Do bears and bulls swim across oceans? Market information transmission between greater China and the rest of the world

This study investigates returns and volatilities transmission across Greater China’s four emerging stock markets and three developed international markets, Tokyo, London, and New York. Using daily open and close price data from 1994 to 2001, we provide empirical evidence that the overnight returns on all the Greater China stock indices can be estimated by using information from at least one of the three developed markets’ daytime returns. The contemporaneous return spillovers are in general unidirectional from more advanced major international markets to the Chinese markets. However, split-sample analysis suggests that there is also evidence of bi-directional return spillovers after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We also find that there are no one-period lagged return spillover effects from the three advanced markets to the Chinese markets, except for Taiwan. Finally, Mainland China’s two stock markets are not affected by contemporaneous nor delayed “bad news”.     

Correlations in price changes and volatility across international stock markets

The short-run interdependence of prices and price volatilityacross three major international stock market is studied. Dailyopening and closing prices of major stock indexes for the Tokyo,London, and New York stock markets are examined. The analysisutilizes the autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH)family of statistical models to explore these pricing relationship.Evidence of price volatility spillovers from New York to Tokyo,London to Tokyo, and New York to London is observed, but noprice volatility spillover effects in other directions are foundfor the pre-October 1987 period.     

Price Interactions in a Sequential Global Market: Evidence from the Cross-listed Stocks

In this paper, we investigate the pattern of dynamic interactions among the prices of those stocks that are cross-listed on the three major stock markets of the world, i.e. New York, London and Tokyo. Major findings are: first, regardless of the nationality of stocks, innovations in the 'home' market returns are always fed into the returns in the 'overseas' markets, with the former causing the latter in the Granger sense. However, innovations in the New York market returns of foreign stocks are fed back into their respective home markets, contributing to the price discovery there. Second, the 'succeeding' overseas market, which operates immediately after the home market, plays a dual-role: it conducts the home market innovations to the next-opening overseas market, as well as adds its own innovations. Third, the exchange rate changes substantially influence the overseas market returns, but not the home market returns. The exchange rates appear to play a role in the transmission mechanism mainly via the inter-market price parity.     

Do bulls and bears move across borders? International transmission of stock returns and volatility

This article investigates empirically how returns and volatilitiesof stock indices are correlated between the Tokyo and New Yorkmarkets. Using intradaily data that define daytime and overnightreturns for both markets, we find that Tokyo (New York) daytimereturns are correlated with New York (Tokyo) overnight returns.We interpret this result as evidence that information revealedduring the trading hours of one market has a global impact onthe returns of the other market. In order to extract the globalfactor from the daytime returns of one market, we propose andestimate a signal extraction model with GARCH processes.     

How do macroeconomic news surprises affect round-the-clock price discovery of gold?

We examine round-the-clock international price discovery of gold among the major gold markets—New York, London and Shanghai during news-intensive and no-news time zones using one-minute data. Using GMM based parallel price discovery measure, we find global leadership of the US as New York gold futures lead across five time zones with 56% information share. New York/London (Nylon) timezone (51%) is the most informative trading session in sequential price discovery for all markets in 24-h. Our aggregate and disaggregate news analysis reveals that the US news surprises have a substantial and positive impact on its price discovery leadership while Eurozone news surprises have a negative impact and Chinese news have negligible impact. Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, we find scheduled news with a large surprise index has a significant yet asymmetric impact as negative news triggers a strong reaction. The impact of news surprise is state-dependent and display sign-reversals during extreme uncertainty, adverse macroeconomic conditions and abnormal investor behaviour.     

中国艺术品投资收益:离岸与在岸市场的特征和互动

文物艺术品既是一个国家的历史印记和文化瑰宝,也是情感资产和动产。本文基于2000-2017年全球艺术品核心市场——北京、香港、纽约和伦敦核心拍卖行中国书画的微观数据,使用特征价格法构建全球中国艺术品市场价格指数,展示全球中国艺术品拍卖市场发展的全貌,同时创新性地使用重复交易数据探讨离岸和在岸中国艺术品市场投资特征和互动关系。研究表明:北京和香港市场作为中国艺术品最大的在岸和离岸拍卖市场价格相互联动,走势基本一致;艺术品财务收益和精神回报是艺术品投资收藏和消费的主要原因,不同市场间财务收益和风险分散的差异是艺术品市场资产配置和资金流动的动力;纽约和伦敦市场中国艺术品投资收益率低于北京和香港,香港是全球中国艺术品投资收益率最高的地区,重复交易中的北京-香港交易策略占优,离岸香港市场得天独厚的环境优势使香港中国艺术品市场未来发展前景可期。     

After-Hours Stock Prices and Post-Crash Hangovers

After-hours pricing in foreign equity markets of multiple-listed U.S. securities appeared to be efficient in predicting New York prices in the weeks immediately following the October 1987 crash but relatively uninformative in succeeding months. By contrast, daily changes in New York prices appear to be efficiently incorporated in after-hours trading on both the Tokyo and London exchanges throughout the sample period. This paper suggests that the asymmetry and temporal variations in cross-market correlations are consistent with rational investor behavior in equity markets with nonzero transaction costs and time-varying share price volatility.     

