Disclosure Practices, Enforcement of Accounting Standards, and Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: An International Study

Using a sample from 22 countries, I investigate the relations between the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts and the level of annual report disclosure, and between forecast accuracy and the degree of enforcement of accounting standards. I document that firm‐level disclosures are positively related to forecast accuracy, suggesting that such disclosures provide useful information to analysts. I construct a comprehensive measure of enforcement and find that strong enforcement is associated with higher forecast accuracy. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that enforcement encourages managers to follow prescribed accounting rules, which, in turn, reduces analysts' uncertainty about future earnings. I also find evidence consistent with disclosures being more important when analyst following is low and with enforcement being more important when more choice among accounting methods is allowed.     

Low-carbon city initiatives and analyst behaviour: A quasi-natural experiment

This paper investigates how environmental regulation and action affect analyst behaviour. Exploiting staggered enactment of low carbon city (LCC) initiatives in a difference-in-differences (DiD) setting, we observe that analyst forecast accuracy (dispersion) is significantly lower (greater) for client firms headquartered in cities covered by the LCC pilot programme, especially among firms with a low-quality information environment. The LCC effort affects analyst behaviour via increased firm risk and reduced earnings predictability, causing enhanced site visits and coverage. The results are stronger in cities with more rigorous enforcement and regulation intensity, for private firms with high business complexity and in heavily polluting industries. Results are robust to DiD models with entropy balancing matching, placebo tests, parallel trend tests, and a battery of fixed effects. Collectively, they reveal that environmental regulation has real impacts on analyst forecast behaviour.     

Does corporate governance transparency affect the accuracy of analyst forecasts?

Using country‐level proxies for corporate governance transparency, this paper investigates how differences in transparency across 21 countries affect the average forecast accuracy of analysts for the country's firms. The association between financial transparency and analyst forecast accuracy has been well documented in previous published literature; however, the association between governance transparency and analyst forecast accuracy remains unexplored. Using the two distinct country‐level factors isolated by Bushman et al. (2004 ), governance transparency and financial transparency, we investigate whether corporate governance information impacts on the accuracy of earnings forecasts over and above financial information. We document that governance transparency is positively associated with analyst forecast accuracy after controlling for financial transparency and other variables. Furthermore, our results suggest that governance‐related disclosure plays a bigger role in improving the information environment when financial disclosures are less transparent. Our empirical evidence also suggests that the significance of governance transparency on analyst forecast accuracy is higher when legal enforcement is weak.     

Are analyst stock recommendation revisions more informative in the post‐IFRS period?

This paper investigates whether the mandatory IFRS adoption has affected the informativeness of analyst recommendation revisions in Europe. Although prior studies document that IFRS adoption improved analyst forecast attributes, the impact of IFRS cannot be completely assessed without examining how the market reacts to information‐rich events in an environment with enhanced disclosure. To examine this question we utilize a difference‐in‐differences design using as main control sample firms that had voluntarily adopted IFRS before the EU's mandated switch. Overall, our evidence suggests that after the mandatory adoption of IFRS, both analyst upgrades and downgrades are more informative. These results hold after controlling for a number of variables that capture analyst, firm and information environment characteristics and are robust to a number of sensitivity analyses including the use of a US control sample. Finally, we examine whether our results are sensitive to the level of accounting enforcement. We find that analyst downgrades are more informative in the post‐IFRS period for firms in both high and low enforcement environments. Analyst upgrades, however, are more informative only if they are issued for firms in high enforcement countries.     

