基于BP神经网络的我国M2/GDP预测与对策

本文计算了1993年至2005年我国M2/GDP,发现该数据总体呈上升趋势,这一定程度上反映了我国体制上的深层次问题。另外,本文运用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络方法预测出我国2006年的M2/GDP是1.6386左右,并提出了一些相应的政策建议。     

我国的M1/M2(1978-2002):长期趋势、水平与周期波动

本对我国1978—2002年的M1／M2的长期趋势、水平和周期波动进行了研究，结果表明1978—1995年，中国的M1／M2呈急剧下降的态势，但是从1996至今则基本保持平稳。另外从国别比较来看，我国属于M1／M2比较高的国家(地区)之一，这表明我国的居民和企业由于支付制度、取款成本、规避税收等原因比美、日等国家的经济主体对M1的需求高很多。除开长期走势之外，中国的M1／M2还伴随着经济活动呈周期性的波动，实证分析结果表明1996年前的经济增长率是M1／M2周期波动的Granger原因，但1996年以后则必须由名义利率、通货膨胀率和股票市场交易量的变动才能说明M1／M2的波动。     

维生素C二步发酵中优良菌株201A的研究

在对维生素C生产菌选育过程中,发现一株葡萄糖酸杆菌正向突变株,分离纯化后,获得优良菌株201A,经摇瓶培养,做生长曲线测定,发现前期生长及产酸明显高于生产菌株201C,经流加发酵工艺培养,可缩短发酵周期8h,山梨糖生成2—酮基—L—古龙酸的摩尔转化率达80％。     

Industrial distributors: Can they survive in the new economy?

As e-commerce evolves and gains power in the business-to-business (B2B) marketplace, what lies ahead for the industrial distributor? The fundamental issue from the distributor's point of view is how to compete more effectively and profitably, given the changing business environment of the new economy. This paper reviews the literature on the distributor's role and relationships and introduces a conceptual model of distributor viability. The model identifies sources of value that distributors offer to manufacturers and customers, including customer relationship management (CRM), production and operations management (POM), and knowledge management (KM). The paper explores the managerial implications of distributor relationships and sources of value. This provides the foundation for better understanding of the viability of industrial distributors in the new economy.     

Back on the balance sheet: The tax effects of contingent claims in commercial banking

Contingent claims separate revenue and cost into two different time periods. Revenue comes in the initial origination process, while the cost comes upon completion of the contract in the event of default. With banks increasing contingent claims in recent years, a higher taxable income leads to a shift in a bank's balance sheet toward tax-free income and tax-shielding liabilities. This provides a valuable case-study of corporate finance theories of tax management. This paper builds a model to illustrate the income features of contingent claims. Call Reports from 1990-1996 are examined, and show significant evidence of increases in leverage associated with contingent claims.     

Estimating the Euler equation for output

New Keynesian macroeconomic models have generally emphasized that expectations of future output are a key factor in determining current output. The theoretical motivation for such forward-looking behavior relies on a straightforward generalization of the well-known Euler equation for consumption. In this paper, we use maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments (GMM) methods to explore the empirical importance of output expectations. We find little evidence that rational expectations of future output help determine current output, especially after taking into account the small-sample bias in GMM.     

Corruption, inequality, and fairness

Bigger governments raise the possibilities for corruption; more corruption may in turn raise the support for redistributive policies that intend to correct the inequality and injustice generated by corruption. We formalize these insights in a simple dynamic model. A positive feedback from past to current levels of taxation and corruption arises either when wealth originating in corruption and rent seeking is considered unfair, or when the ability to engage in corruption is unevenly distributed in the population. This feedback introduces persistence in the size of the government and the levels of corruption and inequality. Multiple steady states exist in some cases.     

Technology improves sales performance—doesn't it?: An introduction to the special issue on selling and sales technology

Firms around the globe are rushing to invest in sales force technology or sales force automation (SFA). SFA appears to mean different things to different people. For example, management and sales personnel view the need for, application of, and advantages of SFA quite distinctly. As a result of technology, this special issue examines many areas of sales force automation to provide both practicing managers and sales force academicians with a clearer perspective of new technology in the B2B marketplace. This article introduces the special issue topic, individual contributors, and acknowledges support proffered by myriad individuals.     

The consequences to analyst involvement in the IPO process: Evidence surrounding the JOBS Act

The JOBS Act allows certain analysts to be more involved in the IPO process, but does not relax restrictions on analyst compensation structure. We find that these analysts initiate coverage that is more optimistically biased, less accurate, and generates smaller stock market reactions. Investors purchasing shares following these initiations lose over 3% of their investment by the firm's subsequent earnings release. By contrast, issuers, analysts, and investment banks appear to benefit from this increased bias, as optimism is more positively associated with proxies for firm visibility and investment banking revenues when analysts are involved in the IPO process.     

Monetary Policy,Trend Inflation,and Unemployment Volatility

The literature has long agreed that the DMP model (after Diamond 1982, Mortensen 1982, Pissarides 1985) with search and matching frictions in the labor market can deliver large volatilities in labor market quantities, consistent with empirical data, only if there is at least some wage stickiness. I show, however, that the model can deliver nontrivial volatilities without wage stickiness, as long as it has price dispersion and nonzero long‐run inflation rates. I find that by keeping inflation at a positive rate, monetary policy may be accountable for the large standard deviations observed on labor market variables. In addition, the Shimer (2005) puzzle disappears under monetary policy shocks.