Der neue Standard zur bilanziellen Abbildung von Versicherungsverträgen (IFRS 17) – Eine kritische Analyse der Auswirkungen auf die Versicherungsbranche

The new standard for the accounting of insurance contracts (IFRS 17) will entail substantial changes for the insurance industry. In the following article the new standard is critically analyzed. First and foremost the coming valuation model, the so-called building block approach, is presented which will be the basis for all insurance contracts within the scope of IFRS 17. (For certain insurance contracts, especially those with direct participation features, or for less complex or short-term insurance contracts, there are some modifications.) To be more precise, IFRS 17 introduces an enterprise-specific valuation approach that is grounded on the so-called fulfilment value. This fulfilment value is determined by four separate building blocks (fulfilment-cashflow, discount rate, risk margin and contractual service margin), which will be addressed in detail. Finally, major changes in performed accounting practices that insurance enterprises are confronted with and will have to adapt to in their financial statements and accounts are pointed out.     

Using Market Expectations to Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Crude Oil Market

The wide fluctuations of oil prices from 2003 to 2008 have attracted the interest of academics and policymakers. A popular view is that these fluctuations were caused by speculative bubbles due to the increased financialization of oil futures markets. This hypothesis, however, is difficult to examine since the fundamental price of oil is unobservable and, therefore, econometric evidence in favor of bubbles may actually be due to misspecified market fundamentals. In this paper, we extend two recently proposed methodologies for bubble detection that alleviate this problem by using market expectations of future prices. Both methodologies provide no evidence of speculative bubbles.     

Monetary Policy,Trend Inflation,and Unemployment Volatility

The literature has long agreed that the DMP model (after Diamond 1982, Mortensen 1982, Pissarides 1985) with search and matching frictions in the labor market can deliver large volatilities in labor market quantities, consistent with empirical data, only if there is at least some wage stickiness. I show, however, that the model can deliver nontrivial volatilities without wage stickiness, as long as it has price dispersion and nonzero long‐run inflation rates. I find that by keeping inflation at a positive rate, monetary policy may be accountable for the large standard deviations observed on labor market variables. In addition, the Shimer (2005) puzzle disappears under monetary policy shocks.     

Short term real earnings management prior to stock repurchases

This study examines whether firms engage in income-decreasing real earnings management before open market stock repurchases to reduce the cost of stock buybacks. In the short run, managers have the ability to underproduce inventory and increase discretionary expenditures, thus decreasing current period earnings. We find that managers engage in both of these activities before repurchasing their firms’ shares, especially the latter. Also, companies increase their discretionary spending before making repurchases to a greater extent following the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act of 2002 as well as when they are financially healthy and have high marginal tax rates. Finally, we document that firms with the most income-decreasing real earnings management experience the largest positive abnormal returns during the subsequent period. Our findings highlight the importance of considering firms’ use of real operating decisions, as opposed to just opportunistic disclosure practices, around significant corporate events, such as the repurchase of their own stock.     

Measuring the effect of watch-preceded and direct rating changes: a note on credit markets

This paper analyzes the importance of distinguishing between watch-preceded and direct rating changes for the credit default swap (CDS) market by examining a total of 2991 rating change announcements, 1526 watchlist placement announcements, and 430 rating affirmations following watchlist placements. The results show that watch-preceded downgrades do not lead to significant CDS market reactions, while direct downgrades are associated with a significant increase in CDS spread levels. Likewise, we document that watchlist placements for downgrade lead to increases in firms’ CDS spreads. CDS markets do not react to rating upgrades but watchlist placements for upgrade result in an immediate decrease in CDS spreads. Rating affirmations following watchlist placements for downgrade lead to slight reductions in CDS spreads, while affirmations following watchlist placements for upgrade have no effect on CDS spreads. These findings demonstrate the importance for empirical research on the interaction between credit markets and rating announcements to differentiate between watch-preceded and direct rating changes, particularly for rating downgrades.     

