波动溢出网络视角的金融风险传染研究

当前各类经济风险交叉关联,金融系统的风险溢出效应备受关注,为刻画我国金融系统性风险传染的路径特征,本文从波动溢出网络的视角分析金融系统内部的风险传染机制。首先使用广义动态因子模型对收益波动的共同波动率成分和特质性波动率成分进行区分。然后,根据货币市场、资本市场、大宗商品交易市场、外汇市场、房地产市场和黄金市场之间的特质性波动溢出效应,利用基于TVP-VAR模型的方差分解溢出指数分析金融系统波动溢出的动态联动性和风险传递机制。在分析方向性波动溢出效应的基础上,采用方差分解网络方法构建起信息溢出复杂网络,从网络视角分析金融系统内部的风险传染特征。实证研究发现,房地产市场和外汇市场的净溢出效应绝对值相较于其他市场更大,其受其他市场风险冲击的影响强于对外风险溢出效应,而股票市场的单向对外风险溢出效应强度最大。在波动溢出的基础上,进一步考虑股市波动率指数与其他市场波动率指数进行投资组合的资产配置权重,计算了波动率指数投资组合的最优组合权重和对冲策略。研究结论有助于更好地理解我国金融系统的风险传染机制,对监管机构加强宏观审慎监管、投资者规避投资风险具有重要意义。     

我国金融倾斜波动效应的实证分析

基于融资结构变迁的视角,"金融倾斜"特指间接金融与直接金融两种融资方式的不平衡发展,而金融倾斜极易引发一国经济的非对称波动.长期以来,间接金融主导着我国金融资源配置,通过H-P滤波分析可以发现,我国信贷市场波动具有强烈的亲周期特征,股票市场波动仅显现微弱的亲周期特征;通过非对称脉冲响应分析可以发现,我国信贷紧缩时期的波动效应大于扩张期的波动效应,由此验证了我国经济周期中"小冲击,大波动"的金融加速器效应.     

引入国债期货合约能否发挥现货市场稳定效应?——基于中国金融周期的研究视角

我国国债期货市场能否发挥稳定现货市场功能,金融周期风险是否会改变国债期货市场对现货市场波动的影响,是投资者实施风险管理和监管部门构建市场稳定机制的重要依据。本文通过信息传递机制和交易者行为两个维度探析国债期货市场发挥稳定功能的微观机理,分析金融周期风险对衍生工具稳定功能的影响,解析引入国债期货合约能否缓解金融周期波动对国债市场冲击,同时关注我国国债期货交易机制改进与现券波动关系。研究发现:(1)我国国债期货市场已实现抑制现货市场波动的功能,金融周期风险会引发现货价格波动,国债期货市场能够降低金融周期的波动冲击;(2)改善现货市场深度和套保交易是国债期货市场发挥稳定功能的微观路径,国债期货市场增进国债预期交易量流动性、减弱非预期交易量干扰,金融周期低波动区间套保交易稳定作用受到抑制;(3)国债期货投机交易和波动溢出效应助长现货市场波动,正负期现基差对国债波动影响具有非对称特征。     

时频视角下中国房地产业对金融系统的极端风险溢出——基于QVAR-BK模型的实证研究

守住不发生系统性金融风险底线是我国建设现代化经济体系、实现高质量发展的必然要求，作为金融市场中的关键一环，房地产市场是系统性金融风险重要监测领域。本文从时域和频域视角出发，采用QVAR模型和BK溢出指数相结合的方法，研究了房地产市场对金融系统和各个金融子市场的溢出效应，并重点考察了从正常状态到极端状态房地产业风险溢出水平及结构的变化。研究发现：第一，我国房地产业对金融系统的风险溢出由短期高频率的风险溢出所主导，且极端状态下的风险溢出显著强于正常状态；第二，极端正向和极端负向冲击下房地产业对金融系统的风险溢出呈现出明显的非对称性，且极端负向冲击下的溢出效应更强；第三，正常状态下房地产业对股市、债市等金融子市场的风险溢出大多被低估，极端事件发生后，房地产业短期内对债券市场的风险溢出明显增强，长期内对黄金市场的风险溢出明显增强。本文研究结论对我国有效防范房地产市场风险，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展具有政策启示。     

