Application of multi-factor hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model in risk assessment of gas exploration

This article classified gas exploration risk on the basis of the characteristics of oil-gas exploration investment projects, which are internal systems risk and external non-systemic risk. It described each classification specifically and introduced the basic principles and mathematical model of the multi-factor hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment in detail, and then researched the conducts the risk of the gas exploration with examples.     

Environmental Valuation with Imperfect Information The Case of the Random Utility Model

This paper considers welfare analysis with therandom utility model (RUM) when perceptions ofenvironmental quality differ from objectivemeasures of environmental quality. Environmental quality is assumed to be anexperience good, so that while perceptions ofquality determine choices, ex postutility is determined by objective quality. Given this assumption, I derive a measure ofthe welfare impact of changes in environmentalquality, and I show how this new welfaremeasure differs from the traditional welfaremeasure developed by Hanemann (1982). This newwelfare measure provides an approach tomeasuring the value of information aboutenvironmental quality within the framework ofthe random utility model.     

Bayesian MCMC Mapping of Quantitative Trait Loci in a Half-sib Design: a Graphical Model Perspective

Graphical models provide a powerful and flexible approach to the analysis of complex problems in genetics. While task-specific software may be extremely efficient for any particular analysis, it is often difficult to adapt to new computational challenges. By viewing these genetic applications in a more general framework, many problems can be handled by essentially the same software. This is advantageous in an area where fast methodological development is essential. Once a method has been fully developed and tested, problem-specific software may then be required. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the potential use of a graphical model approach to genetic analyses by taking a very simple and well-understood problem by way of example.     

What＇s So Special about China＇s Exports？ A Comment

Dani Rodrik argues that China's exports are unusually sophisticated for a country at its income level. He also claims that China's export sophistication reflects the government's successful industrial policy and has been instrumental in the recent acceleration of its economic growth. Although Rodrik's interpretation of China's economic growth is broadly correct, the accuracy of his empirical analysis is questionable. This note identifies several problems regarding the “export sophistication” index used in his empirical work and casts doubt on his analysis.     

现代物流产业国际竞争力生成模型的构建研究

通过对国际竞争力相关理论和因素的分析,构建了现代物流产业国际竞争力生成模型,最后并对我国现代物流产业国际竞争力的形成机制进行了分析.最后提出了进一步提升我国现代物流产业国际竞争力的措施.     

区域系统主导产业决策分析中的准则层选择研究

当站在复杂性科学的高度来看待层次分析法时,可以将层次分析法归为一种基于个体属性的思维方法,其决策过程不具有整体思维,其得到的方案容易导致不和谐性。而现实中我们所分析的问题往往具有系统结构,这时我们应该超越个体属性的思维方法。本文在比较了社会网络分析和层次分析法的基础上,提出了依存属性这一概念,论述了基于依存属性的决策过程,这是对层次分析法的一种推广。     

基于方法分析的企业精细管理思想

本文认为,精细管理是企业管理走向科学化的必然要求,是科学管理发展到一定阶段的产物,是对管理实践的科学性概括和总结,是对企业管理创新的一个系统化梳理。精细管理具有系统化特征、理论与技术高度综合性特征、动态管理特征、实践性和全员参与特征;精细管理的闭路循环系统具有对应性,能够找到企业的每一个部门或个人的位置和相应的职责;精细管理在闭路循环系统中可以明确知道可能的效果倾向。文章提出,企业在实施精细管理的过程中,应适应变化的市场环境,把握精细管理的真正内涵;树立正确的企业精细管理理念,持之以恒;重构企业科学管理体系,走全员参与的精细管理之路。     

蜜月游市场特征的相关与回归分析——针对北京常住居民蜜月游市场

在我国,蜜月游市场发展迅猛,潜力巨大,收益率颇高.特别值得注意的是,我们调研发现:高收入者与非高收入者共享蜜月游这一高端旅游产品.为此我们进行了相关的定量分析,以进一步研究其发展脉络,揭示其变动趋势,为政府主管部门及相关旅游企业提供决策依据.     

开放式基金投资风格浅析

近年来，开放式基金在我国发展极为迅速，在数量不断增加的同时，呈现出的风格日趋多样化。面对种类繁多的开放式基金，投资者很难分清哪种投资风格更适合自己的风险偏好，因而投资风格逐渐成为基金最重要的识别系统之一。本文首先介绍了开放式基金的定义，其次，根据财务指标对开放式基金的投资风格进行分类并描述不同类型基金的特点。最后分析了基金最终风格出现趋同的原因。     

Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.