Spatial Correlation in Expected Returns in Commercial Real Estate Markets and the Role of Core Markets

This study is based on survey data on investor expectations for 40 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the US over the period from 2003:Q2 to 2014:Q2. The paper has two main objectives. These are firstly to identify whether expected rates of return across different commercial real estate markets are positively spatially correlated and secondly to analyze the role of core markets like New York, Washington, DC, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Chicago in the information-spreading process. All the tests conducted are conditional on the maintained hypothesis that expected returns across different markets are spatially uncorrelated. To carry out these tests, we regress a measure of excess return in each of the 40 markets on (contemporaneous) measures of expected returns in other markets, controlling for the interaction between (neighboring) markets. We find very large spatial interaction coefficients across different markets. Our basic estimates yield a spatial correlation coefficient of near one and statistically significant at standard levels. Chow tests allow rejection of the hypothesis that core markets like New York, Washington, DC, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Chicago are no different than markets like Cleveland, Columbus, Orlando, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City, St. Louis, and Tampa in explaining the covariances of the rates of return among different commercial real estate markets. Tests of structural change also imply that core markets currently play a more prominent role that in the past in the transfer of information from one market to another.     

Transmission of movements in stock markets

The paper analyses the relationships between three stock markets: New York, Tokyo and Frankfurt. The non-simultaneity of the trading times in these three markets determines the results of cross-correlations and regressions with daily returns. To cope with this and other problems, an empirical model is proposed and estimated. This model allows the separation of the ability to influence and the sensitivity of the different markets, and New York is found to be the most influential market, with Tokyo the most sensitive.     

The market reaction to cross-listings: Does the destination market matter?

This paper examines (i) whether market reactions to cross-listings differ across destination markets and (ii) to what extent the following explanations for value creation around cross-listings can account for differences in market reactions across cross-listings on various destination markets: overcoming market segmentation, increased market liquidity, improved information disclosure, and better investor protection (“bonding”). We analyze 526 cross-listings from 44 different countries on eight major stock exchanges and document significant announcement returns of 1.3% on average for cross-listings on US exchanges, 1.1% on London Stock Exchange, 0.6% on exchanges in continental Europe, and 0.5% (not significant) on Tokyo Stock Exchange. We find evidence consistent with improved disclosure and bonding creating value for cross-listings on US exchanges, while overcoming segmentation and bonding are associated with higher announcement returns on the London Stock Exchange. The evidence is mixed for continental European exchanges and for Tokyo. Our results highlight the role of the destination market in value creation around cross-listings.     

Global information distribution in the gold OTC markets

This paper aims to estimate the global information distribution in the OTC gold market. Using the two-scale realized variance as a proxy for information flow, we estimate the information shares of Asia, Europe, London/New York and the United States, with London/New York covering the two-hour overlapping trading in London afternoon and New York morning. We find that over the sample period of 1996 to 2012, the average daily information shares are 17%, 31%, 22%, and 30% for Asia, Europe, London/New York and the U.S., respectively. On a per-hour basis, the information share of London/New York is over two and half times of those of the rest of Europe and the U.S., and over five times of the information share of Asia. Despite doubling its share of OTC trading, Asia's information share actually declined from about 20% in the late 1990s to around 15% in 2009–2012, with the opposite trend for the London/New York market. Private information flow, measured by the volatility impact of unexpected order flows, has a flatter distribution across Asia, Europe, and the U.S., possibly due to the presence of the same large gold dealers in different markets. The declining information share of Asia and the concentration of information to the two-hour London/New York trading raise concerns for regional market development and global market stability.     

Information transfer,microstmctures and intraday price return spikes

Previous research has identified overnight public information as the cause of higher opening returns and mean reversion in security markets. This paper tests this hypothesis by using an intervention and transfer function time series model to filter out the dynamic effects of an overnight information set on the opening, and subsequent, intraday AOI stock and SPI futures intraday price returns. A further research objective was to analyse the process by which information is transferred into prices and whether there is a differential impact across stock and futures markets. It was determined that the information contained in the overnight US stock market had: (i) a differential impact on the Australian stock and futures market, and (ii) after filtering out the impact of overnight information, a significant reversal tendency remained in both markets after opening. Further analysis supported the conclusion that price spikes at opening were not wholly related to overnight information. Other possible explanations, such as different trading mechanisms, did not provide a satisfactory explanation. Overall, it appears that the uncertainty participants face at the beginning of a trading session may induce a number of subtle market reactions (both rational and irrational), in markets with different microstmctures and trading clientele.     

