Sovereign collateral as a Trojan Horse: Why do we need an LCR+

Sovereign bonds are widely used as collateral in banks’ funding and trading operations. If a sovereign becomes distressed, the collateral mechanism impairs and banks are suddenly facing significant liquidity calls. Basel III's Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) protects banks against unexpected liquidity calls, but currently excludes sovereign distress. Thus, all banks fulfilling the LCR are still exposed to a liquidity risk stemming from distressed sovereign debt and materializing through the collateral channel. Our paper shows that this unaddressed risk can translate into a system-wide liquidity shock. To gauge the potential damage caused by such a shock, we develop a model based on banks’ home sovereign exposures and a bundle of simplifying assumptions in which sovereign distress triggers bank distress. Our model describes how deteriorating sovereign collateral can lead to an overall liquidity squeeze and non-compliance with Basel III liquidity standards. As this risk is too material to be neglected, we propose an alternative version of the LCR, LCR+, which includes the liquidity impact of sovereign distress.     

Understanding the U.S.-China Trade War

ABSTRACT

Three major concerns drove the U.S. into initiating the trade war, and they are (a) the concern that China’s chronically large trade surplus was depressing job creation in the U.S. (b) the concern that China was using illegal and unfair methods to acquire U.S. technology at an effectively discounted price; and (c) the concern that China seeks to weaken U.S. national security and its international standing. On the dispute over China’s exchange rate and trade imbalance, the first conclusion is that it was marked by analytical confusion over the meaning of the term ‘equilibrium exchange rate’. The second conclusion is that China’s trade imbalance reflects the economic conditions in both China and U.S., and that the efficient and fair solution of the problem requires policy changes in both countries. On the industrial policy dispute, the first conclusion is that the issue of forced technology transfer is largely a dispute about China using its market power to benefit itself at the expense of its trade partners. The second conclusion is that China’s use of market power can last only until the other large countries could unite and retaliate as a group. The inevitability of retaliation means that China should replace the joint-venture (JV) mechanism for technological diffusion with other ways to strengthen its technological capability. On the U.S. concern about whether China trade weakens its national security, the first conclusion is that the notion of national security that is commonly adopted in the U.S. trade policy debate is ignorant about the primary determinants of U.S. capability in innovation. By focusing instead mainly on how to hold down China technologically, the long-run outcome will be a technologically weaker U.S. and hence, a more vulnerable U.S. The second conclusion is that the U.S. must identify a clear, short list of critical technologies and critical infrastructure for the recently reformed Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to cover, and update this list constantly. Otherwise, the broad and changing nature of notions about national security would allow the bureaucratically driven phenomenon of mission-creep to steadily expand the coverage of the CFIUS process, thereby steadily rendering CFIUS to be operationally capricious. Our principal policy suggestion to China is that, because China’s economy in 2018 is very different from that in 1978 (e.g. many parts of China now look like Singapore and China is Africa’s biggest donor), there should be more reciprocity in China’s trade and investment relations with the advanced economies despite China’s status as a developing economy under WTO rules. Our principal policy suggestion to President Trump is to stop equating strategic competition with economic competition. Strategic competition is normally a zero-sum game. While fair economic competition is usually a zero-sum game in the short run, it generally creates a win-win outcome in the long run.     

高校课堂教学中知识转移影响因素及过程分析

知识转移是近年来企业创新研究的方向之一,课堂教学也是一种知识转移的过程,运用知识转移相关理论对高校课堂教学提高教学效果具有参考意义,教师、学生、转移的知识、教师与学生的距离对提高知识转移的效果、促进教学相长具有重要影响。     

缅甸瑞丽江一级水电站至达贡山镍矿输电线路材料补件

缅甸恶劣的自然条件、落后的基础设施及对物资入境的审批时间过长等因素,给我国企业在缅甸进行的施工项目中的材料补件工作带来一定困难。预估补件量,提前申报,从而尽早获取批文是赢得材料补件时间的前提,倒运、转运是克服运输条件困难的有效措施,塔材补件是输电线路施工项目补件工作的关键所在。相关人员要熟悉材料补件工作的步骤,要对每一个步骤所要花费的时间和总周期有一个总体把握,使材料补件工作与工程总工期计划相衔接。     

