Trader Anonymity, Price Formation and Liquidity

Using data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange we analyze priceformation and liquidity in a non-anonymous environment withsimilarities to the floor of the NYSE. Our main hypothesis isthat the non-anonymity allows the specialist to assess the probabilitythat a trader trades on the basis of private information. Heuses this knowledge to price discriminate. This can be achievedby quoting a large spread and granting price improvement totraders deemed uninformed. Consistent with our hypothesis wefind that price improvement reflects lower adverse selectioncosts but does not lead to a reduction in the specialist's profit.Further, the quote adjustment following transactions at thequoted bid or ask price is more pronounced than the quote adjustmentafter transactions at prices inside the spread. Our resultsindicate that anonymity comes at the cost of higher adverseselection risk. JEL Classification: G10.     

Quote setting and price formation in an order driven market

This paper models quote setting and price formation in a non-intermediated, order driven market where trading occurs because investors differ in their share valuations and the advent of news that is not common knowledge, and tests the model using transaction data on individual stocks in the ParisBourse CAC40 index. As an extension of Foucault (1999), we show that the size of the spread is a function of the differences in valuation among investors and of adverse selection. Both GMM estimation of the model parameters and empirical evidence on spread behavior as the relative proportion of buyers and sellers in the market changes, provide strong support for the model. Our analysis yields further insight into the dynamic process of price formation and into the market clearing process in an order driven market.     

A functional approach to the price impact of stock trades and the implied true price

We propose a functional approach to estimate the instantaneous price impact of a trade and to infer an implied true price. Our model expresses price impact as an S-shaped function of signed volume. It has two parameters, one for price impact and one for liquidity depth. The latter measures the differential impact of small and large trades. The price impact is instantaneous, that is, it occurs at the instant of trade execution. Our specification also permits the price impact of buys and sells to be asymmetric. We compute an implied true price from our model, and we find that it is closer than the quote midpoint to the unobservable true price. Our empirical analysis also shows that the effective spread, which is computed using the midpoint, has an upward bias, and that the implicit transaction costs may be lower than previous estimates.     

Impacts of trades in an error-correction model of quote prices

In this paper we analyze and interpret the quote price dynamics of 100 NYSE stocks stratified by trade frequency. We specify an error-correction model for the log difference of the bid and the ask price with the spread acting as the error-correction term, and include as regressors the characteristics of the trades occurring between quote observations, if any. From this model we are also able to extract the implied model for the spread and the mid-quote. We find that short duration and medium volume trades have the largest impacts on quote prices for all one hundred stocks. Further, we find that buys have a greater impact on the ask price than on the bid price, while sells have a greater impact on the bid price than on the ask price. Both buys and sells increase spreads in the short run, but in the absence of further trades, the spreads mean revert. Trades have a greater impact on quotes for the infrequently traded stocks than for the more actively traded stocks.     

The optimal bid-ask price strategies of high-frequency trading and the effect on market liquidity

We propose a model for determining the optimal bid-ask spread strategy by a high-frequency trader (HFT) who has an informational advantage and receives information about the true value of a security. We employ an information cost function that includes volatility and the volume of the asset. Subsequently, we characterize the optimal bid-ask price strategies and obtain a stable bid-ask spread. We assume that orders submitted by low-frequency traders (LFTs) and news events arrive at the market with Poisson processes. Additionally, our model supports the trading of the two-sided quote in one period. We find that more LFTs and a higher exchange latency both hurt market liquidity. The HFT prefers to choose a two-sided quote to gain more profits while cautiously chooses a one-sided quote during times of high volatility. The model generates some testable implications with supporting empirical evidence from the NASDAQ-OMX Nordic Market.     

Specialists,Limit‐Order Traders,and the Components of the Bid‐Ask Spread

This study compares the components of the bid‐ask spread estimated from quotes that reflect the trading interest of specialists with those estimated from limit‐order quotes and all available quotes for a sample of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stocks. The results show that the adverse selection component of the spread estimated from specialist quotes is significantly smaller than the corresponding figures from limit‐order quotes and entire quotes. We interpret this as evidence that NYSE specialists transfer at least a part of adverse selection costs to outsiders through the discretionary use of limit orders. Our results show that the estimation/interpretation of the components of the spread using quote data that include both specialist and limit‐order interests is problematic.     

