金融虚拟化演进考

金融虚拟性在货币产生过程中孕育,在货币制度演变过程中增强,其历程可划为三个阶段,即货币名义价值与实际价值分离的低度虚拟性阶段;金融市场自循环系统形成过程中的中度虚拟性阶段以及金融衍生工具兴起并盛行的高度虚拟阶段。金融虚拟化过程实际上构成了一个金融经济与实质经济的逐步分离并强化的趋势。     

大学科技城政企学研协同创新三方演化博弈研究

基于有限理性和不完全信息假设,构建大学科技城管委会、企业和学研方三方的演化博弈模型,考量三方共同作用的演化稳定策略和博弈演化过程。结果发现：大学科技城协同创新演化策略是三方主体共同作用的结果,只研究单一主体的演化决策具有局限性;学研方和企业参与协同创新的意愿与大学科技城的相关政策有关;学研方和企业参与协同创新的意愿与大学科技城主体的互信程度有关;大学科技城管委会选择监管的意愿与监管收益有关。     

Does implementation guidance affect opportunistic reporting and value relevance of earnings?

In recent years, both the SEC (2003) and the FASB (2004) [Securities and Exchange Commission, 2003. Study Pursuant to Section 108(d) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 on the Adoption by the United States Financial Reporting System of a Principles-Based Accounting System. Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington, DC; the Financial Accounting Standards Board, 2004. On the road to an objectives-oriented accounting system. Financial Accounting Series: The FASB Report (August 31), 1–5.] have indicated a need for accounting standards where principles are balanced by implementation guidance (i.e., a framework for exercising professional judgment). In this study, we take advantage of a jurisdictional split during 1996–2001 whereby the same economic event (i.e., an impairment in oil and gas assets) in the extractive petroleum industry was accounted for by “full cost” firms under a SEC standard (Regulation SX 4-10) which provides extensive implementation guidance, and by “successful efforts” firms under a FASB standard (SFAS No. 121) that provided relatively little guidance for implementing the standard.     

Learning and the Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance

This paper examines the link between expectations formation and the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance. A standard New Keynesian model is extended to include forward guidance shocks in the monetary policy rule. Agents form expectations about future macro‐economic variables via either the standard rational expectations hypothesis or an adaptive learning model. The results show that the assumption of rational expectations overstates the effects of forward guidance relative to adaptive learning during an economic crisis. Thus, if monetary policy is based on a model with rational expectations, the results of forward guidance could be potentially  misleading.     

基于三方演化博弈视角的中小投资者权益保护研究

在我国证券市场的不断发展中,中小投资者一直处于弱势地位,上市公司侵害中小投资者权益的事件时有发生。本文从演化博弈的视角分析中小投资者权益保护的问题,构建由上市公司、中小投资者和监管部门构成的三方演化博弈模型,运用复制动态方程以及Matlab仿真分析,对中小投资者权益保护问题进行研究。研究结果表明:(1)博弈中任何一方的策略选择都会影响其余两方的策略选择,同时也会受到另外两方策略选择的影响;(2)在一定条件,三方演化博弈模型存在三个演化稳定策略;(3)资本市场监管制度的完善程度对演化博弈参与主体特别是上市公司的策略选择有着重要的影响;(4)监管部门对上市公司的侵害行为收取的罚金水平对上市公司的行为选择具有重要的影响。     

Media,reputational risk,and bank loan contracting

We investigate how reputational risk arising from traditional and online media coverage of Corporate Social Irresponsibility (CSI) conducts affects the cost of borrowing and what are the factors that can mitigate or amplify this effect. First, we find that negative media attention increases bank loan costs and show that this result is robust to endogeneity concerns and alternative measures of key variables. Next, we find that the impact of negative media attention on bank loan costs is more severe if the misconduct involves borrowers with prior high Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) reputations, while it is smaller when prior lending relationships exist between the lead arranger and the borrower.     

Investment dynamics of fund managers under evolutionary games

We investigate the investment behavior of fund managers in financial markets according to evolutionary dynamics. We consider both the absolute and relative portfolio returns in the payoff gradient, to which the fund managers respond, and find the equilibrium proportion of risky investment. Compared to the case where only relative performance affects the payoff gradient, we find that, as the absolute performance affects the managers’ belief, the equilibrium of long and short positions increases. If short sales are not allowed, negative excess returns will force the managers to stay out of the market until the excess return becomes positive. Furthermore, we use a quadratic function to depict the relative performance. The quadratic setting captures the exaggerated sentiments of winners and losers arising from certain behavioral biases, and leads to a lower speed of convergence, which implies that herding decelerates and the managers are likely to adhere longer to their own strategies.     

