“Panelizing” Repeated Cross Sections

This paper considers the implementation of a non-stationary, heterogeneous Markov model for the analysis of binary dependent variables in a time series of repeated cross-sectional (RCS) surveys. The model offers the opportunity to estimate entry and exit transition probabilities and to examine the effects of time-constant and time-varying covariates on the hazards. We show how maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters can be obtained by Fishers method-of-scoring and how to estimate both fixed and time-varying covariate effects. The model is exemplified with an analysis of the labor force participation decision of Dutch and West German women using ISSP (and other) data from 10 annual Dutch surveys conducted between 1987 and 1996 and 7 annual West German surveys conducted between 1988 and 1994. Some open problems concerning the application of the model are discussed.     

When are adaptive expectations rational? A generalization

This note presents a simple generalization of the adaptive expectations mechanism in which the learning parameter is time variant. Expectations generated in this way minimize mean squared forecast errors for any linear state space model.     

Branding Decisions for Retailers’ Private Labels

Umbrella branding (UB) strategies for manufacturers’ products have received considerable attention in the literature. Not much is known about this strategy for private labels. Using a game-theoretic approach, we reassess the benefits of introducing a private label in a distinct category, and provide favorable conditions for the retailer to implement umbrella or individual branding for his private labels. We find that (1) UB leads to lower wholesale and retail prices for both national brands; (2) national brands’ manufacturers prefer individual branding over UB for private labels; and (3) the profitability of UB is not always guaranteed for the retailer.     

Reflections on the Dasgupta Review on the Economics of Biodiversity

Environmental and Resource Economics - The Dasgupta Review provides a rich overview of the economics of biodiversity, paints a bleak picture of the current state of biodiversity, and is a call to...     

Does Monetary Policy Respond to Uncertainty? Evidence from Australia

We construct a novel measure of uncertainty using expert monetary policy recommendation data for Australia. Our results suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tends to lower the cash rate when expert uncertainty is high. This result is robust to using other uncertainty measures.     

Trade-threshold Effect on Inflation in Tunisia: New Evidence Resulting from a Nonlinear Approach

Trade openness is an important determinant of the inflation process. The effect of trade openness on inflation, however, is still an issue of debate at both theoretical and empirical levels. This study tried to provide a contribution to the literature by examining the relationship between inflation and trade openness in Tunisia over the period 1975Q1-2015Q4 using a nonlinear model. The originality of this study stems from the fact that it is the first investigation considering both the Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with the Regime Shifts and Threshold Regression model. The linear model confirms the existence of a positive relationship between inflation and trade in Tunisia. Yet, considering the nonlinear model, trade openness growth and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation growth show a statistically significant negative link as long as the trade openness evolution does not exceed the threshold. Nevertheless, if the trade openness growth is higher than the threshold, integrating the trade positively affects CPI inflation. Furthermore, a positive influence of Money supply growth on this type of inflation was noticed in Tunisia in all the considered regimes proving the effect of monetary factors on inflation level. Consequently, trade openness could be used to control inflation in Tunisia.     

农民住房财产权抵押能否激发农村金融市场*——基于银行贷款数据的实证分析

扩展抵押品范围是缓解农村金融困境的重要途径。在这一思路下，农民住房财产权抵押被寄予厚望，成为近年来农村政策改革的重要方向。本文使用2010—2016年1 024家农信社和农商行的数据，利用2015年12月国务院在天津市蓟州区等59个试点县（市、区）开展为期两年的农民住房财产权抵押贷款试点这一“准自然实验”，对农民住房财产权抵押对涉农贷款供给的影响进行了检验。本文认为，现阶段农民住房面临着价值评估难、抵押物处置难的问题，抵押效果不佳。实证结果显示，农民住房财产权抵押没有显著增加涉农贷款供给，对农村金融的供给作用有限。本文在考虑了农民住房财产权抵押对其他担保方式的替代作用、农地经营权抵押和“三块地”改革的影响之后，上述结果依然稳健。本文的政策启示是，政府应着力做好农房抵押贷款改革的配套措施，推动宅基地制度改革，探索扩大农民住房财产权的受让范围，充分挖掘住房财产权的价值潜力，缓解抵押物处置难问题。