Fiscal incentives and political budget cycles in China

Political budget cycles in democracies have been extensively analyzed, but few studies of non-democracies exist. This paper explores political budget cycles in China’s provinces. Using data from Chinese provinces from 1980 to 2006, the analysis finds that the effects of a provincial leader’s tenure on political budget cycles are minimal, implying a weak causal relationship between spending composition and a politician’s time in office at the provincial level. However, there exists a national coordinated cycle associated with the timing of the National Congress of the Communist Party (NCCP). Two years prior to the NCCP, politicians are likely to shift public spending toward capital expenditures, such as innovation funds and capital construction, and away from current expenditures, such as agricultural subsidies. The opposite pattern occurs during the year of the NCCP, when politicians increase current expenditures, such as social expenditures and government administration, and decrease capital expenditures. The increased capital expenditures 2 years prior to the NCCP are accompanied by an increase in taxation and total aggregate spending. The empirical results indicate that provincial budget cycles are mainly driven by national policies rather than by provincial leaders’ personal career incentives. Chinese leaders’ fiscal behaviors are constrained by the dynamics of the national leadership transition, resulting in similar distortions to those found in the democratic countries.     

Fueling fiscal interactions: commodity price shocks and local government spending in Colombia

This paper explores fiscal interactions in a developing country. We analyze whether public expenditures in neighboring municipalities influence local spending decisions within a comprehensive set of expenditure categories. Our analysis is based on panel data covering the universe of Colombian municipalities from 2000 to 2010. We offer a quasi-experimental identification strategy exploiting exogenous variation in municipalities’ exposure to changes in the world market price of oil, depending on the municipalities’ endowment with oil resources and controlling for municipality fixed effects. While we find evidence of strong spatial autocorrelation of total local public spending as well as in almost all expenditure categories, the quasi-experimental approach reveals that there are no significant causal fiscal interaction effects between municipalities. This highlights the importance of using additional sources of exogenous variation for the identification of fiscal interactions. In the developing country context, our findings suggest that fiscal decentralization policies do not lead to a race to the bottom in local public expenditures.     

Taxation without representation: local fiscal response to intergovernmental transfers in China

This paper studies the effects of intergovernmental transfers on local public spending in China, an authoritarian country where local politicians are not largely accountable to residents. The identification exploits a discontinuity from the central government’s designation of National Poor Counties. We find that additional transfers to county governments increase local public spending one-for-one. We further confirm that counties receiving additional transfers do not reduce the effective tax burden borne by firms. The results echo the empirical anomaly of the flypaper effect found in developed economies under democratic governments.     

分税与地方财政支出结构

本文研究了税收分成对地方财政支出结构的影响。理论分析发现,在地方政府的财政支出结构竞争中,税收分成比例的提高将直接导致地方政府增加生产性公共支出,发挥生产性支出的产出外部性,提高产出水平和自身税收收入水平,实现福利最大化。一系列经验分析显著地验证了上述结论,即当地级市政府的税收分成率提高10%,该地区生产性支出占比将提高1.39%。本文的分析和结论有助于解释中国地方财政支出结构变动的原因,从而为政府间税收分配改革提供有效的政策建议。     

公共支出不断增长的一个解释：鲍莫尔非均衡增长模型

公共支出不断增长、政府规模不断扩大是一种全球性的社会经济现象。对于公共支出不断增长的原因的解释不胜枚举，其中也不乏成熟的理论。本文主要从1967年鲍莫尔建立的两部门非均衡增长模型出发，给出公共支出规模不断增长的一个可能性解释。并基于此理论结合我国实际试图给出一些合理的政策建议。     

Allocating Grant to the UK's Devolved Territories by Needs Assessment: Lessons from School Funding Formulae in England and Scotland

The UK's devolved governments (DGs) receive block grants to finance almost all their expenditure. The Barnett formula used to calculate these grants is often criticised because it does not consider the DGs’ spending needs. However, the feasibility of allocating block grants by needs assessment is often questioned, given the contestability of spending needs. This paper compares the formula used within England to assess the education spending needs of local authorities there with the equivalent Scottish formula, by using each formula in turn to calculate the relative spending needs of the UK territories. The rationale is to consider how similar the two formulae are in how they estimate the territories’ relative spending needs for education, a major responsibility of the DGs. The results show that the English and Scottish education allocation formulae produce similar estimates of the territories’ relative education spending needs. This suggests that it may be more feasible to allocate education resources to the UK's devolved territories based on needs assessment than some have suggested. The results also suggest some inequity in current patterns of education spending across the UK.     

Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers and the Role of Local Autonomy: Evidence from European Regions

Using a panel of 268 European regions during 1990–2014, we document that the degree of local government's autonomy, measured with the “Local Autonomy Index,” has a significant positive effect on the fiscal spending multiplier. The estimated geographic cross-sectional fiscal spending multiplier is on average close to zero in countries with the lowest degree of local autonomy, and around unity in countries with the highest degree of local autonomy. Multipliers are state-dependent: larger when gross domestic product is below trend and when there is slack in the labor market; in those states, local autonomy has a particularly large positive effect on the multiplier. To interpret the empirical findings, we build a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model where both local and central government spending contribute to a public good that enhances private labor productivity. Local governments are more efficient in producing the public good and the multiplier is higher in countries where local government spending has a larger share in the production of the public good.     