论媒介融合趋势下报业发展导向

媒体融合趋势下内容和渠道的分离,也正彰显了传统媒体和新媒体各自的优势所在,报业应坚持以"内容为王"为导向,利用数字化平台制作出全媒体的融合新闻,借助新媒体传输手段和接收终端的多样化拓展渠道,变挑战为机遇,保存实力进行长足发展,为未来的产业融合和所有权融合做好充分准备。     

Implementation Guidance for Standards and Revenue Trend in Aggressive Reporting

This study examines the interactive effect of including the implementation guidance in accounting standards (with and without indicators) and different reported revenue trends (increasing, decreasing, and volatile) in aggressive reporting. For this purpose, we adopt a 2 × 3 between-subjects experiment. Aggressive reporting is measured by managers' perception of control and judgment regarding revenue recognition. The results of this experiment indicate that including the implementation guidance can constrain managers' revenue recognition judgments. The results show that for decreasing revenue trends, the inclusion of indicators for implementation does not influences managers' judgments regarding revenue recognition. For increasing revenue trends, the inclusion of guidance indicators matters in that the managers' judgments regarding revenue recognition are more aggressive in conditions without indicators than in conditions with indicators. The findings of this study extend the literature on implementation guidance in accounting standards and aggressive reporting.     

高校网络信息平台对大学生的舆论导向探究

随着网络技术和网络传媒在我国的迅速发展,贴吧、博客、博文、网络空间等自媒体得到了广泛的应用,大学生参与信息传播的热情度越来越高,高校学生群体中的政治舆论导向就显得越来越重要.本文从中日钓鱼岛争端中的网络舆论引出加强校园网络平台建设的必要性,并解读了大学生校园舆论的特点,最后提出了引导学生舆论走向的举措.     

Improving the relevance of risk factor disclosure in corporate annual reports

This research develops a model for assessing the quality of risk disclosures and applies the proposed model to four companies in the food production and processing sector. We contribute to the literature by extending prior work on risk disclosure quality using a longitudinal approach to assess the quality of risk reporting. While previous studies have described disclosure practices, this paper adopts a normative approach to disclosure. By suggesting a way of improving risk reporting disclosures, the paper provides guidance for current and future company managers. In line with previous research, this paper identifies certain problems with existing risk disclosures. Results suggest that company managers prefer providing disclosures that are symbolic rather than substantive. We argue that institutional factors and proprietary costs contribute towards and can explain this behaviour. In suggesting a way forward we highlight the role that stakeholders including managers, users, regulators and auditors can play in improving the quality of risk reporting. Flexibility in reporting could be maintained by adopting a properly monitored ‘comply or explain’ approach.     

基于内容提供商视角的传统媒体定价策略研究

随着移动互联网的发展,新媒体平台的出现和传统媒体的经营模式转型正在改变媒体市场结构。考虑传统媒体转型和新媒体内容外包,引入新媒体平台建立三方双边市场结构模型,考察竞争型市场结构中传统媒体平台的定价策略。研究发现：针对消费者和广告商进行差异性定价可以给传统媒体平台带来最佳收益,因此对消费者的低收费和补贴是合理的,并不构成非正当竞争;平台间差异化程度直接影响到其议价能力和利润水平;此外,消费者对广告的容忍程度也会影响媒体平台对广告商的定价,容忍程度越低,广告费用越高。     

Life in the tube

Douglas Rushkoff, author of Media Virus, Cyberia, and Playing the Future, explains how sensationalism in the media tends to promote our culture's natural, unexpressed agendas. This is an optimistic appraisal of the seemingly banal and exploitative fora of tabloid television, ‘Court TV’ and ‘Cops’. Such low-brow media, when approached from an evolutionary perspective, reveal themselves as the process by which closeted social issues are brought out into the cultural conversation exactly when they need to be.     

演化博弈视角下的绿色金融发展动力研究

中国在“十三五规划”中首次将“绿色”作为五大发展理念之一，中国绿色发展的一系列顶层设计和实践都在“十三五”期间获得迅速推进。近年来，中国绿色金融体系建设不断完善，绿色金融产品不断创新，绿色金融发展取得丰硕的成果。本文研究了政府、企业和银行三大利益主体的行为对绿色金融发展的影响。通过构建演化博弈模型，讨论政府是否实行补贴和惩罚对绿色金融发展演化稳定策略的影响，并通过MATLAB软件对博弈系统进行动态仿真。研究结果表明：在无政府干预的情况下，银行和企业初始决策选择的比例决定了演化博弈系统是否会收敛到理想状态，研究发现银行和企业在节能减排的过程具有良性互动效应；在政府干预的情况下，博弈系统的演化结果都倾向于理想状态，且演化速度也明显提高。最后，针对绿色金融发展的实际情况提出了相应的对策建议，以期为绿色金融的可持续发展提供参考。     

