基于“三农”视角的农村信贷配给分析与对策选择

在目前的农村信贷市场上,以农村信用社为主的正规金融和私人借贷等非正规金融构成了信贷的供给方。但由于种种原因,作为支农主力军的农村信用社在担负起支农、兴农责任时,尚有部分保留,而非正规金融由于"先天不足",其借贷活动的规范仍需长期的政策引导与市场监管,这就导致了"涉农贷款难"。为此,本文从"三农"的角度,用微观经济学中的相关理论对当前农村信贷配给中存在的问题进行分析,并就解决"涉农贷款难"提出了相应的政策建议。     

The Thai Rural Credit System: Public Subsidies, Private Information, and Segmented Markets

Thailand has sought to increase farmers' access to credit bygovernment intervention. In 1966 it created a government agriculturalbank to lend solely to farm households, and beginning in thelate 1970s it required commercial banks to lend heavily in therural sector, either directly or by making deposits in the agriculturalbank. The result was an enormous expansion of credit in therural sector. But because formal lenders were either unableor unwilling to solve the information problems involved in thebroad range of rural credit transactions, the informal creditsector (which charged interest rates many times higher thanthe formal sector) continued to thrive. Using household surveysand surveys of moneylenders, this article provides a detailedanalysis of the ways in which lenders in the informal sectorhave solved the information problems of providing credit. Theauthors argue that the informal sector is competitive, and thathigh interest rates reflect high information costs, not thescarcity of funds.     

正规金融与非正规金融:机制、效率与实证挑战

正规金融与非正规金融的定位和关系,不仅是重要的学术问题,也是影响间接金融体系改革方向的关键。本文从机制视角建立学理框架,从信息和履约两个基础维度,讨论正规金融与非正规金融的相对效率及决定因素,并通过系统梳理相关文献,指出现有实证研究的成果与挑战;进而结合中国特征,讨论如何提高正规金融与非正规金融的效率,最后提出未来研究方向。本文认为,正规金融与非正规金融因信息和履约机制不同而各有其独立存在价值,其相对效率取决于不同经济发展阶段的社会网络基础和征信、法律体系,现有实证文献对两者作用的分歧主要源于分类、样本局限和内生性处理。本文从机制视角进行分析,体现了正规金融和非正规金融的金融属性,为探索相关领域学术研究和政策制定提供启示。     

信任视角下的家庭借贷行为研究

基于2015年和2017年中国家庭金融调查数据,本文实证研究发现,信任能够提高家庭正规信贷可得性,降低家庭使用非正规信贷的概率。进一步地,信贷可得性的差异带来家庭负债结构的变化,信任能够提升家庭正规信贷占比,降低非正规信贷占比。信任提升家庭资金借出概率,但这种关系并不是单调递增的,而是存在适度信任现象。异质性分析表明,在户主文化程度低的家庭和农村地区家庭,信任对借出的影响更大。因此,本文的结果表明,信任能够在一定程度上缓解家庭融资的困难。     

农户结构和行为对借贷倾向的影响研究——基于湖南2000户农户的问卷调查

基于湖南省2000户样本农户问卷调查数据,利用离散选择模型比较研究农户结构和行为对正规借贷和民间借贷供需倾向的影响发现,农户显性有效借贷需求严重不足,农户的结构和行为对其借贷需求倾向影响重大,农村金融中介的借贷供给倾向性非常明显。     

Determinants of Credit Constraints: Evidence from Sindh,Pakistan

This article investigates the determinants of credit constraints: evidence from Sindh, Pakistan. Cross-sectional farm-level data is collected during November and December 2016. A sample of 180 farm households is selected for interviews by using a multistage, random sampling technique. This study employed a probit regression model, frequency counts, and percentages to analyze the data. Access to formal agricultural credit is relatively low in Sindh province of Pakistan, the findings of the study show that the major constraints comprise distance to the formal credit sources, lending procedure, time lag, and interest rate whereas land ownership has a negative association and reduces the constraints to access formal credit. The findings of this study also show that for efficient allocation of resources, institutional sources of credit preferred to disburse agricultural credits toward educated and young age farmers as they are more inclined to adopt new farm technology for better farm production.     

Management accounting change and stability: Loosely coupled rules and routines in action

A problematic practical situation, which had remained unsolved for a long period, was encountered in a case research project. The apparent problem of the case firm was the modest standardisation of its information systems and management accounting reporting. Though problems linked with standardisation seemed to chronically look for solutions in the firm, only few attempts to change the situation emerged. The immediate purpose of the paper is to explain why there appeared to be problems without solutions in the case firm, and, in particular, how it managed to cope with such a situation. The paper contributes to recent literature on management accounting change and stability, primarily by drawing on the framework, based on institutional theory, by Burns and Scapens [Burns, J., Scapens, R.W., 2000. Conceptualizing management accounting change: an institutional framework. Manage. Acc. Res. 11, 3–25]. The notion of loose coupling is mobilised and integrated with the framework, and thereby the many-sided relation between two of its central notions, rules and routines, is refined. Loose coupling between rules and routines was characteristic of the everyday management accounting life in the case firm: well-developed and flexible informal routines and knowledgeable actions by the organisation's participants had the capacity to smooth the frictions of the formal rule systems related to management accounting, saving them from pressure for major change. The findings support the argument of the possible coexistence of change and stability in management accounting, however pointing to the need of keeping clear what aspect of management accounting – formal or informal – we refer to in each instance. They also suggest that the legitimising relation between the formal and the informal domains of an organisation can be an inverse of that typically claimed in the new institutionalist theory.     

