Weekday seasonality of stock returns: The contrary case of China

We document that Chinese stock returns exhibit early-in-the-week effects opposite-signed to those observed worldwide. The period of analysis is 2001–2016. Dominated by individual investors, Chinese stock markets offer unique out-of-sample insight regarding the source of weekday seasonality, ascribed elsewhere to institutional investors’ trading patterns. High returns to the market and to small, speculative stocks early-in-the-week pose a refuter to the mood explanation for the conventional (negative) Monday effect. A battery of tests suggests that the patterns in the Market, SMB, and RMW factors are jointly associated with Chinese individual investors whose demand is tilted towards small, speculative stocks. Our findings point to a potential role of dominant investor type in driving weekday patterns and the RMW premium.     

Forecasting dynamic return distributions based on ordered binary choice

We present a simple approach to the forecasting of conditional probability distributions of asset returns. We work with a parsimonious specification of ordered binary choice regressions that imposes a connection on sign predictability across different quantiles. The model forecasts the future conditional probability distributions of returns quite precisely when using a past indicator and a past volatility proxy as predictors. The direct benefits of the model are revealed in an empirical application to the 29 most liquid U.S. stocks. The forecast probability distribution is translated to significant economic gains in a simple trading strategy. Our approach can also be useful in many other applications in which conditional distribution forecasts are desired.     

The Way to the Top: Career Patterns of Fortune 100 CEOS

How have the CEOs of Fortune 100 companies worked their way to the top position? Are there several paths to the top, or have most present‐day CEOs moved up the ranks in a similar fashion? We examine the employment trajectories of all of the current Fortune 100 CEOs across their entire working careers to answer these questions. The analysis developed in this article is carried out in two steps. We first use sequence analysis to find the patterns that are characteristic of the career paths of these CEOs . We then apply clustering techniques to identify distinct groups of career paths that have led individuals to the uppermost management level. Our results show that the careers of the Fortune 100 CEOs have largely followed traditional career paths that are symbolized by steady progression toward more responsibility, little mobility between firms and industries, and a strong focus on general management functions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

基于政策情景的家庭乘用车能源回弹效应研究 ——来自长株潭城市群的调查数据

基于长株潭城市群的调查数据,测算在燃料消耗量为5.0L/100km情景下家庭乘用车的直接能源回弹效应,并采用二分类Logistic法分析影响家庭乘用车直接能源回弹效应的因素.结果表明:长株潭城市群家庭乘用车平均直接能源回弹效应为20%;不同居民家庭乘用车的直接能源回弹效应差别较大,存在超级节能、零回弹、部分回弹和回火效应;户主受教育水平、收入水平、购买新车意愿、车辆行驶里程、出行偏好等因素对家庭乘用车超级节能和零回弹效应影响显著.     

Career and collaboration patterns in tourism research

Research collaboration has become an important characteristic of contemporary academia and is of prime importance for the academic career opportunities of young scholars. For the purposes of this study research collaboration is a formal manifestation of intellectual collaboration in scientific research and involves the participation of two or more authors in the production of a joint publication. The paper reports the findings of a quantitative online survey sent to tourism scholars to explore their career and collaboration patterns in co-authored publications in tourism research. The results indicate that there are divergent perspectives on research collaboration and that collaboration characteristics change as scholars progress through their careers. The paper proposes a research career lifecycle to explain the patterns in tourism research collaboration.     

P2P网贷平台借款信息对投资决策的影响研究

以人人贷平台作为研究对象,通过编写程序抓取实际交易数据,构建了基于二元logistic回归方法的P2P（Peer-to-Peer）网络借贷决策模型,以研究影响投资决策的因素。该模型对13684条样本进行了是否满标的预测,其综合预测率为97%。实证结果表明,P2P平台上的借款信息对投资决策行为及是否能成功借贷的影响十分显著——利率、年龄、婚姻状态、学历、信用等级以及逾期次数与满标成功率呈正相关关系;金额、期限、申请借贷笔数与满标成功率呈负相关关系。     

实物期权在投资决策中的运用

本文通过引入实物期权的思想为投资决策评价,运用布莱克—舒尔斯和二叉树期权定价模型,给战略投资隐含的实物期权定价,使用蒙特卡罗方法来消除关键因素的不确定带来的影响。     

Segmentation and time-of-day patterns in foreign exchange markets

This paper sheds light on a puzzling pattern in spot foreign exchange markets: domestic currencies appreciate (depreciate) systematically during foreign (domestic) working hours. This phenomenon spans many years and several exchange rates, and overrides calendar effects. We argue that it is mainly due to liquidity and inventory patterns that emerge from the combination of two factors: domestic agents tend to be net buyers of foreign currency and to trade mostly in their country’s working hours. The prevalence of domestic (foreign) traders demanding the counterpart currency during domestic (foreign) working hours implies sell-price (buy-price) pressure on the domestic currency during domestic (foreign) working hours.     

Applying the method of simulated moments to estimate a small agent-based asset pricing model

The paper takes a recent agent-based asset pricing model by Manzan and Westerhoff from the literature and applies the method of simulated moments to estimate its six parameters. In selecting the moments, the focus is on the fat tails and autocorrelation patterns of the daily returns of several stock market indices and foreign exchange rates. It is argued that it may be meaningful to abandon the econometrically optimal weighting matrix in the objective function and instead invoke the moments' t-statistics in an intuitively appealing way. This modification gives rise to estimations whose moment matching, given the model's parsimony, can be largely considered to be satisfactory. Also the parameter estimates across different markets make good economic sense.