Introduction: New directions in Information and Screening in Real Estate Finance

Conclusion The evidence presented in this special issue supports the view that preexisting information held by mortgage lenders plays an important role in mortgage approvals. This argues for mortgage lending programs that make efficient use of lender information, and it supports the importance of local financial intermediaries for lending. It also suggests that mortgage finance is an important element in turning transitory shocks into persistent ones that shape macroeconomic and regional business cycles.This Journal has from its inception, with the publication of a seminal article on information and incentives on mortgage contract terms by Dunn and Spart (1988), pushed forward the frontier of knowledge on information issues in real estate finance. This special issue presents empirical evidence on the importance of this aspect of mortgages.     

Current Wealth,Housing Purchase,and Private Housing Loan Demand in Japan

Japanese households accumulate wealth for down payments at a high rate. Therefore, current wealth plays an important role in home acquisition as well as public loans whose direct mortgage lending is a strong support for home purchasers. We estimate the wealth effect on private mortgage debt as well as housing consumption by applying a model where mortgage-debt demand is derived from house-purchase decisions and is determined jointly with housing consumption. We use a simultaneous equation Tobit estimation method. Wealth effects on private mortgage debt, likelihood of borrowing, and housing consumption are not elastic. On the other hand, a change in housing consumption affects the likelihood of borrowing elastically much more than the private mortgage amount of borrowers. Housing and private mortgage markets fluctuate very closely with the number of participants in the mortgage market. Therefore, the number of housing starts is linked strongly to the private mortgage market.     

The Economics of Low-Income Mortgage Lending

The presumption that mortgage markets for low-income borrowers and neighborhoods are underserved by lenders has led to a variety of increased government interventions on the supply side of the housing market. Although many studies of low-income lending at the neighborhood level have been published, none is from the firm's perspective. We adopt such a framework to test the twin propositions that the low-income mortgage market is no different from the non-low-income mortgage market and that the low-income mortgage market is underserved.We examine empirically whether the operating costs including credit losses, revenues, and profits of savings and loan institutions engaged in more low-income lending differ systematically from those that do less low-income lending. We find that firms engaged in more low-income mortgage lending have higher costs than those engaged in less low-income lending, which is consistent with higher credit risk for low-income loans. Nevertheless, these firms are no more profitable than those that do less low-income lending, which is inconsistent with a market for low-income mortgage lending that is currently underserved.     

Predatory lending and the subprime crisis

We measure the effect of a 2006 antipredatory pilot program in Chicago on mortgage default rates to test whether predatory lending was a key element in fueling the subprime crisis. Under the program, risky borrowers or risky mortgage contracts or both triggered review sessions by housing counselors who shared their findings with the state regulator. The pilot program cut market activity in half, largely through the exit of lenders specializing in risky loans and through a decline in the share of subprime borrowers. Our results suggest that predatory lending practices contributed to high mortgage default rates among subprime borrowers, raising them by about a third.     

Are Commercial Mortgage Defaults Affected by Tax Considerations?

We study whether tax considerations are an important determinant of commercial mortgage default. We also study whether large lenders are better informed, or better at interpreting information for lending purposes, and hence have lower foreclosure rates; whether lenders have more information on larger borrowers than smaller borrowers, and hence have lower foreclosure rates on larger loans; and whether commercial mortgage defaults are related to debt service coverage and loan-to-values, both initial and contemporaneous. The paper’s main findings are fourfold. First, holding all else equal, there is evidence that tax considerations influence investors’ decisions about when to “put” assets to lenders. The results are consistent with the argument of Constantinides (J Financ Econ 13:65–89, 1984). Second, the evidence suggests that large lenders are especially knowledgeable about commercial mortgage borrowers and commercial property markets, in that they have lower foreclosure rates than smaller lenders. Third, on the question of whether lenders have more information on larger borrowers than smaller borrowers, we find that larger loans have, on average, lower default rates than smaller loans. Fourth, the findings suggest that lower default rates are associated with higher debt service coverage ratios, both initial and contemporaneous.     

Borrower Self-Selection,Underwriting Costs,and Subprime Mortgage Credit Supply

In the U.S., households participate in two very different types of credit markets. Personal lending is characterized by continuous risk-based pricing in which lenders offer households a continuous distribution of borrowing possibilities based on estimates of their creditworthiness. This contrasts sharply with mortgage markets where lenders specialize in specific risk categories of borrowers and mortgage supply is stepwise linear. The contrast between continuous lending for personal loans and discrete lending by specialized lenders for mortgage credit has led to concerns regarding the efficiency and equity of mortgage lending. This paper sheds both theoretical and empirical light on the differences in the two credit markets. The theory section demonstrates why, in a perfectly competitive credit market where all lenders have the same underwriting technology, mortgage credit supply curves are stepwise linear and lenders specialize in prime or subprime lending. The empirical section then provides evidence that borrowers are being effectively sorted based on risk characteristics by the market.     