The Trade Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Nonfinancial Manufacturing Firms in Turkey

This study investigates the trade credit channel of monetary policy transmission in Turkey by using a large panel of corporate firms and includes detailed information on balance sheets and income statements of firms that regularly reported to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey during the period 1996-2008. The study suggests that the composition of external finance differs considerably across firm types based on size and export performance under tight and loose financial conditions. Small and medium-size manufacturing firms and firms with a low export share are less likely to have access to bank finance, especially in tight periods. In addition, financially constrained firms with limited access to bank finance (small, low-export-share firms) tend to substitute trade credits for bank loans more aggressively in tight periods as monetary policy tightens. The large volume of trade credit on firms' balance sheets and its positive response to contractionary monetary shocks imply that the trade credit channel might subdue the traditional credit channel of monetary transmission.     

社会替代性补偿与压力应对:旅游的中介效应验证

后现代意义上的旅游作为对工业文明副产品--工作程式化、生活单调化、环境劣质化、人际疏远化的"逃避",已经超越了对求新求异审美的需求而导向对人的社会化的思考.文章通过构建旅游与压力转移整合模型,对旅游是否包含压力转移功能进行了实证检验.研究结果表明,旅游在压力感知与压力转移之间发挥中介效应,从而证明了旅游包含有社会补偿与整合功能,能够帮助个体在他领域寻求一种替代性办法来重新塑造自我,恢复人格尊严.我们应走出囿于旅游经济属性的窠臼,在构建和谐社会的时代主题下,充分挖掘旅游的社会功能,落实带薪休假制度,改善公民工作生活质量,从而全面促进社会福利的帕累托改进.     

我国科技投入机制存在的问题与对策

科学技术是第一生产力，同时也是加强国际竞争力，提高综合国力，推动国民经济持续增长的根本动力。文章分析了我国科技投入机制存在的问题，就如何有效完善我国科技投入机制进行了深入探讨，具有一定的参考价值。     

预约定价与税收公平原则关系之探究

预约定价作为调整跨国公司转移定价的新制度体现了税收效率原则,但这一制度是否同样体现了税收公平原则值得认真研究。本文通过对预约定价与税收公平原则相互关系的剖析,重点考察了预约定价影响税收公平原则的若干因素,并结合我国预约定价的实践,得出了相应的结论。     

乡村振兴视角下乡村人才培育的思考

从乡村振兴的视角看,人才振兴将发挥重要的作用,农村劳动力转移与新型职业农民培训起到了稳定农民生活水平、支撑农业持续健康发展的重要贡献。在实践中,农村劳动力培育面临着以下困难:区域经济差异直接影响剩余劳动力转移成效,培训目标人群与参与人群存在着明显的差异,当地培训资源有限导致培训内容的针对性不足。为此提议:将农村劳动力培育作为一项长期任务开展规划设计,加大资源投入,促成培训内容的针对性和适用性,加大农村地区义务教育的投入,尽快缩短劳动力资源水平的城乡差异,为乡村振兴筑牢根基。     

财政调控与国民收入预期

经济运行的正则性规定了经济因子之间的传递性,而固定替代弹性可以进一步给出这种传递性的精确测度.作为宏观调控的重要手段之一,政府的财政干预可以直接地作用于国民收入,从而导致国民收入向着预定的目标前进.然而,在以往的经济学范式（简称F函数）里,因为难以预测和计算潜在的国民收入水平,致使关于这种调控的真实效果难以得到精确的表示,甚至难以取得令人满意的近似.如今,经济学的范式进展到了有约束的利润函数（简称G函数）,它可以很容易地接受有关财政政策与市场因子的初始陈述,从而容易实现有关数学模型的建立,进而,借助正则定律和固定替代弹性定律,可以容易地揭示出财政政策调控与国民收入预期之间的基本关系,并给出精确的测度.