Valuation implications of pharmaceutical companies' R&D regulatory approval notifications

This paper examines shareholder wealth effects surrounding applications to, and approvals by, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for firms listed on the New York (NYSE) and London (LSE) stock exchanges. Applications to the FDA for drug approvals significantly increase shareholder wealth for NYSE firms only. The increase is driven by applications for enhancements to existing drugs, with the market anticipating the application, thus suggesting information leakage. FDA approvals also significantly increase shareholder wealth in both markets. However, there is no evidence of information leakage and the significant post-event abnormal returns support the attention-grabbing hypothesis. Enhanced drug approvals are value-relevant for both markets, which highlights the contribution of real-options to firm value.     

Impact of stock market trading on currency market volatility spillovers

This research aims to detect the volatility linkages among various currencies during operating and non-operating hours of three major stock markets (Tokyo, London and New York) by employing bivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model in selected currency pairs. In particular, the aim is to analyze whether the major stock markets have a differential impact on volatility linkages in currency markets. The results indicate that volatility linkages in intraday are far stronger then in daily results. One remarkable result is that rather than major currencies, some minor and exotic currencies play a leading role in volatility transmission during trading hours of major stock markets.     

Macroeconomic announcements and price discovery in the foreign exchange market

This study shows that the dominance of the overlapping trading hours of London and New York in the price discovery of the EUR/USD and USD/JPY markets only applies on days with U.S. announcements. Different from Cai et al. (2008) and Wang and Yang (2011), we highlight the informational advantage of local traders at the arrival of macroeconomic announcements in the local market, and find that macroeconomic announcements affect the pattern of price discovery across different markets, consistent with Chen and Gau (2010) and Jiang et al. (2012). We also examine changes in information shares before and after the announcement. A significant increase in price discovery before the announcement suggests the possibility of information leakage, while enhanced price discovery efficacy after the announcement suggests that prices gradually adjust to new information, not just immediately respond to the arrival of announcements.     

What drives Yen interventions in Tokyo?: Do off-shore foreign exchange markets matter more than Tokyo market?

We investigate the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Yen interventions for the period 13 May 1991 to 16 March 2004. The previous literature has been hampered by the coarse daily data and has been unable to identify intervention determinants beyond some embodiment of the first moment of Yen returns. We consider both lagged overnight off-shore (London and New York) and intradaily on-shore (Tokyo) market developments for their heterogeneous influences on the BOJ's intervention decisions. Using a friction model to estimate the reaction function, we find that the interventions were leaning against the wind during the Tokyo hours, in general. Prior to June 1995, there were significant responses to previous day's intradaily Yen returns and volatility. Post-1995, we report a broadening in the BOJ's monitoring to include overnight off-shore Yen returns until Dec 2002 and a broader measure of market disorderliness measured as a transactions cost band in one-month covered interest rate parity condition since Jan 2003. Moreover, there is some evidence that the BOJ secretly leaned into the wind in response to Yen depreciations during the recent period of 2003–2004.     

Round-the-clock market efficiency and home bias: Evidence from the international Japanese government bonds futures markets

This paper examines how information is processed between almost identical international futures markets: London (LIFFE) and Tokyo (TSE) JGB futures. In these markets, variations in open-to-open changes are virtually the same as those of close-to-close changes, suggesting that information is transmitted efficiently across markets with small opening pricing errors. The overall results confirm market efficiency around the clock, yet the intraday U-shaped patterns in volume/volatility of the London JGB futures suggest home bias in international investments, indicating a less global view of trading than expected. Specifically, at the LIFFE open, London investors rush to rebalance portfolios instead of doing so at the TSE close, which is only one hour before the LIFFE opens.     

Bivariate Nonparametric Density Estimation of Stock Prices and Volume

This paper comprehensively investigates the joint movement of stock prices and trading volume of New York and Tokyo stock markets by undertaking nonparametric density estimation. Bivariate nonparametric density estimation has been reported as a powerful tool for revealing complicated relations between two variables. In application to finance, it is important to use a method robust for heavy-tailed densities, since the distributions of asset price changes are known to have heavy tails, and information about sudden and large price changes is contained in the tails. The empirical regularities found in this paper are mostly consistent with previous literature, but partially disagrees with the work of Gallant et al. (1992).     

Linkages among European and world stock markets

Causal relations and dynamic interactions among equity returns in ten countries for the period 1983–1994 are analysed. An innovation accounting approach based on a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to estimate the proportion of each market return's forecast error attributable to innovations in foreign market returns. Three major results appear. The variance decompositions indicate a strong degree of economic interaction among stock markets. The US stock market has a considerable influence on stock market performance in almost every country, while there is no substantial inter-continental influence from the European stock markets on the world's two largest equity markets in New York and Tokyo. Finally, the pattern of the impulse-response functions illustrates a rapid international transmission of stock market events, supporting the hypothesis of international stock market efficiency.