Predictive Modeling of Obesity Prevalence for the U.S. Population

Modeling obesity prevalence is an important part of the evaluation of mortality risk. A large volume of literature exists in the area of modeling mortality rates, but very few models have been developed for modeling obesity prevalence. In this study we propose a new stochastic approach for modeling obesity prevalence that accounts for both period and cohort effects as well as the curvilinear effects of age. Our model has good predictive power as we utilize multivariate ARIMA models for forecasting future obesity rates. The proposed methodology is illustrated on the U.S. population, aged 23–90, during the period 1988–2012. Forecasts are validated on actual data for the period 2013–2015 and it is suggested that the proposed model performs better than existing models.     

Mortality of Smoking by Gender

Exposure to cigarette smoke has had and will continue to have a huge effect on mortality. Significant differences in smoking prevalence rates by gender have contributed to varying levels and rates of improvement in mortality over the last several decades and are expected to continue to influence mortality improvement differently over the next several decades. The combined effect of greater historical smoking prevalence rates by males and their corresponding earlier and larger reduction has in part been responsible for the recent improvement in mortality rates for males compared to that for females in the United States. Similar patterns are evident in almost all economically developed countries, although their timing and levels differ. The patterns in less-developed countries will likely follow similar patterns as concerns emerge about the effect of smoking on the mortality of their citizens. The objective of this article is to compare smoking prevalence and cessation by gender and the effect on smoking-attributable and, in turn, all-cause mortality. A summary of mortality attribution approaches used to enhance the evaluation of the effect of smoking and projections of mortality rates by gender is also provided.     

The Metabolic Syndrome and All-Cause Mortality in an Insured Lives Population

Abstract

Metabolic syndrome and its association with mortality have not been studied in insured lives populations. The Swiss Re Study evaluated metabolic syndrome prevalence and associated mortality from all causes and circulatory disease in a cohort of 35,470 predominantly healthy individuals, aged 18–83 years, who were issued life insurance policies between 1986 and 1997. Metabolic syndrome was defined using the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Expert Panel Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines. The NCEP obesity criteria were modified with a prediction equation using body mass index, gender, and age substituted for waist circumference. Adjustments also were made for nonfasting triglyceride and blood glucose values. Risk ratios for policyholders identified with metabolic syndrome were 1.16 (P = .156) for mortality from all causes and 1.45 (P = .080) for mortality from circulatory disease compared with individuals without the syndrome. Risk was proportional to the number of components, or score, of the metabolic syndrome present. Risk ratios for metabolic syndrome score were 1.14 (P < .001) for mortality from all causes and 1.38 (P < .001) for mortality from circulatory disease compared with individuals without metabolic syndrome factors. In both all-cause and circulatory death models, relative risk was highest for the blood pressure risk factor. Based on a modified NCEP definition, increased mortality risk is associated with metabolic syndrome in an insured lives cohort and has life insurance mortality pricing implications.     

Balancing Retirement Security With the Needs of Frail Parents

Abstract

Caring for frail elderly parents can interfere with work responsibilities. People who provide care to their parents may need to take time off from work or retire altogether. However, reductions in labor supply at midlife can have serious implications for retirement wealth and, as a result, on economic well-being in later life. This paper examines how family support for the elderly can affect retirement savings by examining the relationship between labor supply, time help to parents, and financial assistance to parents. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study on a nationally representative sample of women ages 53–63, we found that women who helped their parents with personal care assistance worked significantly fewer hours than did those who did not help their parents, whereas those who provided financial assistance worked significantly more hours. Although few persons at midlife presently spend substantial amounts of time helping their elderly parents in any given year, for those who do, the costs can be high. Pressures on families are likely to mount in the near future as falling mortality and fertility rates continue to increase the proportion of the population that is very old and as women continue to play more important roles in the labor market.     

Obesity and life underwriting

Obesity is increasing in the US population and currently affects one-third of adults. The physiology of obesity is complex and predisposition to obesity is influenced by multiple genes and environment. Obesity may be measured by body fat percentage, body mass index (BMI), or visceral adiposity. Life insurance companies generally use height and weight (build) determinations. The purpose of this paper is to review the life risks and physiology of obesity, and to suggest that the current trend to liberalize traditional build table ratings may not be prudent. A case history will be utilized to demonstrate these points.     

Worries and plans as individuals approach retirement

The primary objective of an employment-based retirement plan is to provide a secure and adequate income for workers throughout retirement. In the defined contribution (DC) framework, asset accumulation is a means to the end, but not the end. Drawing retirement income from savings and paying for health care expenses in retirement are the two issues that concern individuals the most as they approach retirement. This article examines the attitudes of near-retirees regarding these risks and their plans for managing them. The author discusses how DC plan design can have a major impact on how individuals convert their retirement savings to retirement income; differences in survey responses between those who have consulted a financial advisor or other financial professional and those who have not; and the role of trust in implementing advice.     