Crowding out or crowding in? Correlations of spending components within and across countries

Using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries, the paper studies variation in the transmission of shocks from public and private components of spending to the macro-economy and distinguishes between the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks. The aim is to study the extent by which capacity and propagation channels would reinforce or mitigate the cyclical responses of macroeconomic variables to expansionary and contractionary shocks to private and public components of spending. Further, the evidence will spell out the extent of co-movement in the variables’ adjustments to the specific shock across the macro economy. The bulk of the time-series evidence indicates more pervasive effects on growth in connection to private consumption across advanced countries. In contrast, the growth effects of public consumption are more pervasive across developing countries. Across the two groups, the growth impact of public consumption is more pronounced, compared to that of public investment. Further, the inflationary effects are pronounced with respect to public and private spending shocks. In general, the limited statistically significant real time-series evidence attests to conflicting channels with respect to variables’ adjustments to one shock and inadequate co-movement in the transmission mechanism of various public and private spending shocks in many countries.     

Concentrating on q and cash flow

Investment spending by US public firms is highly concentrated. The 100 largest spenders account for 60% of total capital expenditures and drive most of the variation in aggregate investment. This high concentration creates a disconnect between the average public firm and macroeconomic aggregates. For large firms, cash flow remains the primary driver of investment spending and has not declined in importance as it has for smaller public firms. The cash flowing to big spenders provides a better forecast of future investment opportunities than noisy proxies for Tobin's q even though these firms are not financially constrained. These results suggest that, at least for the largest spenders, it is unlikely that measurement error drives the significance of cash flow. Our results are also inconsistent with recent models that predict higher investment-cash flow sensitivity for small young growth firms and suggest that cash flow is still the most important determinant of macroeconomic fluctuations in investment spending.     

A Panel Data Analysis of the Fungibility of Foreign Aid

The donor community has been increasingly concerned that developmentassistance intended for crucial social and economic sectorsmight be used directly or indirectly to fund unproductive militaryand other expenditures. The link between foreign aid and publicspending is not straightforward because some aid may be "fungible."This article empirically examines the impact of foreign aidon the recipient's public expenditures, using cross-countrysamples of annual observations for 1971–90. For the base sample of 14 developing countries, it finds thataid is not fungible at the aggregate level and there is no associatedtax relief. Increasing the number of countries, however, makesaid fungible. Moreover, results based on the main sample indicatethat aid is fungible in three out of five sectors examined.Developing-country governments receiving earmarked concessionaryloans for agriculture, education, and energy reduce their ownresources going to these sectors and use them elsewhere; onlyloans to the transport and communication sector are fully spenton the purposes intended by donors. Because most aid appearsto be fungible, the rate of return on a specific donor-fundedproject tells little about the impact of that assistance; abetter approach may be to tie foreign aid to an overall publicexpenditure program that provides adequate resources to crucialsectors.     

Immigration and the pattern of public spending: evidence from OECD countries

Using a panel of OECD countries, we show that immigration systematically alters the composition of public spending in the destination country. To mitigate bias from the endogenous sorting of immigrants, we use an IV estimation strategy. The instrument is constructed by estimating a bilateral migration model for 24 destination and 208 source countries. We find that the host country responds to the increase in immigrants by adjusting various expenditures, such as by reallocating resources from social welfare to national defense and public order. Our findings imply that (1) immigration affects policy outcomes in areas with a low ethnic or redistributive dimension and (2) immigration may have an insubstantial effect on the total size of government.

     

Expenditure Incidence in Africa: Microeconomic Evidence

In this paper, we examine the progressivity of social sector expenditures in eight sub‐Saharan African countries. We employ dominance tests, complemented by extended Gini/concentration coefficients, to determine whether health and education expenditures redistribute resources to the poor. We find that social services are poorly targeted. Among the services examined, primary education tends to be most progressive and university education is least progressive. The benefits associated with hospital care are also less progressive than other health facilities. Our results also show that, while concentration curves are a useful way to summarise information on the distributional benefits of government expenditures, statistical testing of differences in curves is important.     

Private Equity and Local Public Finances

We study the economic impact of private equity (PE) investments on local governments, which are important corporate stakeholders. Examining over 11,000 deals and private firm data in Europe, we document that target firms' effective tax rates and total tax expenses decrease by 15% and 13% after PE deals. At the same time, target firms expand their capital expenditures and firm boundaries, but do not increase employment. Using administrative data on the public finances of German municipalities and exploiting the geographical and time-series variation in PE deals, we document that PE activity is negatively associated with local governments' tax revenues and spending. This result is likely driven by reduced tax payments of PE portfolio firms, accompanied by only modest positive spillovers of PE investments on regional economic growth. Collectively, our findings suggest that corporate tax efficiency serves as a cost-cutting channel in the PE sector and constrains the finances of local governments.     