Financial statements based bank risk aggregation

One of the major challenges involved in risk aggregation is the lack of risk data. Recently, researchers have found that mapping financial statements into risk types is a satisfactory way to resolve the problem of data shortage and inconsistency. Nevertheless, ignoring off-balance sheet (OBS) items has so far been regarded as the usual practice in risk aggregation, which may lead to deviations in conclusions. Hence, we improve the financial statements based risk aggregation framework by mapping OBS items into risk types. Based on 487 quarterly financial statements from all 16 listed Chinese commercial banks over the period 2007–2014, we empirically study whether the overall impact of OBS activities and the individual impact of each of the OBS risk types on total risk depend on bank size. Moreover, this research divides the sample into two subsets, during and after the subprime crisis, to find out how the subprime crisis affects risks of Chinese banks. Our empirical results show that although OBS credit risk is positively linked to total risk while OBS operational risk is negatively linked to total risk for both large and small banks, the overall impact of OBS activities on total risk depends on bank size. The overall OBS activities are positively related to the large bank’s total risk while they are negatively related to the small bank’s total risk. Besides, we also found that it is the increase of liquidity risk and market risk that leads to the larger total risk of Chinese banks during the subprime crisis.     

Stock price informativeness on the sensitivity of strategic M&A investment to Q

Using a strategic merger sample that covers the period from 1985 to 2011, we find that the acquirer’s stock price firm-specific information, the new information created by investors about the value of firm fundamentals, increases the positive sensitivity of strategic merger investment to the acquirer’s Q; the target’s stock price firm-specific information increases the negative sensitivity of merger investment to the target’s Q. These results suggest that managers learn from financial markets in identifying strategic merger investment opportunities by transferring assets from poorly managed firms to well managed firms. In addition, the target’s stock price firm-specific information itself increases the acquisition size, indicating that informed acquirer managers are more likely to take out large merger investment. Last but not the least, stock price informativeness increases merger synergies and post-merger performance, suggesting that informed managers make better merger investment that increases shareholder value. Our study contributes to the recent increasing stream of studies on managerial learning from the market.     

The pricing of common exchange rate factors in the U.S. equity market

We extend Lustig et al. (Rev Financ Stud 24:3731–3777, 2011) and Brusa et al. (The International CAPM Redux, 2014) by examining if the common exchange rate factors, the dollar and carry factors, are priced in the US equity market. Our results suggest that while the carry factor has incremental pricing information relative to the US market factor, the dollar factor (or the trade-weighted exchange rate index) is redundant. Our results have important theoretical as well as practical implications. Theoretically, we suggest that financial economists take an endogenous perspective of exchange rates. Practically, we suggest that practitioners incorporate in the carry factor to measure the exposure of exchange rate risk.     

The dispersion anomaly and analyst recommendations

The main objective of this study is to distinguish whether the forecast dispersion anomaly is due to Miller’s (J Finance 32(4):1151–1168, 1977) overpricing hypothesis or idiosyncratic risk, by conditioning the sample on “buy” and “sell” consensus recommendations. Observations on the long and short possibilities provided to the investors by the analyst stock recommendations can help us infer on the impact of short sale constraints even though they are not directly observed. This study provides strong evidence that the impact of analyst forecast dispersion is more pronounced in the group of stocks that receive the least favorable recommendations in a given period, even after controlling for the idiosyncratic risk, Fama–French factors (J Financ Econ 33(1):3–56, 1993; J Financ Econ 116(1):1–22, 2015) and even short-sale constraints. These results are consistent with Miller’s (1977) hypothesis, according to which if short-sale constraints bind, high opinion divergence stocks become overpriced and hence have low subsequent returns.     

The effects on investment incentives of an allowance for corporate equity tax system: the Belgian case as an example

The Modigliani–Miller theorem serves as the standard finance paradigm on corporate capital structure and managerial decision making. Implicitly, it is assumed that the market possesses full information about the firm. However, if firm managers have insider information, they may attempt to ‘signal’ changes in the firm’s financial structure and, in competitive equilibrium, shareholders will draw deductions from such signals. Empirical work shows that the value of underlying firms rises with leverage because investors expect such firms to implement positive NPV projects. We empirically examine this view using a sample of debt issue announcements by publicly traded firms listed on the London Stock Exchange. We argue that the timing of debt issues is fundamental in determining the relationship between leverage and risk-adjusted returns. We show that an announcing firm’s intrinsic value may not rise depending on when management publicly ‘signals’ changes in their firm’s capital structure. Specifically, we show that risk-adjusted returns rise positively for firms that make debt announcements during normal economic conditions while they tend to decline for firms making debt announcements during recessionary periods. During recessionary periods, market risk and loss aversion rise and investors focus less on the potential growth of debt announcing firms and focus more on potential losses instead. We conclude that the timing of new debt is of paramount importance and managers’ inability to prudently time such announcements can lead to exacerbated levels of systematic risk coupled with a significant erosion in shareholder wealth.