Screening life insurance applicants with hemoglobin A1c: a pilot study of cost-benefit

Hemogloblin A1c (HgbA1c) values are superior to those of random serum glucose, serum fructosamine, and urine glucose as a means of detecting carbohydrate intolerance. Further, HgbA1c values have been shown to correlate with mortality in a continuous fashion beginning at levels between 5.0% and 6.0%. Unfortunately, the expense of HgbA1c testing is considerably higher than that of routine serum chemistry testing. Diabetes is an increasingly common disorder clearly associated with mortality. Also, the current demographic trends towards increasing age and increasing prevalence of obesity underscore the value to underwriters of identifying carbohydrate intolerance.     

Obesity and the risk of heart failure

An article is reviewed which demonstrates that obesity is associated with an increase in the relative risk of heart failure ranging from 1.8 to 5.6 depending on the degree of obesity and gender, even when other known risk factors for heart failure are excluded. The most reasonable conclusion is that there are one or more mechanisms where obesity results in heart failure that have not yet been recognized.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Financial Education on Graduating Business Students’ Perceptions of Their Retirement Planning Familiarity,Motivation, and Preparedness

Today's multifaceted and dynamic financial environment requires a high level of individual financial literacy to ensure that sound financial behaviors are the norm. Unfortunately, many individuals have limited knowledge regarding financial issues and are ill prepared to make sound financial choices. The purpose of this article was to benchmark and then determine if graduating business students’ perception of their retirement planning familiarity, motivation, and preparedness improved after taking a semester‐long course in Personal Risk Management and Insurance (PRMI). We discovered that business students were more financially literate than nonbusiness students and that business students’ familiarity with retirement plans and personal level of readiness to make retirement planning decisions improved significantly after taking the principles class. Specifically, we showed that only 15.8 percent and 42.3 percent of the nonbusiness and business control students, respectively, felt adequately prepared to make retirement decisions, while 82 percent of the business students who completed the PRMI class felt prepared. Ex post, graduating seniors who were exposed to coursework covering life‐cycle risks and options to treat those risks perceived that they are leaving college with a better ability to meet the financial challenges that await them. Last, we showed that significant differences existed in retirement plan and investment familiarity based on gender. Our findings provide support for including financial literacy as a general education requirement at colleges and universities.     

Consensus building in safety and security: a case study of Fukushima evacuees returning home

This study examines consensus building in environmental and energy policies by analyzing the minutes of the safety and security committee of the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) of the Japanese government, in the context of the discussion of the safe return of Fukushima evacuees after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami and the subsequent Fukushima nuclear disaster. One important issue associated with evacuation policies was the high number of evacuees, if not all, who were not willing to return to their old homes. Although the contents of governmental committee meetings are freely accessible through the internet, they have been rarely analyzed for these purposes. In this study, we used text-mining techniques to analyze NRA committee minutes quantitatively and qualitatively. We have three primary findings. First, the committee attempted to take evacuees’ feelings into account and pragmatically discuss what was needed to restore their lives and livelihoods, as well as to make its meetings transparent and open to the public by, for example, streaming them live on the internet. Second, in earlier committee meetings, government representatives insisted on specific policies made by themselves to control the return of evacuees. However, outside experts at the meetings convinced representatives that decisions regarding issues surrounding the safe return of evacuees should consider the opinions of the evacuees themselves. Third, the NRA reported the outcome of the meetings at a Cabinet meeting to accelerate policies requiring urgent implementation as well as those related to the alleviation of people’s anxieties regarding exposure to radioactivity or those related to equal treatment among those who wanted to voluntarily move away from the affected areas versus those who want to return to their homes. Finally, this analysis further identified a number of issues concerning citizen participation and governance associated with environment and energy policies, all of which need to be overcome in order to establish consensus among concerned stakeholders.     