有限理性下的金融创新与金融监管博弈分析

金融创新与金融监管间的动态博弈关系一直是人们关注的焦点,尤其在这次美国次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机发生后,两者都饱受质疑。本文从有限理性的角度,运用进化博弈的方法,分别对金融机构间的对称博弈关系和金融机构与监管机构间的非对称博弈关系进行分析,得出长期均衡点,并对其进行分析,为我国的金融创新与金融监管实践提出一些政策建议。     

Critical accounting policy and estimate disclosures: Company response to the evolving SEC guidance

In late 2001, soon after numerous financial reporting failures including the much publicized demise of Enron, the SEC began a series of initiatives to improve critical accounting policy (CAP) and critical accounting estimate disclosures included within the MD&A section of Form 10-K. The first announcement, in the form of cautionary guidance, was issued in December 2001. This was followed by a Proposed Rule in 2002, and additional disclosure guidance near the end of 2003. Combined, the guidance required companies to provide information that would help investors understand the impact of estimates, accounting policies and external factors on financial results. Through 2007, the SEC continued to provide guidance as to the content of CAP disclosures in the MD&A.In this study, we assess the extent to which companies responded to the initial CAP guidance, and determine the extent to which company disclosures changed with additional SEC guidance by analyzing CAP disclosures included in the 2001 and 2003 10-K filings for 112 of the Mid-Cap 400 companies. Our findings indicate that most, but not all, sampled companies included 2001 CAP disclosures consistent with the cautionary advice. We find that the disclosure content increased from 2001 to 2003, and that the disclosure quality also increased. However, some items remained underdisclosed in 2003, indicating that even after a 2-year period in which the SEC continued to provide additional guidance and reviewed company CAP disclosures, companies were not fully disclosing content identified as important by the SEC, particularly when the guidance was included in the Proposed Rule.     

THE USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: SURVEY AND EXTENSIONS

This paper investigates the capabilities of social media, such as Facebook, Twitter, Delicious, Digg and others, for their current and potential impact on the supply chain. In particular, this paper examines the use of social media to capture the impact on supply‐chain events and develop a context for those events. This paper also analyses the use of social media in the supply chain to build relationships among supply‐chain participants. Further, this paper investigates the of use of user‐supplied tags as a basis of evaluating and extending an ontology for supply chains. In addition, using knowledge discovery from social media, a number of concepts related to the supply chain are examined, including supply‐chain reputation and influence within the supply chain. Prediction markets are analysed for their potential use in supply chains. Finally, this paper investigates the integration of traditional knowledge management along with knowledge generated from social media. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

When does analyst reputation matter? Evidence from analysts’ reliance on management guidance

We investigate the joint effects of analyst reputation, uncertainty and guidance news valence on analysts’ reliance on management guidance. We find that, compared to less reputable analysts, reputable analysts rely less on guidance when they issue earnings forecasts. This analyst reputation effect is stronger when earnings and information uncertainty are higher or when the guidance contains good news. Further analysis suggests that both reputable and less reputable analysts sacrifice their forecast accuracy when they rely less on guidance; however, reputable analysts are compensated to a greater extent by the increased informativeness of their forecasts. Finally, we find that analysts’ future career advancement is enhanced when their reliance is low.     

基于前景理论的PPP项目政企决策行为的演化博弈分析

本文以PPP项目中政府和私人企业的决策行为作为研究对象,基于前景理论,考虑PPP项目中政企合作双方决策时的有限理性状态,通过建立前景价值函数进而构建PPP项目合作中政企双方动态演化博弈模型。从演化博弈的视角分析政府和私人企业之间的策略选择和博弈行为。借助数值模拟,对不同参数和概率条件下政企决策行为展开路径分析,以期对政企双方在PPP项目中的决策提供有益的理论参考和借鉴。     

Information content and the contractual nature of hedging derivative incomes

In a sample of 87 banks representing 631 bank-years for the period 1996–2003, we examine whether information content of hedging derivative incomes is predicated on the contractual nature of the derivative. Of particular interest are the different abnormal trading volume reactions to incomes arising from executory contracts (i.e., cash flow and net investment hedges) and incomes arising from nonexecutory contracts (i.e., fair value hedges). We find a positive and significant relationship between two alternative measures of abnormal trading volume and incomes arising from cash flow and net investment hedges. The results are robust in an equity valuation framework. Our findings suggest that derivative incomes are informative, notably those incomes that are related to executory contracts. An implication for standard setters is that the complex rules for disaggregating incomes on hedging derivatives provide valuable information to the market.