小额信贷扶贫与财务可持续性:作用机制与协调发展研究

扶贫与财务可持续发展是小额信贷公司应该同时兼顾的两个重要问题,本文从静态和动态角度分析小额信贷公司扶贫和财务可持续发展的作用机制,研究发现在短期内小额信贷对盈利的追求会损害扶贫功能的发挥,但从长期、动态的角度看,扶贫与财务可持续发展是可以协调的,提出了我国小额信贷扶贫与财务可持续性协调发展的具体对策。     

突破“柠檬市场”探索危机形势下二手车行业的发展出路

经济学家称二手车交易市场是一个"柠檬市场",由于信息的极度不对称,买卖双方博弈将导致二手车的品质将会越来越差、流通速度会越来越慢,蕴含了自我破坏、自我毁灭机制。2008年爆发的金融危机对高速增长的二手车行业产生巨大影响,"柠檬市场"特性凸显,对并不成熟和完善的二手车行业来说如何度过这个阶段非常关键。通过对日本、台湾二手车行业发展历程及成功模式进行分析,对比我国二手车行业现状,基于金融危机形势下特定的消费环境,以及"柠檬市场"特性根源,从现实条件出发,通过改善法律环境、加强从业人员的专业管理以及经营者审慎报价来提高在售二手车的品质保障,解决消费者"不信任"的核心问题,通过改变经营思路、大力推进拍卖业的发展、开拓CtoC、BtoB商务平台等手段加快二手车流通速度,将是非常有效的途径。     

金融危机对我国FDI流入的影响——基于信用资产负债表效应角度的一个思考

本文从资产负债表效应的角度,综合金融部门的资产负债结构、非金融部门的资产负债结构和利率信息不对称的互动关系等三个方面分析了金融危机影响我国FDI流入的传导机制,在此基础上,提出了改善银行和FDI流入持续增长行业资产负债结构等建议。     

金融发展对中国经济增长的实证分析

本文通过对股票市场、银行储蓄、外商直接投资建立线性模型以分析这三者对中国经济发展的影响,根据OLS回归分析得出外商直接投资、银行储蓄、股票市场对中国经济都存在着明显的相关性,但其作用依次减弱,最后给出了相应的对策。     

现行国际货币体系改革探析

由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机极大地暴露了现行国际货币体系的弊端,表明了现行国际货币体系与经济发展的不适应性。本文对现行国际货币体系的缺陷进行了分析,并提出了对现行国际货币体系改革的思路和对策:建立统一超主权国际储备货币、改革国际汇率制度、改革IMF的职能和作用。     

地方国有企业的投融资期限错配:成因与治理

地方国有企业是中国经济发展的中坚力量,在供给侧结构性改革中应发挥带头作用,成为改革的主力军和先行者。目前地方国有企业存在的突出困境是债务水平过高,且面临较为严重的投融资期限错配问题。本文以2005—2013年中国工业企业数据库(CIED)中规模以上的非上市国有企业为样本,构建"投资-负债"模型分析短期债务变化量和长期投资额之间的动态关系,从预算软约束和金融市场结构两个维度剖析造成国有企业投融资期限错配的内在机理。研究发现:(1)我国央企和地方国企的投资更依赖新增债务而非留存收益,预算软约束问题严重;(2)金融市场提供长期资金的能力不足,国有企业进行长期债务融资的渠道受限;(3)国有企业的投资活动更依赖新增短期债务,存在投融资期限错配问题,且地方国有企业的投融资期限错配问题更加严重。本文的研究结果表明,为了实现地方国有企业去杠杆并优化债务结构,应从国企本身、银行信贷、政府行为和资本市场等方面进行综合治理,以提升地方国有企业的内源融资能力,并完善金融市场结构。     

Real income convergence and the patterns of financial integration in the EU

We analyse real income convergence among the EU28 countries throughout 1995–2017 and the relationship with the convergence patterns of financial systems. We apply the nonlinear latent factor model of Phillips and Sul (2007, 2009) to real incomes and the IMF financial development indices for financial markets and financial institutions (Svirydzenka, 2016), and identify convergence clubs endogenously. We have several results. First, income disparities narrowed significantly over the last twenty years; yet, the growth convergence process lost momentum triggered by the global financial crisis and countries legacies shaped up asymmetries that have crystallised. Second, countries' financial systems exhibit high fragmentation, especially for financial markets, with the new EU member states at a lower financial development, confirming the existence of a two-tier Europe. Overall, the convergence patterns for real incomes and financial development are strongly correlated. Finally, the financial structure matters and market-oriented economies feature higher long-run growth, indicating the need to implement pan-European policy actions that increase the opportunities of risk diversification, enhance capital raising and channel large-scale financing to firms.     

Who benefits in a crisis? Evidence from hedge fund stock and option holdings

We use a unique data set of hedge fund long equity and equity option positions to investigate a significant lockup-related premium earned during the tech bubble (1999–2001) and financial crisis (2007–2009). Net fund flows are significantly greater among lockup funds during crisis and noncrisis periods. Managers of hedge funds with locked-up capital trade opportunistically against flow-motivated trades of non-lockup managers, consistent with a hypothesis of rent extraction in providing crisis era liquidity. The success of this opportunistic trading is concentrated during periods of high borrowing costs, in less liquid stock markets, and is enhanced by hedging in the equity option market.     

违约与杠杆周期——一个带有救助的金融加速器模型

我国为应对2008年国际金融危机的冲击采取了一系列经济刺激政策,在发挥“稳增长”作用的同时,也在一定程度上导致我国企业部门杠杆水平快速上升,但与此同时,不良贷款率并没有随企业部门杠杆的上升而显著增加。为了解释企业部门违约与杠杆的周期特征,本文在金融加速器模型(Bernanke et al.,1999)基础上,引入政府对企业部门的违约救助机制,建立DSGE模型进行讨论。进一步地,本文还通过一个不合意的去杠杆政策试验表明,忽略资产价格稳定(或者说金融稳定)前提下的去杠杆政策,反而会使企业部门的杠杆和违约率同时上升到一个较高水平。最后,引入一个盯住预期资产价格的动态救助规则能够发挥稳定经济的作用,并提高社会福利水平。     

Depletion of psychological,financial, and social resources in the hospitality sector during the pandemic

This study details how psychological, financial, and social factors shape employee deviant interpersonal behaviors during a pandemic. Data were collected with a survey of 372 front-line employees of hotels and analyzed with PLS-SEM. The findings showed social disconnectedness and perceived risk of unemployment leads to perceived isolation, which further creates depression in employees. The findings also showed that depression is positively related to employee deviance. Financial strain is a major cause of perceived isolation, depression, and deviant behaviors among front-line employees. Results also proved that social support reduces fear of isolation, depression, and employee deviance. This study provides guidelines that hotels need to understand the psychological stance of employees and design policies to overcome employee perceived fears and psychological disorders.