Fish consumption advisories: knowledge,compliance and why people fish in an urban estuary

The risk to human consumers from contaminants in fish is often dealt with by issuing consumption advisories. The hypothesis that consumption rates vary as a function of knowledge about advisories was tested for 254 people fishing in the Newark Bay Complex, in the New York/New Jersey harbour estuary. Interviews were conducted in the complex throughout the fishing season. There were no ethnic differences in the percentage of people who fished, crabbed, or did both, Most people either fished or crabbed, but not both, which has implications for risk assessment and communication. Only 45% of the people interviewed had heard about advisories; American Indians had heard little about fish advisories, and Hispanics had heard little about crab advisories. There were ethnic differences in education, consumption patterns, and knowledge about advisories. Knowledge about consumption advisories and the amount of fish and crabs consumed are negatively correlated. Despite laws forbidding catching (and consuming) crabs from Newark Bay Complex, people continue to do so. A higher percentage of people who consume the most fish and crabs are aware of consumption advisories, compared to those at the low end of consumption, but people who consume no fish or crabs from the Newark Bay Complex have the highest level of knowledge. There are few differences in the ratings of the reasons for fishing between those who are, and are not, aware of advisories. Since people mainly fish and crab to be outdoors and with friends and family, relax, and commune with nature, risk assessors and communicators should acknowledge the social and aesthetic nature of the activity, and address consumption by separating the activity (fishing, crabbing) from the risk (pregnant women and children should limit consumption).     

The impact of health care reform on older workers, retirees and employers

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act as amended by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010 impacts everyone who uses or pays for the health care system. Among the new law's effects will be changes in older workers' health care choices as they transition from full-time employees to part-time work or other jobs and, ultimately, to retirement, and the retiree health benefit choices facing their employers. This article reviews the major issues surrounding these changes, including those affecting retiree health benefits, benefits for Medicare-eligible retirees and health care options for older Americans not yet eligible for Medicare. The authors conclude that although employers will be reacting in 2010 and 2011 with regard to some issues surrounding FASB ASC 715-60 and the early retiree reinsurance program, employers should consider waiting to make major changes until regulations are issued and the health plans for active employees have been fully vetted.     

Crises and confidence: Systemic banking crises and depositor behavior

We show that individuals who have experienced a systemic banking crisis are 11 percentage points less likely to use banks in the U.S. than otherwise similar individuals who emigrated from the same country but did not live through a crisis. This finding is robust to controlling for exposure to other macroeconomic events and to various methods for addressing potential bias due to migrant self-selection. Consistent with the view that personal experience plays an important role in decision-making, the effects are larger for individuals who were older and more likely to have had wealth entrusted to the banking system at the time of the crisis and for people who experienced crises in countries without deposit insurance.     

CARE Conference Hong Kong Polytechnic University,June 9, 2014: Equity Financing for Early‐Stage Companies in China

Many of the smaller private‐sector Chinese companies in their entrepreneurial growth stage are now being funded by Chinese venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) firms. In contrast to western VC markets, where institutional investors such as pension funds and endowments have been the main providers of capital, in China most capital for domestic funds has come from private business owners and high net worth individuals. As relatively new players in the market who are less accustomed to entrusting their capital to fund managers for a lengthy period of time, Chinese VCs and their investors have shown a shorter investment horizon and demanded a faster return of capital and profits. In an attempt to explain this behavior, Paul Gompers and Josh Lerner of Harvard Business School have offered a “grandstanding hypothesis” that focuses on the incentives of younger, less established VCs to push their portfolio companies out into the IPO market as early as they can—and thus possibly prematurely—to establish a track record and facilitate future fundraising. This explanation is supported by the under‐performance of Chinese VC‐backed IPOs that has been documented by the author's recent research. Although they continue to offer significant opportunities for global investors, China's VC and PE markets still face many challenges. The supervisory system and legal environment need further improvement, and Chinese funds need to find a way to attract more institutional investors—a goal that can and likely will be promoted through government inducements.     

C-reactive protein--a screening test for coronary disease?

C-reactive protein (CRP) is one of a number of substances termed "acute phase reactants," biologic substances that appear in the circulation when an active inflammatory process occurs. Although traditionally used to monitor or detect major infectious or inflammatory conditions, elevations of CRP levels within the conventional range of "normals" has been intensively studied as a marker for coronary disease and risk of future coronary events. Sensitive assays that can be performed on a high-volume, commercial basis are now available. CRP appears to be a valuable marker for the prediction of future events in individuals who have known coronary artery disease. CRP has been proposed as a coronary disease-screening test for healthy individuals; however, available data suggest that use of CRP in this context may be premature. This paper reviews published research concerning CRP and the prediction of cardiovascular and total mortality risk, then outlines the current "state of the art" for the application of CRP to the risk assessment process.     

Mortality,Health, and Marriage: A Study Based on Taiwan's Population Data

Life expectancy has been increasing significantly since the start of the 20th century, and mortality improvement trends are likely to continue in the 21st century. Stochastic mortality models are used frequently to predict the expansion in life expectancy. In addition to gender, age, period, and cohort are the three main risk factors considered in constructing mortality models. Other than these factors, it is also believed that marital status is related to health and longevity, and many studies have found that married persons have a lower mortality rate than the unmarried. In this study, we have used Taiwan's marital data for the whole population (married, unmarried, divorced/widowed) to evaluate if the marital status can be a preferred criteria. Furthermore, we also want to know whether the preferred criteria will be valid in the future. We chose two popular mortality models, the Lee-Carter and age-period-cohort, to model the mortality improvements for various marital statuses. Because of a linear dependence in the parameters of the age-period-cohort model, we used a computer simulation to choose the appropriate estimation method. Based on Taiwan's marital data, we found that married persons have significantly lower mortality rates than the single, and if converting the difference into a life insurance policy, the discount amount is even larger than that for smokers/nonsmokers.     