金融系统多维度流动性间溢出效应研究 ——基于三元VAR-GARCH-BEEK模型的分析

本文通过建立三元VAR(6)-GARCH(1,1)-BEEK模型从均值和方差层面刻画了我国金融系统不同维度流动性之间的溢出效应。研究发现,市场流动性、融资流动性与货币流动性之间存在双向均值溢出效应;融资流动性对市场流动性具有单项均值溢出效应,对货币流动性则具有单项波动溢出效应;货币流动性、融资流动性与市场流动性之间存在双向波动非对称溢出,且市场流动性的波动溢出效应较强。综上,本文认为监管者应加强不同维度流动性间的传导转换效率,同时密切监控金融市场资金状况,防止金融市场流动性出现大幅波动,并在执行货币政策时,兼顾各维度流动性变化对货币政策效力的影响。     

我国房地产信贷调控对房地产周期的影响分析

本文研究房地产周期波动的成因中发现我国历史上有些房地产信贷调控助推了我国房地产周期波动,而对投资性购房实施的逆周期房地产信贷调控平缓了房地产周期波动。通过进一步计量分析房地产信贷与房地产周期的关系,得出我国房地产信贷政策与房地产周期之间的相关结论。最后提出建立逆周期房地产信贷调控机制来熨平房地产周期波动的政策建议。     

人民币汇率与我国股价、房价的联动关系研究

近年来,我国人民币汇率形成机制、股票市场和房地产市场发生了巨大变化,人民币汇率和股价、房价之间的信息传导和波动关联备受瞩目。本文采用VAR-MGARCH-BEKK模型,分析了我国人民币汇率、股价和房价之间的联动关系。研究结果表明,从波动的溢出效应来看,人民币汇率的波动率、股票价格的增长率和房地产价格的增长率之间存在非常明显的波动溢出效应;从资产价格的水平影响来看,人民币汇率与股票价格、房地产价格等国内资产价格的水平相关性较弱,而股票价格对房地产价格的影响较明显,并就该结论提出了相关的理论解释和政策建议。     

房地产市场与股票市场之间的溢出效应研究:文献综述

房地产市场和股票市场的健康运行关系到宏观经济的安全与稳定,对两者之间溢出效应的研究也一直是热点。本文从理论和实证两个方面对房地产市场与股票市场之间溢出效应的文献展开梳理,发现信贷机制理论、财富效应理论和投资组合理论从理论角度分析了房地产市场与股票市场之间的相关关系,这些理论仅仅停留在宏观视角或者只是关注微观层面,无法实现微观和宏观的结合。对房地产和股票市场溢出效应的经验研究的结论难以统一,对溢出效应的有无和溢出效应表现为"跷跷板效应"还是联动效应的回答无法达成一致,实证研究方法有待改进。     

股票价格波动对银行稳定影响的理论及经验分析

商业银行直接或间接地参与股票市场,就会因股票价格的波动影响银行资产质量进而影响银行资产负债表和银行稳定。理论和实践证明股票价格的急剧波动和银行部门不稳定性扩散之间存在紧密的联系;同时,银行信贷的扩张对股票价格的波动有很大影响。对我国的经验分析表明:银行间信贷市场与股票市场的资金连通存在较强的相关性;上市银行脆弱度与上证综合指数的相关性在5%水平上显著。在综合经营的大背景下,应加强对我国金融脆弱性的识别和监管,疏通货币市场与股票市场正常的资金联系,加强对商业银行的审慎管理,银行自身也要加强风险管理。     

上海房地产市场发展周期与金融运行关系研究

房地产市场是宏观经济的一夺子系统，具有周期运行的特点。本文通过实证分析，认为上海房地产市场周期发展态势基本形成，其受宏观经济周期、金融政策影响颇深，对实际利率较为敏感，直接影响商业银行信贷结构，虽然投资品属性日益明显，但与股票市场此消彼长的局势尚未形成。     

