ACCOUNTING REFORMS: DETERMINANTS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS' CHOICES

The introduction of accrual accounting in Italian Local Governments has been mandated in a way that permits, and in fact encourages, a merely formal compliance. Local Governments must produce accrual‐based financial statements, but double‐entry bookkeeping is not mandatory, nor may traditional budgetary accounting be abandoned. Why, then, should they bother to introduce an integrated system of budgetary and accrual accounting? In this paper, we empirically investigate the determinants of Local Government's choices of accounting innovation. According to our results, ‘rational’ elements such as complexity, types of activities performed, presence of surpluses, and access to capital markets are seemingly unhelpful in explaining why a Local Government decides to introduce accrual accounting. What counts are ‘institutional’ and cultural explanations, such as the perceptions of CFOs and the North‐South divide.     

Convolution and composition of totally positive random variables in economics

This paper studies a class of multidimensional screening models where different type dimensions can be aggregated into a single-dimensional sufficient statistic. The paper applies results of totally positive functions to show that some critical properties of distributions of asymmetric information parameters, such as increasing hazard rate, monotone likelihood ratio, and single-peakedness are preserved under convolution or composition. Under some general conditions, these invariance results also provide a natural ordering of alternative screening mechanisms. I illustrate how these preservation results provide a unifying framework to interpret several contributions in economic models of adverse selection, moral hazard, and voting.     

Asymmetric partnerships

We study asymmetric partnerships and show that efficient dissolution is possible if critical types (where participation constraints bind) are equal. Ownership structures guaranteeing equal critical types always exist, but can be extremely unequal.     

Factors Influencing Corporate Environmental Disclosure

In this paper, we have studied the factors that influence the environmental disclosures of Italian listed companies. We also aimed to verify the effects produced by the introduction of specific legislation (albeit of a voluntary nature) on environmental disclosures. The analysis has the advantage of including all of the informational documents produced by the company. The analysis shows an (excessively) low level of disclosure of environmental information by the companies examined. The econometric analysis then shows, contrary to our hypothesis and the results of previous analyses carried out in other countries, a negative and statistically significant relationship between environmental disclosures, the presences of minority shareholders and large auditors and the listing of the company, including in foreign markets. We lastly observed that the introduction of ad hoc legislation as purely voluntary only affects the contents of quantitative environmental disclosures, which are unsuitable for a highly industrialized developed country. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Phasing Out Market Mechanisms in the Italian National Health Service

The Italian National Health Service introduced quad-markets, regionalization, and managerialism in the 1990s. Under quasi-markets, large providers have been separated from purchasers and funded by 'activity'—the quantity, mix, and possibly appropriateness of services provided. Under regionalization, each of Italy's 21 regional governments is able to design its own funding arrangements. The regions have generally been trying to mitigate the effects of quasi-markets and are now increasingly 'governing' them. The system is producing some desirable results, including a shift from ordinary to same-day hospitalizations and a reduction in length of stay. Hospital admissions increased initially, but only where the regions encouraged this. Financial effects are more controversial.     

Sul ruolo dei riassunti esaustivi ai fini della previsione in contesto bayesiano (1a parte)

Si studia una nozione di riassunto esaustivo, che diremo a fini predittivi e che è già stata oggetto d'indagine da parte di F. Spizzichino sotto diversa denominazione. Si pone in evidenza la naturalezza di questa nuova definizione che, senza alcuna restrizione, può essere applicata in ogni tipo di ragionamento induttivo. Nella prima parte della ricerca, dopo alcune esemplificazioni sull'applicazione in alcuni tipici problemi inferenziali con particolare riguardo alla costruzione di modelli ipotetici a partire da considerazioni squisitamente predittive del concentto di riassunto esaustivo a fini predittivi, se ne studiano le principali proprietà. Nella seconda parte (che apparirà in un prossimo numero di questa Rivista) se ne analizzeranno i rapporti con le più abituali nozioni di riassunto esaustivo.