Olympic soccer comes to Birmingham: managing a nonprofit organization's accounting and finance in a public setting

This case is based on the experience of one of the authors as financial director of the Birmingham, Alabama soccer venue site for the 1996 Summer Olympic Games held in Atlanta, GA, USA. Although many of the circumstances surrounding the case are based on actual events, the people, data and scenarios contained in the case are fictional. However, the case is written carefully to create as realistic an environment as possible. As the only member of the Birmingham Soccer Committee with accounting expertise, the financial director is responsible for identifying and addressing issues involving accounting and finance. The primary learning objective for this case is to provide students with experience actively making decisions in an unstructured environment in which they have sole responsibility for accounting and financial issues. When addressing the issues in the case, students are required to use a decision framework based on a comparison of personal principles and goals to the committee's mission and strategy.     

The American Jobs Creation Act and its impact on deferred compensation: reassessment from a business perspective

The American Jobs Creation Act (AJCA), which was signed into law in October 2004, will have an impact on almost every deferred compensation program in the United States. This article argues that as companies continue to evaluate the transition alternatives under AJCA and contemplate the necessary changes to the plan program, companies also should consider simultaneously addressing broader issues surrounding nonqualified deferred compensation arrangements. These include ongoing business purpose, financial planning considerations, education of participants, corporate governance considerations and the potential implications to international assignees.     

Research Misconduct in Accounting Literature: A Survey of the Most Prolific Researchers' Actions and Beliefs

Incidents of research misconduct, especially falsification, in the hard sciences and medicine have been widely reported. Motives for misconduct include professional advancement and personal recognition. Accounting academics are under the same tenure, promotion and recognition pressures as other academics; and, without the life-and-death issues of medical research, rationalizing misconduct in accounting research seems much easier. It is reasonable to assume that dishonesty has occurred, even if little evidence exists about its prevalence. Further, accounting research can influence tax policy and market conditions, affecting people's lives. This study is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to survey accounting researchers directly as to their ethical practices; it uses the randomized response technique of addressing sensitive questions. To maximize its relevance to the most respected accounting research, this questionnaire was sent only to the most prolific researchers at U.S. colleges and universities—those who have published in the 'top thirty' accounting journals. The results indicate that serious misconduct has occurred among these established accounting researchers. The estimated percentage of seriously tainted articles in the top thirty accounting journals, based on self-reporting, is about 4 per cent, while the respondents on average believe that about 21 per cent of the literature is tainted. Faculty who were tenured more recently provide higher estimates of the falsification rate, and attribute more of the cause to external factors like tenure pressure. The article concludes by discussing implications and offering policy recommendations.     

Reflections on the Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Accounting Project

The purpose of the interdisciplinary perspectives on accounting (IPA) project is to have an impact on the theory and practice of accounting as well as the surrounding social processes. The following discussion outlines the birth and maturation of the contemporary IPA project and concludes that the undertaking is divided along methodological, philosophical, and ideological lines. In addressing these issues, we propose to clarify and differentiate the nature and purpose of the contemporary IPA and critical accounting projects. The interdisciplinary work is directed generally toward a more complete understanding of accounting theory and practice and of the broader social institution of accountancy. The purpose of interdisciplinary studies is to heighten the awareness of those parties who are implicated in its enactment. The critical accounting project is viewed as a subset of the interdisciplinary project and provides a focus for those who wish to devise an approach that consciously privileges the linkage of knowledge to the pursuit of a radical political process. Whatever labels are employed, it must be recognized that though participants in the interdisciplinary project might disagree as to its source, intensity, and influence, the totalizing influence of hegemonic power is present in society and the world. This is so whether one classifies that world as modern or postmodern, or whether we see change as possible on a global level or only within some local sphere; issues of human rights, human dignity, and the human condition must be of central concern. Regardless of the interdisciplinary origin or grounding, we must continually affirm a commitment to a more socially responsible institution of accountancy. In our view, the critical accounting project provides a focus for those who wish to devise an approach to accounting studies that consciously privileges the realization of the philosophy of praxis. Those who choose the critical accounting project must recognize, however, that without an ever expanding interdisciplinary horizon, the critical project is likely to degenerate either into tyranny or quietism.