中国金融垄断的一个例证--实际利差扩大化

随着股份制商业银行的壮大和中小金融机构的兴起以及外资银行的进入，我国国有商业银行一统天下的局面有了很大改观，但是国有商业银行的垄断地位却没有发生根本性改变。国有商业银行依然凭借其垄断地位，直接或间接地获取垄断利润。本从国有商业银行存贷款利差分析入手，阐述了实际利差扩大化的产生机理，指出国有商业银行垄断地位是实际利差扩大化的制度基础，从而表明实际利差扩大化正是我国金融垄断的一个有力证据。     

我国的M1/M2(1978-2002):长期趋势、水平与周期波动

本对我国1978—2002年的M1／M2的长期趋势、水平和周期波动进行了研究，结果表明1978—1995年，中国的M1／M2呈急剧下降的态势，但是从1996至今则基本保持平稳。另外从国别比较来看，我国属于M1／M2比较高的国家(地区)之一，这表明我国的居民和企业由于支付制度、取款成本、规避税收等原因比美、日等国家的经济主体对M1的需求高很多。除开长期走势之外，中国的M1／M2还伴随着经济活动呈周期性的波动，实证分析结果表明1996年前的经济增长率是M1／M2周期波动的Granger原因，但1996年以后则必须由名义利率、通货膨胀率和股票市场交易量的变动才能说明M1／M2的波动。     

Earnings management and initial public offerings: Evidence from the Netherlands

This paper presents one of the first studies of earnings management by initial public offering (IPO) firms in a European country. Using a sample of 64 Dutch IPOs, we investigate the pattern of discretionary current accruals (DCA) over time. We find that managers manage their company's earnings in the first year as a public company but not in the years before the IPO. We also examine the impact of earnings management on the long-run stock price performance of IPOs. We find a negative relation between the size of the DCA in the first year as a public company and long-run stock price performance over the next 3 years. A number of additional tests support these findings.     

The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility

Stock prices reflect the value of anticipated future profits of companies. Since business cycle conditions impact the future profitability of firms, expectations about the business cycle will affect the current value of firms. This paper uses daily and monthly data from July 1986 to December 2000 to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of US technology stock price conditional volatility. Technology share prices are measured using the Pacific Stock Exchange Technology 100 Index. One of the novel features of this paper is to incorporate a link between technology stock price movements and oil price movements. The empirical results indicate that the conditional volatilities of oil prices, the term premium, and the consumer price index each have a significant impact on the conditional volatility of technology stock prices. Conditional volatilities calculated using daily stock return data display more persistence than conditional volatilities calculated using monthly data. These results further our understanding of the interaction between oil prices and technology share prices and should be of use to investors, hedgers, managers, and policymakers.     

Knowledge transfer costs and dependence as determinants of financial reporting

Abstract This paper examines the circumstances in which financial reporting exists. Jensen and Meckling (1995 ) observe that where there are high knowledge transfer costs, then decentralisation is necessary; and that where decentralisation occurs there is a control problem, which can be addressed by providing a control system. I predict that where there are high knowledge transfer costs there will be a control system; if the control system uses financial reports, these will occur for activities with high knowledge transfer costs. The ability to decentralise is reduced where dependence makes it potentially costly to allow a subordinate to make decisions about the activity. The paper predicts that high dependence will be negatively associated with the existence of financial reports. The results confirm the predictions that financial reports are positively associated with knowledge transfer costs and negatively associated with dependence.     

汇率制度、资本流动与金融危机:理论和实证分析——东亚金融危机视角

20世纪90年代,几乎所有发生金融危机的国家当时都实行固定或钉住汇率制度。东亚金融危机爆发前,东亚各经济体大多实行钉住美元的相对固定汇率制,大量国际资本流入,本币严重高估,经常项目巨额逆差,宏观经济严重失衡。在汇率贬值的预期下,国际投机资本对东亚经济体货币发动攻击,大量资本流出,受攻击的经济体外汇储备耗尽,最终导致实际钉住美元的固定汇率制崩溃,金融危机爆发,蔓延成危及东亚乃至世界的金融危机。东亚金融危机的事实表明,金融危机、资本流动和汇率制度之间存在着密切关系。     

县乡财政:困境与出路

近年来,我国的财政收入以年均20%的速度增长。但在财政收入总量增长的同时,基层财力不足问题严重。主要表现为县乡财政困难和庞大的债务问题。据不完全统计,目前我国县乡政府的债务总规模在4000亿元到1万亿元之间。县乡财政困难不仅严重影响基层经济的发展和公共物品的提供,同时也制约了我国社会整体发展水平的提高,更不利于全面建设小康社会。解决县乡财政困难问题已刻不容缓。本文在考察了县乡财政困难具体情况的基础上,从我国现行财税体制、经济和社会因素等方面进行了多角度的原因分析,力图为县乡财政解困提出一些切实可行的政策建议。     

不同融资制度下的金融中介发展

在任何一种经济中都需要建立一种金融机构与证券市场能够共同发挥作用的、完善的金融体系。但是,考虑到各种经济制度建立基础和发展历史与传统上的差异,以及金融体系与企业部门之间的关系不同,各国金融体系的架构并不需要保持完全的一致。本文从不同融资制度中金融中介的作用,探讨经济中金融中介的发展。     

政府主导还是市场主导--我国转轨金融运行机制的评价研究

转轨过程中,我国金融运行机制是采取政府主导还是市场主导模式是经济学界争论的焦点,文章应用ARCH类模型对我国金融运行机制进行实证研究,结果表明我国金融运行机制与西方市场经济国家存在显著区别。在我国转轨的特定阶段,金融系统无法依靠自身的力量达到稳定状态,只有靠外部力量的非市场干预才能实现金融系统的平稳运行。目前在金融系统自身不具备自我稳定的功能条件下,政府的外部干预是金融系统平稳运行的前提,否则会导致金融系统陷入剧烈的波动之中。     

中国农村金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响--基于1978-2004年数据的检验

大多数研究表明,改革开放以来,中国整体金融发展显著扩大了城乡收入差距,同时,它们从城乡金融发展不平衡角度进行了理论阐释。本文则从农村自身经济发展层面出发运用1978-2004年的相关数据分析了农村金融发展与城乡收入差距之间的关系,结果显示:农村金融发展扩大了城乡收入差距,究其原因主要是农村资金的不断外流和非正规金融的不规范发展,加剧了城乡收入差距的扩大。现实的出路是遏制农村资金外流,提供更多的农村正规金融资源;规范非正规金融发展,防范农村金融风险。