Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence from Shanghai

The export-led growth hypothesis is tested using monthly time series data for Shanghai (one of the major exporting provinces in China) using the Granger no-causality procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) in a vector autoregresion (VAR) model. This paper builds on the existing literature in three distinct ways. This is the first study of the export-led growth hypothesis which employs a regional dataset (Shanghai). Second, the paper follows Riezman et al . (1996) in controlling for the growth of imports to avoid a spurious causality result; and finally, the use of the methodology by Toda and Yamamoto is expected to improve the standard F -statistics in the causality test process. The research finds one-way Granger causality running from GDP to exports     

基于制度理论的中国B2B发展关键障碍因素探索

中国B2B发展的障碍不乏有人探讨,但是以前的研究者将不同模式的B2B当成一个整体,且论述缺乏理论依据。本文试图从制度和企业吸收能力的角度,构筑一个整合的理论框架来探讨不同的B2B制度模式的发展障碍。从制度的层面,我们说明了制度环境因素和旧有的制度对积聚型B2B模式的发展造成了障碍,尤其是当B2B运营者希图提供全程交易时。对于供应链型B2B,我们提出,由于新的B2B制度还处于萌芽期,企业B2B吸收能力是其发展的重要制约因素。同时,旧有的制度通过制约企业对B2B的吸收能力,间接制约供应链B2B模式的出现。     

金融市场发展、外汇储备积累与经济增长--基于国别门限面板模型的分析

外汇储备持续增长已成为多个国家的经济负担,然而不能忽视外汇储备增长对经济发展的积极影响。基于新兴市场各国短期内无最优方法改善高额外汇储备积累难题的假设条件进行研究,试图寻找能够将外汇储备的积极效应最大化的途径。利用27国相关数据建立门限面板模型后,分析不同金融市场发展水平下外汇储备对经济增长的宏观经济效应。研究结果表明：在发达国家和新兴市场国家,外汇储备均对经济增长具有积极影响。但是,不同的金融市场发展水平也会限制外汇储备的经济效应。金融市场发展水平越高的国家,外汇储备对经济增长的促进作用更为明显。     

废旧动力锂电池回收利用法规的现状及对策

对国内外与锂电池回收相关的法规进行分析和比较,针对如何完善我国电池回收利用产业的法规体系,提出了规范我国废旧动力锂电池回收产业链,加大政府扶持力度,发挥行业协会协调作用,建立电池回收专项基金和加大促进再生资源循环发展的宣传力度等建议及对策。     

基于普查数据的中国劳动适龄人口分析

基于 2 0 0 0年人口普查数据 ,对中国劳动适龄人口的基本态势作了分析和概括 ,主要涉及劳动适龄人口的数量、增长率、自然结构、受教育程度以及劳动适龄人口分布与投资分布相互匹配的关系。中国劳动适龄人口总量庞大 ,增长迅速 ,其性别比下降 ,中位年龄增大 ,受教育程度不高 ,且存在着悬殊的地区差异。如何化解劳动适龄人口的巨大压力 ,改善就业状况 ,将是中国在今后一段很长时期内的重大问题     

浅谈金融生态环境的构成及建设

近年来,为提升金融业的实力、满足经济发展的需要和应对未来外资金融机构的挑战,中国政府加大了银行、保险、证券等金融机构的改革力度。但是,单纯地对金融企业进行改革,不涉及到其生存环境的改善,效果难以显现。文章借用生物学的生态环境概念,分析了中国金融生态环境的构成要素,强调在加强金融企业自身建设的同时,不应忽视外部生态环境的建设,并给出了改善金融生态环境的几点对策。     

债券组合Theta对冲的实证研究

本文推导了Diebold-Li广义久期向量模型下的Theta,并利用上交所国债数据进行实证研究。结果表明,在久期匹配的条件下引入凸度匹配或Theta匹配均可减小风险对冲误差,且引入凸度匹配时风险对冲误差更小。     

多核式中卫型产业集群的网络结构分析--以沈阳装备制造业集群为例

“单核式”与“多核式”是中卫型产业集群的两种基本网络结构。以多核式中卫型产业集群作为研究对象,对其进行概念界定,指出其网络结构具有多个中心结点、内部合作关系密切、结点凝聚成小团体、中心结点相互关联等特征,并据此选取了社会网络分析方法中的中心性、黏性、凝聚子群、核心边缘结构作为网络结构指标。运用这些指标,对沈阳装备制造业集群的网络结构进行了实例分析。研究发现：该集群网络中,各产业部门的核心企业充当了中心结点,同一产业部门的企业密切合作组成凝聚子群,核心企业之间关联紧密形成核心区。这些网络结构特征是其获取生产协作、资源配置和知识创新等竞争优势的重要保证。针对该集群网络黏性较低的现状,最后提出相应的网络结构优化建议。     

How do agency problems affect firm value? – Evidence from China

Using newly available data, we examine the effects of the agency conflicts between ultimate controlling shareholders and minority shareholders in China's publicly listed firms between 2004 and 2009. We measure the severity of these agency problems by the excess control rights of the ultimate controlling shareholders. We show that higher excess control rights are associated with significantly lower firm value. We identify two channels through which the excess control rights affect firm value: (1) related-party loan guarantees, and (2) legal violations. We find that higher excess control rights are associated with significantly larger amounts of related-party loan guarantees (scaled by assets) for non-state and private firms, but not for state-owned firms. We find that, for non-state and private firms, the excess controls rights are associated with (1) significantly higher probability that the firm will issue value-destroying related-party loan guarantees and (2) significantly worse stock market reactions to the announcements of related-party loan guarantees. However, these results do not hold for state-owned firms. We also find that higher excess control rights are associated with significantly higher probability, frequency and severity of legal violations for non-state and private firms, but not for state-owned firms.     

The role of “other information” in analysts’ forecasts in understanding stock return volatility

This study identifies “other information” in analysts’ forecasts as a legitimate proxy for future cash flows and examines its incremental role in explaining stock return volatility. We suggest that “other information” contains information about fundamentals beyond that reflected in current financial statements and reflects firms’ fundamentals on a more timely basis than dividends or earnings. Using standardized regressions, we find volatility increases when current “other information” is more uncertain and increases more in response to unfavorable news compared to favorable news. Variance decomposition analysis shows that the variance contribution of “other information” dominates that of expected-return news. The incremental role of “other information” is at least half of the effect of earnings in explaining future volatility. The results are more pronounced for firms with poor information environments. Overall, our results highlight the importance of including “other information” as an additional cash-flow proxy in future studies of stock prices and volatility.