低碳试点政策对城市土地绿色利用的影响——基于双重差分模型的实证研究

研究目的：探究低碳试点政策对城市土地绿色利用的影响效应与内在机制，以期从环境政策的角度为城市土地绿色利用提供对策建议。研究方法：Super-SBM模型、双重差分模型。研究结果：低碳试点政策对试点城市的土地绿色利用效率具有显著的促进作用，在考虑地区与时间特征以及其他影响因素的情况下，该促进效应为1.16%。机制分析结果显示，首先，低碳试点政策的实施对于当地产业结构转型具有促进作用，并表现为第一、第三产业比重的上升和第二产业比重的下降；其次，低碳城市建设所引致的城市创新能力的增强，通过低碳技术研发与应用，对土地绿色利用效率具有提升效应。研究结论：应通过持续推进低碳试点政策改革、结合本地产业特征引导产业转型、鼓励技术引进与创新等措施促进我国城市土地资源的绿色高效利用。     

数字普惠金融与小微企业出口:雪中送炭还是锦上添花

本文将数字普惠金融与小微企业出口相结合,为深入探讨数字金融的普惠意义提供了新视角。我们基于数字普惠金融指数和中国小微企业调查数据,构建一个广义双重差分回归模型进行经验分析,经过一系列内生性处理后,回归结果稳健地显示数字普惠金融发展可显著促进小微企业出口。机制分析结果表明,数字普惠金融会促进生产率更低的企业出口,并改善小微企业的营运资本使用效率。此外,数字普惠金融覆盖广度比使用深度和数字化程度对小微企业出口的影响更大。高资金负担、弱政企关系以及西部地区的小微企业受益更大,这是雪中送炭的表现;而在金融软环境更好的地区小微企业受益更多,则是锦上添花的表现。     

Smartphone-based agricultural extension services and farm incomes: Evidence from Zhejiang Province in China

Smartphone use in rural China has grown rapidly, leading to the fast development of smartphone-based agricultural extension services. However, there is limited research on the income effects of smartphone-based agricultural extension services in rural areas. In this study, we analyze the causal effects of smartphone-based agricultural extension services (“Zhe'yang'shi” WeChat application as an example) on farm incomes in Zhejiang, China, using a staggered difference-in-differences method with panel data from 400 crop farmers. Our results show that adopting smartphone-based agricultural extension services increases farm income from soil testing formula fertilizer fields by 15.39% and total farm income by 16.31%.     

数字经济,营商环境与企业家精神--基于“智慧城市”的准自然实验

文章以2010-2019年中国285个地级市为样本,借助智慧城市设立的“准自然实验”,分析数字经济对企业家精神的影响。首先对中国城市营商环境进行评价,并结合面板门槛回归、中介效应模型等方法,检验了数字经济对企业家精神成长的影响效应及理论机制。结果表明,通过直接和间接两种路径,数字经济显著地提升了城市企业家精神,营商环境对企业家精神的影响呈边际递增效应。异质性分析发现,相较于南方城市,数字经济对北方城市企业家精神的正向影响更为明显;相较于直辖市和副省级城市,数字经济对外围城市企业家精神的促进效果更为明显。     

农地流转与化肥减量——来自农地流转政策的准自然实验

目的 推动化肥减量是实现农业可持续发展、绿色发展的必然要求，而农地流转的发展为推动化肥减量提供了新的思路。方法 文章基于2005—2020年中国省级面板数据，运用连续型DID模型、中介模型等考察农地流转政策对化肥减量作用、作用机制以及异质性作用。结果 （1）基准模型估计结果表明，农地流转政策对化肥减量具有显著的促进作用，即农地流转能够促进化肥减量。（2）作用机制分析表明，农地流转政策可以通过调整种植结构和扩大经营规模的渠道对化肥减量起促进作用。（3）异质性分析表明，在自然地理区位维度，农地流转政策对东部和西部地区带来的化肥减量作用更为明显；在粮食生产功能区维度，农地流转政策对非粮食主产区带来的化肥减量作用更为明显；在化肥用量分布维度，对于化肥用量位于0.9分位点的省份，农地流转政策实施带来的化肥减量作用相对较弱。结论 应继续有序推进农地流转，提高农地流转比例；应遏制农地流转“非粮化”，促进农业适度规模经营；应结合各区域经济社会发展，因地制宜的探索农地流转模式。     

