真实盈余管理的协同共治——基于地区差异视角的研究

真实盈余管理的自由发展已经成为资本市场难以根治的顽疾。基于BMA方法研究2008-2015年A股上市公司真实盈余管理的表现和治理状况,探索宏微观制度因素差异对真实盈余管理的作用影响。结果显示:(1)近年来上市公司更倾向于经营操控来平滑利润、粉饰报表,真实盈余管理水平分布呈中东部地区高、西部地区相对较低的特征;(2)共23项5个角度的可能影响真实盈余管理的指标中,偿债能力、高管薪酬、会计弹性、盈利能力、第一大股东持股比例、托宾Q、审计事务所类型、股权相对集中度、资金占用和法治水平等指标充分地解释了真实活动操控的作用表现;而5个方面因素作用表现为,股利结构中的持股安排对真实盈余管理作用明显,公司特征是影响真实盈余管理的关键因素,     

Variations in farm consumption and their relationship to income: an empirical investigation of Illinois farm households

Empirical tests of household consumption have yielded mixed results regarding the validity of the life cycle/permanent income (LCPI) hypothesis. A significant problem with such studies is the difficulty in finding sufficient micro-level data on household expenditures. By using the recent rich quantity of such data in the Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) data for Illinois farms from 1995 to 2009, the study reported here for farm households should provide more consistent results regarding the LCPI hypothesis. Applying an empirical model based on the LCPI hypothesis, this article identifies the determinants of farm consumption and the relationship to income. This study provides evidence that current income changes are not significant in explaining the consumption changes of farm households, thus supporting the LCPI hypothesis for farm households.     

Manufacturing growth and local employment multipliers in China

We study the impact of employment growth in manufacturing on job creation in the non-tradable sector for prefecture-level cities in China. Using the 2000 and 2010 Censuses of Population, we apply the shift-share approach to isolate the exogenous change of employment growth in manufacturing. For every hundred new manufacturing jobs, we find that 34 additional jobs are created in the non-tradable sector. We also show that the effect is heterogeneous along a number of dimensions. More specifically, one new job in high-technology manufacturing creates more jobs in the non-tradable sector while low-technology manufacturing employment growth has no significant multiplier effect. Among the non-tradable industries, the multiplier is the largest for wholesale, retail, and catering. Finally, the effect is also geographically heterogeneous, with the multiplier being greater for inland regions.     

It's easier to contract than to pay: Judicial independence and US municipal default in the 19th century

It is well established in the literature that an independent judiciary can act as a signal of credibility by a sovereign state and as a guarantor of creditor rights. However, to date there has been little systematic work analyzing how an independent judiciary reacts to fiscal stress and public-sector default. This article addresses that very question by evaluating how and if judicial independence affects default rates using US municipal data through the nineteenth century. Overall, the results do indicate that greater judicial independence is associated with a significantly lower likelihood of default. This channel largely occurs through the method by which a member of a state's court of last resort is selected (either appointment or popular election) and term length.     

Determinants of spectator no-show behaviour: first empirical evidence from the German Bundesliga

The analysis of stadium attendance demand has a long tradition in the economic literature. However, despite its evident merits, this previous research has been critiqued at several levels, in particular for relying on a suboptimal demand proxy, i.e. published attendance data. In this short note, we address these shortcomings by exploring a highly unique data set containing official information on spectators’ decisions of whether or not to physically attend 704 German football Bundesliga games played between August 2014 and January 2017.     

Material Offshoring: Alternate Measures

Industry measures of offshoring of material inputs are often generated using the proportionality assumption applied to aggregate import data—that the import share of each commodity used in the production process for a particular industry is similar to the import share of a commodity for the total economy. This note compares estimates of offshoring for the Canadian manufacturing sector derived using this assumption to four alternatives: two measures that use direct measures of firm‐based imports, and two hybrid measures that use both input and import information. These indirect measures are compared to survey estimates that directly assess import intensity in the production process in an effort to evaluate which indirect method yields more reasonable offshoring measures.     

Excise Tax Harmonisation in Australia at Federation

Constitutional changes at the time of Federation in Australia required the harmonisation of the excise tax rates of the former Colonies. This paper outlines the excise tax systems of the Colonies before Federation and that of the Commonwealth after Federation. Estimates are made of the consumer tax equivalent rates and of the implicit rates of protection in each Colony and in the Commonwealth after Federation. The Commonwealth Government harmonised the excise tax rates of the Colonies at about the mid‐points of the rates of the Colonies but the implicit rates of protection increased after Federation.     

In the Aftermath: Consumer Choice and the Deregulation of Australian Retail Banking, 1988–1993

This article explores whether deregulation of the Australian retail banking sector in the 1980s delivered the enhanced consumer choice that had been promised. Using new data on banking products and their usage, it analyses consumers' ability to select optimal ‘frontier’ products. It concludes that following deregulation of retail banking, product offerings underwent such tumultuous change that the scope for effective consumer choice was severely constrained. While there were improvements towards the end of the period, progress was not assisted by the banks' strategy of proliferating and re‐bundling products. Consequently, the anticipated improvements to consumer choice were slow to arrive.     

Forecasting household debt with latent transition modelling

Latent transition modelling (LTM) was used to forecast household debt patterns. A model based on three waves (2011, 2013 and 2015) and over 36,000 responses from the biennial panel study of Polish households – Social Diagnosis – provided data for these forecasts. Based on the fact that transitions between latent states are shaped by previous latent states and socio-economic covariates – age of household head, income and number of household members – we were able to demonstrate LTM as a tool to generate aggregate predictions for both medium- and long-term evolution of the household credit market. The declining tendency for household credit participation rates in Poland is expected in the longer term. In particular, the trend should be supported by decline in the proportion of mortgage debtors. The groups of households indebted for the consumption of durables and those seeking credit outside the banking sector are the groups predicted to remain stable or increase in size.     

Predicting a flash crash in the yen/dollar foreign exchange market

I examine whether the volume-synchronized probability of informed trading (VPIN) can predict a flash crash in the yen/dollar foreign exchange market. The results show that VPIN using bulk volume classification predicted a recent event. However, VPIN using order flows, which are the amount of the ask-side transaction minus those of bid-side, does not.