中国房地产企业间系统性风险溢出效应分析——基于尾部风险网络模型

本文以2007—2021年沪深A股上市房企为样本,首先基于SIM单指数分位数回归技术提出测量系统性风险的新指标SIM-CoVaR,并结合前沿的TENET网络模型,构造跨房地产企业风险动态传染的尾部风险网络,然后采用块模型探究房地产市场系统性风险溢出的聚类性、触发机制及传播路径,最后考察网络整体结构和宏观经济变量对房地产市场系统性风险溢出的影响。研究表明:(1)我国房地产企业间存在明显的系统性风险联动性和溢出效应,在市场动荡时期房地产部门是金融风险溢出的放大器;(2)评估系统重要性节点企业时,除考虑企业规模等内部属性,还应考虑房企间关联结构,利用系统性风险指数可有效捕捉网络中系统重要性节点;(3)跨房企的系统性风险溢出具有显著的聚类特征,尾部风险网络可被划分为4个不同的功能模块,各模块的成员及其角色呈现明显的时变特性,监管部门可据此从供给端“因企施策”;(4)网络聚集性、网络效率和网络匹配性的降低能显著降低房地产市场的系统性风险溢出效应。本文从企业微观层面探讨房地产市场风险的形成机制,为促进房地产业健康发展和防范化解宏观层面的系统性金融风险提供参考。     

Real Estate Markets and Macroprudential Policy in Europe

Boom‐bust cycles in real estate markets have been major factors in systemic financial crises and therefore need to be at the forefront of macroprudential policy. The geographically differentiated nature of real estate market fluctuations implies that these policies need to be granular across regions and countries. Before the financial crisis that started in 2007 property markets were overvalued in a range of European countries, but much like in other constituencies active policies addressing this were an exception. An increasing number of studies suggest that borrower‐based regulatory policies, such as reductions in loan‐to‐value or debt‐to‐income limits, can be effective in leaning against real estate booms. But many of the new macroprudential policy authorities in Europe do not have clear powers to determine them. Moreover, the cross‐border spillovers they may give rise to suggest the establishment of a well‐defined macroprudential coordination mechanism for the single European market.     

Spillovers in risk of financial institutions

ABSTRACT

We analyse the total and directional spillovers across a set of financial institution systemic risk state variables: credit risk, real estate market risk, interest rate risk, interbank liquidity risk and overall market risk. We examine the response of the spillover levels, within the set of systemic risk state variables, to a number of events in the financial markets and to initiatives undertaken by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The relationship between the time-varying spillovers and policy-related events is analysed using a multiple structural break estimation procedure and looking at the temporary increases in the spillover indices. Our sample includes five European Union countries: core countries France and Germany, periphery countries Spain and Italy, and a reference country, the UK. We show that national stock markets and real estate markets have a leading role in shock transmission across selected state variables. However, the role of the other variables reverses over the course of the crisis. We document that the total and net spillover indices react strongly to the events relating to financial assistance packages in Europe.     

How strong are the linkages between real estate and other sectors in China?

International experience points to the critical role of stable property markets in maintaining financial stability. This paper investigates the real and financial linkages between real estate sector and other sectors. The real linkage based on input–output analysis shows that the linkages have strengthened. The financial linkages in terms of credit risk spillovers across sectors are studied by using DAG method and SVAR. We find that that credit risk in the real estate sector has large-scale spillover effects onto other sectors. Consequently, shocks to the property market could have much larger impact on the Chinese economy than suggested by headline figures.     

宏观审慎与货币政策双支柱框架研究——基于系统性风险视角

本轮国际金融危机之后,建立“宏观审慎政策专门盯住金融稳定目标,货币政策主要关注经济稳定目标”的双支柱成为国际社会的普遍共识。本文基于系统性风险视角,深入剖析系统性风险的累积和实现机制,从时间和空间两个维度梳理宏观审慎政策实现金融稳定的有效性,以及货币政策对系统性风险造成的潜在溢出性。目前从系统性风险的时间维度探讨双支柱政策的研究已较为丰富,可以总结为宏观审慎政策的“逆周期调节”机制和货币政策的“资本缺口”机制。从系统性风险的空间维度探讨双支柱政策的研究,也即对双支柱政策如何作用和改变金融机构内部关联网络的研究正成为研究热点。本文从政策工具和影响机制上对空间维度双支柱政策进行了系统梳理。基于以上分析,本文对双支柱政策的制定提出如下建议:时间维度宏观审慎政策要关注并消除货币政策对时间维度系统性风险的溢出性,同时要加强空间维度宏观审慎政策工具的创新力度。     