公共管理类专业人才培养模式存在的问题及改革路径分析——新情境下学生就业前景分析视角

公共管理类专业的人才培养模式及与之相关的学生就业问题,直接影响着该学科及专业的持续生存和进一步发展。本文认为我校现行公共管理类专业人才培养模式存在的主要问题是教育提供者的人才培养预期、学生的从业发展意愿和社会需求主体吸纳毕业生的条件要求三者之间不相调适,并从中国现实情境下学生就业前景分析视角提出了解决此类问题的我校公共管理类专业人才培养模式改革的基本思路和路径。     

The stimulative effects of intergovernmental grants and the marginal cost of public funds

This paper tests the hypothesis that the stimulative effects of intergovernmental grants increase with the marginal cost of public funds of the recipient government. We present a simple theoretical framework that shows how a lump-sum transfer stimulates the marginal expenditures of a recipient government through an income effect and a price effect. We then test the prediction of this model using Canadian provincial data and exploit the discontinuity in the equalization grants allocation formula to identify the effects of grants. Our results indicate that the stimulative effects of lump-sum grants on spending increase with the provincial government’s marginal cost of public funds (MCF). One policy implication of our results is that higher intergovernmental transfers may be welfare improving if the federal government has a lower MCF than the provinces.     

Why Do Countries Mandate Accrual Accounting for Tax Purposes?

This study investigates why countries mandate accruals in the definition of corporate taxable income. Accruals alleviate timing and matching problems in cash flows, which smoothes taxable income and thus better aligns it with underlying economic performance. These accrual properties can be desirable in the tax setting as tax authorities seek more predictable corporate tax revenues. However, they can also make tax revenues procyclical by increasing the correlation between aggregate corporate tax revenues and aggregate economic activity. We argue that accruals shape the distribution of corporate tax revenues, which leads regulators to incorporate accruals into the definition of taxable income to balance the portfolio of government revenues and expenditures. Using a sample of 26 OECD countries, we find support for several theoretically motivated factors explaining the use of accruals in tax codes. We first provide evidence that corporate tax revenues are less volatile in high accrual countries, but high accrual countries collect relatively higher (lower) tax revenues when the corporate sector grows (contracts). Critically, we then show that accruals and smoother tax revenues are favored by countries with higher levels of government spending on public services and uncertain future expenditures, while countries with procyclical other tax collections favor cash rules and lower procyclicality of corporate tax revenues.     

政府卫生支出的差异性评估:基于省际、区域和城乡的实证研究

本文聚焦政府卫生支出的差异性,运用基尼系数、泰勒指数等方法,定量研究省际、区域间和城乡间政府卫生支出的不均衡状况和程度,研究发现,经济发展水平决定了各地政府卫生支出的水平和居民医疗卫生服务的水平.医疗卫生资源的配置不当和制度缺陷是造成目前政府卫生支出不均衡的主要原因.在新医改的背景下,调整发展思路,完善相关制度有助于改善政府卫生支出不均衡的状况.但是,制度的惯性和体制的约束决定了不均衡状况的改变将是一项长期的工作.     

The effect of VATs on government balance sheets

The value-added tax, VAT, has become a popular means of raising funds for governments around the world. Countries seeking to reduce variation in tax revenues as well as raise revenue to solve deficits often consider a VAT, and the IMF in particular has become an advocate for the tax for countries seeking tax reform. For all its popularity, its ability to deliver on these promises remains understudied. Countries with a lower cost of raising funds may instead choose to spend more instead of paying down their debts. This paper uses matching techniques to estimate the impact of a VAT on government debts and deficits. The tax is associated with falls in central government debt and deficits as well as expenditures as a share of GDP. There is limited evidence of increases in tax revenue and increases in stability of government spending. The choice of VAT rate is positively correlated with deficit reduction, and the effects of the tax are heterogeneous with respect to the probability of adoption of the treatment and what taxes it is replacing.     

Talent management in government in times of economic instability: selected cases from the BRICS countries

This paper explores the policies that three BRICS countries used to tackle the growing problem of attracting and retaining talent in public sector institutions. The authors trace the changes in these countries’ strategies and approaches resulting from growing budgetary constraints; labour market shifts; new demographic trends; increasing demands for higher performance by public servants; and complex challenges faced by governments worldwide. Although talent management in public sector institutions was a government priority for the three countries—Brazil, China, and Russia—the results achieved have been modest. The authors draw lessons for other governments from their analysis.     

The deregulation of capital markets in France

This paper investigates how the deregulation of French capital markets affected corporate investment in the 1980s. Access to public financial markets may be less important in countries that have traditionally relied on institutional investors to finance their corporate investment projects. This should be true for France where, contrary to the US, banks and government agencies have always been involved in firms’ long term activities. In this study, French firms are categorized based on their ownership structure and trading characteristics. Two investment models are augmented with measures of corporate liquidity in order to test the role of internal funds on investment. Empirical results show that only small French firms trading on the secondary stock market have to rely on liquid assets to finance their capital expenditures. French firms with strong bank ties avoid this constraint since they are allowed to maintain higher debt levels.