农村非正规金融组织演变、规模与政策选择

农村非正规金融事实上一直在中国农村金融市场中扮演着特殊角色,本文对国内非正规金融与民间金融两种概念进行了必要区分,并指出农村非正规金融组织演变进程是由原先的社会属性向经济属性、关系型信用向准契约型信用转变的过程.中国农村非正规金融的最终演变方向与政府政策选择有着密切联系,政府应该有效地整合农村非正规金融资源,将其纳入到正式制度的调节范围,使其最终成为中国农村金融体系中的重要组成部分.     

Financial services consumption constraints: Empirical evidence from Rwandan rural households

The concentration of banking and financial institutions in the city and/or urban in any developing countries in general, Rwanda in particular creates various constraints in availing and consuming different financial products and services by the rural households. The article examines the forms and determinants of credit constraint status of rural households of Rwanda and the impact of constraints variables on availing and using the range of financial products and services. The study concludes that 42.5 per cent of the Rwandan rural households surveyed face triple forms of credit constraints including self-imposed constraints, quantity rationing and risk rationing by formal financial institutions. However, quantity rationing is perhaps not as pervasive as self-imposed rationing and risk rationing by the lenders. The results from the empirically tested model revealed that in addition to demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of households, the variables constraining demand and/or supply of financial services with reference to accessibility were significant predictors of households' credit constraints. The study informs on the needs for innovative systems, products and services that would increase access relax credit constraints and improve rural consumers' welfare. The authors conclude that establishing an enabling legal and regulatory environment, providing adequate public goods and physical infrastructure, designing capacity building and technical assistance programs and maintaining political and macroeconomic stability are perhaps major public and policy issues needed for a robust rural financial market.     

Imperfect Information, Screening, and the Costs of Informal Lending: A Study of a Rural Credit Market in Pakistan

Many governments have perceived the rural moneylender as usurious.This article takes a first step toward directly testing thevalidity of this view. In a study of services, costs, and chargesof fourteen informal market moneylenders and their clients inChambar, Pakistan, the article examines whether the high implicitinterest rates charged reflect the actual costs of operatingin that market. Estimates of the resource costs incurred byinformal lenders for screening, pursuing delinquent loans, overhead,and cost of capital (including unrecoverable loans) suggestthat lenders' charges are equal to their average cost of lendingbut exceed their marginal cost. This finding is consistent withthe view that the informal credit market is characterized byexcess capacity and monopolistic competition in the presenceof imperfect information.     

城市群政策能否促进区域金融协调发展?——基于方言视角下的实证检验

基于中国区域金融高质量发展的现实要求,本文试图解释城市群政策对金融协调发展的影响,并深入探究其中的机制路径。研究发现,城市群政策有效提升了地区的金融发展质量,一方面提升了金融发展总量,另一方面弥合了地区间的金融发展差距,由此实现了总量和均衡的双重拟合。进一步地,本文确证了方言一致性在整体上有助于城市群政策发挥积极作用,不仅在城市群内部促进了金融协调发展,还在城市群分割处弱化了由城市群政策带来的市场分割效应,体现了非正式制度在"正式制度-金融要素"之间扮演的重要角色。从机制上看,与城市群密切相关的地方文化--方言,更多的是通过经济个体间的身份认同(信任)来促成地区间的金融协调发展。鉴于此,本文认为对城市群的划分和发展,不仅要考虑地理距离,还应考虑以方言为代表的文化距离,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

声誉制度、非正式约束:信用共同体建设的理论与实践——基于天津农村合作银行信用共同体模式的案例研究

作为一种非正式的制度安排,信用共同体在解决银企信息不对称,破解中小企业融资难题方面发挥了重要作用。本文以天津农村合作银行建立的信用共同体为例,介绍了信用共同体的基本模式和特征,并从制度经济学角度加以分析,指出信用共同体的核心是声誉制度,其产生和发展源于我国制度不健全,具有一定的区域性和局部性。从长期看,需要建立更为完善的社会信用体系,才能从根本上解决信息不对称难题。     

农村信贷配给实证分析

信贷配给是制约我国农村信贷市场建设的重要因素,也阻碍了农村金融环境优化、影响了农村经济的良性发展。通过引入制度因子,量化信贷配给,构建了信贷配给宏观计量模型,对我国农村信贷配给状况进行实证检验,结果证明,利率和制度因子是造成我国农村信贷配给的两大因子。应合理调控利率、推进深化改革、加大三农扶持力度,实现农村经济社会的和谐发展。     

