Alternative econometric implementations of multi-factor models of the U.S. financial markets

This paper analyzes the empirical performance of two alternative ways in which multi-factor models with time-varying risk exposures and premia may be estimated. The first method echoes the seminal two-pass approach introduced by Fama and MacBeth (1973). The second approach is based on a Bayesian latent mixture model with breaks in risk exposures and idiosyncratic volatility. Our application to monthly, 1980–2010 U.S. data on stock, bond, and publicly traded real estate returns shows that the classical, two-stage approach that relies on a nonparametric, rolling window estimation of time-varying betas yields results that are unreasonable. There is evidence that most portfolios of stocks, bonds, and REITs have been grossly over-priced. On the contrary, the Bayesian approach yields sensible results and a few factor risk premia are precisely estimated with a plausible sign. Predictive log-likelihood scores indicate that discrete breaks in both risk exposures and variances are required to fit the data.     

Towards monetary constitutionalism in Italy

Various facts which belong to the past, present, and future of Italy, which concern both politics and economics, and which are relevant within a broad discussion of monetary policy support the request for a constitutionalization of the target of monetary stability. The authors are grateful to James M. Buchanan for his encouragement in carrying out the research and to an anonymous referee of this journal for his helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

Helping hand or grabbing hand?: Politicians, supervision regime, financial structure and market view

Almost all the literature on the evolution of the financial supervision architecture stresses the importance of financial market characteristics in determining the recent trend toward more unification. But in the real world it is not always clear to what extent market features matter. We present two complementary approaches to gain insights in the above relationship, focusing on the political cost and benefit analysis. First, a cross-country study tests two alternative theories—the helping hand and the grabbing hand view of government—to determine the impact of the market structure on the supervisory setting. Our evidence seems more consistent with the grabbing hand view, considering the degree of banking concentration a proxy of the capture risk and presuming the market demonstrates a preference for consolidation of supervisory powers. Second, the results of a survey among financial CEOs in Italy confirm a market preference for a more consolidated supervisory regime but reveal only weak consistency between the views of the policymakers and those of the market operators.     

Sul ruolo dei riassunti esaustivi ai fini della previsione in contesto bayesiano (1a parte)

Si studia una nozione di riassunto esaustivo, che diremo a fini predittivi e che è già stata oggetto d'indagine da parte di F. Spizzichino sotto diversa denominazione. Si pone in evidenza la naturalezza di questa nuova definizione che, senza alcuna restrizione, può essere applicata in ogni tipo di ragionamento induttivo. Nella prima parte della ricerca, dopo alcune esemplificazioni sull'applicazione in alcuni tipici problemi inferenziali con particolare riguardo alla costruzione di modelli ipotetici a partire da considerazioni squisitamente predittive del concentto di riassunto esaustivo a fini predittivi, se ne studiano le principali proprietà. Nella seconda parte (che apparirà in un prossimo numero di questa Rivista) se ne analizzeranno i rapporti con le più abituali nozioni di riassunto esaustivo.

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In this paper (first part of a wider work; the second part will appear in the next issue of this journal) we support the idea that the major objective of inductive reasoning is the distribution for outcomes of any sample not jet observed (predictive distribution) Parameters are a secondary device that can ultimately be justified and can lend some simplification.According to this point of view, we study a notion of prediction sufficiency introduced by F. Spizzichino (1978). Many of the results true for classical sufficient statistics apply to our predictive sufficient statistics as we demonstrate in Section 3.In the second part we analyse sequences of predictive sufficient statistics and their relations with classical sufficient statistics for the parameters which are limits of these sequences. The examples of Section 2 represent a first limited approach to this problem.

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Lavoro eseguito nell'ambito del GNAFA-CNR.     

Reforming regulation and supervision in Europe: Five missing lessons from the financial crisis

There is general agreement that financial regulation and supervision must be improved. But are the proposed reforms adequate to the task? What criteria should they fulfil in order to be effective?     

Breaking Through Complexity: Visual and Conceptual Dimensions in Logo Evaluation across Exposures

This research investigates the effects of visual and conceptual complexity (VC and CC) on brand logo evaluations at single and multiple exposures. Building upon the theoretical distinction between visual and conceptual constructs and on a processing fluency account, it is proposed that the effects of VC and CC on attitude toward the logo change across exposures following opposite patterns, and are driven by the mechanisms of perceptual fluency and conceptual fluency, respectively. The results of a hybrid experimental study suggest that the initially positive effect of VC on attitude toward the logo becomes negative with multiple exposures, whereas the initially negative effect of CC on attitude toward the logo becomes positive as exposures increase. The findings contribute to research on consumer reactions to the visual elements of brands, and offer guidelines to brand managers and logo designers for leveraging on VC and CC, as well as on the number of exposures, in order to raise the attractiveness of logos.     

Local variety and innovation performance in the EU textile and clothing industry

ABSTRACT

A large body of the literature showed that related variety at local level is more relevant than unrelated variety for explaining the innovation performance of firms. Knowledge relatedness is usually measured by considering activities within the same industry (i.e. the same two-digit code) while activities in different industries are associated with unrelated variety. This approach is challenged by the increasing relevance of transversal technologies, i.e. technologies that are developed and applied in rather different sectors. As a result, between industry variety (i.e. unrelated variety) is expected to be more important than within industry variety (i.e. related variety). We test this hypothesis by examining the innovation activities of firms in the textile and clothing industry. The innovation model of these firms is characterized by low investment in R&D, little capabilities for autonomous innovation and dependence from knowledge suppliers belonging to different sectors. The empirical analysis, carried out over the 1996–2014 period at the EU NUTS2 level, shows that between industry variety has a greater impact than within industry variety for the innovative performance of firms.     

Ownership as R&D incentive in business groups

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are supposed to be less likely to conduct formal R&D because of the lack of financial resources, weaker competencies, and the absence of scale and scope economies. These limitations may be overcome when an SME belongs to a business group. Empirical studies have shown that firms belonging to business groups have a higher propensity to engage in R&D. We demonstrate that this higher propensity depends on the ownership of controlled companies, besides the presence of coordination mechanisms. We develop a model, and we empirically test its predictions using a data set of Italian SMEs operating in the manufacturing sector. From the model we derive three main implications: (1) there is no difference in R&D propensity between standalone firms and firms at the bottom of groups; (2) head and intermediate firms have a higher R&D propensity than standalone firms and firms at the bottom of the group; (3) the intensity of R&D depends on the ownership of controlled firms and on their size. Overall, the results of the empirical analysis are in accordance with the implications of the model.     

‘Managing successful change in the public sector’: a view from the consultants’ world

Our paper presents the results of a survey on the perceptions of 680 Italian public-sector consultants on the drivers of successful organizational change according to Fernandez and Rainey’s model. The results show that the consultants mostly confirm the model, though recognizing that the various drivers have different degrees of relevance. A clear vision and plan for change and the top management’s commitment are seen as central in change processes, whereas interestingly, resource availability and a comprehensive approach to change appear to play a less relevant role.