Regulation and stock market quality: The impact of MiFID II provision on research unbundling

This paper investigates the effects produced by the unbundling of analyst research costs required by MiFID II on market quality, as measured by stock liquidity and price efficiency. We find that the payment of an explicit price for research is associated with a reduction in analyst coverage in the EU. Unexpectedly, the reduction is stronger for large-cap stocks. For mid- and large-cap stocks analyst coverage in the EU is still greater than in the US. The reduction in analyst coverage observed in the EU is part of a downward trend that initiated prior to MiFID II and contributes to close the gap between the two regions. We also find no change in the bid-ask spread for small-, mid- and large-cap stocks, and a slight increase for micro-cap stocks. We observe no significant change in price efficiency. Taken together our findings seem to suggest that there was an overproduction of research in Europe with the previous regulatory regime. However, the growth of passive management and index funds may also explain the observed decrease in coverage.     

Insider Trading Restrictions and Analysts' Incentives to Follow Firms

Motivated by extant finance theory predicting that insider trading crowds out private information acquisition by outsiders, we use data for 100 countries for the years 1987–2000 to study whether analyst following in a country increases following restriction of insider trading activities. We document that analyst following increases after initial enforcement of insider trading laws. This increase is concentrated in emerging market countries, but is smaller if the country has previously liberalized its capital market. We also find that analyst following responds less intensely to initial enforcement when a country has a preexisting portfolio of strong investor protections.     

非财务信息披露与分析师预测——基于深市上市企业社会责任报告的实证检验

以深市上市企业披露的社会责任报告作为非财务信息的替代变量,实证检验了非财务信息披露质量与分析师盈利预测的关系。多元回归分析结果表明,企业社会责任报告披露质量越好,其分析师盈利预测越精确,并且在财务透明度低的企业中,这种正向关系更显著。这说明社会责任报告披露的这类非财务信息对分析师预测不仅具有信息含量,而且能够通过对财务信息的补充作用,缓解财务不透明对分析师预测精度的不利后果。     

ADRs,Analysts, and Accuracy: Does Cross Listing in the United States Improve a Firm's Information Environment and Increase Market Value?

This paper investigates the relation between cross listing in the United States and the information environment of non‐U.S. firms. We find that firms that cross list on U.S. exchanges have greater analyst coverage and increased forecast accuracy than firms that are not cross listed. A time‐series analysis shows that a change in analyst coverage and forecast accuracy occurs around cross listing. We also document that firms that have more analyst coverage and higher forecast accuracy have higher valuations. Furthermore, the change in firm value around cross listing is correlated with changes in analyst following and forecast accuracy, suggesting that cross listing enhances firm value through its effect on the firm's information environment. Our findings support the hypothesis that cross‐listed firms have better information environments, which are associated with higher market valuations.     

Mandatory IFRS adoption: the trade-off between accrual-based and real earnings management

This paper examines whether firms substituted real earnings management for accrual-based earnings management after the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) became mandatory. Using a sample of 101,331 firm-year observations from 33 countries between 2000 and 2010, we show that IFRS adoption came with the unintended consequence of certain firms substituting real earnings management for accrual-based earnings management, especially among firms in countries with strict enforcement regimes. Furthermore, we document that the trade-off is confined to EU countries in which strong firm-level characteristics (i.e. the firm-level mechanism of control, the market’s level of scrutiny, and firm-specific incentives to provide transparency) are coupled with strong enforcement. We also show that IFRS had an effect in countries outside the EU, albeit at a different time. Overall, the results suggest that accounting regulators’ efforts to increase earnings quality might have had the unintended consequence of increasing real earnings management activities.     

The Effects of Disclosure and Analyst Regulations on the Relevance of Analyst Characteristics for Explaining Analyst Forecast Accuracy