Dynamic and frequency-domain spillover among economic policy uncertainty,stock and housing markets in China

This study examines the dynamic characteristics of information spillover effect among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), stock and housing markets in China's first-, second- and third-tier cities. To measure return and volatility spillovers over time and across frequencies simultaneously, the researchers utilize the time-frequency connectedness network approach developed by Baruník and Křehlík (2018). The empirical findings suggest that return and volatility spillovers are stronger in the longer period (more than 3 months) than in the shorter period (1 to 3 months). In the short term, second and third-tier cities are net transmitters of information spillovers, while in the long term, first-tier cities, EPU, and stock markets are the net information transmitters. Furthermore, the long-term information from the EPU and stock market affect most of the real estate markets for different tier cities. Additionally, market segmentation reveals the city-specific characteristics of China's real estate market, especially the close connections between first-tier cities and the stock market. These results have important empirical implications for real estate policymakers and investors when they make related short or long-term decisions.     

Risk spillovers from China's and the US stock markets during high-volatility periods: Evidence from East Asianstock markets

This paper studies cross-country risk spillovers through C-vine copula quantile regression. We find Both China's and the US markets can result in large risk spillovers to East Asian markets. Furthermore, their significant conditional spillovers indicate they can emit risk through an intermediary market. However, their distinctive dependency structures with East Asian markets reflect their differences in spillovers to the markets in magnitude. The risk spillovers from US are stronger than China in magnitude. Moreover, the risk spillover from China's stock market during its high-volatility period is weaker than the whole period, which is contrary to the US market. It may imply Chinese financial influences gradually increase with Chinese financial liberalization and regional integration. Our results have implications for macroprudential regulators adopt the effective supervision and regulation to deal with the cross-border risk spillovers, and for international investors in risk hedging, derivative valuation and investment.     

The behaviour of asset return and volatility spillovers in Turkey: A tale of two crises

This paper examines return and volatility spillovers between the Turkish stock market with international stock, exchange rate and commodity markets. Our aim is not only to examine spillover behaviour with a large emerging market but also to examine cross—asset spillovers and how they vary across two periods of financial market crisis; the dotcom crash and the liquidity-induced financial crisis. This is to be compared with existing work that typically focuses on industrialised countries or single asset markets only. Using the spillover index methodology we uncover an interesting distinction between these two periods of markets stress. Over the dotcom period spillovers are largely between the same asset class, notably two exchange rate series and two international stock markets series. However, in the period including the financial crisis, spillovers both increase and cross asset types and suggest a much greater degree of market interdependence. Understanding this changing nature in spillovers is key for investors, regulators and academics involved in theoretical model development.     

金融周期对房地产价格的影响——基于SV-TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

本文利用2004-2016年的季度数据构建金融周期综合指数,用以描述金融市场景气程度;使用SV-TVP-VAR模型,围绕金融周期对我国房地产价格的影响进行实证研究。结果表明,金融周期对房地产价格的影响具有明显的时变性特征:2008年以前金融市场繁荣对房价有稳定推升作用,2008年后该影响持续弱化;与之类似,实体经济对房价的影响同样自2008年起逐渐减小。这意味着,在经济增长方式转变和经济结构调整的过程中,我国房地产价格对经济金融冲击的敏感度已经大幅下降,金融扩张可能难以再通过房地产市场有效带动实体经济的繁荣,相反,其反而可能导致银行贷款不良率的攀升,在金融系统内积累系统性风险。我国针对房地产的宏观调控政策不仅对控制贷款不良率的提高体现出积极作用,而且自2008年国际金融危机以来,产出及房价的随机波动率均呈显著下降趋势,风险得到有效控制。未来应更加重视房地产市场调控在宏观审慎政策框架中的重要地位,遏制房地产金融化泡沫化势头,防范房地产市场引发金融危机。