A general equilibrium analysis of strategic arbitrage

We analyze a general equilibrium framework with Cournot arbitrageurs and with price-taking investors who are subjected to restricted participation constraints. Restricted participation may leave some arbitrage opportunities unexploited by investors.We show existence of Cournot–Walras equilibria with an endogenous number of arbitrageurs. The number of arbitrageurs is endogenous since they have to sink entry costs in order to arbitrage across the relevant markets. We characterize equilibria and analyze the effects on equilibrium prices and quantities of increased competition among arbitrageurs due to lower entry costs.     

Forecasting with vector autoregressive (VAR) models subject to business cycle restrictions

In the last decade VAR models have become a widely-used tool for forecasting macroeconomic time series. To improve the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of these models, Bayesian random-walk prior restrictions are often imposed on VAR model parameters. This paper focuses on whether placing an alternative type of restriction on the parameters of unrestricted VAR models improves the out-of-sample forecasting performance of these models. The type of restriction analyzed here is based on the business cycle characteristics of U.S. macroeconomic data, and in particular, requires that the dynamic behavior of the restricted VAR model mimic the business cycle characteristics of historical data. The question posed in this paper is: would a VAR model, estimated subject to the restriction that the cyclical characteristics of simulated data from the model “match up” with the business cycle characteristics of U.S. data, generate more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than unrestricted or Bayesian VAR models?     

Modelling care

Kalecki's 1943 essay Political Aspects of Full Employment (PAFE) is widely recognised as a seminal essay in the theory of the political business cycle. The paper argues that PAFE may also be interpreted as an early recognition by Kalecki of the phenomenon of rent seeking. Kalecki's discussion of the rent-seeking behavior of businessmen is shown to have anticipated Olson's subsequent theory of distributional coalitions. A Kalecki-Olson analysis provides an explanation for the movement in income shares in the UK since 1975.     

An investigation of the short-term performance of the Canadian IPO market.

This article explores the short-term return performance of the Canadian initial public offering (IPO) market. Historically, the Canadian IPO market has shown to be one of the least underpriced markets in the world. This paper uses recent IPOs from 2010 to 2017, and the results confirm that the Canadian IPO market remains one of the least underpriced IPO markets in the world. The mean (median) first-day returns show that Canadian IPOs are marginally underpricing at only 1.45% (0.24%) during the sample period. Additional short-run return measures indicate that Canadian IPOs underperform the market in their 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month holding periods. This research also contributes to the existing IPO literature by showing that restricted voting share offerings tend to be more underpriced and perform poorly over the short-term.     

大小非解禁的市场反应

本文利用事件研究方法,研究截止2010年3月31日解禁的大小非样本对二级市场股票价格的影响。结果表明,大小非解禁对市场产生了显著负面影响。在此基础上,对大小非样本进行了分类研究,发现大小非解禁后真正对二级市场产生的实质性冲击主要集中在高估值、非控股股东和自由减持三类样本,而在解禁前中低估值、控股股东和大宗交易减持三类大小非样本对二级市场存在一定的心理冲击,但幅度有限,且在解禁后市场对解禁前的心理冲击有一定的矫正。另外,值得注意的是,高估值和非控股股东两类大小非样本在解禁前存在明显人为拉高股价的操纵迹象。     

创业投资优先股研究

优先股是创业投资控制风险的有效手段,是创业投资的最佳投资工具。境外的法律制度允许创业投资大量使用优先股条款以保证自身利益。我国现行法律体系下,创业投资仅能通过条款设计实现优先股的部分权益。我国法律应该彻底贯彻意思自治的立法理念并修改具体规则以满足创业投资的需求。     

Capital account openness and the labour share of income

This paper investigates the relationship between capital accountopenness and the share of labour in national income. Employinga new index of financial openness and a cross-country panelof labour shares available from the United Nations System ofNational Accounts, the author shows a robust negative correlationbetween the degree of openness and the labour share. Althoughthis effect is not present for low income countries, the directnegative relationship holds for all other subsamples and inthe presence of a variety of controls. A plausible explanationis that openness alters the conditions of bargaining betweenlabour and capital. By increasing the bargaining strength ofcapital vis-a-vis labour, increased capital mobility raisesrents accruing to capital. Thus, capital account openness mayreduce labour's share of income in the firm, and thereby, atan economy-wide level, its share of national output.     

国有股减持的障碍分析

国有股减持工作中存在观念、体制、价格、金融环境及减持资金的投向与使用方面的障碍     

上市公司中小投资者权益保护制度绩效的实证检验

我国上市公司终极控股股东利用对上市公司的控制权,普遍通过非公平关联交易、违规信息披露、市场操纵等方式获取控制权私人收益,非法侵害中小投资者的合法权益。从上市公司股权结构等角度,通过逻辑回归分析,分别对股权分置改革时期、后股权分置时期中国上市公司中小投资者权益保护制度的绩效进行实证检验,这为制定保护中小投资者权益的政策提供了实证依据。     

股改股票的短期投资收益实证分析与预测

股权分置是中国证券市场的一大症结。股权分置是指上市公司的一部分股份上市流通,一部分股份暂不上市流通。2005年4月29日,中国证券市场正式进行股权分置改革。那么在“切实保护投资者特别是公众投资者的合法权益”的指导意见下,股改是否真的给投资者带来短期的收益呢?研究结果表明短期投资收益与对价方案存在着线性相关关系。投资者会问:什么样的公司具有高的对价支付可能呢?就此问题也做了实证分析。