strategy is formulated and that it has a major influence on decisions taken by management. We also found that none of the firms reported formal efforts of assessing the success rate of scenario planning. Participants report that this is due to difficulties in measuring qualitative and quantitative outcomes and because standardized assessment tools are not readily available for this kind of strategic intervention. Overall, participants generally regarded scenario planning as an effective intervention with a positive contribution to the firms’ performance. When pressed for more detail, participants revealed that scenario planning techniques were useful in exploring the business environment and future risks, isolating trends, understanding interdependent forces, and considering the implications of strategic decision-making.     

From New Public Management to New Public Governance? Hybridization and Implications for Public Sector Consumerism

This paper examines how variations in the notion of public sector consumerism become embedded in diverse governance practices. To this end, we extend the literature on public governance logics with insights from research on public sector consumerism and hybridization in public sector management reforms. Through a comparative, multi‐level analysis we trace the development of two governance logics largely corresponding to the distinction between New Public Management (NPM) and New Public Governance (NPG) in Swedish transport infrastructure policy. In contrast to research predicting or prescribing a relatively radical shift between such governance logics we show how they partly co‐evolved along two reform paths entailing notable variations in the degree of hybridization and the embedding of consumerist notions in emerging governance practices. In doing so, we draw attention to how the hybridization of governance logics is contingent on the alignment of diverse interests and differences in the process through which such logics are brought together. We discuss the implications of these findings for future research into public sector consumerism and hybridization in public sector management reforms.     

Scenario thinking: A practice-based approach for the identification of opportunities for innovation

Drawing on the social theory of practice, this paper ‘unpacks’ scenario thinking in the form of strategizing in product innovation teams to explore when and how the practice may lead to the identification of opportunities for innovation. Adopting a case-based approach, three software companies engaged in four new product development projects served as our empirical research sites. We found creative emergence and open-endedness of the practice in innovation teams serving as quintessentially embedded modalities and contingencies that supports the identification of opportunities for innovation as a potential outcome of scenario thinking. We also suggest a framework that specifies how specific team practices supporting scenario thinking (strategic conversation and human-material interactions, and reflexivity-in-practice) may operate in combination or serially, and which may lead in turn to the identification of opportunities for innovation.     

Orchestrating a creative learning environment: Design and scenario work as a coaching experience - How educational science and psychology can help design and scenario work & vice-versa

This article considers design and scenario work as a team-coaching experience. It presents the componential theory of learning in coaching and the underlying componential model of creative learning, highlighting some ideas and showing some possibilities of using them for creating and implementing a creative learning environment necessary for the success of both design and scenario work. The benefits of other methods and tools of educational science and psychology are also briefly described. Finally, possibilities arising from the new as well as the usual perspectives on design and scenario work for educational science and psychology – more precisely, coaching and creativity research – are dealt with. In the last section of the article, general principles used are highlighted and summarized. Some connections to fundamental questions of the role of sciences, arts, theory and practice as well as of the location of design and scenario work are discussed. Thereby, a possible solution to the related controversy is initially proposed. Overall, this article shows some of the areas in which educational science and psychology, on the one side, and design and scenario work, on the other, can be of mutual benefit. It aims to initiate further discussions about connections among the mentioned fields, and seeks to suggest some possibilities for interdisciplinary research and utilization of its results.     

Perceived Environmental Uncertainty in scenario planning

Scenario planning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices of scenario planning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenario planning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmental uncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenario planning researchers, which suggests that Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) influences the micro-external as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper reviews the most dominant theories on scenario planning process and PEU, developing three propositions for the practice of scenario planning process. Furthermore, it shows how these propositions can be integrated in the scenario planning process in order to improve the development of strategy.     

Risk Management Failures: What Are They and When Do They Happen?

The difficulties of the past year have convinced many observers that current risk management practices are deeply flawed, and that such flaws have contributed greatly to the current financial crisis. In this paper, the author challenges this view by showing the need to distinguish between flawed assessments by risk managers and corporate risk‐taking decisions that, although resulting in losses, were reasonable at the time they were made. In making this distinction, the paper also identifies a number of different ways that risk management can fail. In addition to choosing the wrong risk metrics and misidentifying or mismeasuring risks, risk managers can fail to communicate their risk assessments and provide effective guidance to top management and boards. And once top management has used that information to help determine the firm's risk appetite and strategy, the risk management function can also fail to monitor risks appropriately and maintain the firm's targeted risk positions. But if risk management has been mistakenly identified as the culprit in many cases, current risk management practice can be improved by taking into account the lessons from financial crises past and present. In particular, such crises have occurred with enough frequency that crisis conditions can be modeled, at least to some extent. And when models reach their limits of usefulness, companies should consider using scenario planning that aims to reveal the implications of crises for their financial health and survival. Instead of relying on past data, scenario planning must use forward‐looking economic analysis to evaluate the expected impact of sudden illiquidity and the associated feedback effects that are common in financial crises.     