“四大”分所落户能否缓解区域企业融资约束？——基于多时点双重差分模型的实证检验

融资约束是掣肘企业发展的关键因素之一，知名事务所分所落户能否缓解企业融资约束仍有待探索。基于2007—2021年沪深A股上市公司的面板数据，将“四大”分所落户视作准自然实验，构建多时点双重差分模型，探究其对企业融资约束的影响及内在机理。结果表明，“四大”分所落户显著缓解了当地企业融资约束程度。机制检验及进一步研究发现，“四大”分所落户通过改善当地营商环境和提升企业透明度两个渠道来缓解企业融资约束，且缓解效果因企业性质和内外部治理水平不同而存在差异。研究结论为深入推进会计师事务所做强做优、做专做精提供参考，同时也对破解企业融资困境，促进资本市场资源配置和区域高质量发展具有一定启示意义。     

The Spillover Effects of Environmental Regulations: A Perspective of Chinese Unregulated Firms' Tax Burden

Previous studies focus on the direct impacts of environmental regulations while paying less attention to spillover effects. Taking the Eleventh Five-year Plan in China as a quasi-natural experiment, our results show that environmental regulations significantly increase the tax burden of unregulated firms. Environmental regulations generate spillover effects on firms that should not be subjected to regulatory policies. Further channel analysis shows that the fiscal pressure of local governments caused by environmental regulations is a major channel for the increase in the tax burden of unregulated firms. Finally, according to the heterogeneity results, the spillover effects are more pronounced in small firms, non-state-owned enterprises, and provinces with stricter enforcement. Our findings emphasize the additional costs of environmental policies, and the government should consider these costs when formulating policies.     

“保险+期货”模式与农户增收——基于全国124个县的多期双重差分估计

目的 “保险+期货”作为我国金融支农的重要创新，对农户实现增收起着关键作用。在农产品价格风险成为农户主要风险的背景下，分析“保险+期货”对农户增收的影响路径和效果具有重要的理论和现实意义。方法 文章基于准自然实验的思路，将“保险+期货”试点视作外部冲击，构建多期双重差分模型，采用2011—2020年中国124个县的面板数据，估计“保险+期货”试点对农户增收的影响路径和效果。结果 （1）“保险+期货”试点对农户具有显著的增收效应，使农村居民人均可支配收入平均提高了2.75%。（2）“保险+期货”试点对农户的增收效应存在异质性，对贫困县农户更为明显。（3）“保险+期货”试点对农户的增收效应是逐年递增的，试点第5年增收效应达到上限。结论 建议稳步扩大“保险+期货”试点、优先在脱贫地区开展“保险+期货”试点，并且积极探索建立收入保险。     

高铁开通对产业结构的影响及机制研究——来自中国市辖区及县级市的经验证据

基于2006—2016年中国高速铁路开通数据,以高铁开通为准自然实验场景,采用多时点双重差分方法实证检验了高铁开通对城市产业结构合理化和高级化的影响.研究发现,高铁开通促进了市辖区的产业结构高级化,加剧了产业结构不合理,推动了县级市的第二产业比重向第三产业转移,并且这种影响并非从建设期开始;通过进一步研究,本文发现开通高铁的市辖区通过减少规模以上工业企业个数引致产业结构高级化,市辖区位于城市集群中增强了高铁开通对产业结构不合理的影响效果,而县级市位于城市集群中则推动了开通高铁的城市产业结构高级化.     

The effects of an environmental accountability system on local environmental governance and firms’ emissions

The Chinese central government introduced the environmental accountability system (EAS) policy in 2006 to encourage local governments to execute environmental policies appropriately. However, the effects of this EAS policy have not been investigated at the firm level. In this study, we first measured the environmental governance intensity of local governments by calculating the environment word portion (EWP) of the annual governments’ work reports and found that local governments increased their efforts after the EAS policy implementation. We then constructed a continuous difference-in-difference (DID) strategy to estimate the effect of the EAS on firms’ emission and found that firms significantly reduced their sulphur dioxide (SO₂) emission under the regulation intensity of local governments after the EAS policy. The reductions are mainly because of the private, non-export, labour- and capital-intensive firms. The EAS policy may encourage firms to reduce coal usage, design more products, decrease capacity investment and even withdraw from the market, thus reducing pollutant emission. Finally, we tested firms’ response in various polluting sectors and found that the EAS policy may cause local governments to fail in distinguishing low pollution sectors from high pollution sectors.