Price impact and bursts in liquidity provision

This paper analyses brief episodes of high-intensity quote turnover and revision—‘bursts’ in quotes—in the US equity market. Such events occur very frequently, several hundred times a day for actively traded stocks. We find significant price impact associated with these market maker initiated events, about five times higher than during non-burst periods. Bursts in quotes are concurrent with short-lived structural breaks in the informational relationship between market makers and market takers. During bursts, market makers no longer passively impound information from order flow into quotes—a departure from the traditional market microstructure paradigm. Rather, market makers significantly impact prices during bursts in quotes. Further analysis shows that there is asymmetry in adverse selection between the bid and ask sides of the limit order book and only a sub-population of market makers enjoys an informational advantage during bursts. Market makers on the side opposite the burst suffer elevated adverse selection costs, while market makers on the side of the burst realize positive spread, irrespective of the order flow direction. Our results call attention to the need for a new microstructure perspective in understanding modern high-frequency limit order book markets and the quote manipulation strategies at the disposal of the fast market makers.     

Does internalization diminish the impact of quote aggressiveness on dealer market share?

We analyze data provided by NASDAQ to examine how quote aggressiveness affects dealer market share and whether the practice of internalization mitigates the impact of quote aggressiveness. Our empirical results show that although internalization does not reduce the impact of price aggressiveness on dealer market share, it mitigates the impact of size aggressiveness. This result suggests that although internalization may not affect the dealer's incentive to post aggressive prices, it may reduce the incentive to post large depths. We find that aggressive quotes are more effective in raising dealer market share in stocks with a less competitive (more concentrated) market structure. Our results also show that the effective spread is wider (narrower) for stocks with a smaller price (size) elasticity of dealer market share.     

Stock price synchronicity and liquidity

We argue and provide evidence that stock price synchronicity affects stock liquidity. Under the relative synchronicity hypothesis, higher return co-movement (i.e., higher systematic volatility relative to total volatility) improves liquidity. Under the absolute synchronicity hypothesis, stocks with higher systematic volatility or beta are more liquid. Our results support both hypotheses. We find all three illiquidity measures (effective proportional bid-ask spread, price impact measure, and Amihud's illiquidity measure) are negatively related to stock return co-movement and systematic volatility. Our analysis also shows that larger industry-wide component in returns improves liquidity. We find that improvement in liquidity following additions to the S&P 500 Index is related to the stock's increase in return co-movement.     

The specialist's discretion: stopped orders and price improvement

When a market order arrives, the NYSE specialist can offer aprice one tick better than the limit orders on the book andtrade for his own account. Alternatively, the specialist can'stop' the market order, which means he guarantees executionat the current quote but provides the possibility of price improvement.My model shows that specialists can use stops to sample thefuture order flow before making a commitment to trade. I presentempirical evidence that both stops and immediate price improvementimpose adverse selection costs on limit order traders.     

Market Quote and Spread Component Cost Behavior Around Trading Halts for Stocks Interlisted on the Montreal and Toronto Stock Exchanges

We use intraday quotes and transactions on halted securities that interlisted on the Toronto Stock Exchange and Montreal Exchange to decompose the spreads and examine quote depths. Our results show that order‐processing costs differ for trading halts at the open compared to halts during the rest of the trading day. We find that the adverse‐selection cost component of the spread is higher around trading halts and highest at the trading halt. We also find that print‐media articles that appear within the four‐day window centered on the halt have no impact on the time‐series behavior of the spread cost.     

Information-Based Trading and Price Improvement

Abstract:  In this study we test the information hypothesis of price improvement. Our results show that price improvement is negatively related to both the probability of information-based trading and the price impact of trades. We interpret these results as evidence that liquidity providers selectively offer price improvements according to the information content of trades. We also show that liquidity providers offer greater (and more frequent) price improvements when they are at the NBBO, and for stocks with wider spreads, fewer trades, or smaller trade sizes relative to the quoted depth. Buyer-initiated trades receive smaller (larger) price improvements than seller-initiated trades on the NYSE (NASDAQ).     

