中央银行货币政策对商业银行经营影响及对策研究

货币政策是中央银行实施的用以调节市场经济运行的政策。从长期看,它既为商业银行稳健发展创造了良好稳定的经济环境,又为调整信贷结构、提高信贷资产质量、营销优良客户提供了可能,也有利于培植新型的信贷文化。但从现今来看,在央行实行稳健货币政策阶段,商业银行的外部经营环境趋紧,业务发展速度特别是信贷投放不可避免地会受到一定程度抑制,业务经营将会受到一定影响。本文着重对我同近年的货币政策对商业银行经营影响进行分析并提出一些解决对策。     

调整存款准备金率对商业银行的影响

人民银行调高存款准备金率，对于金融结构尤其是对商业银行的实际经营效应会产生一定的影响，也为我们深入研究中央银行货币政策的操作提供了一个机会。本文主要是分析调整存款准备金率使商业银行在哪些方面受到了货币政策的影响。     

对当前形势下商业银行稳健经营原则的再认识

国际金融形势瞬息万变,世界知名银行轰然倒下,如何稳健经营成为银行业共同关注的话题。目前,我国实行积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,给银行业带来发展机遇的同时,又在稳健经营上提出了挑战,因此,研究我国商业银行稳健经营具有重要的现实意义。本文对商业银行稳健经营的含义和影响因素进行了论述,并提出了一些建议。     

多元化经营能否降低银行经营成本?——基于Granger检验与VAR分析

理论上,多元化经营可通过规模经济效应、范围经济效应以及协同效应等降低商业银行的经营成本,利用Granger检验与VAR方法,检验了17家上市商业银行非利息收入占比与成本收入比之间的关系。检验结果显示,大多数银行的非利息收入占比是成本收入比的Granger原因,且影响符号为负,即总体上商业银行多元化经营降低了经营成本,脉冲响应分析认为上述结果是稳健的;同时得出,大型国有商业银行多元化经营的成本效应更明显,股份制商业银行的多元化经营的成本效应次之,城市商业银行则应坚持专业化经营。     

从商业银行信贷行为机制看中央银行货币政策传导

商业银行是我国货币政策传导的基本中介，其经营行为特别是信贷行为影响着货币政策的有效性程度。本文从分析商业银行的一般信贷行为机制入手，对当前我国商业银行信贷行为的环境、目标、动机、表现和结果进行了透析，据此，提出了提高货币政策传导效应的相应建议。     

适度宽松政策下货币政策的有效性与银行业信贷投向初探——对邯郸辖区商业银行贷款投向的调查与分析

商业银行的贷款投向既受国家货币政策的影响，也受利润考核指标的驱使，对利润的过度追逐，会使商业银行的信贷投向偏离货币当局的政策意图，加重货币政策的时滞效应。本文在对邯郸辖区商业银行信贷投向与货币政策实施效应进行分析的基础上，提出了明确职责、合理授权、实行差别化货币政策以及建立信贷风险补偿机制，发展地方金融市场等增强货币政策有效性的     

利率市场化对商业银行经营的影响研究——基于绩效和风险的考量

在利率市场化提速与商业银行经营状况下滑并存的背景下,本文基于利率市场化影响商业银行的一般逻辑和现实情况,选取2007~2014年13家上市商业银行的面板数据,从经营绩效和经营风险两个角度深入考量利率市场化对商业银行经营的影响。实证结果表明,利率市场化通过利差效应、竞争效应等传导机制对商业银行产生较大影响,并且这种影响会因银行类型不同、货币政策松紧而存在异质性。最后,围绕深入推进利率市场化和商业银行应对策略,本文从外部环境、机制建设、商业银行行为等角度提出了相关政策建议。     

当前形势下提升商业银行盈利能力的几点思考

今年以来,随着国家货币政策不断向"稳健"转变,各商业银行流动性普遍偏紧。同时,央行利率市场化进程开始加速,巴塞尔协议Ⅱ、Ⅲ将相继一并实施,资本约束也将进一步强化,商业银行面临的经营环境将因此更加具有挑战性,以往单纯依     

论商业银行经营行为短期化的倾向及危害

我国商业银行在转制过程中，已取得一些可喜成绩，但也存在经营行为短期化倾向，如贷款“借新还旧‘，贷款期孕妇短、基层行长任期目标内目光短浅，资本非充足化等，若对这些短期化行为听之任之，则不仅影响商业银行自身的正常营运和长远发展，而且也会制约经济调整的步伐，不利于国内需求的扩大，因此，商业银行应坚持稳健经营，努力避免经营行为短期化。     

我国商业银行股份制改革对货币政策传导的影响

近年来,商业银行,特别是国有商业银行改革取得了重大进展,经营机制和经营行为发生了显著变化。与此同时,货币政策为了应对经济偏热状况,采取了相对稳健的调控措施,但短期效果不甚明显。本文从商业银行股份制改革的角度出发,分析其经营行为变化对货币政策传导的影响,并提出相关政策建议。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…