新贸易保护主义的演变趋势及其影响因素

新贸易保护主义思潮最早出现于20世纪70年代的美国,于20世纪80年代全面兴起并形成一股浪潮迅速席卷全球。进入21世纪前后,新贸易保护主义本身从形式到内容又发生了相当明显的变化,并继续沿着一定的趋势演变。新贸易保护主义的演变有着深刻的政治经济背景,同时,一些贸易理论流派和学术主张也为新贸易保护主义的演变提供了理论渊源和动力。在未来可以预见的一段时间内,发达国家和发展中国家之间的贸易摩擦和纠纷将会以较高的频率发生。在策略上主动、积极地运用多边贸易体制所允许的合法手段保护自己特定的产业,同时在战略上将目前的比较优势转变为竞争优势是我国应对目前新贸易保护主义的基本方略。     

The impacts of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the capital adequacy ratio: evidence from Islamic banks

The study investigates the relationship between the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and different bank-specific and macroeconomic variables for 28 Islamic banks. We document that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between the CAR and the bank-specific and macroeconomic variables. In particular, bank-specific variables such as ROA, ROE, leverage, credit risk and size show a strong association with the CAR, while on the macroeconomic side, inflation, market capitalization and exchange rate have an impact on the average Islamic bank in our sample study. Furthermore, we run another model (equity to assets ratio) as dependent, with similar control variables, and the results reveal that, except for inflation, all the variables that have a significant effect on the CAR also influence the equity to assets ratio.     

基于结构方程的北京居民幸福指数因素分析

影响人们幸福感的因素是众多的，有可以直接观察和测量的显变量，也有不易直接观测和测量的隐变量。本文利用结构方程模型，通过路径分析，测定了影响北京市居民幸福感的五个隐变量及其影响强度，分别为身心健康（0．53）、物质条件（0．509）、家庭生活（0．298）、社会幸福感（0．143）和自我价值的实现（0．014）。     

Estimating structural equation models with non-normal variables by using transformations

We discuss structural equation models for non-normal variables. In this situation the maximum likelihood and the generalized least-squares estimates of the model parameters can give incorrect estimates of the standard errors and the associated goodness-of-fit chi-squared statistics. If the sample size is not large, for instance smaller than about 1000, asymptotic distribution-free estimation methods are also not applicable. This paper assumes that the observed variables are transformed to normally distributed variables. The non-normally distributed variables are transformed with a Box–Cox function. Estimation of the model parameters and the transformation parameters is done by the maximum likelihood method. Furthermore, the test statistics (i.e. standard deviations) of these parameters are derived. This makes it possible to show the importance of the transformations. Finally, an empirical example is presented.     

A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis of International Reserves

Using data from more than 100 economies for the period of 1975 to 2005, we conduct an extensive empirical analysis of the determinants of international reserve holdings. Four groups of determinants, namely, traditional macro variables, financial variables, institutional variables, and dummy variables that control for individual economies’ characteristics are considered. We find that the relationship between international reserves and their determinants is significantly different between developed and developing economies and is not stable over time. The estimation results indicate that, especially during the recent period, a developed economy tends to hold a lower level of international reserves than a developing one. Furthermore, there is only limited evidence that East Asian economies including China and Japan are accumulating an excessive amount of international reserves.     

宏观经济与股票价格波动之间的关系研究

利用Copula模型,研究宏观经济变量与上证股指收益率之间的相关关系,在选择合适的边缘分布函数的基础上,分别建立了常相关的二元正态Copula函数、t—Copula函数、FrankCopula函数、ClaytonCopula函数以及Gum—belCopula函数模型,并且利用欧氏距离方法选择出最佳拟合Copula模型。选取2001年1月至2011年12月的月度数据作为处理对象,并利用最佳拟合模型分析宏观经济变量与上证股指收益率间相关关系及相关结构,从而揭示了中国宏观经济与股票市场之间的相关性。     

Communicating production outcomes as gains or losses,operator skill and their effects on safety-related violations in a simulated production context

In this study, violation-producing conditions from an organizational and individual point of view are investigated. In concrete terms, framing effects of production outcome displays in relation to production goals, the risk of a technical accident, as well as person-related variables and their impact on violations are investigated based on the theoretical assumptions of prospect theory and risk-taking. It is assumed that violations are more likely when performance is below the aspiration level associated with an anticipated loss. A 2?×?3 factorial experimental design (n?=?118) was selected in accordance with the ‘Asian Disease’ decision scenario in the form of a computer-simulated task environment Simulation Waste Water Treatment. Participants acted out the role of a production supervisor running a plant. Experimental conditions were (1) the framing of individual performance outcomes in relation to the production goals in terms of losses or gains, and (2) the risk (20, 35, and 5%) with which an accident (a deflagration) might occur through using a corner-cutting procedure. A significant main effect of the framing conditions and no effect of risk conditions or interaction effect emerged. An additional path analysis shows the influence of risky decision-making and acquired skills in terms of knowledge of the safety-related procedure on a violation. In summary, violations are strongly affected by (a) framing effects of production outcomes when the performance is below the aspiration level and (b) person-related variables, in particular risky decision-making and skill. Results strongly emphasize that we found violation-producing conditions over and above what has so far been proposed and give rise to our claim that communicating production outcomes as gains and the increase of skill increases the likelihood of compliance with safety-related procedures.     

有关韩国不动产周期分析——使用多元回归模型的计量分析(英文)

本文研究了经济环境的波动如何影响韩国不动产周期变化。首先,本文界定了什么是不动产周期。研究了一些对不动产市场影响最大的经济变量。运用了多元线性回归模型和时间序列模型。本文收集了2000年一月至2013年一月的数据。运用计量分析方法,本文达成了一个结论,即上述经济变量与不动产周期之间有着显著的关系。     

会计实验研究对额外变量的控制

实验研究是对相关会计行为进行研究的主要方法之一.通过对变量之间因果关系的揭示,能够充分说明会计行为、会计判断的内在规律.但在研究中,不仅存在着可由实验者控制的能够对被试反应产生影响的变量,还有一些不用于研究目的却也会对被试反应产生影响的变量,即为额外变量,需要对其进行消除或控制.可以认为,会计实验研究的成败与研究者对额外变量的控制效果密切相关.本文通过对会计实验研究中额外变量的不同控制方法进行分析和说明,使实验研究者可以明确如何在会计相关研究中对额外变量进行有效控制,进而有效提高实验的效度.     

Engineering robust instruments for GMM estimation of panel data regression models with errors in variables: a note

Econometricians have long recognized the need to account in some way for measurement errors, specification errors and endogeneity to ensure that the ordinary least squares estimator is consistent. This article introduces a new generalized method of moments estimator that relies on robust instruments to estimate panel data regression models containing errors in variables. We show how this GMM approach can be generalized for the panel data framework using higher moments and cumulants as instruments. The new instruments, engineered for greater robustness, are proposed to tackle the pervasive problem of weak instruments.