中国农村二元金融发展对农民收入影响的再考察——基于正规金融与非正规金融视角

基于正规金融与非正规金融视角,运用空间计量方法对2003-2010年中国31个省市农村二元分层金融发展的农民收入效应进行再考察。研究结果显示：农民收入、正规与非正规金融均存在显著的空间自相关性。正规与非正规金融的发展均有利于农民收入的增加,但是正规金融的影响效果不如非正规金融明显;农民收入、正规与非正规金融的空间变量对促进农民增收具有显著影响。     

金融联结的理论机理与实践绩效:文献梳理的视角

信贷补贴模式和市场模式相继失败之后,作为新的农贷模式,金融联结逐渐从民间自发实践演变为许多发展中国家的国家战略。金融联结既利用农村信贷市场微观结构,又融合正规金融和乡村中介的比较优势。它盛行于发展中国家,大量存在于新兴市场和发达国家,于我国亦初现端倪。从文献梳理视角,本文分析评述金融联结的现实背景、理论机理及国内外实践。基于发展前景的乐观预期,依据一般原理,结合中国情景,本文提出实施金融联结的政策建议。     

Financial Market Fragmentation and Reforms in Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania

This article reports the findings from surveys of formal andinformal institutions and their clients in Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria,and Tanzania. It investigates the hypothesis that reformingfinancially repressive policies would not be sufficient to overcomefragmentation of financial markets because of structural andinstitutional barriers to interactions across different marketsegments. The four countries have substantially fragmented financialmarkets, with weak linkages between formal and informal segmentsand interest rate differentials that cannot be adequately explainedby differences in costs and risks. Nevertheless, the relativelylow transaction costs and loan losses of informal institutionsindicate that they provide a reasonably efficient solution toinformation, transaction cost, and enforcement problems thatexclude their clients from access to formal banking services.The findings imply that financial liberalization and bank restructuringin the African context should be accompanied by complementarymeasures to address institutional and structural problems, suchas contract enforcement and information availability, and toimprove the integration of informal and formal financial markets.     

Land Tenure and Property Rights: Theory and Implications for Development Policy

This article explores the nature of property rights systems,their evolution, and their effect on resource allocation. Itis argued that certain institutional arrangements for land rightshave evolved in order to reduce uncertainty and increase efficiencyin credit as well as in land markets. Of particular relevanceto developing countries, the article emphasizes the contributionof public sector infrastructure to effective land rights systems.An appendix to the article presents a formal model analyzingthe effects of security of land rights on land prices, the intensityof cultivation, and the use of credit. Empirical evidence fromThailand supports several of the propositions derived from themodel.     

Heterogeneous Social network shape ability and willingness of rural residents to repay loans in China

This paper studies the impact and mechanism of heterogeneous social networks on credit repayment ability and willingness among Chinese rural residents. Based on the biprobit model with partial observability, we find a complementary relationship between repayment willingness and ability, and the heterogeneous social network effect differs with its nature. For repayment ability, bridging and bridged-linking social networks have positive effects whereas bonding and bond-linking social networks have insignificant effects. For repayment willingness, bonding and bond-linking social networks have positive effects whereas bridging and bridged-linking social networks have insignificant effect. Exploring mechanisms suggest that heterogeneous social networks affect repayment ability by alleviating income uncertainty, enhancing resident assets, and sharing risks; they shape repayment willingness through supervision, reputation, and punishment. Finally, the promoting effect of bonding and bond-linking networks on repayment willingness is enhanced by the construction of formal credit systems and the improvement of the informal credit climate.     

自我信贷配给、农村家庭财务能力与非正规借贷——基于江苏省495户农村家庭的调查

通过建立分位数回归模型,分析了自我信贷配给农村家庭财务能力水平与其非正规借贷规模之间的关系,实证结果显示:具有自我信贷配给特征的农村家庭,家庭财务能力与非正规借贷数量显著正相关;其中财务能力较低组农村家庭,其财务能力与借贷规模呈显著负相关关系;财务能力中等组农村家庭,其借贷规模受到财务能力的正向影响;财务能力较高组农村家庭,其借贷规模受到财务能力的正向影响越大.从而验证了我国农村“越穷越借,越借越穷”与“量入为出,不愿负债”并存的现象.因此,加强农村金融知识培训与普及、引导农村居民形成理性财务思维,提高农村家庭财务能力将有助于农村家庭更好地通过使用非正规借贷优化家庭财务效用.     

Social Trust,Institution, and Economic Growth: Evidence from China

Recent research has demonstrated the important role of social trust in economic growth. As a form of informal institution, social trust and formal institution are inextricable and intrinsically related. This article aims to investigate the relationship between social trust and institution, and their combined effects on economic growth. In an empirical investigation of cross-provincial data in the period 2001–2009 in China, our estimates suggest that the increase in social trust significantly promotes economic growth. The improvement of formal institution is also beneficial to economic growth. The effect of social trust on economic growth depends on the institution level, and this effect weakens with institutional strength.