Continuous monitoring with machine learning and interactive data visualization: An application to a healthcare payroll process

This paper presents a framework for proactive and intelligent continuous control monitoring (CCM) that helps management gain higher assurance over business processes and alleviate information overload. We adopt a design science approach towards systematically developing CCM artifacts, including operation and internal control violation display and multidimensional anomaly detection. We illustrate the design with an implementation project whereby a CPA firm, the firm's healthcare sector client, and the research team work together to improve the assurance provided by payroll reviews. This study contributes to the CCM literature by envisioning that interactive data visualization and machine learning technologies can alleviate information overload for management in CCM. Second, we provide real-world evidence on the improvement brought to economic and behavioral aspects of the control monitoring process compared to the traditional approach. We show that emerging technologies substantially improve the efficiency and effectiveness of risk assessment, anomaly detection, and loss prevention. We also contribute to control monitoring practice by providing guidance on artifact development and application for practitioners to follow.     

Management Control Systems in a Non-Enterprise Network: The Greenhouse Gas Protocol Initiative

This article is based on the action research project of a multi-stakeholder collaboration formed to produce the Greenhouse Gas Protocol. This non-enterprise cross-sector collaboration had two sets of problems: the first being the ideological differences of the stakeholders, who had differing interests and agendas regarding the production of standards. The second set relates to the practical problems of enabling 300 people from different organisations and time zones, with different levels of resource access and no clear financial goal or endpoint, to work together. To overcome these issues three types of management control systems were developed: strong planning processes, administrative and governance structures, and socio-ideological controls. The result of the collaboration is a set of greenhouse gas accounting standards that have widespread acceptance internationally. This study contributes to both practice and research on management control systems (MCS) by outlining how alternative forms of MCS can be designed for non-enterprise cross-sector collaboration.     

Nonfinancial performance measures,externalities and target setting: A comparative case study of resolutions through planning

This paper presents an analysis of the resolution of organisational externalities through the use of nonfinancial performance measures for planning. Using a comparative case study, this paper illustrates how centralised controllers’ choice of nonfinancial performance measures and target setting in two companies provides critical information to decentralised agents regarding how to balance their performance with the performance of other decentralised agents in their organisation. This work complements current management accounting research in that it focuses on the role of nonfinancial performance measures with respect to the design of performance plans for decentralised agents that can be used to internalise externalities. To date, discussions of externalities in management accounting research have primarily focused on how performance measurements can be used as a price mechanism to provide decentralised agents with incentives to internalise externalities. In addition, this case study illustrates some of the difficulties related to acquiring general knowledge about the externalities of nonfinancial performance measures and, therefore, about whether specific nonfinancial performance measures are appropriate for a particular type of organisation.     

Dominance,stakeholders’ moves and leadership shifts: New directions for transforming futures

Futures literature invites researchers to investigate stakeholders’ interests, actions and reactions, as well as to introduce an analysis of power and influence in scenario thinking. The purpose of this paper is to assess how the concept of dominance can help to improve scenario building and futures thinking as dominance transforms leadership within action processes. First, we examine power at work at different levels using concepts that relate to dominance and leadership shifts. Secondly, we discuss methodological proposals to implement the concepts of weak and strong dominance in action-based scenarios design and the implications of theses concepts for refining the approach of leadership in futures thinking. We conclude that paying attention to dominance transformations in scenarios is a promising direction to develop stakeholder and leadership analysis in scenario thinking. We suggest further research on the connection between history and futures thinking.     