The Neighborhood Distribution of Subprime Mortgage Lending

Subprime lending in the residential mortgage market, characterized by relatively high credit risk and interest rates or fees, has developed over the past decade into a prominent segment of the market (Temkin, 2000). Recent research indicates that there is geographical concentration of subprime mortgages in Census tracts where there are high concentrations of low-income and minority households. The growth in subprime lending represents an expansion in the supply of mortgage credit among households who do not meet prime market underwriting standards. Nonetheless, its apparent concentration in minority and lower income neighborhoods has generated concerns that these households may not be obtaining equal opportunity in the prime mortgage market. Such lending may undermine revitalization to the extent that it is associated with so-called predatory practices.     

National culture and housing credit

Using a sample of around 30 countries over the period 2001–2015, this study provides evidence that deeply rooted cultural differences are significantly associated with the use of mortgage debt. More detailed, we find that power distance and uncertainty avoidance have a negative impact on the value of the total outstanding residential loans to GDP. This finding is robust across various specifications and the use of alternative measures of mortgage debt. In contrast, trust has a positive and robust impact on all the measures of mortgage debt. Other dimensions of national culture like long-term orientation, individualism, and indulgence, also appear to matter; however, their impact depends on the control variables and the employed measure of mortgage debt.     

Risk versus Demographics in Subprime Mortgage Lending: Evidence from Three Connecticut Cities

This paper analyzes patterns in subprime residential mortgage lending using 2006 Home Mortgage Act Disclosure data for the cities of Bridgeport, New Haven and Waterbury, Connecticut. The analysis applies models presented in earlier research and has the objective of assessing the relative importance of demographic versus risk factors in subprime mortgage lending decisions. Regression equations are estimated for census tracts and individual borrowers and include demographic variables and property risk measures. The results find race and ethnicity to be significant determinants of subprime lending in the borrower equations that include the full set of risk measures. Neighborhood educational levels are found to have an inverse and often significant association with subprime mortgage loans. Property risk measures present mixed results regarding their significance in subprime lending, suggesting that risk may have played less of a role in loan originations in 2006 than it did in earlier studies.     

Regulation of Subprime Mortgage Products: An Analysis of North Carolina's Predatory Lending Law

This paper estimates the effect of North Carolina's high-cost mortgage law on the subprime mortgage market in that state. The results indicate that creditors sharply restricted lending to higher risk consumers in North Carolina following passage of the law. Creditors did not restrict lending in neighboring states or to lower risk consumers in North Carolina. These results suggest that the restriction in North Carolina was due to rationing in response to higher costs imposed by the law. The findings of this study are of importance beyond North Carolina. Other states and municipalities have proposed or passed similar or more restrictive laws. These laws risk taking back some of the gains in credit availability that lower income and higher risk consumers gained in the 1990s.     

Discrimination in Mortgage Lending: A Critical Review of the Literature

This article surveys the diverse research that examines racial disparities in mortgage lending markets in the context of the fair housing legislation of recent decades. A review of the theoretical models, data, and empirical methods reveals deficiencies in all three areas. A new research agenda focusing on development of more complete models of mortgage lending together with panel data tracking mortgage loan performance over time is needed.     

Economic Consequences of Transparency Regulation: Evidence from Bank Mortgage Lending

We examine the economic consequences of a rule designed to improve consumers' understanding of mortgage information. The 2015 TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosures rule (TRID) simplifies the mortgage disclosures provided to consumers. As a consequence, TRID-affected mortgages become a less attractive investment opportunity to banks. Our main results document that mortgage applications affected by TRID are less likely to be approved following the rule's effective date. We find evidence consistent with both a decrease in consumers' information processing costs and an increase in banks' secondary market frictions, providing insight into the potential channels through which this reduction in mortgage credit operates. We also find that banks partially compensate for reduced mortgage lending by increasing small business lending, and that fintechs absorb mortgage demand in areas with reduced mortgage lending by banks. Our study documents real actions that firms take in response to disclosure transparency regulation and contributes to the literature on the economic consequences of such regulation.     

A Comparison of Unexplained Racial Disparities in Bank-Level and Market-Level Models of Mortgage Lending

Statistical models of mortgage lending have been used by both academics and regulators to assess the importance of racial discrimination in lending decisions. Models estimated by bank regulators are specified at a bank level, allowing regulators to focus on possible disparate treatment discrimination against minorities. In contrast, the academic literature has tended to estimate models combining data across many banks. We argue that the market-level approach uses a mis-specified model whose estimates do not clearly measure any well-defined concept of discrimination. Using data from eight banks, we find important differences between bank-level and market-level models, with market-level models producing larger estimated racial effects than bank-level models.     

