试析历史地理环境中福建海商的兴衰

在特殊的历史地理环境中，植根于中国传统农业社会的福建商业经济一直不断加强着与海内外的联系。宋元以后随着人口和经济的繁荣，福建的对外贸易更是发展迅猛，随之出现了大量的海商乃至海商集团，成为海洋商业文化发展的重要标志。近代以后，由于国内外政治经济条件的变化，福建海商逐渐步入衰弱，但其海洋人文影响却至今犹存。     

Linear learning in changing environments

The decision maker receives signals imperfectly correlated with an unobservable state variable and must take actions whose payoffs depend on the state. The state randomly changes over time. In this environment, we examine the performance of simple linear updating rules relative to Bayesian learning. We show that a range of parameters exists for which linear learning results in exactly the same decisions as Bayesian learning, although not in the same beliefs. Outside this parameter range, we use simulations to demonstrate that the consumption level attainable under the optimal linear rule is virtually indistinguishable from the one attainable under Bayes’ rule, although the respective decisions will not always be identical. These results suggest that simple rules of thumb can have an advantage over Bayesian updating when more complex calculations are more costly to perform than less complex ones. We demonstrate the implications of such an advantage in an evolutionary model where agents “learn to learn.”     

Transition economies and trust building: a network perspective on EU enlargement

Many transition economies are characterised by a relativelyrudimentary institutional framework. Weak legislative structuresand the absence of effective market regulation and propertyright enforcement rules diminish the chance of mutually profitablebusiness transactions and—more generally—restrictthe chances for innovation and sustainable growth. Against thisbackground, we analyse the extent to which more efficient governancemechanisms can contribute to a more favourable business environment.In doing so, we adopt a network perspective. We argue that bothin developed market economies as well as in centrally plannedeconomies much of economic exchange takes place in networks.However, the characteristics of these networks, in particularthe concept of trust, can differ significantly. This leads usto conclude that the real challenge of the process of economictransition is connected to building new economic exchange networks.In this paper, we discuss this argument and analyse how thecurrent enlargement of the EU into Eastern Europe may favourablyaffect this process of institutional change in the accessioncountries.     

农户小额信贷信用风险控制研究——基于新疆玛纳斯县、吐鲁番市、托克逊县的农户调查

本文基于对新疆玛纳斯县、吐鲁番市、托克逊县农村农户的实地调查,从社会学制度变迁角度,运用博弈分析的方法,研究了农户小额信贷信用风险控制问题。指出影响农户小额信贷信用风险的三个关键因素:1.在农村初步构建起制度信任安排约束的信用工程。2.农村信用社对信贷员激励相容的内控机制设计。3.小额信贷额度控制和联保贷款风险控制技术。     

股票流动性与企业创新：促进还是抑制——企业异质性视角

基于2010—2017年我国沪深A股1281家上市公司数据，从企业异质性视角分析股票流动性对企业创新的影响。结果发现：总体来看，股票流动性会抑制企业创新，而且对后期抑制作用更大；企业规模和行业特征是影响“股票流动性-企业创新”关系的重要因素，即股票流动性对大型企业和传统行业企业创新具有促进作用，而对中小型企业和高科技行业企业具有抑制作用。进一步机制研究显示，稳定型机构投资者和交易型机构投资者在股票流动性与企业创新间起双中介作用，虽然股票流动性对二者的作用方向相反，但最终都会导致企业创新水平下降。     

异质机构、企业性质与自主创新

本文通过放松经理人市场的完全竞争性假定,拓展了经典职业生涯模型,藉此研究了中国制度背景下的机构持股、企业性质与企业创新的关系,并基于2004—2009年923家上市公司的数据,从R&D投入和专利申请两个维度对本文拓展模型的命题进行了实证检验。结果表明:(1)异质机构对企业创新有不同的影响,证券投资基金对企业创新有显著的负效应,这种负效应在国有企业中表现得更为明显;(2)民营企业中机构投资者持股促进了企业的创新活动,国有企业中机构投资者持股与企业创新呈显著的负相关关系;(3)机构投资者整体持股对全样本企业的专利申请有不显著的正效应,而对R&D投入则有显著的负效应。     

Empirical evidence on the impact of external monitoring on book–tax differences

This study investigates whether institutional ownership levels are associated with levels of and time-series variability in book–tax differences (BTDs). Firm and year fixed-effects regression results suggest that institutional ownership is negatively associated with total, permanent, and temporary BTDs. This effect is driven primarily by permanent BTDs in the pre-SOX era but is consistently present for both permanent and temporary BTDs post-SOX. Further, this negative association is present regardless of firms' classification as “tax planners” and/or “earnings managers.” Finally, the results provide some evidence that stronger monitoring by the board and audit committee (i.e., a smaller and more independent board and a larger audit committee) is associated with lower permanent BTDs but is not consistently related with total or temporary BTDs. Overall, these findings are consistent with higher levels of institutional ownership equating to more effective monitoring of management, resulting in lower BTDs (in terms of both levels and time-series variability).     

透明度变化对股票市场投资者委托单提交行为和交易成本影响研究

基于2003年12月8日沪深交易所交易前市场透明度改革背景,本文利用一家营业部的投资者报价和交易数据,研究同一个机构投资者和散户投资者在透明度改革前后委托单提交激进程度的变化,以及这种变化对其完成交易的成本的影响。我们发现,透明度改革前后,机构投资者的委托单提交激进程度都显著大于散户投资者的委托单提交激进程度。透明度增加以后,机构投资者的委托单激进程度显著减少,而散户投资者的委托单提交激进程度增加。同时发现,透明度增加以后,机构投资者通过分拆委托单,增加交易次数,导致完成交易的时间增加,但价格影响力基本没有变化,散户投资者的成交时间和价格影响力有显著改善。     

农村信贷配给实证分析

信贷配给是制约我国农村信贷市场建设的重要因素,也阻碍了农村金融环境优化、影响了农村经济的良性发展。通过引入制度因子,量化信贷配给,构建了信贷配给宏观计量模型,对我国农村信贷配给状况进行实证检验,结果证明,利率和制度因子是造成我国农村信贷配给的两大因子。应合理调控利率、推进深化改革、加大三农扶持力度,实现农村经济社会的和谐发展。     

经济全球化与中国工业结构变化

理论分析显示经济全球化能通过固定资产投资、制度变迁和劳动力等因素引发中国工业结构变化。运用协整分析和ECM等方法实证检验显示长期内经济全球化增长1%将促使我国工业结构变化0.27%,固定资产投资、制度变迁和劳动力均能促进我国工业结构变化,而短期内经济全球化和劳动力可能制约工业结构变化。