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In this paper (first part of a wider work; the second part will appear in the next issue of this journal) we support the idea that the major objective of inductive reasoning is the distribution for outcomes of any sample not jet observed (predictive distribution) Parameters are a secondary device that can ultimately be justified and can lend some simplification.According to this point of view, we study a notion of prediction sufficiency introduced by F. Spizzichino (1978). Many of the results true for classical sufficient statistics apply to our predictive sufficient statistics as we demonstrate in Section 3.In the second part we analyse sequences of predictive sufficient statistics and their relations with classical sufficient statistics for the parameters which are limits of these sequences. The examples of Section 2 represent a first limited approach to this problem.

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Lavoro eseguito nell'ambito del GNAFA-CNR.     

DYNAMIC PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION WITH A DEFAULTABLE SECURITY AND REGIME‐SWITCHING

We consider a portfolio optimization problem in a defaultable market with finitely‐many economical regimes, where the investor can dynamically allocate her wealth among a defaultable bond, a stock, and a money market account. The market coefficients are assumed to depend on the market regime in place, which is modeled by a finite state continuous time Markov process. By separating the utility maximization problem into a predefault and postdefault component, we deduce two coupled Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations for the post‐ and predefault optimal value functions, and show a novel verification theorem for their solutions. We obtain explicit constructions of value functions and investment strategies for investors with logarithmic and Constant Relative Risk Aversion utilities, and provide a precise characterization of the directionality of the bond investment strategies in terms of corporate returns, forward rates, and expected recovery at default. We illustrate the dependence of the optimal strategies on time, losses given default, and risk aversion level of the investor through a detailed economic and numerical analysis.     

PRICING AND SEMIMARTINGALE REPRESENTATIONS OF VULNERABLE CONTINGENT CLAIMS IN REGIME‐SWITCHING MARKETS

Using a suitable change of probability measure, we obtain a Poisson series representation for the arbitrage‐free price process of vulnerable contingent claims in a regime‐switching market driven by an underlying continuous‐time Markov process. As a result of this representation, along with a short‐time asymptotic expansion of the claim's price process, we develop an efficient novel method for pricing claims whose payoffs may depend on the full path of the underlying Markov chain. The proposed approach is applied to price not only simple European claims such as defaultable bonds, but also a new type of path‐dependent claims that we term self‐decomposable, as well as the important class of vulnerable call and put options on a stock. We provide a detailed error analysis and illustrate the accuracy and computational complexity of our method on several market traded instruments, such as defaultable bond prices, barrier options, and vulnerable call options. Using again our Poisson series representation, we show differentiability in time of the predefault price function of European vulnerable claims, which enables us to rigorously deduce Feynman‐Ka? representations for the predefault pricing function and new semimartingale representations for the price process of the vulnerable claim under both risk‐neutral and objective probability measures.     

The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model

The empirical relevance of models of competitive storage arbitrage in explaining commodity price behavior has been seriously challenged in a series of pathbreaking papers by [Deaton and Laroque, 1992], [Deaton and Laroque, 1995] and [Deaton and Laroque, 1996]. Here we address their major criticism, that the model is in general unable to explain the degree of serial correlation observed in the prices of twelve major commodities. First, we present a simple numerical version of their model which, contrary to Deaton and Laroque (1992), can generate the high levels of serial correlation observed in commodity prices, if it is parameterized to generate realistic levels of price variation. Then, after estimating the [Deaton and Laroque, 1995] and [Deaton and Laroque, 1996] model using their data set, model specification and econometric approach, we show that the use of a much finer grid to approximate the equilibrium price function yields quite different estimates for most commodities. Results are obtained for coffee, copper, jute, maize, palm oil, sugar and tin that support the specifications of the storage model with positive constant marginal storage cost and no deterioration as in Gustafson (1958a). Consumption demand has a low response to price and, except for sugar, stockouts are infrequent. The observed magnitudes of serial correlation of price match those implied by the estimated model.     

THE WELFARE PERFORMANCE OF SEQUENTIAL PRICING MECHANISMS*

Consumers are commonly required to subscribe to particular tariff options before uncertainty regarding their future purchases gets resolved. Since the general comparison of welfare performance of different pricing mechanisms is ambiguous, this article empirically evaluates the expected welfare associated with standard nonlinear pricing and optional tariffs by using information directly linked to the type of individual consumers. Results show that tariffs composed of nonlinear options do not necessarily outperform simpler pricing strategies in terms of expected profits. Furthermore, evidence suggests that a menu of optional two‐part tariffs dominates any other pricing strategy from an expected welfare perspective.