The critical role of history in scenario thinking: Augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology

The historian Eric Hobsbawm stated that ‘The safest empirical generalization about history is still that nobody heeds its obvious lessons much’. Whether at a macroeconomic level or within individual organisations there are numerous examples of this, such as the economic crash of 2008, the causes of which had many parallels with those that caused the great depression 80 years previously. On the other hand however, overly-relying on the past as a guide to the future has its own obvious dangers—not least that important future events may have no past precedent. As such, the present paper firstly provides a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of using the past as a guide to the future. It then examines the role of history in scenario work, arguing that history should receive greater emphasis as part of the scenario planning process. We suggest changes to the standard Intuitive Logics (IL) approach to scenario planning which would render learning from history a more central component of the scenario process, in contrast to its current peripheral role. Rather than diminishing scenario planning’s ability to facilitate a consideration of how the future may differ from the past, we show how a greater emphasis on history can enhance consideration of the causality of future change. An adapted IL that has more emphasis on historical analysis can augment scenario planning’s effectiveness as a tool for consideration of the future.     

Exploring client scenarios associated with scenario planning

All scenario planning projects have a ‘client’ and one of the most challenging tasks facing a scenario planner is the client's role or position in the way projects are conceptualized, delivered and received. The scenario planner has to establish and manage a ‘successful client relationship’—but what actually constitutes that for a scenario planning project?The client acts as the conduit between the scenario planner and the organization for which the scenario planning project is being undertaken.The ‘client as conduit’ implies several challenges for the scenario planner including:

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The client's awareness and understanding of scenario planning as a method for their organization to learn from the future [1].

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The client's level of commitment to learning from the future.

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The size and context of the scenario planning project.

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The position of the client within a network of people and/or resources required to run a scenario planning project.

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The client's involvement or position within the scenario building team created in the project.

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The benefits and risks accruing to the client through the execution of the scenario planning project.

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The client organization's capacity to act strategically; its power to perform.

This paper will explore, through storytelling, different pictures of client relationships associated with scenario planning. The stories are developed from a deep and extensive well of scenario practitioner and consulting experience over the last 15 years to explore and discuss these client issues, and how clients for scenario planning projects have evolved, and how they may enhance or restrict scenario planning projects in the future.     

Long-range planning in the public sector

This article discusses suitable frameworks for long-range planning in the public sector. Specific attention is devoted to defence planning, because of the impact planning methodology in defence has had on other government sectors. Operations research, programme budgeting, and scenario techniques are cases in point. A number of different planning approaches are outlined, but the difficulty of transferring planning systems between different fields of application is emphasised. Even if programme budgeting is thought of as a long-range planning system, additional components and approaches, such as various types of futures studies, may be needed.     

加拿大数字货币的发展实践与启示

分布式账本技术的应用使数字货币进入了新的发展阶段。中央银行数字货币是中央银行的电子化负债,其对计价、交易、支付以至货币政策传导等都存在深刻影响。以加拿大为例,重点分析加拿大银行数字货币的发展实践,着重讨论加拿大贾斯珀项目如何测试分布式账本技术在银行间大额支付系统的适用性,同时分析如何将数字货币支付结算拓展至证券和外汇领域,并与外部合作进行跨境、跨币种支付试验。加拿大央行数字货币实践取得的积极进展表明,数字货币发行能力是维系央行功能的基础保障,但仍需权衡中心化管理体系与去中心化技术系统的匹配问题,分布式账本技术及其在央行数字货币的应用仍需深入研究与评估。     

Directions in scenario planning literature - A review of the past decades

This paper provides a systematized overview of patterns in the scenario planning literature published in the last decades. Recently, scenario planning has enjoyed a revival, apparent in the ‘boom’ in published research on the matter. Consequently, a major issue that needs to be addressed is how to organize the literature along precise lines. A number of reviews that describe the current status of the body of literature and knowledge on scenario planning have made attempts to respond to such requirements. These studies agree that systematizing the existing literature is a necessary step in developing the field. This paper aims to contribute to this purpose. The review of the academic literature here conducted is thought to be useful for both academics and practitioners. For researchers, this systematic overview will be constructive not only in providing an analysis of the directions of published research but also in setting up a research agenda for the future. For managers and practitioners, it provides a clear outline of firm-related articles and discusses their contribution from a managerial point of view. It also raises awareness with regard to future analytical methods, and in particular, to scenario planning and its potential contribution to the competitiveness of firms. The research was carried out under the research Project Enterprise of the Future of the University of Aveiro.     

改革开放30年中国管理会计的发展与创新——许继电气与宝钢的成本管理实践与启示

改革开放以来,中国的管理会计研究有了长足的进步。其中,标准成本管理作业成本法是颇受关注的领域。本文的目的是对标准成本与作业成本管理的两大领域进行回顾分析,并希望借助于本文的研究对两者的结合使用进行探讨,为我国开展成本管理提供借鉴。由于资料所限,我们并不讨论其他成本领域。