We posit and find an effect of disclosure and analyst reporting regulations implemented from 2000 through 2003 (including Regulation Fair Disclosure, the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act and the Global Settlement Act) on the importance of analyst and forecast characteristics for analyst forecast accuracy. Following the enactment of these regulations, more experienced analysts and All‐Star analysts do not maintain their superior forecast accuracy, and analysts employed by large brokerage houses perform worse than other analysts. In addition, we find a decrease in the importance of analyst effort, the number of industries and firms followed, days elapsed since the last forecast, and forecast horizon. While the importance of bold upward forecast revisions does not change, bold downward revisions lose their relevance for forecast accuracy after 2003. Finally, we find an increase in the importance of prior forecast accuracy. We find that the importance of these characteristics varies with the precision of publicly available information. Specifically, the decrease in the importance of most analyst and forecast characteristics and the increase in the importance of prior forecast accuracy are greater when the precision of publicly available information is low. Overall, our results suggest that the positive effects of experience, effort, brokerage house size and All‐Star status on forecast accuracy in the pre‐regulation period were because of the information advantages that these analysts enjoyed (rather than their ability to generate private information). In contrast, our results suggest that prior forecast accuracy is related to analysts’ ability to generate private information.     

The brain gain of CFOs in China: The case of analyst forecasts

We study the impact of CFOs with foreign experience on analysts' forecast accuracy in emerging markets. Using a unique data set from China, we find that analysts' forecast accuracy increases when firms hire CFOs with foreign experience, confirming the brain gain effect of CFOs. Our results are robust after addressing potential endogeneity by introducing the propensity score matched (PSM) procedure and Heckman two-stage method. Channel analyses show that CFOs with foreign experience are related to decreased earnings management and a greater probability of hiring high-quality auditors, indicating that the improvement in financial reporting quality and information environment brought by returnee CFOs mainly drive our results. Further cross-section tests reveal that compared to firms with more external pressure, the positive effect of returnee CFOs on analysts' forecast accuracy is more pronounced among firms with fewer analyst coverage and belonging to less competitive industries. Returnee CFOs with foreign work experience exert a more significant impact on analysts' forecast accuracy than those with foreign study experience. Overall, we provide the first evidence on the brain gain of CFOs in terms of analyst forecasts.     

The effect of repeat restructuring charges on analysts’ forecast revisions and accuracy

The primary objective of this study is to examine the effect of prior restructuring charges on analyst forecast revisions and accuracy. We find evidence that analysts respond differently to first-time restructuring firms than to repeat restructuring firms. Analysts revise their forecasts of both one-year-ahead earnings and five-year long-term growth in earnings more negatively for first-time restructuring firms than for firms with prior charges. When we examine forecast errors in the year subsequent to the restructuring, we find that current charges complicate analysts’ earnings forecast task. We further find that the decline in analyst forecast accuracy is mitigated by prior charges within past two years.     

The ASC 606 standard,revenue informativeness,and analysts forecast quality

We examine the adoption effect of ASC 606 on revenue informativeness, analyst forecast dispersion, and forecast errors. We find that the adoption of ASC 606 is associated with increases in revenue informativeness but decreases in analyst forecast accuracy and consensus. Such adoption effects are mainly temporary and focused in firms that are more affected by the new standard. Last, we find that firms using the full retrospective adoption method are associated with higher revenue informativeness and lower analyst forecast error than firms using the modified retrospective method.     

The supply of analysts and earnings forecasts

Using a unique set of hand-collected data, this study examines whether a larger supply of prospective analysts leads to existing financial analysts' higher earnings forecast accuracy. We analyze the effect of the analyst supply proxied by the number of universities and the number of finance and economics universities located in the same city as the headquarters of brokerage firms. Our findings suggest that brokerage firms located closer to a larger supply of potential analyst candidates are associated with higher analyst forecast accuracy, as observed by a lower forecast error. We further find that the degree of employed analysts' effort acts as a mediator between the supply of prospective analysts and the accuracy of their earnings forecasts.     

Analyst Firm Coverage and Forecast Accuracy: The Effect of Regulation Fair Disclosure

In this study, we revisit the relationship between analyst firm coverage and forecast accuracy. In contrast to the proposed negative association in Clement (1999) owing to the portfolio complexity effect, we hypothesize an ‘economy‐of‐scale effect’ that is likely to dominate when analysts rely mostly on public information. In support of the latter effect, we find a positive association between firm coverage and forecast accuracy after the enactment of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD), which substantially reduces the flow of material private information to analysts. Such a result survives a battery of robustness analyses. We further show that, in the post‐Reg FD period, covering more firms increases an analyst's probability of being selected as a star analyst in the subsequent year. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of the information environment in shaping the economic link between an analyst's firm coverage and forecast accuracy.     