Characterizing desired futures of Canadian communities

In sustainability research and practice, one method widely used in exploration is visioning, in which desirable sustainable futures are articulated and explored in depth. Communities across Canada have used this method to develop collective desirable futures, in many cases to provide an end goal for local sustainable development. In this paper, we conduct a meta­-analysis of desired futures created by communities across Canada with the aim of identifying regional commonalities according to the three pillars of sustainability, social, environmental, and economic. Although sustainability demands a balance between its social, economic and environmental components, Canadians futures apparently place the greatest importance on social aspects with 338 desires against 222 and 230 respectively for economic and environmental sustainability. Community (105); Infrastructure, development, and transportation (126); and Natural environment (157) are the categories most frequently recorded within each of the three components of sustainability. The meta­analysis also noted significant differences amongst regions. The study was conducted in the context of an initiative known as the Sustainable Canada Dialogues that mobilized 60+ scholars from across the country around a consensus on science ­based, viable solutions for greenhouse gas reduction. Our results suggest that climate policy that simultaneously reduces greenhouse gas emissions while enhancing some of the key aspects of social sustainability would be attractive to many Canadians.     

SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON THE USE OF FINANCIAL LEASES

In this paper, the impact of certain firm-specific factors on the level of financial leases used by corporations is examined. An industry analysis indicates that firms in certain industries tend to lease more than other firms. A Tobit analysis of the degree to which approximately 600 firms lease assets indicates that certain factors—including the debt ratio, presence of mortgage debt, level of subordinated debt, presence of restrictions on leasing, number of bonds in a firm's capital structure, and the firm's debt rating—are significantly related to the degree of leasing. Other factors, including the firm's tax rate, were not found to be significant, contrary to popular expectations.     

The impact of CRA agreements on community banks

We develop three empirical models to identify the impact of Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) agreements on the mortgage lending behavior of small banking institutions during the period 1990–1997. CRA agreements are pledges banking institutions make to extend levels of credit to targeted populations and are often used by institutions to reaffirm their commitment to the goals of the CRA. We hypothesize that CRA agreements increase the level of competition for mortgage loans in the targeted area, which in turn causes a reduction in the quantity of mortgage credit to be supplied by community banks. Consistent with the quantity hypothesis, the results show that CRA agreements are associated with less mortgage lending, including lending in lower-income communities (CRA lending) and in minority communities (minority lending), by small community lenders. Evidence does not support a second hypothesis – that community banks respond to the increased competition by providing credit to riskier individuals.     

Simultaneity bias in mortgage lending: A test of simultaneous equations models on bank-specific data

This study uses simultaneous equations models and single-equation models to test for simultaneity bias in mortgage refinance data compiled by a regional bank. The purpose of the study is to assess the claim that single-equation models of the lending decision produce biased and inconsistent parameter estimates of endogenous mortgage terms. Bank-specific data are analyzed to avoid bias resulting from uncontrolled policy, training, or underwriting differences across banks. Importantly, the data contain all variables the regional bank identified as important factors in explaining its loan disposition results. After controlling for applicants' debt, income, credit history, and requested loan term, I find that the race coefficient in single-equation models is biased upward, while the loan-to-value ratio coefficient is biased downward, although both biases are insignificant. Overall, the results suggest that simultaneous equations models are preferable to single-equation models in tests for discrimination, and can be used to determine the extent of race coefficient and loan-to-value ratio coefficient bias in single-equation models.     

The Economic Effects of Legal Restrictions on High-Cost Mortgages

We analyze the effects of state predatory mortgage lending laws, which have been a model for recent changes in the United States federal legislation enacted to regulate the mortgage contract terms common in higher-risk mortgage market segments. Using the Rothschild-Stiglitz approach to model credit markets under asymmetric information, legal restrictions are shown to reduce the use and attractiveness of mortgage credit. Consistent with model predictions, empirical results indicate that originations of regulated high-cost mortgages were significantly less than predicted in states with more restrictive laws. The differences between predicted and actual originations of high-cost mortgages in states with less restrictive laws were not significant. These differences were also not significant for non-high-cost originations across all states. Thus, credit regulation was differentially associated with reduction in originations of high-cost mortgages, and non-high-cost lending did not consistently expand in areas where high-cost mortgages were restricted.     

Home mortgage debt financing of nonhousing investments

Home mortgage debt is decomposed into a component that represents debt demand, derived from housing demand and a residual excess demand. This excess demand derives principally from the demand for nonhousing assets. An empirical model of the determinants of the demand for excess debt is specified and estimated using databases from the 1983 and 1986 Surveys of Consumer Finance. The estimations focus on evidence of linkages between debt demand and household preferences for illiquid risky assets, and on the substitutability of personal debt for mortgage debt. Positive linkages are found between household choices of investments in vacation homes, investment real estate, and closely held business and the demand for excess debt. However, personal debt and mortgage debt appear to have largely separate financing roles.     

Determinants of Mortgage Default and Consumer Credit Use: The Effects of Foreclosure Laws and Foreclosure Delays

The mortgage default decision is part of a complex household credit management problem. We examine how factors affecting mortgage default spill over to other credit markets. As home equity turns negative, homeowners default on mortgages and home equity lines of credit at higher rates, whereas they prioritize repaying credit cards and auto loans. Larger unused credit card limits intensify the preservation of credit cards over housing debt. Although mortgage nonrecourse statutes increase default on all types of housing debt, they reduce credit card defaults. Foreclosure delays increase default rates for housing and nonhousing debts. Our analysis highlights the interconnectedness of debt repayment decisions.