Explaining the intra-day variation in the bid–ask spread in competitive dealership markets – A research note

There are many possible explanations for variation in the inside bid–ask spread during the trading day, including informed trading, price inelastic market demand, price discovery, statistical artefact and market concentration. Each of these explanations is examined for consistency with respect to both the inside and average bid–ask spread, observed both inside and outside the mandatory quote period in the London Stock Exchange.     

When spread bites fast – Volatility and wide bid-ask spread in a mixed high-frequency and low-frequency environment

This research focuses on the impact High-Frequency Trading has on price volatility when bid-ask spread is wide. The theoretical part introduces a set of equations and presents an Agent Based Model implemented via a computer-based simulation. The wide spread leads to the appearance of unusual phenomena caused by the relative speed difference between the fast and slow traders. The latter agents tend to quote limit orders that look irrational, as they are distant more than one tick from the top-of-book. The same relative speed difference causes slow traders to post market orders that execute at price worse than originally intended. Both these abnormal orders tend to increase local volatility. Other results found by the simulation are an increase in global volatility (computed both as the difference of maximum less minimum price and as standard deviation of price distribution) and in volatility at sub-second timescales. These occurrences penalise slower traders and affect market stability. All the results are consistent both under quiet and stressed market conditions. The results found are then compared with audit trail data to verify the soundness of theory against practice.     

Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades

This paper suggests that the interactions of security trades and quote revisions be modeled as a vector autoregressive system. Within this framework, a trade's information effect may be meaningfully measured as the ultimate price impact of the trade innovation. Estimates for a sample of NYSE issues suggest: a trade's full price impact arrives only with a protracted lag; the impact is a positive and concave function of the trade size; large trades cause the spread to widen; trades occurring in the face of wide spreads have larger price impacts; and, information asymmetries are more significant for smaller firms.     

Adverse selection costs,trading activity and price discovery in the NYSE: An empirical analysis

This paper studies the role that trading activity plays in the price discovery process of a NYSE-listed stock. We measure the expected information content of each trade by estimating its permanent price impact. It depends on observable trade features and market conditions. We also estimate the time required for quotes to incorporate all the information content of a particular trade. Our results show that price discovery is faster after risky trades and also at the extreme intervals of the session. The quote adjustment to trade-related shocks is progressive and this causes risk persistency and unusual short-term market conditions.     

The role of trades in price convergence: A study of dual-listed Canadian stocks

We examine the role of trades in restoring price parity for equities trading in multiple markets. Using a sample of stocks trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange and on the NYSE, AMEX or NASDAQ, we contrast price convergence when market makers (a) observe only lagged quotes from both markets and (b) also observe local order flow. Traditional error correction model estimates show that prices in the two markets adjust towards parity in response to quoted price discrepancies, meaning that observation of the cross-market quote helps restore parity. Including order flow in an augmented error correction model, we find that incremental price convergence occurs when trades are routed to the market with the better price, and the importance of quotes in the price convergence process is reduced. Cross-sectional analysis reveals that the importance of order flow in each market is decreasing in firm size and increasing in measures of liquidity. Our findings point to an important, and hitherto unexamined, role for trades in promoting inter-market price convergence.     

Asymmetric Information in the IPO Aftermarket

Using the adverse selection component of the spread as a measure of asymmetric information, we investigate how asymmetric information evolves after firms go public. We find that the level of asymmetric information is lower immediately after the initial public offering (IPO) compared with its level after a period of seasoning. In addition, we test the hypothesis that the greater the underpricing of an IPO, the more information is produced in its aftermarket, and the lower the aggregate level of asymmetric information. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis and are robust after controlling for other factors.     

Nasdaq and The Chicago Stock Exchange: An Analysis of Multiple Market Trading

We analyze a set of 97 NASD-listed securities that trade on both the Nasdaq and Chicago Stock Exchange (CHX) to determine if trading costs and price improvement differ between the two markets. We find that order execution costs, which we define by the traded spread and the signed effective half-spread, are significantly lower on the CHX. This difference is consistent over trade types and for trades of at least 1,000 shares. Also, we find that trades occurring on the CHX receive more price improvement than do those occurring on Nasdaq.