Product market competition and analyst forecasting activity: International evidence

In this study, we investigate how product market competition affects the extent of analyst following and the properties of analyst forecasts. Using a broad sample of firms from 37 countries over the 1990–2008 period, we find that firms that operate in more concentrated industries and with stronger pricing power are associated with greater analyst following, higher forecast accuracy, and lower forecast dispersion. Moreover, the effect of product market power on analyst following and forecast properties is more pronounced in countries with less effective competition laws and higher entry costs. These findings suggest that high industry concentration and a dominant market position enhance the earnings predictability of firms and lower their information uncertainty, and that country-level institutions that promote competition effectively constrain the power in product markets.     

The effect of consistency in book-tax differences on analysts’ earnings forecasts: Evidence from forecast accuracy and informativeness

This study examines the relationship between the consistency of book-tax differences and the quality of analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find that the consistency of book-tax differences is associated with more accurate and informative forecasts. This suggests that the information embedded in the consistency of book-tax differences plays an important role in elevating the quality of analysts’ forecasts. Furthermore, the effect of consistency in book-tax differences on analyst forecast quality is greater for firms with noisier information environment. Finally, we find that the relation between consistency in book-tax differences and improvements in forecast accuracy and informativeness is stronger after the implementation of Regulation Fair Disclosure, which increased the role of public information in analysts’ forecasts.     

The Impact of IAS/IFRS on Polish Accounting Regulations and their Practical Implementation in Poland

Abstract

In the face of the globalization process that we have witnessed over recent years, the European Union (EU) decided that it is crucial to improve the competitiveness of Europe and the development of financial services and capital markets through enforcement of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as a basis of financial reporting of listed companies. Poland as a member of the EU was obliged to incorporate International Accounting Standards (IAS)/IFRS in national accounting regulations. Our paper discusses this issue. We also present the impact of IAS/IFRS implementation by Polish companies on their financial statements, particularly the impact on income and equity (capital). The presentation is the result of the review and analysis of 255 financial reports (including 171 consolidated) of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.     

卖空者与内幕交易——来自中国证券市场的证据

本文研究上市公司内部人减持、年报、诉讼、分析师评级、停复牌以及高送转等重大公告前后卖空交易行为的变化,系统考察卖空者是否参与内幕交易以及何种因素影响卖空者参与内幕交易,发现卖空率较高的股票具有较低的未来收益,表明卖空者拥有信息优势,属知情交易者;卖空者拥有非常精确的择时交易能力,在重大利空公告前显著增加卖空量,而在利好公告前则显著减少卖空头寸,表明卖空者作为知情交易者的信息优势源自内幕消息;公司内、外部投资者的信息不对称程度越低或公司所在地的法治水平越高,卖空者参与内幕交易的行为就越少。因此,监管机构应密切关注公司重大消息发布前后卖空量的异常变动,同时,完善信息披露规则、健全证券分析师制度并强化法律法规的执行力度,才能有效防范卖空者参与内幕交易。     

董事会报告可读性、制度环境与分析师预测——来自我国上市公司的经验证据

依据2007-2016年中国上市公司数据,考量上市公司董事会报告可读性、制度环境对证券分析师盈利预测表现的影响。结果发现：董事会报告可读性越好,分析师预测越准确,分析师预测的分歧度也越小;考虑宏观制度环境的影响,上市公司所处地区的制度环境越好,分析师盈利预测的准确度越高,分歧度越小,受到董事会报告可读性的影响越少。鉴此,应完善公司非财务信息披露和外部制度环境,从而提高分析师预测准确性,促进资源有效配置。