Accurate Short-Term Yield Curve Forecasting using Functional Gradient Descent

We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generatingreliable short-term historical yield curve scenarios and confidenceintervals. The approach is based on a Functional Gradient Descent(FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and covariancematrix of a multivariate interest rate series. It is computationallyfeasible in large dimensions and it can account for nonlinearitiesin the dependence of interest rates at all available maturities.Based on FGD we apply filtered historical simulation to computereliable out-of-sample yield curve scenarios and confidenceintervals. We back-test our methodology on daily USD bond datafor forecasting horizons from 1 to 10 days. Based on severalstatistical performance measures we find significant evidenceof a higher predictive power of our method when compared toscenarios generating techniques based on (i) factor analysis,(ii) a multivariate CCC-GARCH model, or (iii) an exponentialsmoothing covariances estimator as in the RiskMetrics^TM approach.     

Global Sourcing Decision‐Making Processes: Politics,Intuition, and Procedural Rationality

Global sourcing (GS) is a firmly established phenomenon in modern business practice that requires specific expertise from different organizational functions, such as purchasing, production, logistics, and research and development to analyze and select sourcing alternatives effectively. In this context, global sourcing decision‐making (GSDM) processes pose major challenges because two dimensions of functional politics, namely goal misalignment and power imbalance across functions, appear to influence procedural rationality in a manner not understood to date. Likewise, intuition also seems to play a role for the procedural rationality of GSDM processes. To elucidate the conditions under which procedural rationality is hampered or enhanced by politics and intuition, we studied five cross‐functional GSDM processes, in front of extant strategic decision‐making literature. We derive formal propositions on how functional politics and intuition influence the procedural rationality and present contingencies for the divergent role of intuition as well as functional politics in GDSM processes. Our research contributes to existing GS literature by providing a theoretical model of important microfoundations of how GSDM processes evolve. The findings also guide managers on how to structure GSDM processes such that GS projects can be conducted in a more rational fashion.     

节假日调整方案调查问卷的批评性语篇分析

从批评性语篇分析的视角出发，运用系统功能语言学及语用学的分析方法，对国家发改委在其官方网站上公布的节假日调整方案的调查问卷进行分析，发现调查问卷作为一种商用语篇体裁参与社会实践，在了解民意的同时，更加侧重推销方案，在一定程度上促成了这次节假日调整方案的实施。     

聚合物驱单管分注技术的应用

本文叙述了大庆油田聚合物驱非均质油层条件下进行分层注入的必要性,介绍几年来单管分注工艺的应用情况,对比分析实施效果,并预测了今后聚合物驱分层注入工艺的发展方向。     

Google Earth在成都市功能分区研究中的应用

在历经了20余年的改革发展后,成都市在基础设施建设、产业结构调整和生态环境保护等方面都取得了长足的进步,在政治经济文化发展的同时,城市的用地规模日益扩大,城市功能分区日趋复杂,人地矛盾、功能与形态分区矛盾日渐凸现,城市功能分区已经成为制约城市发展的重要因素之一.为此开展成都市功能分区的研究也愈加重要,利用Google Earth软件提供的在线浏览的高分辨率遥感图像,结合其特有的空间分析和查询功能,探讨成都市的功能区的分区及成因,并对城市功能分区的发展趋势做出预测.     

伊犁河谷地区种植业产业布局调整与优化研究——以伊宁县为例

坚持"高产、优质、高效、生态、安全"的发展方向,加快种植业产业布局调整,对于增强伊犁河谷地区农业综合生产能力、确保粮食安全及农产品的有效供给有着重要意义。伊宁县是伊犁河谷地区具有代表性的农业大县,文章以伊宁县为例,在分析伊宁县种植业产业发展现状的基础上,结合伊宁县内外农业产业化的发展需求,提出"稳定小麦,提质玉米,增加果蔬"的调整思路。采取综合比较优势指数法从效率优势、规模优势及综合优势3方面对伊宁县种植业主要农作物类型与全国同类农作物进行优势比较分析,并结合GIS软件的空间分析功能,将伊宁县划分为农业种植三大功能区,围绕伊宁县农业优势支柱产业和特色农产品规模化生产,建成优质高效、高产出率和高商品率的六大特色农产品标准化生产基地,形成万亩连片示范片和万亩示范田,促进农业生产布局区域化、生产规模化、经营一体化,满足农业的发展需求。     

产业专业化、职能专业化与城市经济增长——基于中国地级单位面板数据的研究

本文利用2003—2008年中国284个地级单位面板数据,对中国城市产业专业化和职能专业化特征进行了分析,并将职能专业化指标引入动态外部性(MAR溢出、Jacobs溢出)与城市经济增长的分析框架,考察两类专业化对知识溢出进而对城市经济的影响。研究结果表明:中国城市产业专业化和职能专业化水平均较低,但表现出不断提高的趋势;在全国样本范围内,两类专业化水平与城市经济增长均呈现出显著的非线性关系,结合中国城市发展情况来看,更倾向于支持MAR溢出;分地区分规模城市中产业专业化和职能专业化引起的MAR溢出重要性各不相同。基于回归分析的结果,本文还讨论了各类城市的最优专业化水平。     

主体功能区建设与区域利益的协调——以河北省为例

推进主体功能区建设是贯彻落实科学发展观、促进区域协调发展的重大战略举措。区域利益是客观存在的,良好的区域利益协调机制有利于区域利益的协调和主体功能区建设的顺利推进。河北省主体功能区建设中面临着区域主体不成熟、地方政府理性的有限性、区域主体参与性不强和区际间区域利益关系尚未理顺等问题,需要着力构建一个包括协调目标、协调内容、协调主体、协调程序、协调手段及实现途径等在内的完善的区域利益协调机制,并通过成立专门的协调机构、推进区域治理主体多元化、构建区别对待的政府绩效考核机制与区域利益补偿机制等途径实现区域利益的有效协调。     

Combating deceptive advertisements and labelling on food products – an exploratory study on the perceptions of teachers

People are becoming more health conscious nowadays, but most of them are not able to adopt a lifestyle with adequate physical exercise and a healthier eating pattern. Many attempt to compensate by taking ‘health foods’. Despite the recent economic recession, the functional food market is expanding rapidly in Asian countries. Recent statistics indicate a huge increase in weight loss and functional food product advertising expenditure in Hong Kong and other Asian countries. In a large scale survey conducted by the Hong Kong Consumer Council on advertisements, it was found that 85% of the medicines, health food and therapies sampled contain questionable claims and misleading messages, which was the second most problematic category of the survey. In addition, young people do not understand much about modern food processing, in particular with regard to low energy and functional foods, and they know very little about modern food marketing strategies. The situation is potentially detrimental to consumer welfare, especially to the younger generation. This study was conducted to reflect critically on implications of the issue on the health and well‐being of young people in Hong Kong. Attempts are made to explore directions for designing relevant and effective education programmes to empower young people's abilities in understanding food advertising strategies and making informed decisions on food choice. This paper begins with a critical review of the current situation with regard to Hong Kong. Then, the results of an interview survey and a questionnaire survey on pre‐service and in‐service teachers’ perception towards misleading food advertising and labelling are reported. The situations at schools are defined and problems faced by teachers in providing relevant consumer education programmes to students are identified. Finally, some prospective foci for further investigation of this important issue, with a view to developing students’ critical skills in evaluating claims offered in food advertisements, will be considered.